2025 年 11 月 23 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟 行业比较周跟踪（20251115-20251121） 本期投资提示: 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 一、Ａ 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日) ● 1) 指数及板块估值比较: 中证全指（剔除 ST）PE 为 20.6 倍，PB 为 1.7 倍，处于历史 74%和 36%分位; √ √ 上证 50 指数 PE 为 11.9 倍，PB 为 1.3 倍，处于历史 64%和 43%分 ...

证 券 研 2025 年 11 月 23 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20251115-20251121） 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 究 报 告 相关研究 - 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日） ⚫ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证全指（剔除 ST）PE 为 20.6 倍，PB 为 1.7 倍，处于历史 74%和 36%分位； ✓ 上证 50 指数 PE 为 11.9 倍，PB 为 1.3 倍，处于历史 64%和 43%分位； ✓ 中证 500 指数 P ...

2025 年 11 月 16 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20251108-20251114） 本期投资提示： 证 证券分析师 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 行 业 比 较 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 11 月 14 日） ⚫ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证全指（剔除 ST）PE 为 21.5 倍，PB 为 1.8 倍，处于历史 80%和 41%分位； ✓ ...

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of November 7, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.5x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 80th and 41st historical percentiles respectively [2][3] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 39th historical percentiles [2][3] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 41.3x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 58th and 60th historical percentiles [2][3] - The valuation of the semiconductor industry is notably high, with a PE of 99.7x, placing it at the 76th historical percentile [7] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemicals, and IT Services [2][3] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][3] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile include Medical Services and White Goods [2][3] Sector Performance Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain saw a price decline, with polysilicon futures down 6.2% and silicon wafer prices down 3.9% [3] - Battery material prices showed mixed trends, with cobalt down 3.2% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up 8.1% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar fell by 1.7%, while iron ore prices decreased by 3.4% [3] - Cement prices increased slightly by 0.1%, but demand remains weak [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs dropped by 4.6%, while wholesale pork prices rose by 2.4% [3] - The price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.15% [3] Technology Sector - The semiconductor sales in China grew by 15.0% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a positive trend in the sector [3] Commodity Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.1% to $63.7 per barrel, while coal prices increased due to stricter safety inspections and winter storage demand [3]

Valuation Summary - The current PE and PB ratios for major indices are as follows: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE is 21.3x, PB is 1.8x, at historical percentiles of 79% and 39% respectively - SSE 50 Index PE is 12.0x, PB is 1.3x, at historical percentiles of 65% and 43% respectively - CSI 500 Index PE is 33.4x, PB is 2.2x, at historical percentiles of 63% and 45% respectively - ChiNext Index PE is 41.3x, PB is 5.2x, at historical percentiles of 36% and 57% respectively - CSI 1000 Index PE is 45.7x, PB is 2.4x, at historical percentiles of 65% and 44% respectively - National 2000 Index PE is 58.9x, PB is 2.5x, at historical percentiles of 76% and 58% respectively - STAR 50 Index PE is 174.7x, PB is 6.1x, at historical percentiles of 98% and 67% respectively - North Exchange 50 Index PE is 67.4x, PB is 5.1x, at historical percentiles of 88% and 93% respectively - ChiNext Index relative to CSI 300 PE is 2.9x, PB is 3.5x, at historical percentiles of 22% and 56% respectively [1][2][4] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile historically include: Real Estate, Steel, and IT Services (Software Development) - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile historically include: Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile historically include: White Goods [1][2][5] Industry Midstream Sentiment Tracking New Energy - Photovoltaics: Post-holiday, downstream spot prices slightly declined. Upstream polysilicon futures prices increased by 6.3%, while spot prices remained stable. Midstream silicon wafer prices remained consistent, with potential production increases in Q4. Downstream battery cell prices fell by 0.5% [1][2] - Batteries: Cobalt prices rose by 9.8%, while nickel prices fell by 1.1%. Lithium prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 10.2%, while carbonate and hydroxide prices fell slightly. Strong demand for electrolytes in energy storage is pushing core material prices up [1][2] - New Energy Vehicles: In September 2025, retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles increased by 6.3% YoY, with new energy vehicle sales up by 15.5% YoY, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [1][2] Real Estate Chain - Steel: Rebar prices fell by 1.7%, with futures down by 2.1%. Daily crude steel production increased by 7.3% in early October, while steel product output decreased by 1.7% [2] - Cement: National cement price index fell by 1.2%, with insufficient demand to support price increases despite supply-side intentions [2] Consumer Sector - Pork: Average price of live pigs fell by 0.1%, while wholesale pork prices dropped by 4.4% [2] - Alcohol: Wholesale prices for premium liquor slightly increased by 0.01% [2] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavators: Sales in September 2025 increased by 25.4% YoY, driven by domestic infrastructure projects and equipment upgrades [2] Cyclical Sector - Precious Metals: Gold prices increased by 5.8%, with silver prices up by 6.5% amid macroeconomic uncertainties [2]

