证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 2026年01月03日 港股市场速览 优于大市 开年整体上涨，风格概念分化 股价表现：整体开年上涨，风格概念分化 本周，恒生指数+2.0%，恒生综指+1.7%。风格方面，大盘（恒生大型股+2.0%） ＞中盘（恒生中型股+0.8%）＞小盘（恒生小型股-0.3%）。 主要概念指数表现分化。上涨的主要有恒生汽车（+4.8%）；下跌的主要有 恒生生物科技（-1.4%）。 国信海外选股策略多数上涨。上涨的主要有自由现金流 30（+2.7%）；下跌 的主要有 ROE 策略进攻型（-2.1%）。 22 个行业上涨，7 个行业下跌，1 个基本持平。上涨的主要有：国防军工 （+8.9%）、石油石化（+5.6%）、电子（+4.4%）、汽车（+4.2%）、传媒（+4.1%）； 下跌的主要有：基础化工（-2.1%）、食品饮料（-2.0%）、农林牧渔（-1.9%）、 医药（-1.3%）、电力及公用事业（-1.1%）。 估值水平：行业分化较大，科技与汽车拉升 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）+1.4%至 11.7x； 恒生综指估值+2.2%至 11.7x。 主要概念指数 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟 行业比较周跟踪（20251206-20251212） 本期投资提示: 相关研究 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一、Ａ 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日) ● 1) 指数及板块估值比较: 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE 为 21 倍，PB 为 1.8 倍，处于历史 77%和 39%分位; √ √ 上证 50 PE 为 11.7 倍，PB 为 1.3 倍，处于历史 62%和 40%分位; √ ...

（来源：一观大势） 作者：方奕/李健 核心观点：上周（2025/12/1-2025/12/5）成交活跃度上升，创业板指领涨。宽基指数：估值全面上涨，创业板指领涨。行业指数：PE估值家电，PB估值有 色金属领涨。情绪：交易活跃度上升，换手率全面上升，成交额全面下降。ERP：环比下降。 投资要点 ▶指数估值：估值全面上涨，创业板指领涨。宽基指数：估值全面上涨，创业板指领涨。PE-TTM历史分位：各指数全面上涨，创业板指领涨，涨1.7个 pct。PB-LF历史分位：各指数全面上涨，创业板指领涨，涨1.3个pct。风格指数：估值涨多跌少，大盘股风格领涨。PE-TTM历史分位：各风格涨多跌 少，大盘股风格领涨1.4个pct。PB-LF历史分位：各风格涨多跌少，大盘股风格领涨5.1个pct。 ▶行业估值：PE估值家电，PB估值有色金属领涨。行业PE：估值涨多跌少，家电领涨。PE-TTM历史分位：各行业估值涨多跌少，家电领涨3.7个pct。 PE-G对比：电力设备及新能源具有性价比。行业PB：估值涨多跌少，有色金属领涨。PB-LF历史分位：各行业估值涨多跌少，有色金属领涨8.9个pct。 PB-ROE对比：银行具有性价比。 ...

Group 1 - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with an overall increase of 16.36% from January to November 2025, surpassing the index by approximately 3.18 percentage points [12][13][14] - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns, with significant increases in animal health (36.27%), fishery (35.22%), agricultural product processing (21.88%), feed (12.48%), breeding (11.53%), and planting (8.49%) [13] - Approximately 83% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with around 5% of stocks increasing by over 100%, and 17% recording negative returns [14][17] Group 2 - The breeding industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in the number of breeding sows, with a current stock of 40.35 million heads, which is 1.1% lower than the previous year [23][24] - The price of live pigs has shown a downward trend in 2025, with an average price of 11.65 yuan/kg as of November 24, down 26% from the beginning of the year, but is expected to gradually recover in 2026 [26] - The profitability of pig farming has turned negative, with self-breeding losses at 135.9 yuan per head and external piglet purchases at 234.63 yuan per head, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026 [31] Group 3 - The meat chicken breeding sector faced challenges in profitability during 2025, with the average price of broiler chicks fluctuating and a significant decline in profitability [33][35] - The supply of yellow feathered chickens is expected to remain relatively abundant in 2026, with a high stock of breeding chickens [45][47] - The overall feed production in China is projected to continue its recovery, with a total production of 15.85 million tons in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [50] Group 4 - The prices of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal have shown fluctuations, with corn prices recovering from a low of 2115.59 yuan/ton to around 2300.88 yuan/ton by late November 2025 [52][53] - The global supply of corn is expected to remain ample, with a projected production of 128.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season, indicating limited price recovery potential [55] - The overall market for pet food in China is anticipated to grow, with an increase in exports and a rising domestic market [38][40]

