【文/观察者网专栏作者 徐令予】 关于量子计算的争论，大多在量子比特的数字游戏与工程实现的泥潭中打转。公众叙事中默认了一个近乎迷信的前提：只要处理器足够快，算力便会如期而 至。然而，这个在计算技术发展史中早已被证伪的命题，正借着量子的外壳重新还魂。 现代计算的战场，不在于运算本身，而在于数据的"搬运"与"等待"。 过去数十年取得的算力红利，其实主要来自数据调度与存储架构的持续演进。英伟达 的黄仁勋在2026年CES展会上强调指出：当前AI算力的瓶颈已从传统的算术计算单元扩展到内存带宽、数据移动效率及系统级延迟，这源于AI模型规模的指 数级增长和物理AI对实时性的严苛要求。 本文并非试图否定量子计算的研究价值，而是希望从计算体系结构与算力本体的角度，重新审视量子计算的技术承诺。文章将首先澄清"算力并不等同于处 理器速度"这一常被忽视的基本事实，继而讨论量子计算在存储与数据调度层面所面临的结构性约束，从而为当前量子计算的争议提供一个新的视角。 一、算力不只是处理器速度，内存往往才是决定因素。 在关于计算能力的讨论中，长期存在一个误区：算力等同于中央处理器（CPU）的运算速度。这种理解或许符合人们对"计算"的朴素想 ...

Core Insights - Quantum computing has transitioned from research exploration to a critical stage of industrial cultivation, revealing significant investment opportunities within the global competition focused on the entire technology stack [1] Investment Points - The quantum computing industry has six key investment points: three hardware components (quantum chip systems, quantum computing measurement and control systems, quantum computing environmental support systems) and three software components (quantum operating systems and software, quantum computing cloud platforms, quantum computing application software), which are interdependent and essential for the industry's development [1] - Quantum chips are considered the "brain and heart" of quantum computers, representing the core hardware that determines computational power limits and is one of the most strategically valuable investment directions in the industry [1] Investment Value of Quantum Chips - The core investment value of quantum chips lies in their ability to manipulate quantum bits to achieve computational power that far exceeds classical computers, with performance determined by three key indicators: the scale of quantum bits, logical gate fidelity, and decoherence time [2] - The global landscape for quantum chip technology is characterized by a parallel development of superconducting, photonic, ion trap, and neutral atom technologies, with countries prioritizing chip autonomy as a strategic focus [2] Domestic Developments - China's quantum chip research has progressed from a following position to a competitive one, establishing an industrial foundation for mass production along the superconducting route, with successful delivery of multiple generations of superconducting quantum chips [2] - The 72-qubit "Wukong" chip has been integrated into China's third-generation autonomous superconducting quantum computer "Benyuan Wukong," completing over 760,000 quantum computing tasks across various advanced fields, demonstrating the practical value and commercial potential of domestic quantum chips [2] Industrialization Challenges - Despite achieving significant breakthroughs, China's quantum chips face challenges in scaling integration and improving yield, particularly for high-bit quantum chips required for general quantum computers, which must overcome high error correction costs and increased process complexity [3] - Investment opportunities in quantum chips require a focus on both technological innovation and industrial collaboration, emphasizing breakthroughs in chip design, nano-processing, and low-temperature packaging, while also tracking the standardization of the entire industry chain and the effectiveness of collaborative innovation systems [3] Investment Logic - The iterative development of quantum chips is expected to continuously release investment value, fostering a positive cycle of "chip breakthroughs—ecosystem upgrades—demand explosions," with each technological advancement reinforcing the investment logic of the entire quantum computing industry [3]

