金新制药的主要推荐逻辑基于三点。首先是其主业的企稳回升。在 2020 年和 2021 年医药集采最为激烈时，金新制药作为传统仿制药企业，许多品种如瑞 舒伐他汀、匹伐他汀、舍曲林等已完成集采。公司通过拓展院外市场，实现了 收入和利润的稳定增长。2024 年，公司扣非归母净利润约为 6.3 亿元，未来 几年仍有望实现双位数增长。今年（2025 年），预计扣非净利润可达 7 亿元， 总利润约 8 亿元，对应市值支撑在 100-120 亿元。 第二点是蒂达西尼，这是 一款从海外引进的创新失眠药物，在 2024 年 11 月成功进入医保，其价格远 超市场同类仿制药。今年（2025 年）放量迅速，预计可达到 1.8-2 亿元，而 市场预期仅为 5-8 亿元。未来有望突破 20 亿销售额，对应市值可达 60 亿。 第三点是口服 LPA 小分子研发进度领先全球，目前正在与海外 MNC 进行深度 谈判。如果按恒瑞交易估值八折计算，其 BD 交易估值至少在 15-20 亿美元， 对应市值约 100 亿。因此，如果这三步逻辑逐步兑现，金新制药市值有望达到 300 亿。 蒂达西尼在市场中的表现如何？ 京新药业 20250926 摘要 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing prevalence of depression in China, with approximately 95 million individuals affected, leading to a booming market for antidepressant medications [5][12][18] - The demand for antidepressants has surged, with sales in public medical institutions exceeding 9.1 billion yuan in the previous year, marking a 6% year-on-year increase [5][7] - The market for antidepressants is becoming increasingly competitive, with numerous domestic pharmaceutical companies entering the space, particularly in the production of generic drugs [13][20] Market Dynamics - The rise in depression cases has created a vibrant pharmaceutical market, with companies like Hansoh Pharmaceutical and Jingwei Pharmaceutical achieving significant sales figures [7][12] - The sales of antidepressants in public hospitals have seen a drastic shift, with domestic companies gaining market share due to price reductions and increased competition [22][24] - The introduction of centralized procurement has led to a significant drop in drug prices, making antidepressants more accessible to patients [19][20][22] Industry Challenges - Despite the growing market, the high cost of psychological therapy remains a barrier for many patients, leading to a preference for medication over therapy [26][27] - The perception of antidepressants as a long-term necessity poses challenges for patient management, with many experiencing withdrawal symptoms when discontinuing medication [26][27] - The industry faces scrutiny over the quality of psychological counseling services, which can vary significantly, impacting patient experiences and outcomes [26][27]

以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 连抗抑郁药都有软广了，麦草感叹，"这个世界真是疯了"。 刷到那条笔记时，她以为是病友间的寻常分享，看完才回过味来，是某喷剂的广告。"抗抑郁症跟治感冒不 一样，药不能乱吃。"麦草说，打着科普的幌子推荐可能会误导病人。 但面对越冒越多的抗抑郁药广告，麦草也表示能理解。 她去健身房运动疗愈，10个人里3个人是病友，运动场秒变"病友交流会"；去医院复诊，普通号也得靠抢， 看诊推迟一小时是常态，候诊厅里黑压压坐满了等待的人。 甚至重性精神疾病患者也在增多，麦草住院期间，周围几乎没有空床位，医生们总是行色匆匆，护士更是 人手紧张，"四五个人要管七十多个病人"。 数据显示，中国抑郁障碍总人数已达到9500万，其中登记在册的患者约3800万人（2023年），庞大的患病 人群催生了一个躁动的药品市场。 打开线上购物平台，常见抗抑郁药物销量以十万为单位，部分产品30天内种草飙升5倍。国内公立医疗机构 终端抗抑郁化药销售额，也在去年创下超91亿元新高，同比增长6%。 热切需求下，手握阿戈美拉汀片的翰森制药，跻身抗抑郁化药一级集团TOP3；京卫制药凭艾司西酞 ...

