证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 服装家纺 中报超预期，期待奥运为代表的专业资源发力 ——李宁点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 25 中报：跑步、综训继续领跑，费用控制良好带动利润表现超预期 25H1 公司零售流水同比+2%，其中跑步 同比+15%、综训同比+15%，篮球 同比-20%，休闲同比-7%，跑步与综训继续领跑。 25H1 报表收入 148.2 亿（同比+3.3%），其中电商增长 7.4%继续领跑，批发 收入增长 4.5%（剔除专业渠道发货下降小单位数），直营收入下降 3.4%。 25H1 毛利率 50.0%（同比-0.4pp），来自 DTC 占比下降、直营折扣加深；销 售费用率 29.0%（同比-1.2pp），是利润超预期的主要来源，费用率下降与渠道效 率优化、直营占比降低有关；广宣投入增加在上半年还未明显体现（仅从 12.5 亿到 13.4 亿），预计奥运相关费用对利润影响在下半年较为明显；管理费用率 5.2%（同比+0.5pp），增加与凯胜商誉减值 7239 万元有关；其他收入及收益 9390 万元，去年同期 1.8 亿，主要与投资性房地产减值 1.06 亿有关，营业利润 24.4 亿（+1.5%），营业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's retail performance in Q2 2025 shows a slowdown in growth, with challenges in both offline and online channels, while the company is increasing marketing investments to boost brand visibility and sales potential [2][3][6]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, Li Ning's overall retail revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) experienced low single-digit growth year-on-year, indicating a noticeable slowdown compared to Q1 [3]. - The offline direct sales channel saw a mid-single-digit decline, while the wholesale channel achieved low single-digit growth; online channels recorded median growth but at a reduced pace compared to Q1 [3][4]. - As of June 30, 2025, the number of retail points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) was 6,099, reflecting a net decrease of 19 points in the first half of the year [3][4]. Group 2: Inventory Management - Inventory management emerged as a positive aspect for Li Ning, with the inventory-to-sales ratio returning to a healthy level by the end of Q2 2025, despite increased promotional activities [4][5]. Group 3: Marketing Strategy - Li Ning is betting on a high-intensity marketing campaign, including a strategic partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee and signing NBA player Yang Hanshen, to enhance brand exposure and influence [6][7]. - The partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee is expected to provide a platform for brand image enhancement during major international events, while the collaboration with Yang Hanshen aims to drive sales through limited product launches [6][7]. Group 4: Long-term Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product matrix and channel efficiency for long-term growth, with an emphasis on core categories like running and basketball, which are expected to see high single-digit growth [8]. - Li Ning is adjusting its direct sales strategy, having significantly reduced the number of direct stores in 2024, but the pace of closures has slowed in 2025, indicating a shift towards enhancing overall channel efficiency [8]. Group 5: Market Outlook - There is a divergence in market sentiment regarding Li Ning's strategy of sacrificing short-term margins for long-term growth, with some analysts maintaining a positive outlook while others adopt a cautious stance [9]. - Investors are particularly interested in whether Li Ning can leverage its marketing efforts in the second half of the year to achieve revenue recovery and if product innovations can translate into tangible sales growth [9].

Group 1: Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit revenue growth year-on-year, with offline channels experiencing low single-digit revenue decline, while e-commerce channels saw medium single-digit growth [1] - The company net reduced 18 stores in the first half of the year, with a net decrease of 19 retail stores and an increase of 1 wholesale store [1] - Overall, the company's Q2 performance remained relatively stable despite external environmental disturbances [1] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - The company became a partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee, enhancing its product matrix and brand image through participation in international events, including the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics and the 2026 Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics [1] - The company has begun upgrading its offline store displays to include Olympic-themed elements and launched the "Glory Series" inspired by championship honors [1] Group 3: Sports Resource Development - Chinese player Yang Hanshen was selected 16th overall in the 2025 NBA Draft by the Portland Trail Blazers, becoming the third Chinese player to be a first-round pick [2] - Yang's success and performance in the NBA Summer League are expected to boost the sales of basketball-related products associated with the company [2] - The long-term impact of Yang's influence is anticipated to improve the popularity of basketball in China, thereby enhancing overall sales of basketball products [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Rating - The company focuses on a "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" development strategy, continuously investing in R&D to enhance core technologies in footwear and apparel [3] - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.645 billion, 2.846 billion, and 3.104 billion yuan respectively [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its strong brand position, product development capabilities, and marketing strength in the sports apparel sector [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - Increased marketing investment is expected to gradually catalyze performance growth through sports resources [5] - The company has become a partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee, which is anticipated to enhance its product matrix and brand image [7] - The signing of player Yang Hanshen, who was selected in the first round of the NBA draft, is expected to boost the popularity of the company's basketball-related products [7] - The company is focusing on a "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" development strategy, which is expected to drive long-term growth [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 27,598.49 million RMB - 2024: 28,675.64 million RMB - 2025E: 29,026.63 million RMB - 2026E: 30,765.67 million RMB - 2027E: 32,844.70 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 6.96% in 2023, 3.90% in 2024, 1.22% in 2025, 5.99% in 2026, and 6.76% in 2027 [6] - Projected net profit attributable to the parent company is as follows: - 2023: 3,186.91 million RMB - 2024: 3,012.92 million RMB - 2025E: 2,644.93 million RMB - 2026E: 2,846.01 million RMB - 2027E: 3,103.86 million RMB - The expected net profit growth rates are -21.58% in 2023, -5.46% in 2024, -12.21% in 2025, 7.60% in 2026, and 9.06% in 2027 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's Q2 revenue growth is slightly slower than Q1 but meets expectations, with a small single-digit increase across all platforms [1] - The company has signed a formal agreement with the Chinese Olympic Committee, becoming the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic team from 2025 to 2028, with marketing efforts expected to ramp up starting in May [3] - The company anticipates increased resource investment in professional research and sports sponsorships, aiming for long-term positioning in the sports market [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 28.87 billion, 30.32 billion, and 31.75 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.7%, 5.0%, and 4.7% respectively [4] - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 2.36 billion, 2.81 billion, and 3.22 billion CNY, with a significant drop of 22% in 2025 followed by recoveries of 19% and 15% in the subsequent years [4] Product Performance - In Q2, the running and cross-training categories continue to lead with high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a 20% decline [2] - The company is expected to gradually enrich its product offerings related to basketball, especially with the promotion of the "Yushua" series shoes following Yang Hansheng's selection for the NBA [2] Marketing and Sponsorship - The company has initiated its Olympic marketing strategy with the launch of the "Glory" series products, and further marketing activities are anticipated with upcoming events like the Chengdu World Games and the Milan Winter Olympics [3]

Summary of Li Ning Company Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses Li Ning Company, a prominent player in the sportswear industry, focusing on its performance and strategies for 2025 and beyond [2][3][32]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, both online and offline sales experienced negative growth due to factors such as the timing of the Dragon Boat Festival, adverse weather conditions, and early pre-sales for the 618 shopping festival [2][3]. - The overall sales trend in May and June did not meet expectations, with GMV during the 618 period falling short of targets, although e-commerce discounts improved [3][5]. Store Optimization and Strategy - Li Ning plans to close 201 stores in 2024 and an additional 10-20 stores in 2025 to enhance the efficiency of existing locations [2][5]. - The company aims to open 30-40 new wholesale stores to penetrate untapped markets [5]. - Store optimization includes adjusting channel structures, product offerings, and enhancing the efficiency of existing stores [6]. Marketing and Product Development - The COC marketing strategy will focus on the Glory series, which aligns with the Olympics, featuring national flag designs [7][9]. - New products primarily consist of casual commuting gear, priced slightly above standard products, targeting the mass market [8]. - The running category is performing well, while the basketball category has seen significant declines, prompting the company to implement volume control measures [15][16]. E-commerce and Channel Performance - E-commerce sales are dominated by Tmall and JD.com, accounting for approximately 50% of total online sales, with Douyin contributing over 20% [4][17]. - The performance of high-tier city stores is weaker compared to lower-tier cities, with the latter showing better results [4][18]. Financial Outlook and Inventory Management - The company maintains a healthy inventory level, with a stock-to-sales ratio of approximately 4-5 months as of the end of June [5]. - The gross margin pressure is anticipated in direct and e-commerce channels due to increased discounts compared to the previous year [25]. Future Growth and Market Expansion - Li Ning is focusing on expanding its presence in emerging markets, particularly Southeast Asia, through a newly established joint venture [26][27]. - The company is also investing in niche categories like golf and pickleball, with plans to enhance brand awareness through targeted marketing and sponsorships [28]. Children's Wear and Other Segments - The children's wear segment is identified as a significant growth area, despite facing challenges in the current consumption environment [21]. - The company plans to introduce new campus store formats to support the growth of its children's wear business [21]. Long-term Strategy - Over the next 1-3 years, Li Ning aims to increase investment in professional sports resources and expand its product offerings to align with long-term market trends [33]. Additional Important Insights - The company has established a dedicated team for Olympic-related activities, focusing on product planning and marketing strategies [12]. - The average sales price (ASP) is expected to stabilize or slightly decline in the second quarter due to seasonal changes and discounting strategies [22][23]. - The performance of outlet stores is significantly better than that of full-price stores, contributing positively to overall profitability [21].