Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential winners of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, focusing on the significance of scientific discoveries and their applications in the medical field, particularly highlighting the discovery of GLP-1 as a strong candidate for the award in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Trends - The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has historically awarded discoveries that are significant in both scientific and practical applications, with a distribution ratio of approximately 3:2 between physiology and medicine since 2001 [1][2]. - The awarding pattern shows a tendency to recognize impactful medical discoveries every few years, with the last notable award in the metabolic research area occurring 40 years ago [6][7]. Group 2: GLP-1 Discovery - The discovery of GLP-1 is considered a major breakthrough in metabolic regulation, with an 85% probability of winning the Nobel Prize due to its significant scientific and practical implications [3][4]. - GLP-1-based drugs, such as semaglutide and tirzepatide, are projected to rank among the top ten global drug sales in 2024, showcasing their widespread application and importance in treating obesity [4][5]. - The recognition of GLP-1's importance has grown in recent years, and it has been a contender for major scientific awards, indicating its readiness for Nobel recognition [6][7]. Group 3: Potential Awardees - Key contributors to the discovery of GLP-1 include Jens Juul Holst and Joel Habener, both with a 100% probability of winning due to their foundational work in identifying and characterizing GLP-1 [8][10]. - Svetlana Mojsov, another significant contributor, has a 75% probability of winning, while Daniel Joshua Drucker and Lotte Knudsen have lower probabilities of 20% and 5%, respectively, due to their roles being more focused on later developments rather than the initial discovery [12][15][17]. Group 4: Other Potential Projects - Other projects, such as the development of fMRI and PET technologies, have a lower probability of winning (15%) due to their perceived lack of groundbreaking discovery elements compared to GLP-1 [19][21]. - Additional medical achievements, including Herceptin and Gleevec, are noted for their clinical significance but are considered less competitive against GLP-1 [22][23]. - Basic research achievements in physiology are deemed unlikely to win, with a probability of less than 1% due to the vast number of contributions in this area [24].

Core Insights - BioNTech has achieved a successful mid-stage analysis for an experimental drug in collaboration with InnoCare Pharma, showing better results in breast cancer treatment compared to Roche's established drug Kadcyla [1] - The trial involved 228 patients in China who had metastatic cancer and were previously treated with chemotherapy and trastuzumab [1] - This success marks BioNTech's first significant outcome in a late-stage trial for its cancer compounds, which are crucial for the company's future growth [1] Company Developments - BioNTech's collaboration with InnoCare Pharma has resulted in its first successful outcome in a late-stage trial, indicating potential for regulatory approval [1] - The company has previously generated billions in revenue through its COVID-19 vaccine partnership with Pfizer [1] - InnoCare Pharma focuses on developing antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and has established partnerships with other companies like GlaxoSmithKline and Avenzo Therapeutics [1] Market Reaction - Following the news of the successful trial, InnoCare Pharma's stock has surged over 280% since its listing in Hong Kong in April [2] - BioNTech's stock rose nearly 7% in pre-market trading following the announcement [2]