相关研究 2026 年 01 月 04 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟 行业比较周跟踪 (20251227-20260102) 本期投资提示: 申万宏源研究微信服务号 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一、Ａ 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日) 1) 指数及板块估值比较: ● 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE 为 21.6 倍，PB 为 1.8 倍，处于历史 81%和 42%分位; √ √ 上证 50 PE 为 11.8 倍，PB 为 1.3 倍，处于历史 63%和 43%分位 ...

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of December 31, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.6x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 81st and 42nd historical percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index has a PE of 11.8x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 63rd and 43rd historical percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 14.2x and a PB of 1.5x, at the 65th and 39th historical percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 Index shows a PE of 33.8x and a PB of 2.3x, at the 64th and 51st historical percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 40.8x and a PB of 5.5x, at the 35th and 63rd historical percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile include Medical Services and White Goods [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the average price of silicon wafers increased by 10.8%, while battery cell prices rose by 11.8% [2] - The price of cobalt increased by 6.8% and nickel by 5.5%, while lithium carbonate prices rose by 0.9% [2] Technology TMT - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 2.2%, and the Taiwan Semiconductor Index increased by 5.1% [3] - The DXI Index (DRAM output value) increased by 7.2%, driven by strong demand for high-performance products related to AI computing [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.1%, while iron ore prices rose by 1.5% [3] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.3% [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs increased by 10.4%, while wholesale pork prices rose by 1.4% [3] - The price of Moutai liquor decreased by 3.5% to 1505 CNY [3] Cyclical Industries - The price of copper increased by 2.7%, while aluminum rose by 2.2% [3] - Brent crude oil futures closed at 60.8 USD per barrel, down 2.4% [3]

A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 2025 年 12 月 28 日 ——行业比较周跟踪（20251220-20251226） 本期投资提示： 相关研究 - 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 策 略 研 究 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 比 较 证 券 研 究 报 告 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日） ⚫ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE 为 21.6 倍，PB 为 1.8 倍，处于历史 81%和 42%分位； ✓ ...

