Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights various sectors with their respective valuation metrics [1][2]. Core Insights - The report tracks A-share valuations and industry sentiment, indicating that the overall market is experiencing varied valuation levels across different indices and sectors [1][2]. - Key sectors such as real estate, steel, and IT services are noted for their high PE ratios, suggesting potential overvaluation, while white goods are highlighted as undervalued [1][2]. Valuation Comparisons - The report provides a detailed comparison of PE and PB ratios across major indices, with the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.3x and PB at 1.8x, indicating historical percentiles of 79% and 39% respectively [1][4][5]. - The report identifies industries with PE ratios above the historical 85th percentile, including real estate, steel, and IT services, while white goods are noted for being below the 15th percentile [1][7]. Industry Sentiment Tracking - **New Energy**: The report notes a slight decline in downstream prices for photovoltaic products, while upstream polysilicon prices have increased by 6.3%. The demand for lithium materials remains strong due to stable orders in the traditional peak season [1][2]. - **Real Estate Chain**: Steel prices have decreased, with rebar prices down by 1.7% and iron ore prices down by 1.4%. Cement prices are also under pressure due to insufficient demand [2]. - **Consumer Goods**: Pork prices have seen a slight decline, while liquor prices have stabilized. Agricultural products like corn and wheat have mixed price movements [2]. - **Midstream Manufacturing**: Excavator sales have increased by 25.4% year-on-year, driven by infrastructure projects and equipment upgrades. Heavy truck sales have surged by 82.9% year-on-year, reflecting strong demand [2]. - **Cyclical Industries**: The report highlights fluctuations in metal prices due to geopolitical tensions and economic concerns, with precious metals seeing significant price increases [2]. Key Industry Valuations - The report lists specific industry valuations, with real estate at a PE of 120.0 and a PB of 16.6, indicating a high valuation relative to historical norms. In contrast, the white goods sector has a PE of 10.4, suggesting it is undervalued [1][7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector continued to decline today but rebounded slightly at the end of the session. Steel spot trading was weak overall, with poor speculative interest and mainly刚需 purchases. After the holiday, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern with limited downside space. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. Also, the "15th Five - Year Plan" content will affect market fluctuations. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to expand [8]. - The steel market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and a significant drop in demand. Although the short - term market is affected by news and under pressure, the low valuation of the futures market and the rise in thermal coal prices suggest that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: RB05 was at 3114 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan from yesterday), RB10 at 2970 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan), and RB01 at 3061 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan). The 05 - contract rebar盘面 profit was - 142 yuan (up 7 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 285 yuan (up 19 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 166 yuan (up 9 yuan) [3]. - **Rebar Spot**: Shanghai Zhongtian was at 3180 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Nanjing Xicheng at 3280 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), Shandong Shiheng at 3160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Tangshan Tanggang at 3110 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The cheapest delivery product was 3160 yuan/ton. Rebar profits in different regions showed various changes, with East China rebar profit at - 228 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and Tangshan rebar profit at - 319 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: HC05 was at 3248 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan), HC10 at 3442 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and HC01 at 3241 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面 profit was - 8 yuan (up 6 yuan), the 10 - contract was 187 yuan (up 40 yuan), and the 01 - contract was 14 yuan (up 11 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was at 3220 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was at 3260 - 3290 yuan/ton (down 20 - 30 yuan). The cheapest delivery product was 3260 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil profits in different regions also changed, with Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit at - 341 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan) and East China hot - rolled coil profit at - 227 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan) [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3180 yuan (down 10 yuan), Beijing Jingye was 3130 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan (down 30 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3220 yuan (down 30 yuan) [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Important News** - In September 2025, 19,858 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. Domestic sales were 9,249 units, a year - on - year increase of 21.5%, and exports were 10,609 units, a year - on - year increase of 29%. From January to September, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% [11]. - The Ministry of Transport issued a document on charging port fees for US ships, which has limited impact on iron ore transportation [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil contract basis, spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [15].

