Report Title - Black Metal Weekly Report - Steel Products [1] Report Date - November 24, 2025 [3] Report Author - Bai Jing [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Currently, the investment - end data is still weak, and domestic demand is underperforming. High - frequency data shows that exports maintain strong resilience, and the advantage of trading at lower prices for higher volumes still exists. The steel industry is in a production - cut stage, but due to the lack of significant losses in ton - steel profits, production reduction is not smooth. The current fundamentals lack driving force, with intense long - short game. The main contract is in the roll - over stage, short - term positive spreads are widening and volatility has increased. Attention should be paid to the integer thresholds and off - peak electricity costs for the unilateral fluctuation range of rebar, and operations should be cautious [7] Summary by Directory 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Price**: Last week, domestic steel spot prices showed mixed trends. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3190 yuan (+30), and the price of hot - rolled coil was 3200 yuan (-60) [6] - **Production and Inventory**: On November 20, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 15.53 tons. The factory inventory of the five major products decreased by 12.27 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 31.98 tons. The apparent demand was 894.16 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33.56 tons [6] - **Profit**: As of November 21, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive cost of rebar was 3212 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about - 22 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil was about - 6 yuan. For electric furnaces in East China, the flat - rate electricity cost was about 3253 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3122 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar was about - 153 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 22 yuan [6] - **Scrap Steel**: As of November 20, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 34%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 50.8 tons, a 0.11 - ton decrease. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 23.5 tons/day, a 0.19 - ton increase, and the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 16.8 tons, a 7.1% increase. The average daily arrival of 255 steel mills was 49.5 tons, a 1.5% increase. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 502.9 tons, a 2.1% increase. Overall, the iron - scrap price difference continued to strengthen, short - process steelmaking remained in a loss state, and the overall demand was still weak. Scrap steel prices may fluctuate slightly following steel prices [7] 2. Macroeconomic Data - **Steel Production**: In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a 1.7% decrease from 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a 2.3% decrease. From January to October 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 711 million tons, a 1.8% decrease from the same period in 2024, and the cumulative crude steel output was 818 million tons, a 3.9% decrease [17] - **PMI**: In October 2025, the PMI was 49%, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing expansion [21] - **Investment Data**: From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.08914 trillion yuan, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. In October, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 8.91% year - on - year, manufacturing investment decreased by 6.67%, and real estate development investment decreased by 23.22% [25] - **Real Estate Data**: From January to October, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year decrease; the new construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a 19.8% decrease; the completed area was 348.61 million square meters, a 16.9% decrease [28] 3. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - **Spread between Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar**: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar narrowed this week [37] 4. Supply - Side Data - **Long - Process Supply**: As of November 21, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.6%, a 0.25% decrease from the previous week; the average daily pig iron output was 236.3 tons, a 0.25% decrease [41] - **Short - Process Supply**: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric arc furnace plants was 34%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease. As of November 21, the iron - scrap price difference was 66.02 yuan, a 30.39 - yuan increase [44] - **Rebar Production**: This week, the original sample rebar output was 207.96 tons, an increase of 7.96 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 181.17 tons, an increase of 9.26 tons, and the short - process output was 26.79 tons, a decrease of 1.3 tons [56] 5. Demand - Side Data - **Building Materials Transactions**: Data on building materials transactions in different regions are presented, but specific demand trends are not clearly summarized [58] - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating load of cement mills this period was 38.55%, a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase. Although the market has entered the off - season, there is some rush - construction demand in some provinces, driving up the mill operating rate [67] - **Real Estate Sales**: High - frequency sales data of 30 major cities in the real estate market are presented, but specific demand trends are not clearly summarized [68] 6. Inventory Data - **Rebar Inventory**: The original sample rebar factory inventory was 153.32 tons, a decrease of 7.1 tons; the social inventory was 400.02 tons, a decrease of 15.73 tons; the total inventory was 553.34 tons, a decrease of 22.83 tons [73] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: This week, the hot - rolled coil output was 316.01 tons, a 2.35 - ton increase. The apparent demand was 324.42 tons, a 10.83 - ton increase. The factory inventory increased by 0.5 tons, the social inventory decreased by 8.91 tons, and the overall inventory decreased by 8.41 tons [76] 7. Export Data - As of November 21, the FOB export price of China was 445 US dollars, a 5 - dollar increase; the export profit was - 19.1 US dollars, a 4.2 - dollar increase. The outbound volume from 32 major domestic ports was 305.3 tons, an 8% decrease [87]

