一个低糖低油"全麦芋泥奶酥代餐包"与麦当劳巨无霸相比，听起来健康不少，但实际上，前者的热量比后者高出3份麦当劳沙拉，营养成分也更加单一。 一旦食物带着低糖低脂、低卡脱脂、无油无盐标签，就更容易被归类于"好食物"，成为更多人的健康选择。 而相反，奶茶、巧克力、酒精、油炸速食等含有高热量或高糖高脂的食品，将被列入"坏食物"行列。据调查，74%女性受访者有着一份自己的"食物红黑 榜" [1]。 这一行为，使得当代人愈加像"食物警察"，他们将食物与健康、环保等社会理念相挂钩，赋予食物政治正确的标签[1]。一旦消费了"坏食物"，这一行为会 使他们产生内疚，甚至是罪恶感，进而更加严格的约束饮食或锻炼。 根据该项调查，42%的女性受访者表示，在吃了某些"黑榜食物"或超量饮食后，会采取弥补行动来减少负罪感，比如一周内控制饮食或加量运动。 尽管这十分正常，但也是一个反常理的行为，因为根据人的生理反应，在享受食物的过程会自然产生愉悦的多巴胺，带来满足感，而非焦虑与罪恶感。罪 恶感根本上是来源于一个错误的健康饮食观念，健康饮食并没有错，但是极端追求健康饮食，实则偏离了健康的初衷。 对绝对健康饮食的偏执，会使人陷入"健康食品痴迷症" ...

该行预计1H25毛利率同比基本持平。费用端，该行预计广促费用尤其是电商投入有所节省，但受海外 业务发展带来的海运成本提升拖累，物流费用有所增长，整体销售费用率有所上行，管理费用率或同比 持平。考虑1H24政府补助减少及汇兑亏损拖累利润表现，1H25政府补助同比增加及汇兑实现收益有望 对冲SG&A费用率的下降影响，该行预计1H25整体净利率及净利润同比持平。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，颐海国际(01579)因关联方拖累超预期，下调25/26年盈利预测 9%/7%至7.9/8.9亿元，当前交易在16/14倍25/26年P/E;考虑市场估值中枢上移，维持目标价15港币不变， 对应18/16倍25/26年P/E和12%上行空间，维持跑赢行业评级。该行预计1H25公司收入同比基本持平， 第三方同比中个位数增长，净利润同比持平。 公司启动渠道精耕调整，下半年收入增长有望回暖，海外和其他B端有望打开增长天花板 中金主要观点如下： 公司当前明确渠道思路，开启精耕模式，针对直营售点开启直营、直配、直送，提升KA等售点覆盖度; 传统售点将通过增加兼职人员巡店等方式增加终端直控程度和服务力度，并细分市场，小型城市增加业 ...

虽说消费降级、预期降低是这两年的热门关键词，但若是能踩中Z世代的"消费观"，很多生意也许就能比想象中更加 赚钱。 从年初与《哪吒2》的联名手办8天售罄，到前不久一只薄荷色LABUBU拍出108万的天价……泡泡玛特凭一己之力， 创造了很多火出圈的爆款产品。 而且，这种"为爱买单"的消费情绪并不局限于潮玩、盲盒。印上了热门IP的日用品变成了收藏级周边，主打充饥的速 食产品成了精神代餐，这些现象的背后，都能关联到同一个关键词，那就是"情绪价值"。 如今，几乎每个品牌都在强调"情绪价值"的重要性，这种价值并不"抽象"，而且随着时间的推移越发"清晰"。我们不 妨结合几个案例，跟大家聊聊情绪价值到底是什么。 第一，是在消费中"掌控感"。 这一届消费者的行为看起来很"割裂"——他们的消费观念有"理性"的一面，像是吃拼好饭、用拼多多购物、用军大衣 替代羽绒服等等。也有"随性"的一面，比如愿意为盲盒、电竞、手办、谷子等商品支付更多的溢价。 其实这两种消费观念的背后，有着同样的主线，那就是拿回了对消费"掌控感"。不管是成功押注"穷鬼经济"的蜜雪冰 城，还是主打"低价优质"的库迪咖啡，都恰好踩准了年轻人对"小资"消费品集体祛魅的关 ...