Group 1: A-Share Valuation Overview - The current PE for the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) is 21.8 times, and the PB is 1.8 times, positioned at the historical 81% and 42% percentiles respectively [1][4] - The PE for the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.8 times, and the PB is 1.3 times, at the historical 63% and 40% percentiles [1][4] - The PE for the ChiNext Index is 43.8 times, and the PB is 5.5 times, at the historical 43% and 62% percentiles [1][4] Group 2: Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Automation Equipment, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, Electronics (Semiconductors), and IT Services [1][7] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [1][7] - The White Goods industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [1][7] Group 3: Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking - In the New Energy sector, the price of polysilicon futures decreased by 3.8% as of October 10, while the average price of battery cells and photovoltaic modules increased by 2.8% and 0.4% respectively [1][2] - In the Real Estate chain, the price of rebar increased by 0.4%, while cement prices fell by 0.5% due to high inventory levels [2] - In the Consumer sector, the average price of live pigs dropped by 10.9%, indicating increased supply pressure [2] Group 4: Technology and TMT Sector Insights - The semiconductor sales in China grew by 12.4% year-on-year in August 2025, with global semiconductor sales increasing by 21.7% [2] - The semiconductor market in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China and Japan) saw a growth of 43.1% [2] Group 5: Commodity and Energy Sector Analysis - Brent crude oil futures closed at $62.09 per barrel, down 3.5% [2] - The price of thermal coal increased by 1.1% to 709 RMB per ton, supported by maintenance activities affecting supply [2] - The price of copper decreased by 3.0%, while aluminum increased by 1.6% [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights various sectors' valuations and historical percentiles, indicating potential investment opportunities and areas of caution [1][2]. Core Insights - The report tracks the valuation of A-shares as of September 12, 2025, with the overall market PE at 21.5 times, indicating it is at the 81st percentile historically [2][5]. - Key sectors with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Building Materials, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic), National Defense, Automation Equipment, Light Industry Manufacturing, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][3]. - The report notes that the photovoltaic industry is experiencing price increases in the supply chain, while the battery materials market shows mixed price movements [2][3]. Valuation Comparison - The report provides a detailed comparison of various indices and sectors, highlighting that the ChiNext Index has a PE of 42.3 times, at the 39th percentile historically, while the STAR 50 Index has a PE of 184.3 times, at the 100th percentile [2][5]. - The report indicates that no industries are currently in the historical 15th percentile or below for both PE and PB valuations [2][3]. Sector-Specific Summaries New Energy - Photovoltaic prices are rising, with upstream polysilicon prices down by 5.5% and downstream battery prices up by 0.3% [2][3]. - The report notes a 7.5% year-on-year increase in domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles in August 2025, although growth is expected to slow in the coming months [2][3]. Real Estate Chain - The report indicates a 1.0% decrease in rebar prices and a 1.2% increase in cement prices, reflecting a mixed outlook for the construction materials sector [2][3]. Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.1%, while wholesale pork prices increased by 0.2%, indicating a weak market for pork [2][3]. Technology (TMT) - The semiconductor market saw a 10.4% year-on-year increase in sales in July 2025, although growth is slowing due to inventory adjustments [2][3]. Cyclical Industries - The report highlights a 1.8% increase in Brent crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, while coal prices show mixed trends [2][3]. Key Industry Valuations - The report lists specific industry valuations, such as Real Estate at a PE of -6.9 and Steel at -1047.8, indicating significant challenges in these sectors [2][8]. Overall Market Trends - The report notes that the overall market is experiencing a mixed sentiment, with some sectors showing resilience while others face headwinds due to economic conditions and policy changes [2][3].