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3,180 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3,220 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3,270 yuan (-10), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3,210 yuan (-10) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis Core Viewpoints - The black metal sector fluctuated and declined today, with coking coal and coke leading the decline. Steel spot trading was generally weak, with mainly rigid demand at low prices. This week, the overall production of the five major steel products increased, and with the repair of EAF profits, rebar production resumed at an accelerated pace. The destocking speed of the total steel inventory accelerated this week, and the apparent demand for steel significantly recovered, with rebar performing better than hot-rolled coil. Recently, some blast furnaces have resumed production, but there is still room for a reduction in molten iron in the future. Affected by coal supply guarantee and the target of 100 million tons of Mongolian coal shipments, coking coal and coke prices have accelerated their decline recently, while steel and iron ore prices have risen, and the futures market has pre - reacted to the third round of coke price cuts. In the fourth quarter, the release of funds has slowed down, downstream payment collection is difficult, and the number of projects has decreased year - on - year, so there is still pressure on the upside. However, there is a structural shortage of PB iron ore powder, and the increase in coking coal supply is limited, so there is support for steel costs. Therefore, steel prices will still fluctuate within a range in the short term, and more factors are needed to break the situation. But hot-rolled coil still performs better than rebar overall, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle. [5] Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: The steel price will maintain a weak oscillating trend within a range [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position of the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Important Information - The overall production of the five major steel products increased by 15530 tons. The factory inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 12270 tons month - on - month, the social inventory decreased by 31980 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 44250 tons. [9] - The November Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was announced: the over - 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, the same as last month; the 1 - year LPR is 3%, the same as last month. [9] Group 3: Related Attachments - The attachments include various price and spread charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil, such as price charts, basis charts, spread charts, and profit charts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [10][13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a weak downward trend, with fluctuating demand and supply dynamics affecting prices and inventory levels [6] Pricing - Tangshan steel billet remains stable at 3040 yuan, while Shanghai rebar increased by 10 yuan to 3060 yuan per ton, and hot-rolled coil also rose by 10 yuan to 3300 yuan per ton [1] Cost and Profit - The operating rate and daily output of coal mines remain low, leading to a decrease in coal inventories. Iron ore demand remains high, contributing to inventory accumulation. Steel profits have significantly declined from their peak, with cold-rolled steel showing the highest profit, followed by steel billets, hot-rolled, and rebar [2] Supply - From January to October, iron element production increased by 4.5% year-on-year. Although molten iron production has recently declined, it has shown a month-on-month increase of 26,600 tons to 2,368,800 tons. Seasonal production cuts due to high inventory levels have led to a decrease in the output of the five major steel products [3] Demand - Domestic demand expectations remain weak, while exports are at a high level, supported by low prices. Overall demand has decreased compared to the first half of the year and is weaker than the fourth quarter of last year, with a month-on-month decline of 63,000 tons to 8,600,000 tons [4] Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 263,000 tons to 14,773,500 tons, with rebar inventory down by 164,000 tons to 5,762,000 tons. Hot-rolled coil inventory slightly increased by 700 tons to 4,100,000 tons, indicating a need for further production cuts to alleviate inventory pressure [5] Market Outlook - The market is characterized by a weak price trend, with the price difference between rebar and hot-rolled coil recovering to 215 yuan. The supply-demand dynamics for rebar and hot-rolled coil are diverging, with rebar showing an increase in both supply and demand, while hot-rolled coil remains balanced. Iron ore port inventories continue to accumulate, suggesting a shift towards a loose supply of iron elements in the near future [6]

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3190 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3220 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3280 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3220 yuan (+10) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The black metal sector fluctuated and declined today, with coking coal and coke leading the decline, and iron ore remaining strong. Steel spot trading was generally weak, mainly driven by low-price rigid demand [5] - According to Buguwang data, building materials and hot-rolled coils continued to reduce production this week, and molten iron flowed into other sectors. The reduction in rebar production was greater than that of plates. Steel inventories decreased rapidly, but manufacturing demand was fair, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils improved, while the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline [5] - It is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline, squeezing raw materials and causing the steel price center to shift downward. In the fourth quarter, capital release has slowed down, downstream payment collection has been difficult, and the number of projects has decreased year-on-year, so there is still pressure on the upside. However, the recent reduction in steel production has alleviated some pressure, and the main fluctuations come from raw materials [5] - Currently, steel valuations are low, and the market will continue to fluctuate. Breaking the deadlock requires more factors. However, hot-rolled coils have generally performed better than rebar, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a weak range-bound trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position on the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Important Information - According to Aoweiyunwang's total data, the retail sales volume of air conditioners in October decreased by 23.8% year-on-year. From the monthly monitoring data, the sales volume online and offline decreased by 22.2% and 42.3% respectively in October, and the decline offline continued to expand. In terms of production, Aoweiyunwang's latest production schedule data shows that the domestic sales production schedule for air conditioners in December is 4.822 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%, and the export production schedule is 9.074 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%. The balance between domestic and export sales in the peak export season in December has been broken [9] - On November 18, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in October 2025, China's excavator production was 30,880 units, a year-on-year increase of 13%. From January to October 2025, China's excavator production was 308,062 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [10]

