丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨扬农化工（600486.SH） [Table_Title] 行业周期底部，公司逆势增长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 半年报，2025H1 实现收入 62.3 亿元，同比变动+9.4%，归属净利润 8.1 亿元， 同比变动+5.6%，归属扣非净利润 8.0 亿元，同比变动+7.9%。2025Q2 实现收入 29.9 亿元， 同比变动+18.6%，环比变动-7.6%，归属净利润 3.7 亿元，同比变动+11.1%，环比变动-14.7%， 归属扣非净利润 3.7 亿元，同比变动+17.5%，环比变动-15.0%。公司拟向全体股东每 10 股派 发现金红利人民币 2.40 元（含税）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 王明 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490521030001 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BVA881 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 扬农化工（600486.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 行业周 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Views - The company is positioned at the bottom of the pesticide industry cycle, leveraging its integrated production chain based on phosgene to explore new opportunities [4]. - The overall pesticide prices are at a relatively low point, with expectations for recovery to enhance profitability [7]. - The company has a robust cash flow, which supports the upgrading of its industrial chain and optimizes costs [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Complete Industrial Chain Supports Rapid Development - The company is one of the largest domestic producers of pesticide raw materials and intermediates based on phosgene, forming a complete industrial chain from raw materials to intermediates to agricultural products [12]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the actual controllers holding a high concentration of shares, which is beneficial for long-term development [17]. - The company has ample funds, with a total of 8.685 billion yuan in cash and other liquid assets by 2024, providing sufficient financial support for long-term construction and development [23]. 2. Steady Development of the Pesticide Sector - The pesticide sector is experiencing price recovery from a low point, which is expected to enhance profits [7]. - The company is a leading producer of the fungicides carbendazim and methyl thiophanate, with significant production capacity [32]. - The company is among the first in China to achieve production of the herbicide dicamba, holding a leading position in domestic production capacity [45]. 3. Leveraging Phosgene Resources for Industrial Chain Expansion - The company is a leader in the phosgene-based pesticide industry, with a high entry barrier for phosgene production [7]. - Phosgene resources are scarce, and the company has a diverse range of downstream products [7]. - Phosgene can be used to produce isocyanates, which have excellent performance in modified products, providing new directions for industrial development [7]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 50.21 billion yuan, 54.49 billion yuan, and 59.67 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.15%, 8.52%, and 9.51% respectively [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 9.39 billion yuan, 11.18 billion yuan, and 12.26 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 20.59%, 19.07%, and 9.62% respectively [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.03 yuan, 1.23 yuan, and 1.35 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11.17, 9.38, and 8.55 [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The pesticide industry has transitioned from a destocking phase that began in Q4 2022 to a normalized inventory level, but due to overcapacity, prices have been in a downtrend since H2 2022, hitting a bottom in June 2023 and entering a consolidation phase. It is expected that the industry will remain in a bottom consolidation phase until 2025 [1][2] Key Products and Price Trends - Notable pesticide products expected to perform well in 2025 include Bacillus thuringiensis, Abamectin, and Methomyl, benefiting from supply-side events (shutdowns or explosions) and increased demand for formulations. Some products, like Mancozeb, have seen price increases due to proactive adjustments by companies like UPL [1][4] Glyphosate Market Dynamics - China's annual glyphosate production is approximately 600,000 tons with a capacity utilization rate of 75%. Recent shutdowns of factories along the Yangtze River are expected to impact production by about 90,000 tons, which is 10% of China's total annual output. Glyphosate inventory has decreased from a high of 80,000 tons to 34,000 tons, with prices rising from 23,500 CNY/ton to 25,900 CNY/ton, leading to improved gross margins [1][5][6] Future Price Expectations - Future price increases for glyphosate may be influenced by past events, such as the 2020 floods that caused significant price hikes. Current shutdowns are expected to impact 45,000 tons of production, and environmental inspections in Hebei may lead to raw material shortages, serving as potential catalysts for price increases [1][6] Export Demand from Brazil - Brazil is a significant market for glyphosate, with potential shifts in orders from the U.S. to China due to tariffs. Increased planting area in Brazil is also expected to drive demand for glyphosate, further boosting China's export opportunities [1][7] Bayer-Monsanto Litigation Impact - Bayer's acquisition of Monsanto has led to over $10 billion in litigation costs, with many lawsuits still unresolved. This situation may pressure Bayer's