证 券 研 究 报 告 宝立食品（603170）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） B 端具备韧性，C 端延续改善 目标价：18.2 元 事项： ❖ 风险提示：下游需求低迷；市场竞争加剧；费用投放加大；食品安全问题等 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,651 | 2,894 | 3,253 | 3,608 | | 同比增速(%) | 11.9% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 10.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 233 | 264 | 307 | 353 | | 同比增速(%) | -22.5% | 13.4% | 16.3% | 14.7% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.58 | 0.66 | 0.77 | 0.88 | | 市盈率(倍) | 23 | 21 | 18 | 15 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance aligns with expectations, showing stable revenue and profit growth despite challenges in certain segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of 2.927 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.02%, and a net profit of 309 million yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 89% [1]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the gross margin from related parties and an increase in the B-end business proportion [2]. Business Segments - Revenue from related parties fell by 12.7% year-on-year, impacted by weak demand from Haidilao restaurants, price reductions, and changes in product structure [1]. - Third-party revenue remained stable, increasing by 6.5% year-on-year, with specific product categories like hot pot base, compound seasonings, and instant food showing growth rates of 7.5%, 4.7%, and 3.5% respectively [1]. - The B-end business saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 131.7% year-on-year, supported by the establishment of a dedicated sales team for B-end products [1][2]. Market Outlook - The company expects double-digit growth in third-party revenue for the full year, driven by continued strong performance in the B-end and overseas markets [2]. - The overseas business grew by 34% year-on-year, with expectations for third-party overseas business to increase by over 50% [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - Selling expenses increased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to higher logistics costs and an increased direct delivery ratio to key customers [2]. - Management expenses rose by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to an increase in factory staff [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been raised by 3% to 820 million yuan, while the 2026 forecast remains unchanged [3]. - The target price has been increased by 20% to 18 HKD, reflecting a valuation of 21/19 times the P/E for 2025/2026, indicating a 22% upside potential [3].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the profit forecast for Yihai International (01579) for 2025 and 2026 by 9% and 7% to 790 million and 890 million respectively, due to the impact of related parties [1] Group 1: Revenue and Growth Expectations - For 1H25, third-party revenue is expected to grow in the single digits year-on-year, with hot pot base material expected to see high single-digit growth due to price adjustments and new product launches [2] - The company anticipates a 30% year-on-year growth in overseas revenue for the first half of 2025, indicating strong performance in international markets [2] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for 1H25 is expected to remain stable year-on-year, with overall net profit margin and net profit also projected to be flat compared to the previous year [3] - Increased logistics costs due to overseas business development are expected to impact overall sales expense ratios, although government subsidies and foreign exchange gains may offset some of these costs [3] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments and Future Outlook - The company is implementing a channel refinement strategy to enhance revenue growth in the second half of the year, focusing on direct sales and improving coverage in key accounts [4] - Long-term growth potential is anticipated from the expansion of overseas markets and the development of other B-end businesses, with expectations for double-digit revenue growth in the second half of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dual listing of companies in A-shares and Hong Kong has provided opportunities for refinancing and injected vitality into the Hong Kong market, exemplified by the mixed performance of Haitian Flavor Industry's Hong Kong debut [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Population Structure Changes - The aging population in China, influenced by the baby boom of the 1960s, is expected to significantly alter consumption patterns, particularly affecting traditional consumer goods like soy sauce and alcohol [4][6]. - As the population ages, the consumption of many products, including soy sauce, is likely to decline, as older consumers tend to reduce their consumption of these items [7]. - Younger generations are increasingly opting for convenience, such as takeaway meals, which often utilize lower-cost brands, impacting traditional consumption patterns [8][10]. Group 2: Haitian Flavor Industry's Performance - In 2024, Haitian Flavor Industry reported a revenue of 26.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.53%, and a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75%, reversing a two-year decline in net profit [11]. - The company's gross margin reached 37.00%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points, while the net margin was 23.63%, up 0.65 percentage points, primarily due to lower raw material costs and optimized production [13]. - The company is shifting its focus from high growth to high-quality growth, reflecting a strategic change in response to market conditions [14]. Group 3: Structural Transformation - Haitian Flavor Industry is undergoing a structural transformation in response to changes in economic structure, with its soy sauce business peaking in 2021 and subsequently declining [16][18]. - The company is maintaining revenue growth through its oyster sauce and seasoning sauce businesses, while also attempting to penetrate new markets such as vinegar and cooking wine [18][20]. - Emerging categories, including compound sauces and cooking wine, generated 4.086 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 16.75%, with online sales growing significantly [21][22]. Group 4: Operational Risks - The company faces several operational risks, including fluctuations in raw material prices, intensified market competition, slow international expansion, and potential goodwill impairment [23][25]. - Raw materials like soybeans and sugar account for over 60% of costs, with future price increases posing a risk despite recent declines [25]. - Competition from emerging brands in the health-oriented market is increasing, with Haitian's market share in high-end soy sauce lagging behind competitors [25].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in revenue and profit margins due to strategic planning and operational stability. The revenue forecast for 2025 is projected at 29.69 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.37% [1][7] - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories and channels, aiming for a comprehensive coverage in the market. This includes strengthening its core products like soy sauce and oyster sauce while also venturing into new categories such as vinegar and cooking wine [7] - Cost advantages and supply chain optimization are anticipated to enhance profitability. The company expects to benefit from reduced raw material costs and improved supply chain management, leading to a stable increase in net profit margins [7] - The company is adopting a cautious approach to competition and is gradually expanding its overseas presence, emphasizing local adaptation and product differentiation [7] - The upcoming Hong Kong listing is expected to enhance the company's internal resources and international competitiveness, benefiting long-term growth and shareholder returns [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 24.56 billion RMB, with a decline of 4.10% year-on-year. The net profit for the same year is expected to be 5.63 billion RMB, down 9.21% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.01 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 41.56 [1] - The company forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit from 2024 to 2027, with revenue reaching 36.33 billion RMB and net profit at 8.65 billion RMB by 2027, both reflecting a growth rate of approximately 10% annually [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates steady operational performance and maintains strategic consistency, with expected revenue growth of 10% annually from 2025 to 2027 [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories and channels, aiming for stable revenue growth through product upgrades and market penetration [7] - Cost advantages and supply chain optimization are anticipated to enhance profitability, with a projected increase in net profit margin [7] - The company is adopting a cautious approach to competition and is gradually expanding its overseas presence [7] - The upcoming Hong Kong listing is expected to strengthen the company's resources and enhance its international competitiveness [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 29,691 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.37% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 7,018 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.62% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.26 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.32 [1] - The company’s net profit margin is expected to show a steady increase, with projections of 23.64% in 2025 [8]