该行预计1H25毛利率同比基本持平。费用端，该行预计广促费用尤其是电商投入有所节省，但受海外 业务发展带来的海运成本提升拖累，物流费用有所增长，整体销售费用率有所上行，管理费用率或同比 持平。考虑1H24政府补助减少及汇兑亏损拖累利润表现，1H25政府补助同比增加及汇兑实现收益有望 对冲SG&A费用率的下降影响，该行预计1H25整体净利率及净利润同比持平。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，颐海国际(01579)因关联方拖累超预期，下调25/26年盈利预测 9%/7%至7.9/8.9亿元，当前交易在16/14倍25/26年P/E;考虑市场估值中枢上移，维持目标价15港币不变， 对应18/16倍25/26年P/E和12%上行空间，维持跑赢行业评级。该行预计1H25公司收入同比基本持平， 第三方同比中个位数增长，净利润同比持平。 公司启动渠道精耕调整，下半年收入增长有望回暖，海外和其他B端有望打开增长天花板 中金主要观点如下： 公司当前明确渠道思路，开启精耕模式，针对直营售点开启直营、直配、直送，提升KA等售点覆盖度; 传统售点将通过增加兼职人员巡店等方式增加终端直控程度和服务力度，并细分市场，小型城市增加业 ...

内需引擎轰鸣，老百姓的钱包正为股市指明方向。 老铁们，帮主郑重又带着干货来了！今儿这消息够劲爆——商务部亲口宣布：今年社零总额要冲50万亿大关！ 这可不是拍脑袋的数字，过去四年社零年均增速稳稳站在5.5%，消费对经济的贡献率更是年均60%左右。啥概念？咱们每花100块钱，就有60块在给GDP加 油！ 但最让我眼前一亮的，是藏在数据里的"黄金密码"：服务消费占比飙到46.1%，四年足足涨了3.5个百分点。餐饮旅游、健康养老、文化娱乐这些"看不见的 消费"，正悄悄取代冰箱彩电，成为老百姓花钱的新主场！ 01 消费新地图：服务消费成主战场 这场50万亿的消费盛宴，结构早已翻天覆地。以前大家抢茅台买空调，现在更愿意为体验买单——上半年服务零售额同比猛增7.5%，增速碾压商品零售。 重庆十八梯的老巷子里，年轻人排队体验非遗技艺；上海豫园的夏日市集，国潮茶饮配汉服写真成了流量密码。消费升级的战场，正从货架转向生活场景。 县域市场更藏着超级彩蛋！上半年乡村消费增速4.5%，比城镇快0.9个百分点。拼多多上"跟着演出去旅行"的县城青年，携程直播间抢高端民宿的四线家庭 ——下沉市场的消费升级，比一线城市更凶猛。 必选消费稳如老 ...

来源：诗与星空 其实，连茅台本茅都在下跌，背后的原因并非产品本身出现问题，也不是消费降级，而是经济结构出现 了重大变化。 从2023年以来，人口结构变化导致经济结构的变化日益突出。 一、人口结构变化对消费品的影响 长期以来，消费增长被视为经济发展的持续动力，即便遭遇短期波动，也被视为螺旋式上升过程中的正 常调整。 毕竟，公司打新阶段非常火爆，差不多40万人参与认购海天H股，中签率只有5%。 据公司招股书，财务投资者也阵容庞大，包括高瓴资本、新加坡政府投资公司GIC、瑞银资管、加拿大 皇家银行、源峰基金、红杉、佛山发展等巨佬。 昔日的"酱油茅"，是如何沦落到这种地步的？ 最近在A股、港股双上市的上市公司越来越多。一方面，在港股上市给企业带来了再次融资的机会，另 一方面，来自A股的优质企业也给港股注入了新的活力。 6月19日，曾经在A股市值高达7000亿的"酱油茅"海天味业在港股上市。然而上市当天高开低走，盘中 破发，尾盘收涨仅0.55%，让人大跌眼镜。 在分析消费市场时，"喝酒吃药"这一说法常被提及。 白酒、啤酒等酒类消费往往被视为观察消费行业景气度的重要指标，而医药消费则在一定程度上扮演着 消费先行指标的角色 ...

