Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating for Li Ning to "Recommended" based on the company's resilient operational capabilities and strategic execution despite short-term performance pressures [3]. Core Views - Li Ning's revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 14.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while net profit attributable to equity holders decreased by 11.0% to CNY 1.74 billion [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue growth in 2025, focusing on core product categories such as running, basketball, women's sports, outdoor activities, and badminton [3]. - The company aims to enhance its professional sports brand image and prepare for future structural market opportunities with healthy inventory and strong cash flow [3]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2025H1, footwear revenue reached CNY 8.23 billion, up 4.93% year-on-year, accounting for 55.55% of total revenue, while apparel revenue fell by 3.39% to CNY 5.19 billion, representing 35.05% of total revenue [1]. - Gross margin for 2025H1 was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased discounts in the direct sales channel [2]. - The net profit margin was 11.7%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, affected by higher expenses and impairment losses [2]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - Operating cash flow for 2025H1 was CNY 2.41 billion, exceeding the current profit, indicating strong cash flow management [2]. - Inventory turnover ratio was 3.6 months, with new products accounting for 87% of the inventory, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts stable revenue for the full year of 2025, with net profit estimates for 2025-2027 being CNY 2.605 billion, CNY 2.985 billion, and CNY 3.244 billion, respectively [3][4]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 18.74, 16.36, and 15.05 times, respectively [3].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's mid-year performance report for 2025 shows a slight revenue growth of 3.3% year-on-year, but a significant decline in net profit by 10.99%, indicating challenges in the consumer market despite strategic investments in professional sports [1][3][19]. Financial Performance - Revenue reached 14.817 billion RMB, up from 14.345 billion RMB in the previous year [2] - Gross profit was 7.415 billion RMB, a 2.5% increase from 7.236 billion RMB [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.737 billion RMB, down 11% from 1.952 billion RMB [2][19] - EBITDA increased by 2.0% to 3.512 billion RMB [2] Market Position and Strategy - Li Ning's revenue growth is slower compared to competitors, with Xtep reporting a 7.1% increase and Anta expected to reach 13% [2][3] - The company aims to enhance its investment in sports, particularly in the mass sports sector, and has renewed its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee [3][5] - Li Ning has signed contracts with multiple national teams and aims to leverage high-profile events to strengthen its brand positioning [6][9] Product Development and Sales - The company has expanded its product lines to include professional outdoor and lightweight outdoor categories, although these currently contribute a small portion of total revenue [6][8] - Running and basketball are the top two revenue-generating categories, with running sales increasing by 15% and basketball sales declining by 20% [9][10] - Li Ning has launched the Li Ning Running Club to promote a running ecosystem, integrating training resources and professional equipment [8] Challenges and Market Conditions - Despite growth in professional sports, Li Ning faces challenges in the mass consumer market, with declining foot traffic and increased discounts affecting sales [13][17] - The company reported a slight decrease in overall gross margin to 50.0% due to changes in product mix and discounting strategies [17] - Management remains cautious about future performance, anticipating stable revenue but potential pressure on profit margins due to rising costs [19]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning Company reported a revenue of 14.82 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while maintaining a healthy cash flow and manageable inventory levels [1] Financial Performance - Revenue reached 14.82 billion yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [1] - Gross profit was 7.41 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%, with an overall gross margin of 50.0% [1] - Net profit stood at 1.74 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 11.7% [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to focus on a "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" strategy, emphasizing professional sports and strengthening its operational foundation [1] - Li Ning has become the official partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee and the Chinese sports delegation for 2025-2028, enhancing its brand image in the professional sports sector [2] Research and Development - R&D investment increased by 8.7% year-on-year, totaling over 3.8 billion yuan in the last decade [4] - Professional product revenue exceeded 60%, with footwear revenue accounting for 56% [4] - New technologies such as "Ultra Light" have been successfully integrated into new products, receiving positive market feedback [4] Product Categories and Market Performance - The company is focusing on six core categories: running, basketball, cross-training, badminton, table tennis, and sports leisure, with running, basketball, and cross-training