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3200 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3220 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3290 yuan (-20), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3210 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Outlook - The black metal sector showed divergence today, with coal and coke dropping significantly, iron ore continuing to rise, and steel maintaining a volatile and moderately strong trend. Steel spot trading volume was generally weak, significantly weaker than yesterday [5] - Last week's data showed a slight resumption of blast furnace production, but the overall output of the five major steel products still declined, with rebar production cut more than plate. Total steel inventories continued to decline, but hot-rolled coils saw a slight increase in inventory. Except for cold-rolled steel, the apparent demand for each steel product declined, suppressing steel price performance [5] - It is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline, squeezing raw materials and causing the steel price center to shift downward. In the fourth quarter, capital release has slowed down, downstream payment collection is difficult, and the number of projects has decreased year-on-year, still exerting pressure on the upside. However, recent steel production cuts and plate inventory reduction have alleviated some pressure, with the main fluctuations coming from raw materials. Currently, steel valuations are low, and the market will continue to fluctuate. Breaking the situation requires more factors. However, hot-rolled coils are still performing better than rebar overall, and it is expected that the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar will still be in an expansion cycle [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend within a range [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold long positions in the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Important Information - In October 2025, China's rebar production was 14.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%; the cumulative production from January to October was 158.01 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. In October, China's medium and heavy wide strip steel production was 18.145 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%; the cumulative production from January to October was 187.496 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. In October, China's wire rod (coil) production was 10.861 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; the cumulative production from January to October was 113.005 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [9] - In October 2025, China's air conditioner production was 14.204 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%; the cumulative production from January to October was 230.344 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. In October, the national refrigerator production was 8.788 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%; the cumulative production from January to October was 89.959 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. In October, the national washing machine production was 11.035 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%; the cumulative production from January to October was 101.078 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. In October, the national color TV production was 18.04 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; the cumulative production from January to October was 166.176 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector strengthened overall today. Steel spot transactions were generally fair, mainly driven by low - price speculation and futures - cash transactions. - Last week's data showed that blast furnaces continued to cut production, and overall steel output declined, with a greater reduction in rebar production than in plate production. Total steel inventories continued to decrease, but hot - rolled coils slightly increased in stock. The apparent demand for all steel products except cold - rolled coils declined, and the supply - demand structure suppressed steel prices. - Recently, the rapid reduction in hot metal production squeezed raw materials, causing the center of steel prices to shift downward. In the fourth quarter, the release of funds slowed down, downstream payment collection was difficult, and the number of projects decreased year - on - year, creating upward pressure. - However, the 2025 central safety production assessment and inspection has officially started, making it difficult for coking coal supply to increase significantly, which provides cost support for steel. - In the short term, steel prices will maintain a range - bound fluctuation, and more factors are needed to break the situation. Hot - rolled coils generally perform better than rebar, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was priced at 3190 yuan (+30), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3220 yuan (+30), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coils at 3290 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coils at 3210 yuan (+20). [4] Market Research and Judgment Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Steel prices will maintain a range - bound and slightly upward trend. [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. [8] Important Information - In September 2025, China's engineering machinery import and export trade volume reached 5.505 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 29.1%. Among them, the import volume was 234 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 18.5%, and the export volume was 5.271 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 29.6%. - In October 2025, China produced 72 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%, with a daily output of 2.3226 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.2%; 65.55 million tons of pig iron, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, with a daily output of 2.1145 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4%; and 118.64 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%, with a daily output of 3.8271 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6%. From January to October, the cumulative production of crude steel was 818 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.6904 million tons; pig iron was 711 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.34 million tons; and steel was 1.218 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, with a cumulative daily output of 4.0052 million tons. [9][10] Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts related to steel prices, basis, spreads, and profits of different steel products and contracts, such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, from 2021 to 2025. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. [11][13][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel**: Unilateral observation; wait for the opportunity to enter the spot-futures positive spread [8] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Temporarily observe [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Fluctuating, industrial customers should do appropriate selling hedging [8] - **Iron Ore**: Hold short positions [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Prices temporarily stabilized, with small increases of 10 - 20 yuan on Thursday. Trade volume increased significantly. Future steel production is expected to decline, and in the early stage of production cuts, it may suppress furnace materials, while in the later stage, there may be a driving opportunity for the sector to rise in resonance. Due to the large basis, it is not advisable to short on the disk. It is recommended to reduce exposure through physical positions [2] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by external macro factors, market sentiment declined, and the prices of the two silicons followed the adjustment. In the short term, they may trade based on fundamentals. Currently, there are still concerns in the fundamentals, with high supply, large inventory removal pressure, and weak downstream demand. Prices may fluctuate under pressure [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Mongolian coal customs clearance returned to a high level, and coal mine destocking slowed down. Spot coking coal prices continued to rise due to tight supply. However, considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, falling steel mill profitability, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coal and coke may ease. The market is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, it is recommended to observe unilaterally, and in the long term, go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [4] - **Iron Ore**: There is obvious upward pressure and prices are falling. The supply is within a reasonable range. Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei, molten iron production continued to decline this week. Iron ore port inventories will continue to rise. With weak supply - demand, shorting unilaterally is a good choice [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Fluctuations**: On November 6, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3102.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 11.00 yuan (0.36%); HC2605 closed at 3265.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 7.00 yuan (0.21%); etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3037.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 12.00 yuan (0.40%); HC2601 closed at 3256.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 7.00 yuan (0.22%) [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: On November 6, the spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 65.00 yuan/ton; the coil - to - rebar spread was 219.00 yuan/ton; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.91; etc. [1] Spot Market - **Steel**: On November 6, the prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou rebar were 3200.00 yuan/ton, 3210.00 yuan/ton, and 3260.00 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 30.00 yuan, 50.00 yuan, and 0.00 yuan [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the spot side, coking coal prices continued to rise due to tight supply. The port trade offer for coke was 1560 (-), and the coking coal price index was 1392.6 (+8.7). For Mongolian coal, the market was cold, with prices such as Ganqimaodu Port: Mongolian 5 raw coal at 1165 (-) [4] - **Iron Ore**: The supply was within a reasonable range. Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei, molten iron production continued to decline, and port inventories were expected to rise [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector continued to decline today but rebounded slightly at the end of the session. Steel spot trading was weak overall, with poor speculative interest and mainly刚需 purchases. After the holiday, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern with limited downside space. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. Also, the "15th Five - Year Plan" content will affect market fluctuations. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to expand [8]. - The steel market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and a significant drop in demand. Although the short - term market is affected by news and under pressure, the low valuation of the futures market and the rise in thermal coal prices suggest that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: RB05 was at 3114 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan from yesterday), RB10 at 2970 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan), and RB01 at 3061 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan). The 05 - contract rebar盘面 profit was - 142 yuan (up 7 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 285 yuan (up 19 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 166 yuan (up 9 yuan) [3]. - **Rebar Spot**: Shanghai Zhongtian was at 3180 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Nanjing Xicheng at 3280 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), Shandong Shiheng at 3160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Tangshan Tanggang at 3110 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The cheapest delivery product was 3160 yuan/ton. Rebar profits in different regions showed various changes, with East China rebar profit at - 228 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and Tangshan rebar profit at - 319 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: HC05 was at 3248 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan), HC10 at 3442 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and HC01 at 3241 