以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 本文来自微信公众号： 表外表里 ，作者：刘钰民，编辑：付晓玲、曹宾玲，数据支持：洞见数据研 究院，题图来自：AI生成 连抗抑郁药都有软广了，麦草感叹，"这个世界真是疯了"。 刷到那条笔记时，她以为是病友间的寻常分享，看完才回过味来，是某喷剂的广告。"抗抑郁症跟治 感冒不一样，药不能乱吃。"麦草说，打着科普的幌子推荐可能会误导病人。 甚至重性精神疾病患者也在增多，麦草住院期间，周围几乎没有空床位，医生们总是行色匆匆，护士 更是人手紧张，"四五个人要管七十多个病人"。 她去健身房运动疗愈，10个人里3个人是病友，运动场秒变"病友交流会"；去医院复诊，普通号也得 靠抢，看诊推迟一小时是常态，候诊厅里黑压压坐满了等待的人。 数据显示，中国抑郁障碍总人数已达到9500万，其中登记在册的患者约3800万人 （2023年） ，庞大 的患病人群催生了一个躁动的药品市场。 打开线上购物平台，常见抗抑郁药物销量以十万为单位，部分产品30天内种草飙升5倍。国内公立医 疗机构终端抗抑郁化药销售额，也在去年创下超91亿元新高，同比增长6%。 热切需求下，手握阿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing market for antidepressant medications in China, driven by an increasing number of patients suffering from depression and the rising acceptance of mental health treatment [5][14][28]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The total number of individuals with depression in China has reached 95 million, with approximately 38 million registered patients as of 2023, leading to a booming pharmaceutical market [6][7]. - Sales of antidepressant medications in public medical institutions reached a record high of over 9.1 billion yuan in the previous year, marking a 6% year-on-year growth [6]. - The demand for antidepressants has led to significant sales increases for companies like Hansoh Pharmaceutical, which ranks among the top three in the antidepressant market, and Green Leaf Pharmaceutical, whose new drug saw a 99.9% sales surge [7][8]. Group 2: Changing Perceptions and Treatment - There is a noticeable shift in societal attitudes towards mental health, with more individuals, especially the younger generation, actively seeking treatment for depression [14][11]. - The stigma surrounding mental health issues is gradually diminishing, allowing for greater awareness and acceptance of conditions like depression [14][11]. - The article highlights the importance of early detection and intervention in managing depression, although many patients still face barriers to seeking help [11][14]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The number of companies producing generic antidepressants has increased significantly, with over 40 generic antidepressants approved for sale this year alone [15][16]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with domestic companies aggressively entering the market, leading to price reductions for antidepressant medications [25][28]. - The introduction of centralized procurement has further driven down prices, making medications more accessible to patients [26][28]. Group 4: Challenges in Treatment - Despite the growing market, many patients still struggle with the high costs of original branded medications, which can consume a significant portion of their income [21][22]. - The article notes that the development of new antidepressants is slow due to high research and development barriers, leading to a relatively stable market for existing medications [22][24]. - The perception of antidepressants as "addictive" is discussed, with experts clarifying that withdrawal symptoms are often misinterpreted as addiction [33][34]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that as more patients seek treatment and the market continues to evolve, the demand for antidepressants will likely remain strong, despite current market fluctuations [29][30]. - The ongoing changes in pricing and market dynamics may lead to a more sustainable and accessible treatment landscape for patients suffering from depression [28][29].

连抗抑郁药都有软广了，麦草感叹，"这个世界真是疯了"。 热切需求下，手握阿戈美拉汀片的翰森制药，跻身抗抑郁化药一级集团TOP3；京卫制药凭艾司西酞普兰片，狂揽7亿销售额；绿叶制药的独家新药盐酸托 鲁地文拉法辛缓释片，销量暴涨99.9%。 这条关乎生命的赛道，同样也是一门炽热而残酷的生意。 刷到那条笔记时，她以为是病友间的寻常分享，看完才回过味来，是某喷剂的广告。"抗抑郁症跟治感冒不一样，药不能乱吃。"麦草说，打着科普的幌子 推荐可能会误导病人。 但面对越冒越多的抗抑郁药广告，麦草也表示能理解。 她去健身房运动疗愈，10个人里3个人是病友，运动场秒变"病友交流会"；去医院复诊，普通号也得靠抢，看诊推迟一小时是常态，候诊厅里黑压压坐满 了等待的人。 甚至重性精神疾病患者也在增多，麦草住院期间，周围几乎没有空床位，医生们总是行色匆匆，护士更是人手紧张，"四五个人要管七十多个病人"。 数据显示，中国抑郁障碍总人数已达到9500万，其中登记在册的患者约3800万人（2023年），庞大的患病人群催生了一个躁动的药品市场。 打开线上购物平台，常见抗抑郁药物销量以十万为单位，部分产品30天内种草飙升5倍。国内公立医疗机构终端 ...

Core Viewpoint - AstraZeneca has announced a complete withdrawal from the CNS (Central Nervous System) field, terminating multiple pipeline projects, marking a significant strategic decision following its $80 billion revenue target announcement [1][2]. Group 1: AstraZeneca's Strategic Decision - The decision to exit the CNS field reflects the high difficulty of product development in this area and the pressure to achieve short-term KPIs, leading the company to focus on more certain high-revenue products like weight loss drugs and ADCs [2][4]. - The withdrawal indicates a significant loss of research investment and time, as the CNS field has seen mixed results in recent years, with other major companies like Amgen, Pfizer, and Sanofi also abandoning CNS projects [2][8]. Group 2: CNS Market Overview - The CNS market is considered the third-largest disease market, with a strong necessity for drug control and long medication cycles for conditions such as depression, schizophrenia, Parkinson's, and Alzheimer's [2][3]. - Despite recent setbacks, there have been notable breakthroughs in the CNS field, including advancements in Alzheimer's treatments and new mechanisms for schizophrenia drugs, indicating potential for future growth [7][12]. Group 3: Challenges in CNS Drug Development - CNS drug development faces significant challenges, including limited understanding of brain mechanisms, the blood-brain barrier, and subjective symptom assessment, leading to lower approval rates compared to non-CNS drugs [4][5]. - The slow iteration of drugs in the CNS field means that any successful product can enjoy a longer lifecycle with less competition, which has allowed smaller companies to establish themselves [5][12]. Group 4: Domestic CNS Players - The domestic CNS drug market in China is projected to grow from approximately $16.9 billion in 2022 to $31.1 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 8%, outpacing global growth [12][13]. - Local companies are increasingly focusing on innovative CNS drugs, with several firms transitioning from generics to original drug development, leveraging improved research infrastructure and market demand [13][14].