Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.8 times, at the historical 79th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 33.9 times, at the historical 18th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 139.8 times, at the historical 99th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, and Aviation [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - The price of polysilicon futures has risen by 8.2% to above 45,000 yuan, indicating a recovery in the market [2] - Battery cell prices increased by 7.7%, while prices for silicon wafers remained stable [2] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.0%, while iron ore prices rose by 3.2% [2] - The national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.6%, while the wholesale price of pork increased by 0.3% [3] - Retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with June's growth down to 4.8% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while narrow infrastructure investment grew by 4.6% [3] - The production of industrial robots increased by 35.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits increased by 8.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Cyclicals - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 2.0% to $69.23 per barrel [3] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 23.4%, reaching its highest level since September 2024 [3]

【冠通研究】 短期低位震荡，卷螺差趋于收缩 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 15 日 【策略分析】 短期低位震荡，卷螺差趋于收缩 今日黑色系震荡为主，成材偏弱运行，收盘价格重心小幅变动。成材基本面表现 中性偏弱，五大材总需求止增转降，需求或已见顶；热卷库存去化放缓，相对螺 纹基本面优势有所弱化，多卷螺头寸注意保护盈利。总体上，产业链上下游整体 压力加大；近期宏观风险扰动加大，盘面波动加剧，黑色系估值相对偏低，产业 矛盾暂时有限，短期建议低位震荡思路对待。后续重点关注国内外宏观变动。 RB2510 下方关注 3000 附近、HC2510 关注 3100 附近。 【期现行情】 螺纹 2510 小时 K 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 数据来源：博易大师，冠通期货 期货方面：螺纹钢主力 RB2510 开盘 3127 元/吨，收盘于 3125 元/吨，-6 元/吨， 涨跌幅-0.19%；热卷主力 2510 开盘 3250 元/吨，收盘于 3236 元/吨，-11 元/吨， 涨跌幅-0.34%。持仓方面，今日螺纹钢 RB2510 合约前二十名多头持仓为 111 ...