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面 profit was - 8 yuan (up 6 yuan), the 10 - contract was 187 yuan (up 40 yuan), and the 01 - contract was 14 yuan (up 11 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was at 3220 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was at 3260 - 3290 yuan/ton (down 20 - 30 yuan). The cheapest delivery product was 3260 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil profits in different regions also changed, with Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit at - 341 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan) and East China hot - rolled coil profit at - 227 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan) [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3180 yuan (down 10 yuan), Beijing Jingye was 3130 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan (down 30 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3220 yuan (down 30 yuan) [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Important News** - In September 2025, 19,858 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. Domestic sales were 9,249 units, a year - on - year increase of 21.5%, and exports were 10,609 units, a year - on - year increase of 29%. From January to September, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% [11]. - The Ministry of Transport issued a document on charging port fees for US ships, which has limited impact on iron ore transportation [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil contract basis, spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [15].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: The market is operating at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] Group 3 Industry background - The Ministry of Transport will charge special port fees for US - related ships starting from October 14, 2025, which is a just measure to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese industries and enterprises and the fair competition environment of international shipping [2] - In the first three quarters of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, the imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [2] Steel export and import data - In September 2025, China exported 1046.5 tons of steel, an increase of 95.5 tons from the previous month and a month - on - month increase of 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 8795.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [2] - In September, China imported 54.8 tons of steel, an increase of 4.8 tons from the previous month and a month - on - month increase of 9.6%. From January to September, the cumulative steel imports were 453.2 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% [2] Market performance - The prices of finished products fell yesterday, and both rebar and hot - rolled coil reached new recent lows. The market was more affected by Sino - US trade disputes, and the market risk sentiment cooled down [2] - During the National Day holiday, the fundamentals of finished products were relatively calm, and the weak downstream terminals continued to suppress steel prices. There was a slight differentiation between rebar and hot - rolled coil, with hot - rolled coil under more pressure [2] Outlook - The market will operate at a low level with short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] - Key factors to watch in the later stage include macro - policies and downstream demand [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current Sino - US talks results lack detailed reports, causing the market to fluctuate with unconfirmed news. Fundamentally, the traditional off - season has arrived, leading to a weakening of some steel demand. However, steel mills maintain production through variety switching due to decent orders and profits. The raw material supply remains abundant, so the fundamental drive for a market rebound is weak. Market macro - sentiment fluctuations may cause the market to oscillate, and the pressure of a weakening off - season fundamental situation is gradually emerging [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for rebar is 2800 - 3100 with a current volatility of 11.25% and a volatility percentile of 14.0%. For hot - rolled coils, it is 2900 - 3200 with a current volatility of 11.37% and a volatility percentile of 9.74% [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **High finished - product inventory**: To prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures according to their inventory. For example, sell RB2510 with a 40% hedging ratio at 3000 - 3100 and HC2510 with a 40% ratio at 3120 - 3200. Also, sell call options like RB2510C3200 with a 50% ratio at 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [1]. - **Low procurement inventory**: To avoid rising procurement costs, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures. For instance, buy RB2510 with a 20% ratio at 2850 - 2920 and 2950 - 3030. Sell put options such as RB2510P2700 with a 20% ratio at 30 - 40 to reduce procurement costs [1]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - **Positive factors**: Total steel inventory is not high, and there are no obvious signs of a significant reduction in hot metal production [3]. - **Negative factors**: The recent rebar delivery volume in Hangzhou has decreased significantly; hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory in many places; steel mills plan a fourth round of coke price cuts; iron ore shipments have increased in the past two weeks; and coal mine inventories remain high [4][5]. 3.4 Price Data - **Futures prices**: On June 13, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts showed little daily change but some weekly changes. For example, the rebar 10 - contract closing price was 2968, unchanged daily but down 7 weekly [5]. - **Spot prices**: On June 12, 2025, the rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions had various daily and weekly changes. For example, the Shanghai rebar summary price was 3090, down 20 daily and 10 weekly [5]. 3.5 Other Data - **Hot - rolled coil overseas data**: The FOB export prices and CFR import prices of hot - rolled coils in different countries had different weekly changes on June 12, 2025. For example, the Japanese FOB export price dropped from 510 to 495 [6]. - **Basis data**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils in Shanghai showed certain daily and weekly changes on June 12, 2025. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 128, up 3 daily and down 21 weekly [6]. - **Spread data**: The month - spreads, roll - rebar spreads, rebar - iron ore ratios, and rebar - coke ratios of rebar and hot - rolled coils had different changes on June 13, 2025. For example, the 01 roll - rebar spread was 117, down 7 weekly [7][8][9].