调研纪要：涪陵榨菜二季度为销售旺季，策略性推广投入增加，终端表现温和。公司针对餐饮渠道开发 多种产品，拓宽消费场景，调整合作模式，餐饮渠道保持较快增幅。传统线下渠道仍是主要渠道，公司 将深耕成熟市场，下沉县级市场。公司认为复调市场空间大，跨界复调品类是拓品类战略的有力举措。 并购味滋美有助于快速实现渠道拓展。二季度原料成本预计对全年影响不明显。2025年销售费用投入较 2024年增长，重点投入二、三季度，配合新品类上市推广。 机构简介： 根据市场公开信息及5月26日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募聚鸣投资近期对1家上市公司进行了调研， 相关名单如下： 1）涪陵榨菜 （上海聚鸣投资管理有限公司参与公司投资者电话交流会） 聚鸣投资是中国新锐的私募基金管理人代表，公司追求专注、简单、求实为企业文化，专注于"逆向投 资"和"成长投资"的股票多头价值投资，追求稳定、可持续增长的投资收益。公司核心团队来自于国内 一流公募基金、资管行业，投研团队来自于清华大学等国内外高等学府。公司目前管理规模超过300 亿，董事长、投资总监刘晓龙毕业于清华大学机械工程专业。2007-2017年曾任广发基金权益投资总 监、基金经理，期间个人基金 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·调味发酵品Ⅱ 海天味业（603288） 经营稳扎稳打，保持战略定力 2025 年 05 月 13 日 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 24,559 | 26,901 | 29,691 | 32,823 | 36,330 | | 同比（%） | (4.10) | 9.53 | 10.37 | 10.55 | 10.69 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,627 | 6,344 | 7,018 | 7,796 | 8,645 | | 同比（%） | (9.21) | 12.75 | 10.62 | 11.09 | 10.89 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.01 | 1.14 | 1.26 | 1.40 | 1.55 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 41.56 | 36.86 | 33.32 | 29.99 | 27.05 | [关键词： Table_ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected profit growth of 22% in 2025 and 16% in 2026 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.651 billion RMB for 2024, an increase of 11.91% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 million RMB, a decrease of 22.52% year-on-year [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 669 million RMB, up 7.18% year-on-year, with a net profit of 58 million RMB, down 4.19% year-on-year [2]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in downstream demand, particularly in the catering sector, which has led to improved sales across various product lines [3]. - The gross margin is stabilizing due to an increase in customized product demand, with Q4 2024 gross margin at 35.52% and Q1 2025 at 32.61% [4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its customer base and enhancing its product offerings to drive future growth [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.651 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 11.91% [9]. - The net profit for 2024 was 233 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 22.52% compared to the previous year [9]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 284 million RMB, 330 million RMB, and 373 million RMB, respectively, indicating growth rates of 21.92%, 16.10%, and 12.92% [9]. - The company’s diluted earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 0.711 RMB, increasing to 0.932 RMB by 2027 [9].

Group 1 - The compound seasoning industry is expected to reach a revenue of 134.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2019 to 2024 [16][21][29] - The hot pot base market is projected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in the next five years, with a market size of approximately 600 billion CNY [33][35] - The Chinese compound seasoning sector is still in its growth phase, with significant opportunities for new product development, particularly in categories like sauerkraut fish and crayfish seasoning [41][43] Group 2 - In February, the food and beverage sector outperformed the market by 2.2 percentage points, with sub-sectors like liquor showing strong performance [12][20] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, with the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at the 12th percentile and the price-to-book (PB) ratio at the 23rd percentile since 2010 [12][24] - The net inflow of southbound funds in February reached 152.8 billion HKD, indicating strong interest in stocks like Qingdao Beer and COFCO Joycome [12][14] Group 3 - The liquor market is experiencing a recovery, with companies controlling inventory and maintaining prices, as seen with the price of Moutai at 2,210 CNY per bottle [17][32] - The sales of consumer goods improved in February, particularly in beer, dairy products, and frozen foods, while raw material prices showed mixed trends [18][19] - The overall retail sales in January and February 2025 are expected to grow by 4.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [28][31] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include key players in the liquor sector such as Luzhou Laojiao, Jinshiyuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as consumer goods companies like Yanjing Beer and Tianwei Foods [10][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for new product launches in the compound seasoning market, driven by changing consumer preferences and the expansion of retail channels like Sam's Club [41][43] - The macroeconomic environment is improving, which is expected to boost consumer confidence and spending, further supporting the growth of the food and beverage sector [29][31]