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 19, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.1 times and a PB of 1.8 times, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.7 times and a PB of 1.3 times, at the 61st and 40th historical percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 14 times and a PB of 1.5 times, at the 62nd and 34th historical percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.9 times and a PB of 5.4 times, at the 32nd and 61st historical percentiles [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile [2] Industry Economic Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain prices remained stable, with battery cell spot prices rebounding by 8.1% [2] - The price of polysilicon futures increased by 6.4%, while the price of lithium carbonate rose by 7.4% [2] - Concerns about tightening lithium supply emerged due to local mining permit cancellations [2] Real Estate Chain - The average sales area of commercial housing in China from January to November 2025 decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 15.9% [3] - The price of rebar increased by 1.2%, while iron ore prices rose by 1.6% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.9%, while the wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% [3] - Retail sales from January to November 2025 grew by 4.0% year-on-year, showing a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous ten months [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment from January to November 2025 increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% [3] - Heavy truck sales in November 2025 surged by 65.4% year-on-year, with new energy heavy trucks seeing a significant increase in sales [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits and optoelectronic devices in China increased by 10.6% and 9.7% year-on-year respectively [3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.1% to $60.55 per barrel, amid rising supply pressures [3] - The price of thermal coal decreased by 5.6%, while coking coal prices rose by 0.5% [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights specific sectors with high and low valuation percentiles [2][8]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall valuation of the A-share market is at historical high percentiles, with the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) PE at 21.1x and PB at 1.8x, placing it at the 77th and 39th percentiles historically [2][6]. - The report identifies sectors with PE valuations above the 85th percentile, including Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services, while sectors like Medical Services are noted for being below the 15th percentile in both PE and PB valuations [2][8]. Industry Valuation Comparison - The report provides a detailed comparison of various indices and sectors, highlighting their PE and PB ratios along with their historical percentiles: - CSI 500 PE at 32.6x (61st percentile) and PB at 2.2x (46th percentile) [2][6]. - The ChiNext Index PE at 39.9x (32nd percentile) and PB at 5.4x (61st percentile) [2][6]. - Real Estate sector PE at 58.9x (94th percentile) and PB at 6.8x (9th percentile) [8]. - Semiconductor sector PE at 95.5x (73rd percentile) and PB at 6.3x (90th percentile) [8]. Industry Midstream Sentiment Tracking - In the New Energy sector, the report notes stable prices in the photovoltaic industry chain, with battery prices increasing by 8.1% due to rising silver prices [2][4]. - The Real Estate sector shows a decline in sales area by 7.8% year-on-year, with a significant drop in investment and new construction areas [2][4]. - The Consumer sector reports a 4.0% year-on-year growth in retail sales, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [2][4]. - Manufacturing investment has increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment has decreased by 1.1% [2][4]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report highlights that the steel prices have increased by 1.2% for rebar, while cement prices have risen by 0.4% [2][4]. - In the Technology sector, integrated circuit production has grown by 10.6% year-on-year, indicating a robust demand for electronic components [2][4]. - The report also notes fluctuations in commodity prices, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 2.8% [2][4].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 12, 2025, shows the following PE and PB ratios: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21x, PB at 1.8x, at historical percentiles of 77% and 39% respectively - SSE 50 PE at 11.7x, PB at 1.3x, at historical percentiles of 62% and 40% - CSI 300 PE at 13.9x, PB at 1.4x, at historical percentiles of 61% and 31% - CSI 500 PE at 32.7x, PB at 2.2x, at historical percentiles of 61% and 45% - CSI 1000 PE at 46.6x, PB at 2.4x, at historical percentiles of 66% and 45% - National Index 2000 PE at 59.8x, PB at 2.6x, at historical percentiles of 76% and 60% - ChiNext Index PE at 40.7x, PB at 5.2x, at historical percentiles of 35% and 59% - Sci-Tech 50 PE at 152.3x, PB at 6x, at historical percentiles of 96% and 63% - ChiNext Index/CSI 300 PE at 2.9x, PB at 3.6x, at historical percentiles of 23% and 58% [2][3][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include: - Real Estate, Retail Trade, and IT Services (Software Development) - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include: - Electronics (Semiconductors) and Telecommunications - Industries with both PE and PB below the historical 15th percentile include: - Medical Services [2][3][7] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - Photovoltaics: - Upstream prices remain stable, with polysilicon futures down 2.9% - Demand expected to remain weak before the Spring Festival, limiting price increases - Batteries: - Cobalt and nickel prices down 0.8% and 1.4% respectively - Lithium prices show an upward trend, with lithium hexafluorophosphate up 0.3% and carbonate up 3.4% - New Energy Vehicles: - Retail sales of new energy vehicles grew 4.2% year-on-year in November 2025, but growth rate slowed [2][3][6] Real Estate Chain - Steel: - Rebar prices down 1.3% and futures down 3.1% - Daily crude steel production down 6.5% month-on-month - Building Materials: - Cement price index up 0.1%, while glass prices down 2.5% [2][3][6] Consumption - Pork: - Average price of live pigs up 2.5%, while wholesale pork price down 1.0% - Baijiu: - Wholesale price index up 0.02%, but prices for premium brands like Moutai down significantly [2][3][6] Cyclical Industries - Non-ferrous Metals: - LME copper down 1.0%, aluminum down 0.9%, while zinc up 1.3% - Oil: - Brent crude oil futures down 4.1% to $61.22 per barrel - Coal: - Prices for thermal coal down 5.1% due to increased supply [2][3][6]

2025 年 12 月 14 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟 行业比较周跟踪（20251206-20251212） 本期投资提示: 相关研究 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一、Ａ 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日) ● 1) 指数及板块估值比较: 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE 为 21 倍，PB 为 1.8 倍，处于历史 77%和 39%分位; √ √ 上证 50 PE 为 11.7 倍，PB 为 1.3 倍，处于历史 62%和 40%分位; √ ...