京东则于7月11日下午发文宣布， 京东外卖请全国用户吃品质小龙虾， 文中说明， 认准京东App"秒送"频道， 品质小龙虾 单份仅售16.18元 ， 每晚10万份， 无套路不拼不凑。 修正一周之后，新一轮的"外卖补贴大战"在本周末重燃战火。 社交媒体上充斥着低价甚至免单的咖啡奶茶订单 。这场由阿里巴巴旗下淘宝闪购升级的战火，正迫使行业巨头美团、京东悉数卷入。 澎湃新闻记者发现， 美团和淘宝闪购分别宣布周末补贴继续，美团发文称"周六，快乐继续"，淘宝闪购则表示"188元大券包，五顿我全包！" 澎湃报道称， 7月12日，不少网友在社交平台晒出新一轮的外卖补贴"战绩"，包括低价甚至是 免单的咖啡茶饮。 据网友反馈，美团在这个周末送出了 多个线 下咖啡茶饮的通兑券，但需要自取 ， 淘宝闪购则依旧发放188元的红包 ，包括满38减18.8的午餐外卖红包，不过" 免单卡"仍需要消费者随机抽取获得 。 见闻君在微博上也见到多位网友分享的免单的咖啡茶饮券。 一位美团众包骑手告诉澎湃新闻记者，接近中午，他看到 上海的沪上阿姨等知名奶茶门店已经开始爆单。 澎湃新闻记者还了解到， 阿里试图再造一个全民参与的促销节日"超级星期六" ： ...

Overall Summary - The offline retail consumption situation for Q2 2025 shows a general decline in sales across major categories such as food, beverages, alcohol, and daily chemicals, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [2][4][6]. Group 1: Retail Performance Overview - The analysis is based on data from the "Shangma Ying Brand CT," which monitors offline retail across various city levels and includes over 30,000 brands and 14 million product barcodes [2]. - The overall sales revenue for Q2 2025 is down approximately 7% year-on-year, with a better performance in order volume compared to average spending, indicating consumer pressure on budgets and prices [4][6]. - The price index for food, beverages, alcohol, and daily chemicals shows a gradual recovery, but remains under pressure, with most categories below the baseline index of 100 [4][6]. Group 2: Key Category Insights - In the food category, frozen products like frozen sausages have shown significant market share growth, while dairy products are stabilizing after previous declines [13][22]. - The beverage category has seen strong growth in sports and plant-based drinks, with some products exceeding 30% year-on-year growth, although the overall market remains competitive [17][29]. - The snack category is experiencing a decline in market share due to health trends and new retail formats, with significant drops in sales for various subcategories [14][22]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The average spending per order has increased for certain categories like ready-to-drink juices and plant-based beverages, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards higher-quality products [34][35]. - The average purchase quantity per order has decreased across all selected categories, suggesting a trend towards larger packaging or a focus on value [40]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in the frozen food and beverage sectors, with numerous brands vying for market share [46][47].

内生增长重回正轨，第三方渠道拉动收入修复。2024 年公司实现营收65.4 亿元/+6.4%，归母净利润7.4 亿元/-13.3%，其中第三方收入同比+10.4%，成为主要增长来源。第三方业务中，火锅调味料增速 6.4%、复合调味料21.7%、方便速食11.1%，其中小龙虾调味料新品贡献明显。我们认为公司通过产品 项目制、渠道差异化选品机制，有效激发组织活力；同时推进定价优化与供应链降本，逐步抵消关联方 价格调整影响。当前主力单品依然具备份额提升空间，后续有望延续"品类突破+场景创新"的组合打 法。 机构：东方证券 研究员：谢宁铃/李雪君 加快出海步伐，打造东南亚第二增长曲线。目前颐海已在泰国、马来西亚设有两大海外产业中心，泰国 工厂2023 年落地、2024 年启动生产和渠道拓展，并在当地建立产品研发团队。当前已推出火锅底料、 复合调味、方便速食三大系列产品，涵盖粉类、炖汤包、中药汤等本地化创新方向，正在进入东南亚 KA 商超、批发、电商等多种渠道，B+C 两端均有布局。我们认为颐海的出海路径正从"产品试水"走 向"本地建厂+组织搭建+渠道突破"的深耕期，有望复制国内渠道+供应链协同效率。 我们预测公司20 ...