accounting for 67% of retail sales [7] - Running category sales grew by 15%, with over 14 million pairs of running shoes sold [7] - Basketball and cross-training categories also saw significant growth, with innovative products leveraging space technology [9] Operational Efficiency - Li Ning has optimized its channel structure and inventory management, maintaining a healthy inventory turnover of 61 days [10][12] - The company operates 7,534 stores as of June 30, 2025, and has seen a significant increase in online sales [12] - Supply chain optimization efforts have led to improved flexibility and sustainability in operations [14] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its core strategy while focusing on product competitiveness, enhancing collaboration with the Chinese Olympic Committee, and improving operational efficiency [14]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's retail performance in Q2 2025 shows a slowdown in growth, with challenges in both offline and online channels, while the company is increasing marketing investments to boost brand visibility and sales potential [2][3][6]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, Li Ning's overall retail revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) experienced low single-digit growth year-on-year, indicating a noticeable slowdown compared to Q1 [3]. - The offline direct sales channel saw a mid-single-digit decline, while the wholesale channel achieved low single-digit growth; online channels recorded median growth but at a reduced pace compared to Q1 [3][4]. - As of June 30, 2025, the number of retail points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) was 6,099, reflecting a net decrease of 19 points in the first half of the year [3][4]. Group 2: Inventory Management - Inventory management emerged as a positive aspect for Li Ning, with the inventory-to-sales ratio returning to a healthy level by the end of Q2 2025, despite increased promotional activities [4][5]. Group 3: Marketing Strategy - Li Ning is betting on a high-intensity marketing campaign, including a strategic partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee and signing NBA player Yang Hanshen, to enhance brand exposure and influence [6][7]. - The partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee is expected to provide a platform for brand image enhancement during major international events, while the collaboration with Yang Hanshen aims to drive sales through limited product launches [6][7]. Group 4: Long-term Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product matrix and channel efficiency for long-term growth, with an emphasis on core categories like running and basketball, which are expected to see high single-digit growth [8]. - Li Ning is adjusting its direct sales strategy, having significantly reduced the number of direct stores in 2024, but the pace of closures has slowed in 2025, indicating a shift towards enhancing overall channel efficiency [8]. Group 5: Market Outlook - There is a divergence in market sentiment regarding Li Ning's strategy of sacrificing short-term margins for long-term growth, with some analysts maintaining a positive outlook while others adopt a cautious stance [9]. - Investors are particularly interested in whether Li Ning can leverage its marketing efforts in the second half of the year to achieve revenue recovery and if product innovations can translate into tangible sales growth [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][11] Core Views - In Q2 2025, the company's retail sales recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with a slowdown compared to Q1. E-commerce sales showed mid-single-digit growth, while discounts remained under pressure. The inventory-to-sales ratio improved to four months [3][4][5] - The company has a healthy channel inventory and cash operating situation, with marketing efforts expected to drive brand growth in the long term despite short-term profit pressures due to increased brand investment [3][11] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 2.51 billion, 2.83 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -16.8%, +12.8%, and +7.6% respectively [11][12] Retail Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of sales points in China (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) was 6,099, a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter, but a net decrease of 18 year-to-date. The number of Li Ning YOUNG sales points was 1,435, with a net decrease of 18 from the previous quarter and 33 year-to-date [2][3] - The retail channel (direct operation) recorded a mid-single-digit decline, while the wholesale channel saw low single-digit growth. E-commerce virtual store business achieved mid-single-digit growth [2][3] Marketing Strategy - The marketing strategy focuses on two main lines: NBA (Yang Hansheng) and the Olympics (COC). The marketing expense ratio is expected to maintain a low double-digit level for the year, with significantly higher rates in the second half compared to the first half [3][5] - The company is launching limited products and personal logos in collaboration with NBA players, while also promoting a new product line centered around the Olympics and technology [5][11] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 0.5% in 2025, with expected revenues of 28.81 billion yuan, 30.24 billion yuan, and 31.90 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [12][16] - The expected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.97 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 15.4 [12][13]