Core Insights - The article discusses the current situation of peanut and corn harvesting in Henan province, highlighting the impact of weather conditions on crop quality and market dynamics [1][2][5] Group 1: Harvesting and Market Conditions - Farmers in Henan are actively selling their harvested peanuts and corn due to unfavorable market conditions and weather impacts, with many opting for immediate sales rather than storage [2][3] - The quality of peanuts has been affected by recent weather, with some crops showing signs of mold and sprouting, leading to a decline in market prices [2][5] - The overall planting area for peanuts in Henan has increased by approximately 10% this year, despite adverse weather conditions [5] Group 2: Trade and Supply Chain Dynamics - Peanut processing plants and traders are actively purchasing peanuts from farmers, with a significant increase in the number of trucks delivering peanuts to processing facilities [4][6] - The market for peanut oil and food-grade peanuts is currently favorable for processors, who are looking to stock up on raw materials due to lower prices [4][6] - The supply-demand relationship for peanuts is becoming more relaxed as the harvest concludes, leading to a decrease in prices for both oil-grade and food-grade peanuts [7][8] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The purchase prices for peanuts in Henan have dropped significantly, with some grades falling to around 4 yuan per jin, while lower-quality peanuts are being bought for less than 3 yuan per jin [7][8] - The influx of low-priced peanuts from Henan is affecting market activity in Northeast China, where trading volumes are declining and prices are under pressure [9] - There is a cautious outlook for peanut futures, with expectations of further price declines due to reduced demand from the food industry and a lack of interest from traders in entering the market [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is under pressure due to high raw material costs, but there is a trend of marginal improvement [6] - The company has shown a notable performance in new sales channels, particularly in membership and bulk stores, contributing to revenue growth despite overall revenue decline [6] - The company is a leading player in the leisure snack industry in China, with significant market share in the seed industry and growth potential in the nut segment [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 45.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.68 billion yuan, down 73.17% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 17.49 billion yuan, a decline of 5.91% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.79 billion yuan, down 72.58% year-on-year [4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 24.52%, a decrease of 8.59 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to high prices of sunflower seeds and nuts [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 68.50 billion yuan, 73.43 billion yuan, and 77.75 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -4%, +7%, and +6% respectively [6] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.20 billion yuan, 6.98 billion yuan, and 8.17 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -62%, +118%, and +17% respectively [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are 0.63 yuan, 1.38 yuan, and 1.61 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the return of its relevant broad market benchmark [20]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight year-on-year decline in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, with total operating revenue of RMB 4.50 billion, down 5.4% year-on-year, and a significant drop in net profit attributable to owners, which fell by 73.2% to RMB 170 million [2][8]. - The gross profit margin for the first nine months was 21.9%, contracting by 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, but the gross margin for 3Q25 showed a sequential improvement to 24.5% [2][9]. - The company has set a clear revenue growth target of 10%-15% for the new fiscal year, with specific growth targets for sunflower seeds and nuts [4][11]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of RMB 4.50 billion, a decrease of 5.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to owners of RMB 170 million, down 73.2% year-on-year [2][8]. - The gross profit margin for the first nine months was 21.9%, down 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for 3Q25 was 24.5%, showing a sequential increase [2][9]. - The effective tax rate for the first nine months was 26.6%, up from 21.2% in the prior year period [2][8]. Revenue Structure and Product Performance - In 3Q25, the revenue from the sunflower seed business declined due to proactive control of sales, while the nut business grew by approximately 10%-20%, benefiting from strong performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival [3][9]. - The management indicated that the gross margin for nuts decreased by over 10 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising prices of key raw materials [3][9]. Raw Material Costs