market value and could lead to bankruptcy considerations, significantly impacting the glyphosate market and potentially triggering market volatility [1][3][12] Cost Structure of Glyphosate Production - Production costs for glyphosate vary by manufacturer, with lower-cost producers at approximately 22,000 to 23,000 CNY, while higher-cost producers are around 24,000 CNY. This variation is influenced by the availability of raw materials and production facilities [1][9] Market Demand Trends - Overall demand for glyphosate is on the rise, with stable demand in the U.S. and increased demand in Brazil and China due to expanded planting areas. The expected overall demand growth rate is around 3% [1][11] Conclusion on Glyphosate as an Investment - Glyphosate is viewed as a strong investment opportunity within the chemical cycle due to its essential nature and the current market dynamics of decreasing inventory and rising prices [1][13]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Fengshan Group Co., Ltd. maintains an AA- credit rating with a stable outlook, reflecting its strong product structure and customer quality, despite facing challenges in profitability and industry conditions [4][9]. Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of pesticide active ingredients, formulations, and fine chemical intermediates [11]. - The fine chemical segment has entered trial production, enhancing the company's product chain and competitiveness [6][11]. Financial Performance - Total assets as of March 2025 are 27.81 billion, with equity attributable to shareholders at 15.91 billion [4]. - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 3.22 billion, a decline from 10.44 billion in 2022, with a net profit of 0.15 billion, recovering from a loss of 0.42 billion in 2022 [4][5]. - The company’s operating cash flow has been negative, indicating challenges in cash generation [4]. Industry Environment - The pesticide industry is currently at a cyclical low, with a projected slight decline in revenue for 2024, while the net profit is expected to remain a loss of 0.39 billion [6][9]. - The global pesticide market is expected to grow from 790.6 billion in 2024 to 1,185.1 billion by 2031, driven by increasing food demand and pest control needs [14]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to the commercialization of sodium-ion electrolyte products, which are not progressing as expected, leading to underutilization of production capacity [7][8]. - Environmental and safety production risks are heightened due to stricter regulations in the chemical industry [8][9]. Market Position - The company has a competitive edge in its core pesticide products, with significant market share in active ingredients like Fluorochloromethane and Quinclorac [15][16]. - The sales concentration remains low, with a diverse customer base, reducing dependency on a few clients [19]. Future Outlook - The credit rating agency maintains a stable outlook for the company, anticipating gradual recovery in market demand and pricing for its main products [9][12]. - The company is actively managing inventory and production to align with market conditions, indicating a strategic approach to navigating current challenges [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural chemical industry is showing signs of recovery after a period of destocking, with the company expected to enter a new growth cycle [3][10]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic pesticide market, benefiting from its integration with Syngenta and its strong product portfolio [10][22]. - The company's financial forecasts indicate a significant increase in net profit from 14.07 billion yuan in 2025 to 20.41 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 12 [11][12]. Industry Overview - The global agricultural chemical market is transitioning from destocking to capacity reduction, with a clear signal of recovery in the industry [3][10]. - The demand for pesticides is expected to stabilize as global inventory levels return to normal, supporting price recovery for key products [3][12]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery due to its strong market share and competitive advantages in the production of pyrethroids [10][12]. Company Performance and Financial Projections - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 11.53 billion yuan in 2025 to 14.65 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.5% [4][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 23.9% in 2025 to 25.1% in 2027, reflecting operational efficiencies and product pricing power [4][11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 12.1% in 2025 to 13.9% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4][11]. Product and Market Position - The company has a comprehensive product line in the pesticide sector, including insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides, with a strong focus on pyrethroids [10][22]. - The company’s production capacity for key products like Kungfu pyrethroid is significant, with a capacity of 8,500 tons, and prices are currently at historical lows, indicating potential for future price increases [10][12]. - The company is actively expanding its production capabilities, particularly at the Huludao base, which is expected to enhance its market share further [10][12].