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 20.5 times, positioned at the historical 86th percentile [2][3] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.5 times, at the historical 60th percentile [2][3] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 36.2 times, at the historical 23rd percentile [2][3] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 147.1 times, at the historical 100th percentile [2][3] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Building Materials, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, and Light Industry Manufacturing [2][3] - The Electronic industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][3] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][3] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the upstream polysilicon futures price increased by 4.1%, while downstream battery and silicon photovoltaic module prices showed weak price increases [2][3] - In the battery sector, lithium prices saw significant increases, with lithium carbonate rising by 15.9% and lithium hydroxide by 13.1% [2][3] Financial Sector - The non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks was 1.49% in Q2 2025, down by 2.2 basis points from Q1 [2][3] - The net interest margin was 1.42%, down by 1.3 basis points from Q1 [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The national commodity housing sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year from January to July 2025, indicating a gradual end to the previous backlog of demand [2][3] - Real estate development investment completed from January to July 2025 decreased by 12.0% year-on-year [2][3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.4%, while the wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.8% [2][3] - Retail sales from January to July 2025 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with July's growth rate of 3.7% falling short of expectations [2][3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment and narrow infrastructure investment grew by 6.2% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively, from January to July 2025 [2][3] - The output of industrial robots increased by 32.9% year-on-year from January to July 2025 [2][3] Technology TMT - The domestic integrated circuit output grew by 10.4% year-on-year from January to July 2025 [2][3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.3%, closing at $66.13 per barrel [2][3] - The price of thermal coal increased by 2.3%, closing at 698 yuan per ton [2][3]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.8 times, at the historical 79th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 33.9 times, at the historical 18th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 139.8 times, at the historical 99th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, and Aviation [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - The price of polysilicon futures has risen by 8.2% to above 45,000 yuan, indicating a recovery in the market [2] - Battery cell prices increased by 7.7%, while prices for silicon wafers remained stable [2] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.0%, while iron ore prices rose by 3.2% [2] - The national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.6%, while the wholesale price of pork increased by 0.3% [3] - Retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with June's growth down to 4.8% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while narrow infrastructure investment grew by 4.6% [3] - The production of industrial robots increased by 35.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits increased by 8.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Cyclicals - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 2.0% to $69.23 per barrel [3] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 23.4%, reaching its highest level since September 2024 [3]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the CSI A-shares is 19.7 times, positioned at the historical 78th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 29.5 times, at the historical 51st percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 33.1 times, at the historical 16th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 39.7 times, at the historical 55th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the National CSI 2000 Index is 52.1 times, at the historical 69th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 137.8 times, at the historical 98th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 67.5 times, at the historical 94th percentile [2][5] - The ChiNext Index PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.5 times, at the historical 7th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, Aviation and Airports, Light Industry Manufacturing, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and Computer (IT Services, Software Development) [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - No industries have both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream prices continue to rebound due to expectations of "anti-involution" policies, with polysilicon futures prices rising by 15.5% and spot prices by 17.1% [2][3] - In the battery sector, cobalt and nickel prices decreased by 1.7% and 1.0% respectively, while lithium carbonate prices increased by 3.1% [2][3] - In June 2025, the retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in China increased by 18.1% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles seeing a 29.7% increase [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The spot price of rebar increased by 1.7%, while iron ore prices rose by 2.8% [2][3] - The national cement price index decreased by 1.6% due to slow inventory digestion [2][3] - Glass prices saw a slight increase, with spot prices up by 0.5% [2][3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.5%, while wholesale pork prices increased by 0.1% [2][3] - The wholesale price index for liquor increased slightly by 0.04% [2][3] - Corn prices fell by 0.7%, while wheat prices decreased by 0.2% [2][3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales increased by 13.0% year-on-year in May 2025, although the growth rate slowed compared to April [2][3] Cyclicals - Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 3.1% to $70.63 per barrel, driven by summer travel and power generation demand [2][3] - The price of thermal coal increased by 1.4% due to rising consumption during the summer peak [2][3]