供需格局优化，农药价格企稳反弹。自2022 年开始，多数农药价格从高点持续回落，价格有较大幅度 的调整。伴随海外库存持续去化，国内低效产能的出清，农药市场供需格局持续优化。2024 年以来农 药产量增速开始回落，2025 年增速维持在10%以内。农药PPI也从2024 年开始从底部反弹。根据中农立 华数据，原药指数已有反弹趋势，除草剂等品类也有所改善。政策端持续收紧，一品一证政策落地，行 业规范进行中，登记证丰富的龙头企业有望受益。 产业链布局完善，优创项目巩固龙头地位。菊酯：菊酯关键中间体贲亭酸甲酯供给扰动，菊酯现货偏紧 价格反弹，公司农药中间体配套完善，叠加优创项目投产产能增加，有望充分受益菊酯价格修复。草甘 膦：2025 年行业供给相对平稳，下游需求回暖，草甘膦价格持续修复；麦草畏：美国复批麦草畏，需 求有望逐步打开。杀菌剂：3000 吨吡唑醚菌酯技改项目推进中，有望贡献增量。 ab推le荐_S逻u辑mm：a农ry药] 价格逐步复苏，公司优创项目开始放量，有望迎来量价齐升：1）公司 是国内农药龙头企业，产品布局完善，优创一期规划15650 吨农药原药产能，未来增量可期；2）2025 年以来农药价格逐步修 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a collaborative production cut in the caprolactam industry, with a 20% reduction agreed upon by participating factories, alongside a price increase of 100 CNY per ton [4][5]. - The report notes the implementation of a 600,000-ton urea export quota, with rising costs for urea producers due to increased coal and natural gas prices, suggesting a strong cost support for urea prices [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the upward price trend in the pyrethroid industry, driven by recent price increases for various products, indicating potential for further price elasticity as the agricultural season approaches [4][5]. Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgments indicate a stable increase in global oil demand, with Brent crude oil expected to maintain a price range of 60-70 USD per barrel [5][6]. - The report discusses the long-term stabilization of coal prices and the potential decrease in natural gas import costs due to accelerated export facility construction in the U.S. [5][6]. - The report provides insights into the chemical cycle's operational phase, noting a decrease in the PPI for industrial products and a slight recovery in manufacturing activity as indicated by the PMI [6][10]. Chemical Sector Configuration - The report suggests investment strategies focusing on the textile chain, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemicals, and companies benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [4][5]. - Specific companies to watch include Luxi Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng in the caprolactam sector, and Xinlianxin and Hualu Hengsheng in the urea sector [4][5]. - The report identifies key materials for growth, emphasizing the importance of self-sufficiency in semiconductor materials and other critical components [4][5]. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating ratings such as "Buy" and "Increase" for various firms in the agricultural chemicals and chemical sectors, with specific market capitalizations and profit forecasts [18].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co., Ltd. reported a revenue increase of 9.38% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, despite facing challenges in the agricultural chemical industry due to global economic conditions and trade tensions [2][8]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - The company achieved an operating income of CNY 6.23 billion, up from CNY 5.70 billion in the same period last year [2][8]. - The total profit for the period was CNY 952.97 million, a 7.26% increase from CNY 888.44 million [2][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 805.86 million, reflecting a 5.60% increase compared to CNY 763.11 million [2][8]. - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 34.34% to CNY 1.73 billion [2][8]. - The company's total assets reached CNY 18.24 billion, a 3.24% increase from the previous year [2][8]. Industry Context - The agricultural chemical industry is facing multiple challenges, including weakened global economic growth, trade protectionism, and geopolitical risks, which have impacted market demand [3][4]. - Despite these challenges, there are structural opportunities driven by the strategic importance of food security and government policies supporting agricultural development [5][8]. - The domestic pesticide market is experiencing increased supply due to new production capacities, while global food prices remain low, affecting pesticide demand [4][5]. Business Operations - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of pesticide products, with a diverse product range including insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides [7][8]. - The first half of the year is typically the peak season for pesticide sales, with a significant portion of revenue generated during this period [7][8]. - The company has implemented strategies to adapt to market conditions, including expanding into new regional markets and enhancing production efficiency [8][9]. Competitive Advantages - Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical is recognized as a leading high-tech enterprise in the agricultural chemical sector, with a strong focus on innovation and sustainable practices [11][12]. - The company has developed a robust brand presence and maintains significant market share in both domestic and Southeast Asian markets [13][12]. - The company emphasizes technological innovation and operational excellence, which are critical for maintaining competitive advantages in a challenging market environment [11][12].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the "bull market atmosphere" is continuously strengthening, with the main logic of "anti-involution" significantly improving the supply-demand structure for midstream manufacturing in 2026 [6][14] - The report suggests that the conditions for residents to fully allocate equity are still lacking, but the profit effect is accelerating, potentially leading to an earlier time for comprehensive incremental speculation in A-shares [6][14] - The report recommends actively seeking new structural opportunities in the current market phase, which is seen as a transitional stage for the market to find the main structure of the bull market [6][14] Group 2 - The report highlights the "iron triangle" stocks: Ruike Laser, Giant Network, and Heng Rui Medicine, which are expected to perform well due to their strong market positions and growth potential [6][17] - Other recommended stocks include: Pengding Holdings, Yangnong Chemical, Sun Paper, Zhongmin Resources, China Shipbuilding, Maifusi (Hong Kong), and Jianfa International Group (Hong Kong) [6][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology with industrial trend catalysts and midstream manufacturing with improved supply-demand dynamics as key investment themes [6][14] Group 3 - The previous stock combination from July 1 to July 31, 2025, achieved a return of 5.11%, with A-shares averaging a 3.53% increase, while the Hang Seng Index saw an increase of 2.91% [6][2] - Since the first release of the stock combination on March 28, 2017, the cumulative increase has reached 322.85%, with A-shares up 251.34% and Hong Kong stocks up 809.47% [6][2] - The report provides detailed performance metrics for the recommended stocks, including market capitalization and price changes, indicating a strong performance relative to benchmarks [6][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural chemical industry is showing signs of recovery after a period of destocking, with the company expected to enter a new growth cycle [3][10]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic pesticide market, benefiting from its integration with Syngenta and its strong product portfolio [10][22]. - The company's financial forecasts indicate a significant increase in net profit from 14.07 billion yuan in 2025 to 20.41 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 12 [11][12]. Industry Overview - The global agricultural chemical market is transitioning from destocking to capacity reduction, with a clear signal of recovery in the industry [3][10]. - The demand for pesticides is expected to stabilize as global inventory levels return to normal, supporting price recovery for key products [3][12]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery due to its strong market share and competitive advantages in the production of pyrethroids [10][12]. Company Performance and Financial Projections - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 11.53 billion yuan in 2025 to 14.65 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.5% [4][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 23.9% in 2025 to 25.1% in 2027, reflecting operational efficiencies and product pricing power [4][11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 12.1% in 2025 to 13.9% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4][11]. Product and Market Position - The company has a comprehensive product line in the pesticide sector, including insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides, with a strong focus on pyrethroids [10][22]. - The company’s production capacity for key products like Kungfu pyrethroid is significant, with a capacity of 8,500 tons, and prices are currently at historical lows, indicating potential for future price increases [10][12]. - The company is actively expanding its production capabilities, particularly at the Huludao base, which is expected to enhance its market share further [10][12].