Summary of the Conference Call for Guangxin Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The pesticide industry entered a downward cycle in the second half of 2022, with rising shipping costs impacting gross margins in Q2 2024. [2][3] - Current industry inventory is relatively low, indicating a bottoming phase. Downstream customers are adopting a just-in-time purchasing strategy due to economic conditions and trade wars, limiting significant price adjustments. [2][6] - The pesticide and agrochemical industry has been in a downward cycle for several years, with expectations of gradual recovery by 2025, although this remains uncertain due to global trade tensions and manufacturing pressures. [30] Company Performance - Guangxin Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 4.643 billion yuan and a net profit of 779 million yuan for 2024, with Q1 2025 revenue at 982 million yuan and net profit at 161 million yuan. [3] - The company faces challenges from declining profits in glyphosate and price wars in the polysilicon market. [2][4] - Non-recurring gains in Q1 2025 were primarily from investment income of approximately 34 million yuan. [4][14] Product Insights - Glyphosate, while currently generating minimal profit, plays a crucial role in the company's chlorine and other product cost structures. [3][4] - New products like isoxaben and imidacloprid are expected to contribute positively to performance in Q2 2024. [2][5] - The company plans to expand its market presence in India to increase demand for nitrobenzene phenol, aiming to reduce costs and improve profitability. [10] Market Dynamics - The glyphosate market is under significant supply pressure, with many new capacities expected in 2025. [13][29] - The company’s direct exports to the U.S. account for about 5% of total revenue, with limited impact from tariffs due to glyphosate being on the mutual exemption list. [8] - The nitrobenzene phenol market is experiencing oversupply, with major players including Yanglong Group and Jiangsu Nanhua. [10] Competitive Landscape - Guangxin Co., Ltd. maintains a strong market position but faces competition from other manufacturers, some of which are reducing their investments in glyphosate. [2][4] - The company aims to collaborate with other firms to stabilize the market and mitigate price wars. [9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on domestic technological upgrades and reducing dividend payouts to manage financial pressures and seek investment opportunities. [4][19] - Plans for expanding production capacities for new products like isoxaben and imidacloprid are in place, with expectations for full production in the near future. [16][27] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a better market performance in Q2 2025, driven by improved sales of fungicides. [24] - The overall recovery of the market is contingent on supply-side changes, particularly if smaller players exit the market. [32] - The company is cautious about overseas expansion due to political risks, preferring to focus on stable domestic investments. [18][31] Conclusion - Guangxin Co., Ltd. is navigating a challenging market environment with strategic adjustments in product offerings and market focus. The company is poised for potential recovery as it adapts to changing market dynamics and seeks to optimize its operational efficiencies. [2][30]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 28 日 扬农化工（600486.SH） 一季度业绩符合预期，行业周期底部凸显韧性 周期/化工 事件：公司发布 2025 年一季报，报告期内实现营业收入 32.41 亿元，同比增长 2.04%，归母净利润 4.35 亿元，同比增长 1.35%，扣非净利润 4.30 亿元，同 比增长 0.83%。 ❑ 风险提示：产品价格下跌、原材料价格上涨、新项目投产不及预期。 | 财务数据与估值 | | --- | | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 11478 | 10435 | 11732 | 13364 | 15125 | | 同比增长 | -27% | -9% | 12% | 14% | 13% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1869 | 1413 | 1585 | 1892 | 2201 | | 同比增长 | -13% | -24% | 12% | 19% | 16% | | 归母净利润(百万元) ...