Core Viewpoint - The recent promotional activities during the "618" shopping festival have raised concerns about the pricing system of high-end liquor, particularly Moutai, but market research indicates that the actual transaction prices remain stable within a reasonable range [2][3]. Pricing Stability - The price of 53-degree 500ml Moutai has shown slight fluctuations but generally remains stable, with current prices reported between 2000 to 2100 yuan per bottle and 2100 to 2200 yuan per box, reflecting a slight decrease compared to the same period last year [3]. - Distributors believe that the recent price fluctuations are normal market adjustments, and the overall market for Moutai remains stable, with expectations for improvement in the second half of the year [3][4]. Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The primary consumer demographic for Moutai has shifted, with private business owners now making up a larger portion of the customer base, and consumption is primarily driven by business and family gatherings [5][6]. - The demand for Moutai remains robust, with high opening rates for bottles, particularly in social settings such as banquets and celebrations [5][6]. Brand Value and Market Position - Moutai's brand value is supported by its strong market presence and consumer loyalty, with distributors emphasizing the importance of quality control and cultural engagement in maintaining brand strength [7][9]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix, including affordable options like Moutai Welcoming Wine and Moutai Prince Wine, to adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic conditions [9][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that Moutai's prices will remain stable in the short term, with potential for slight increases during peak demand seasons [4]. - The company is expected to leverage its strong brand and quality to navigate through industry adjustments, maintaining its pricing power in the high-end liquor market [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company is implementing advanced anti-counterfeiting technology and traceability features to protect its brand reputation and consumer rights in response to the increasing threat of counterfeit products [1][2][3]. Group 1: Anti-Counterfeiting Measures - The new anti-counterfeiting labels have been applied to products such as Moutai Prince Wine and Moutai Welcoming Wine, with plans for gradual expansion to other Moutai products [2][3]. - The upgraded labels feature a unique variable texture security line, a metallic effect area with animated deformation, and randomly distributed red and blue fibers that exhibit distinct colors under UV light [2][3]. Group 2: Traceability Features - A new QR code traceability function has been introduced, allowing consumers to verify product authenticity easily through the "i Moutai" app [3]. - The traceability process involves scanning the QR code on the product label to access product information, enhancing consumer trust and confidence [3]. Group 3: Brand Protection Efforts - The company emphasizes its commitment to brand integrity and consumer protection by investing in anti-counterfeiting research and intellectual property protection [3]. - Following a recent incident where counterfeit products were mistakenly identified as genuine, the company acknowledged weaknesses in its product authentication process and is taking steps to improve its management systems [4][5].

Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 510.2 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 254.0 billion yuan, up 16.2% [7] - For the full year 2024, total revenue reached 1,741.4 billion yuan, an increase of 15.7%, with a net profit of 862.3 billion yuan, up 15.4% [7] - The company expects steady growth in 2025, with projected revenue growth of 9% [9] Revenue Summary - Q4 2024 revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor grew by 13.9% and 5.1% respectively, with Moutai liquor accounting for 89.4% of total liquor revenue [7] - For the full year 2024, Moutai liquor and series liquor revenues increased by 15.3% and 19.7% respectively [7] - The company’s direct sales and wholesale revenue in Q4 2024 grew by 8.7% and 16.8% respectively [7] Profitability Summary - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 92.9%, slightly up from the previous year, while the annual gross margin was 91.9% [7] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 52.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase [7] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 1,901.3 billion yuan, 2,050.4 billion yuan, and 2,183.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 7.8%, and 6.5% [9][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 939.4 billion yuan, 1,020.8 billion yuan, and 1,091.2 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 8.9%, 8.7%, and 6.9% [9][11]