我们预计公司2025-2027 年实现归母净利润5.76/6.47/7.45 亿元，对应PE 分别为24.5/21.8/19.0 倍，维 持"增持"评级。 风险提示：在研项目进度不及预期风险；渠道经营不及预期风险；竞争加剧风险。 在研管线稳步推进，贴敷料龙头优势显著。研发端，截至2025 年上半年公司累计已获批二类医疗器械 注册证，"重组III 型人源化胶原蛋白填充剂"已完成产品设计输入小试。此外，公司重点强化上游原料 端基础研究，创新多肽"节律肽"新原料已于2025 年7 月完成备案，同时NMN、乙酰姜黄酮等新原料的 开发也在稳步推进中，有望构建差异化竞争壁垒。妆品端，公司获得24 年功效化妆品品牌全国复购率 第一，其国产贴片面膜连续五年全国销量第一，线上电商渠道建设持续推进，收入占比从2024 年同期 的50.3%大幅提升至80.5%。 投资建议：公司线上渠道转型成效显著，长期以"南北双研"模式持续夯实研发实力，在III 类注射填充 类医疗器械、创新原料等高壁垒领域加速布局，建议持续关注公司III 类医疗器械的获批进度，以及渠 道结构优化后的盈利能力改善情况。 事件：公司发布2025 年中报。公司1H25 ...

Core Insights - The report titled "2025 Douyin E-commerce Skincare Trend White Paper" analyzes the latest dynamics and future trends of the skincare market on the Douyin e-commerce platform, highlighting a significant upgrade trend by 2025 [1] - Consumer skincare needs have evolved from basic care to a dual focus on "scientific evidence and emotional satisfaction," indicating a shift towards holistic health aesthetics [1] - Douyin e-commerce has become a core platform for the online skincare market, with a noticeable trend towards high-end products, particularly those priced above 1,000 yuan [1] Market Dynamics - Approximately 60% of consumers are increasingly focused on health from within, moving beyond superficial skin management [1] - The supply side is accelerating product upgrades through ingredient technology (e.g., recombinant collagen, neuropeptide-161) and technical innovations (e.g., micro-encapsulation, clock gene technology) [1] Channel and Product Trends - Online channels are continuously gaining market share, with liquid essences and facial oils being particularly popular; single-use essences and masks are seen as blue ocean markets, while sheet masks and facial care sets are in a highly competitive red ocean market [2] - Consumer segments show distinct characteristics, with high-end customization favored by luxury consumers, domestic technology appealing to urban skincare enthusiasts, and practical consumers in smaller towns focusing on cost-effectiveness [2] Key Trends - The skincare sector is divided into two main camps: international brands leading in cell technology and domestic brands focusing on ingredient technology [4] - The medical beauty-related market is growing, with post-operative care and anti-dark spots becoming new demand hotspots [4] - Zone-specific skincare is expanding from the face to full-body care, with significant growth in niche categories like neck masks and nasolabial fold patches [4] - Emotional skincare is becoming more commonplace, leveraging neuroscience and sensory healing to expand categories like essential oils and masks [4] Brand Strategies - Douyin e-commerce supports brands in achieving integrated marketing through various IP activities and live streaming, with brands like Estée Lauder and Zhenyan successfully increasing performance through collaborations and celebrity endorsements [5] Future Outlook - The skincare market on Douyin e-commerce will continue to evolve with changing consumer demands, necessitating brands to innovate and adapt to meet diverse consumer needs [8] - The importance of emotional skincare is emphasized, urging brands to focus on consumers' emotional needs to enhance brand loyalty through emotionally connected products [10]