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.8 times, at the historical 79th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 33.9 times, at the historical 18th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 139.8 times, at the historical 99th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, and Aviation [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - The price of polysilicon futures has risen by 8.2% to above 45,000 yuan, indicating a recovery in the market [2] - Battery cell prices increased by 7.7%, while prices for silicon wafers remained stable [2] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.0%, while iron ore prices rose by 3.2% [2] - The national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.6%, while the wholesale price of pork increased by 0.3% [3] - Retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with June's growth down to 4.8% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while narrow infrastructure investment grew by 4.6% [3] - The production of industrial robots increased by 35.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits increased by 8.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Cyclicals - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 2.0% to $69.23 per barrel [3] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 23.4%, reaching its highest level since September 2024 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The black series is mainly oscillating in the short term, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar tends to shrink. The fundamentals of finished products are moderately weak, with the total demand for the five major steel products stopping increasing and starting to decline, indicating that demand may have peaked. The inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils has slowed down, and its fundamental advantage relative to rebar has weakened. Traders with long positions in the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread should protect their profits. Overall, the pressure on the entire industrial chain, both upstream and downstream, has increased. Recently, macro risks have increased, causing greater fluctuations in the market. The valuation of the black series is relatively low, and industrial contradictions are currently limited. In the short term, a low-level oscillation approach is recommended. Future attention should be paid to domestic and foreign macro - economic changes. For RB2510, support around 3000 should be watched, and for HC2510, support around 3100 should be monitored [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The black series oscillated today, with finished products showing weak performance and a slight change in the closing price center. The fundamentals of finished products are moderately weak, with the total demand for the five major steel products peaking and starting to decline. The inventory reduction of hot - rolled coils has slowed, and its advantage over rebar has weakened. The overall pressure on the industrial chain has increased, and macro risks have led to greater market fluctuations. The black series is undervalued, and industrial contradictions are limited. A low - level oscillation strategy is recommended in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro changes. Support levels are around 3000 for RB2510 and 3100 for HC2510 [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The main rebar contract RB2510 opened at 3127 yuan/ton and closed at 3125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton or 0.19%. The main hot - rolled coil contract HC2510 opened at 3250 yuan/ton and closed at 3236 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.34%. In terms of positions, for the RB2510 contract, the top 20 long positions increased by 9737 to 1116699 hands, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 2014 to 1122368 hands. For the HC2510 contract, the top 20 long positions increased by 27774 to 989342 hands, and the top 20 short positions increased by 27195 to 850445 hands [5] - **Spot**: Domestic steel prices showed mixed trends today. The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton (unchanged). The trading atmosphere in the steel market was average [5] - **Basis**: The basis of the main rebar contract in Shanghai was 45 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil was 24 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton). The current basis is at a medium level compared to historical data [5] Fundamental Tracking - **Rebar**: From April 4th to April 11th, rebar production was 232.37 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.72 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.68%. Apparent demand was 252.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.99 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 11.83%. Social inventory was 563.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.85 million tons, and factory inventory was 214.66 million tons, an increase of 7.54 million tons. Total inventory was 777.76 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.31 million tons. Rebar production showed a slight increase, but short - process production faced significant loss pressure, and the motivation for electric - arc furnace restart was insufficient. Demand recovery was slow, and inventory reduction was less than expected [6][8] - **Hot - rolled Coils**: From April 4th to April 11th, hot - rolled coil production was 313.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. Apparent demand was 315.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.99 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.75%. Factory inventory was 86.23 million tons, an increase of 0.98 million tons, and social inventory was 298.08 million tons, a decrease of 3.01 million tons. Total inventory was 384.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03 million tons. Both production and demand of hot - rolled coils decreased significantly. Inventory reduction slowed down, and the absolute inventory level was at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, with demand peaking and starting to decline [6][8]