Core Insights - The private equity research activities in the A-share market have significantly increased in October, with a total of 1,072 private equity institutions participating in the research of 549 stocks, resulting in 5,242 research instances, an 87.95% increase from September [1] - The surge in research activity is attributed to two main factors: a market adjustment at the end of September that provided attractive valuation opportunities and the upcoming disclosure of Q3 reports, prompting private equity firms to verify company performance [1] Industry Summary - The electronics industry continues to lead in research activity, with 74 stocks receiving a total of 815 research instances, maintaining its position as the most focused sector for several months [2] - The pharmaceutical and biological industry ranks second with 772 research instances across 75 stocks, while the power equipment industry follows closely with 738 instances across 57 stocks [2] - A total of 180 stocks received significant attention from private equity institutions, with 101 stocks receiving 10-19 instances, 62 stocks receiving 20-39 instances, and 17 stocks receiving 40 or more instances [2] Company Insights - Jinpan Technology in the power equipment sector attracted 88 private equity institutions, resulting in 88 research instances, including participation from five billion-level private equity firms [2] - Other notable companies receiving attention include Zhaoyi Innovation in the electronics sector, United Imaging Healthcare in the pharmaceutical sector, and Zhongmin Resources in the non-ferrous metals sector, all ranking high in research instances [2][3] Market Trends - The electronics industry's sustained interest is driven by accelerated domestic substitution in semiconductors and the initiation of a consumer electronics innovation cycle, indicating strong growth potential in specific segments [3] - The pharmaceutical and biological sector benefits from a wide range of stocks and factors such as accelerated approval of innovative drugs and recovery in medical consumption, making it a preferred choice for diversified investment [3] - The power equipment sector is experiencing growth due to the continuous increase in new energy installations and stable performance from upstream and downstream enterprises, attracting intensive research to verify production capacity and order status [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a decline in both revenue and net profit, while Guizhou Moutai demonstrates resilience with approximately 6% growth in both metrics [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry reported a total revenue of 320.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.83%, and a net profit of 122.57 billion yuan, down 6.93% year-on-year [2]. - Despite the downturn, analysts believe that the increasing concentration in the industry will help companies manage production and sales effectively, reducing vicious competition and maintaining profitability [2]. Guizhou Moutai Performance - Guizhou Moutai achieved total revenue of 130.90 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit of 64.63 billion yuan, up 6.25% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s sales cash receipts reached 138.79 billion yuan, marking a 7.02% increase year-on-year [3]. - Analysts highlight Moutai's stable growth amidst industry challenges, attributing this to effective channel management and a refined operational strategy [3]. Analyst Ratings - Multiple institutions have assigned "buy" or "strong buy" ratings to Guizhou Moutai, indicating confidence in its ability to achieve high-quality growth [5]. - The company has seen an increase in the number of domestic and international distributors, with 2,325 and 121 respectively, reflecting a net increase of 182 and 17 since the beginning of the year [5]. Valuation Insights - The liquor industry index currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of around 18 times, significantly lower than the average of over 30 times in the past decade [7]. - Guizhou Moutai's latest price-to-earnings ratio is close to 20 times, indicating that its valuation has reached a "phase bottom" [7]. Market Sentiment - Notable investors, such as Duan Yongping, have increased their holdings in Guizhou Moutai, suggesting confidence in the company's long-term value and that its stock price has reached a low point [9]. - Analysts predict that the fourth quarter of 2025 may mark a turning point in supply and demand dynamics within the industry [9]. Future Outlook - The industry is currently in an adjustment phase, which historically has led to new growth opportunities [8]. - Analysts suggest that the second half of this year and the first half of next year will be critical for the industry to establish a bottoming phase, with potential signs of demand recovery emerging [10].

Valuation Summary - The current PE and PB ratios for major indices are as follows: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE is 21.3x, PB is 1.8x, at historical percentiles of 79% and 39% respectively - SSE 50 Index PE is 12.0x, PB is 1.3x, at historical percentiles of 65% and 43% respectively - CSI 500 Index PE is 33.4x, PB is 2.2x, at historical percentiles of 63% and 45% respectively - ChiNext Index PE is 41.3x, PB is 5.2x, at historical percentiles of 36% and 57% respectively - CSI 1000 Index PE is 45.7x, PB is 2.4x, at historical percentiles of 65% and 44% respectively - National 2000 Index PE is 58.9x, PB is 2.5x, at historical percentiles of 76% and 58% respectively - STAR 50 Index PE is 174.7x, PB is 6.1x, at historical percentiles of 98% and 67% respectively - North Exchange 50 Index PE is 67.4x, PB is 5.1x, at historical percentiles of 88% and 93% respectively - ChiNext Index relative to CSI 300 PE is 2.9x, PB is 3.5x, at historical percentiles of 22% and 56% respectively [1][2][4] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile historically include: Real Estate, Steel, and IT Services (Software Development) - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile historically include: Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile historically include: White Goods [1][2][5] Industry Midstream Sentiment Tracking New Energy - Photovoltaics: Post-holiday, downstream spot prices slightly declined. Upstream polysilicon futures prices increased by 6.3%, while spot prices remained stable. Midstream silicon wafer prices remained consistent, with potential production increases in Q4. Downstream battery cell prices fell by 0.5% [1][2] - Batteries: Cobalt prices rose by 9.8%, while nickel prices fell by 1.1%. Lithium prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 10.2%, while carbonate and hydroxide prices fell slightly. Strong demand for electrolytes in energy storage is pushing core material prices up [1][2] - New Energy Vehicles: In September 2025, retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles increased by 6.3% YoY, with new energy vehicle sales up by 15.5% YoY, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [1][2] Real Estate Chain - Steel: Rebar prices fell by 1.7%, with futures down by 2.1%. Daily crude steel production increased by 7.3% in early October, while steel product output decreased by 1.7% [2] - Cement: National cement price index fell by 1.2%, with insufficient demand to support price increases despite supply-side intentions [2] Consumer Sector - Pork: Average price of live pigs fell by 0.1%, while wholesale pork prices dropped by 4.4% [2] - Alcohol: Wholesale prices for premium liquor slightly increased by 0.01% [2] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavators: Sales in September 2025 increased by 25.4% YoY, driven by domestic infrastructure projects and equipment upgrades [2] Cyclical Sector - Precious Metals: Gold prices increased by 5.8%, with silver prices up by 6.5% amid macroeconomic uncertainties [2]