这可能是一个足以载入商学院教案的故事，一个关于面膜的故事。 现了大量成交均价0 . 3 5元/片的面贴膜以及成交均价0 . 2元甚至0 . 0 5元的泥膜。线上零售额可比 同比下降1 4 . 3 9%，销量可比同比下降2 1 . 0 5%，市场罕见出现了"衰退"迹象。 回顾面膜市场从2 0 11年到2 0 2 2年的发展历程，基本可以总结为"野蛮生长→ 资本涌入 → 过度 竞争 → 价格崩塌→ 市场萎缩" 5个重要阶段。这种由于过度竞争引发价格崩塌进而引发市场萎 缩的现象，我们姑且称为"内卷陷阱"。 但值得注意的是，这并不是故事的大结局。 从《FBe a u t y未来迹》获取的数据来看，中国面膜市场目前正在逐步摆脱"内卷陷阱"。 首先，从成交均价上来看，已经从2 0 1 9年的5 6 . 3 8元/件上升到2 0 2 4年的8 9 . 0 1元/件。在极致 竞争下，面膜品类成交均价的回升意味着消费者对面膜产品溢价空间的认可度在提升。 其次，中国面膜市场的规模仍在持续扩大，且恢复两位数高增长。 据 诺 斯 贝 尔 联 合 用 户 说 发 布 的 《 2 0 2 5 中 国 面 膜 市 场 创 新 与 全 球 ...

Market Size and Growth Characteristics - The online mask market in China is projected to reach 48.4 billion yuan by 2025, with Douyin leading at 26 billion yuan GMV and a growth rate of 32%, surpassing Taobao and Tmall as the core growth engine [1][11] - Sheet masks remain the mainstream product (89% market share on Douyin), while cream masks are experiencing explosive growth with a year-on-year increase of 174.77%, showcasing differentiated growth potential [1][11] - The global mask GMV is expected to reach 20-25 billion USD by 2025 and 30-40 billion USD by 2030, driven by consumption upgrades and technological iterations in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China and India [1][24] Core Consumer Trends and Product Innovations 1. Dual Drive of Efficacy and Emotional Value - Consumer demand is shifting from "ingredient competition" to "emotional value," with the term "self-care skincare" seeing a year-on-year increase of 2169%. Masks are becoming a ritual for self-healing [1][12] - Anti-aging products account for 19% of market share, but 42% of consumers focus on barrier repair, pushing products towards "cell-level precise response" upgrades, such as biomanufacturing and AI customization [1][12] 2. Technological Innovations Reshaping Product Forms - Plant fiber and lyocell mask materials occupy over 50% of the market, with ultrasonic composite mask materials (up 672% year-on-year) enhancing essence penetration [2] - Fresh-lock technology (volume up 244.16%) and freeze-drying technology (volume up 125.33%) preserve active ingredients effectively [2] - Cream masks are expanding from mud-like textures to creams and gels, with innovations like cooling sensations (volume up 477%) and collagen water glow (volume up 498%) enhancing user experience [2] 3. Market Segmentation and Scenario Breakthroughs - Localized care products for specific areas, such as eye and nasolabial fold masks, are seeing significant GMV growth, with products like KAZOO's eye mask providing targeted solutions [3] - Personal care masks for hands, necks, and feet have an online scale of 710 million yuan, with notable growth in Douyin neck masks and Kuaishou foot masks [3] - Four potential categories are emerging: instant (emergency repair), intensive (periodic care), precise (targeted care), and experiential (multi-sensory SPA) masks, reshaping market dynamics [3] Global Market Landscape and Localization Strategies 1. Regional Differentiated Competition - In Southeast Asia, markets in Vietnam and Indonesia have surpassed 100 million yuan in scale within six months, with TikTok Shop as a growth driver, focusing on low-price strategies and localized selections [4][5] - In the US, mid-to-high-end masks account for 84% of the market, emphasizing "collagen + PDRN" anti-aging formulas; Singapore's average transaction price reaches 535.8 yuan, indicating a significant luxury trend [4][5] 2. Sustainability and Technological Integration - Environmental policies are driving the adoption of biodegradable mask materials and bottle recycling initiatives, such as Proya's green packaging plan [6] - Biomanufacturing technologies (e.g., recombinant collagen, microencapsulation) enhance ingredient precision, while the "carbon-negative beauty" concept is gaining traction, with blue algae carbon-sequestering masks seeing a year-on-year volume increase of 125% [6] Future Development Paradigms - The mask industry is expected to exhibit a dual trend of "technological democratization" and "emotional scenarioization," where advanced technologies lower the barriers for high-end ingredients, while fragrance design and skin-specific customization enhance emotional value [7] - Brands need to balance breakthroughs in hard technology (e.g., cell-level repair) with soft power engagement (e.g., cultural resonance) to build competitiveness in the global market through "technological adaptation + localized innovation" [7]