Group 1 - The company plans to invest up to 200 million RMB to enhance its supply chain, focusing on the construction of snack industrial parks and supply chain bases in various regions [2][3] - The strategic focus of the company is on "high-end cost performance," aiming to improve the self-production ratio of snack categories while maintaining reasonable pricing for consumers [2][3] - The company's revenue has fluctuated, increasing from 900 million RMB in 2014 to 10.2 billion RMB in 2019, then declining to over 7 billion RMB in 2022 and 2023, with a projected revenue of 10.6 billion RMB in 2024 [2] Group 2 - The company has been working to expand its offline channel presence, having previously relied heavily on e-commerce platforms [3] - A planned acquisition of the snack brand "Ai Ling Shi" for 200 million RMB was terminated due to disagreements on core terms, highlighting the company's challenges in offline expansion [3] - The company's offline store revenue was 404 million RMB in 2024, accounting for only 3.8% of total revenue, indicating a weak position in offline retail [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a recovery in revenue driven by third-party channels, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 842 million, 948 million, and 1,028 million RMB respectively [2][9]. - The company is enhancing its valuation support through high dividend payouts, with a proposed dividend of 0.6775 RMB per share for 2024, reflecting a payout ratio of 94.5% [8]. - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, with established production centers in Thailand and Malaysia, aiming to replicate domestic channel efficiencies [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 6,148 million, 6,540 million, 7,101 million, 7,715 million, and 8,297 million RMB, with growth rates of 0.0%, 6.4%, 8.6%, 8.7%, and 7.5% respectively [4]. - The company's operating profit is forecasted to be 1,195 million, 1,108 million, 1,201 million, 1,312 million, and 1,409 million RMB for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 6.9%, -7.2%, 8.4%, 9.2%, and 7.4% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to show fluctuations, with a notable decrease in 2024A, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company is set at 15.1 HKD for 2025, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 times [2][9]. - The company's current market capitalization is approximately 14,410 million HKD [5]. Performance Analysis - The company's stock has shown a relative performance of 1.92% over the past week and 3.58% over the past month, indicating a positive trend compared to the Hang Seng Index [6].

上了一天班回家打开电视一看：日本7月有2105个品种又要涨价，比去年同期多了5倍。 真是给原本就不富裕的生活又压上了一根稻草啊Orz，关键是看到这条消息的时候已经是6月30日了，来不及再去超市补点货了。 这次涨价的主要品种里调味料最多，有1445个品种，其次是咖啡等饮品共计206个品种，巧克力以及口香糖等小零食196个品种，袋装速食米饭等加工食品 117个品种。 说这次涨价的主要原因还是原料价格上涨以及光热能源费用上涨带来的生产成本增加。 截至今年11月，食品公司已公布将要涨价的食品品类超过了18,000种，比去年全年上涨品类的总数高出近五成。 日本大约是从2022年开始打破了维持40年的价格开始出现物价上涨的。受到全球环境不稳定因素、日元贬值等等多种因素的影响，先是日本的电费开始上 涨紧接着就是小麦等谷物，随之是一系列的食品、生活用品开始上涨价格。 | | 1994年と2023年の品目別価格指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1994年 | 2023年 | | | 食パン | 88.2 | 118.7 | 約1.35倍 | | 魚介類 | 77.1 | 125.3 ...

Group 1 - The company, Fangzhuanchang 69, has integrated the concept of the 24 solar terms into its menu design, offering 13 types of customized dishes to cater to diverse consumer tastes [1][4] - The chairman, Ma Junjie, emphasized the commitment to traditional handmade production, with a 90-minute sauce preparation and 8-step noodle making process, ensuring authentic Beijing flavor and quality [4] - To prepare for the upcoming summer tourism peak, the company has adjusted its operating hours, opening earlier at 7:00 AM and extending closing time to between 10:00 PM and 10:30 PM [4][6] Group 2 - The company is expanding its offerings to include "single-person dining" options and has introduced various specialty foods such as yogurt, duck rolls, and bottled sauces [4][6] - To alleviate pressure from increased customer flow during the summer, the company has enhanced staffing in the kitchen and service areas, and implemented new service models to improve table turnover efficiency [6] - Currently, Fangzhuanchang 69 operates 30 direct stores and plans to open an additional 10 to 20 locations in Beijing, focusing on densely populated and high-consumption areas [6]