and Future Outlook - Procurement prices for sunflower seeds have decreased compared to the same period in 2024, which is expected to benefit gross margins in 4Q25 and FY2026 [4][10]. - The company plans to enhance long-term control over core raw materials by expanding contract farming [10]. New Fiscal Year Plan - The company aims for sales revenue growth of 10%-15% for the period from July 2025 to June 2026, with specific targets for sunflower seeds and nuts [4][11]. - New product initiatives include a focus on konjac, with a target scale of RMB 50-100 million [4][11]. Channel Development - The traditional Key Account (KA) channel's contribution to sales has decreased from 40% to 35%, while the Snack Discount channel has seen rapid growth [5][12]. - Membership stores have performed well, with significant sales growth in the Hema channel [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing significant growth in its snack wholesale and membership store channels, with a notable increase in sales and new product launches tailored for these markets [1][2]. Group 1: Channel Expansion - The snack wholesale channel's sales exceeded 90 million yuan in September, indicating rapid growth [1]. - The company has launched new products, such as amber walnut kernels, in collaboration with Sam's Club, and plans to introduce more products in the future [1]. - Collaborations with Hema have led to the creation of customized products, including walnut milk and flavored nuts, contributing to strong sales growth in the third quarter [1]. Group 2: E-commerce and Profitability - The gross margin for the e-commerce channel has improved in the first three quarters, although it remains low due to raw material costs [2]. - The e-commerce channel is viewed as a critical platform for brand promotion, new product incubation, and consumer interaction [2]. - The company aims to enhance sales and operational quality by optimizing product structure, launching new products, increasing Douyin live streaming, and strengthening content marketing [2]. Group 3: International Market Development - The company has seen growth in its overseas market, primarily through sunflower seed products, with plans to promote nuts, crispy potato chips, and konjac snacks [2]. - In mature markets like Southeast Asia, the focus is on expanding product categories, while in potential markets like the Middle East, the company will collaborate with partners for growth [2]. Group 4: Product Performance - The company reports strong growth in its whole nut products and peanuts, with potential in cilantro-flavored melon seeds and ongoing development of fresh-cut potato strips and konjac products [2]. - The company is also preparing new ice cream products and expanding distribution channels [2]. - A partnership model is being employed to empower partners for independent operation and decision-making, enhancing market competitiveness [2].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue was 7.131 billion yuan, with a significant gap from the target of 10 billion yuan set for 2020 [4] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin dropped to 19.5%, a decrease of 10.97 percentage points year-on-year [4][27] - The revenue in Q1 2025 decreased by 13.7% compared to the previous year, attributed to rising sunflower seed costs and the timing of the Spring Festival [27][100] Group 2: Product Development and Innovation - The company plans to increase investment in R&D, focusing on raw material varieties, process improvements, and new product development [3][4] - In 2024, the R&D expense ratio was only 1%, significantly lower than competitors like Three Squirrels [4][23] - New product launches include flavored nuts, fresh-cut fries, and ice cream products, with a focus on health and nutrition trends [20][21][24] Group 3: Market Strategy and Expansion - The company aims to diversify its product offerings beyond sunflower seeds and nuts, exploring functional foods and healthy snacks [2][3] - Overseas revenue accounted for 7.98% of total revenue in 2024, primarily from Southeast Asia, with plans to expand into the European and American markets [4][5] - The company is enhancing its digital marketing efforts, particularly on platforms like Douyin, to engage younger consumers [5][21] Group 4: Supply Chain and Cost Management - The company has faced challenges with rising raw material costs, particularly for sunflower seeds, and is optimizing its procurement strategy [4][27] - Inventory levels increased by 22.9% year-on-year in 2024, indicating potential issues with channel sales [4] - The company is implementing long-term procurement agreements to stabilize raw material prices [4][5] Group 5: Shareholder Engagement and Stock Performance - The company has initiated a share buyback plan, with 944,592 shares repurchased for approximately 25.28 million yuan as of April 30, 2025 [13][27] - Despite ongoing buyback efforts, the stock price has continued to decline, raising concerns among investors [4][27] - The management is focused on improving investor confidence through strategic initiatives and transparent communication [4][27]