Company Overview - Bid International Holdings Limited was established in 2004 and has developed into a mature IT solutions provider in Thailand, primarily serving financial institutions and government departments [2] - The company has undertaken several large government projects, including an ATM project in 2006, a tsunami detection system in 2010, and a satellite system project in 2014 [2] - The headquarters is located in Bangkok, aiming to secure various projects with different timelines and profitability to build a strong and sustainable business [2] Financial Performance - As of December 31, 2024, Bid International Holdings reported total revenue of 23.23 million yuan, a decrease of 77.5% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -60.93 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3724.02% [1] - The gross profit margin stood at 22%, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 70.54% [1] Stock Performance - As of August 12, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.25%, closing at 24,969.68 points [1] - Bid International Holdings' stock price closed at 0.325 HKD per share, an increase of 60.89%, with a trading volume of 76.8465 million shares and a turnover of 22.1971 million HKD [1] - Over the past month, the stock has seen a cumulative increase of 184.51%, and a year-to-date increase of 188.57%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 24.16% [1] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the software services industry (TTM) is -5.62 times, with a median of -2.56 times [1] - Bid International Holdings has a P/E ratio of -2.46 times, ranking 136th in the industry [1] - Other companies in the industry include Jingtou Transportation Technology (4.07 times), Chanyou Technology (5.27 times), and others with P/E ratios ranging from 5.69 to 6.39 times [1] Upcoming Events - The company is scheduled to disclose its mid-year report for the fiscal year 2025 on August 28, 2025 [3] - On August 8, 2025, the company plans to issue 160 million new shares, representing 16.67% of the enlarged share capital, at a subscription price of 0.11 HKD per share, which is a 17.69% discount to the previous closing price [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates a decline in trading activity, with the CSI 300 index experiencing the largest drop in valuation [1] - Overall valuations have decreased across indices, with the CSI 300 leading the decline [1][4] - Consumer services have shown resilience in PE valuation, while banks have led in PB valuation [4][5] Index Valuation - The CSI 300 index has seen a PE-TTM historical percentile drop of 6.5 percentage points, while the PB-LF historical percentile has decreased by 7.5 percentage points [4][5] - All major indices have experienced a comprehensive decline in valuations, with the CSI 300 index leading the downturn [4][5] Industry Valuation - In terms of PE valuation, consumer services have increased by 1.0 percentage point, while banks have led in PB valuation with a 0.5 percentage point increase [4][5] - The automotive sector is noted for its cost-effectiveness in the PE-G comparison [4] Market Sentiment - Trading activity has decreased, with turnover rates and transaction volumes declining across most indices, except for the ChiNext index, which saw an increase of 2.3% in turnover rate and 8.2% in transaction volume [4][5] - The margin trading balance has risen to 1.98 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.30% increase [4][5] Risk Premium - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the entire A-share market has slightly increased to 4.71%, up by 0.12 percentage points from the previous week [4][5]

Valuation Insights - The overall valuation has increased, with the CSI 1000 leading the gains, rising by 2.5 percentage points in PE-TTM historical percentile[7] - The PB-LF historical percentile for the entire A-share market increased by 3.8 percentage points, with the CSI 1000 also leading in this category[7] - Small-cap stocks have outperformed, with a 2.1 percentage point increase in PE-TTM historical percentile[7] Industry Performance - The machinery sector has shown strong performance, leading in PE valuation with a 3.0 percentage point increase[7] - The oil and petrochemical sector has led in PB valuation, increasing by 3.1 percentage points[7] - The automotive industry is noted for its cost-effectiveness in PE comparison[7] Market Sentiment - Trading activity has increased, with a rise in turnover rate for the ChiNext Index by 5.0%[7] - The average transaction amount for the CSI 1000 rose by 5.8%, while the Shanghai 50 Index saw a decline of 10.3%[7] - The margin financing balance has increased to 1.90 trillion yuan, up by 1.47%[7] Risk Assessment - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the entire A-share market has decreased to 4.73%, down by 0.05 percentage points from the previous week[7] - High uncertainty in the global economy and geopolitical tensions pose risks to market stability[7]