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 5, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) with a PE of 21.1x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai 50 index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 63rd and 42nd percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 300 index has a PE of 14.0x and a PB of 1.5x, at the 62nd and 32nd percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 500 index shows a PE of 32.4x and a PB of 2.2x, at the 60th and 43rd percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext index has a PE of 39.8x and a PB of 5.1x, at the 32nd and 57th percentiles [2][5] - The STAR 50 index has a PE of 149.6x and a PB of 5.9x, at the 95th and 62nd percentiles [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][3] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][3] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile [2][3] Industry Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain continues to show weakness, with upstream polysilicon futures prices down 1.6% and silicon material prices stable [2][3] - Battery materials like cobalt and nickel saw increases of 2.2% and 0.4% respectively, while lithium hexafluorophosphate prices rose by 3.0% [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.8%, while iron ore prices fell by 0.3% [3] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.4%, and glass prices showed mixed trends with a 0.7% increase in spot prices [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.1%, while wholesale pork prices decreased by 0.8% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.06% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales in November 2025 increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 9.1% and exports up by 18.8% [3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales in October 2025 grew by 18.5% year-on-year, with global semiconductor sales increasing by 27.2% [3] Commodities - The Brent crude oil futures price rose by 1.1% to $63.86 per barrel, supported by OPEC+ decisions to maintain current production targets [3]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 5, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.1 times and PB at 1.8 times, positioned at the historical 77% and 39% percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.9 times and PB at 1.3 times, at the historical 63% and 42% percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14 times and PB at 1.5 times, at the historical 62% and 32% percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 32.4 times and PB at 2.2 times, at the historical 60% and 43% percentiles [2] - The CSI 1000 PE is at 46.5 times and PB at 2.4 times, at the historical 66% and 44% percentiles [2] - The National Index 2000 PE is at 59.5 times and PB at 2.6 times, at the historical 76% and 60% percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 39.8 times and PB at 5.1 times, at the historical 32% and 57% percentiles [2] - The Sci-Tech 50 PE is at 149.6 times and PB at 5.9 times, at the historical 95% and 62% percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index/CSI 300 PE is at 2.8 times and PB at 3.5 times, at the historical 20% and 57% percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, prices continue to show weakness, with upstream polysilicon futures down 1.6% and spot prices stable [3] - Battery materials like cobalt and nickel saw increases of 2.2% and 0.4% respectively, while lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 3.0% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.8%, while iron ore prices fell by 0.3% [3] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.4%, and glass prices showed mixed trends with a 0.7% increase in spot prices [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.1%, while wholesale pork prices decreased by 0.8% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.06% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales in November 2025 increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 9.1% [3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales in October 2025 grew by 18.5% year-on-year, with global semiconductor sales up by 27.2% [3] Cyclical Industries - The copper price increased by 4.4%, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.1% to $63.86 per barrel [3]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market shows that the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) has a PE of 21.0x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 77th and 38th historical percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.8x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 63rd and 42nd percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.2x and a PB of 5.1x, at the 30th and 56th percentiles [2] - The STAR 50 Index has a PE of 149.7x and a PB of 5.9x, at the 95th and 62nd percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile [2] Industry Midstream Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream polysilicon futures prices increased by 7.0%, while the average price of silicon wafers fell by 3.1% [2] - Battery materials saw cobalt prices rise by 1.1% and nickel by 2.4%, with lithium hexafluorophosphate prices increasing by 6.7% [2] - Wind and solar power installations from January to October 2025 increased by 52.9% and 39.5% year-on-year, respectively [2] Financial Sector - Insurance premiums from January to October 2025 grew by 8.0% year-on-year, with a slight deceleration compared to the previous nine months [2] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.9%, while the price index for cement fell by 0.7% [2] - Glass prices rose by 1.5% for spot prices and 5.7% for futures [2] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.9%, while the wholesale price of pork fell by 0.4% [2] - The price index for liquor saw a slight increase of 0.04% [2] Midstream Manufacturing - The value of overseas contracted engineering projects increased by 7.9% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [2] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.1% to $63.19 per barrel [2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 12.5% [2]