Core Insights - Wall Street analysts expect shares of Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum to increase over the next year, with unanimous positive outlooks from analysts covering both companies [1][2]. Rigetti Computing - The median target price for Rigetti Computing is $40 per share, indicating a 42% upside from its current price of $28, with the highest target suggesting an 82% upside [4]. - Rigetti specializes in superconducting quantum computing, utilizing microscopic superconducting circuits cooled to near absolute zero to create qubits, which allow for more efficient problem-solving compared to classical computers [5]. - The company benefits from vertical integration, controlling its supply chain to achieve cost efficiencies, and has developed the first multi-chip quantum processor, potentially giving it an edge in scaling fault-tolerant systems [6]. - Rigetti's valuation is a concern, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1,080, significantly higher than the most expensive stock in the S&P 500, indicating potential unsustainability [9]. D-Wave Quantum - The median target price for D-Wave Quantum is $40 per share, suggesting a 48% upside from its current price of $27, with the highest target indicating a 77% upside [10]. - D-Wave focuses on quantum annealers, which excel at solving optimization problems but cannot run most quantum algorithms, making them a niche technology [11]. - D-Wave's revenue increased by 100% to $3.7 million, but it reported a non-GAAP net loss of $18.1 million, with a significant increase in outstanding shares due to stockholder dilution [13]. - D-Wave's valuation is also concerning, trading at 325 times sales, which is deemed unreasonably expensive given the projected growth rate of the quantum computing market at 21% per year [14].

Core Viewpoint - The computing power sector is experiencing increased volatility, but the demand driven by AI remains robust, presenting opportunities during adjustments [1] Group 1: AI and Computing Power Demand - The demand for computing power driven by AI is expected to remain strong, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1] - The current period is likened to an industrial revolution, suggesting that the impact of AI will be profound and should be observed from a long-term perspective [1] Group 2: Quantum Technology Developments - Quantum technology is identified as a key future industry for national development, with significant potential for economic growth [1] - Recent advancements in the quantum computing industry include the collaboration between China Telecom Quantum Group and GuoDun Quantum to build and test a superconducting quantum computer named "Tianyan-287" [1] - IBM has also released two new quantum processors, highlighting ongoing innovation in the field [1] - There is a recommendation to focus on components such as dilution refrigerators and low-temperature coaxial cables within the quantum technology sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index shows a decline, with specific stocks leading gains and losses, indicating market volatility and sector-specific movements [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 17, 2025, the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index (930939) decreased by 1.26%, with Jiuli Special Materials (002318) leading the gainers and Shanghai Electric (600021) leading the decliners [1]. - The CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF (560500) experienced a turnover rate of 0.46%, with a trading volume of 2.1469 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - CITIC Securities noted increased volatility in the computing power sector, emphasizing the ongoing AI industrial revolution and the need for a long-term perspective on its impact [2]. - Quantum technology is highlighted as a key future industry, with recent advancements such as the joint development of a superconducting quantum computer by China Telecom Quantum Group and Guoshield Quantum [2]. Group 3: Fund and Index Composition - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index selects 100 companies from the CSI 500 Index based on profitability, sustainability, and cash flow, providing diverse investment options [2]. - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index accounted for 21.64% of the index, with Huagong Technology (000988) having the highest weight at 3.37% [3][5].

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down nearly 1% and the ChiNext Index down nearly 3% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.96 trillion, a decrease of 83.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Sectors such as Hainan, gas, pharmaceuticals, and Fujian saw gains, while storage chips and CPO sectors faced declines [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities believes that the demand for computing power driven by AI remains very strong, viewing the current adjustment as an opportunity [2] - The AI industry revolution is compared to the industrial revolution, suggesting a need for a long-term perspective on AI-related investments [2] - Quantum technology is highlighted as a key future industry, with recent advancements in quantum computing, including collaborations between China Telecom Quantum Group and GuoDun Quantum [2] Group 3 - Huatai Securities reports that the pet food market during Double Eleven in 2025 shows two main characteristics: a hot trading environment and a stable landscape among leading brands [3] - The industry is entering a phase of high-quality development, leading to increased competition, with a shift towards quality products over marketing gimmicks [3] - Companies with strong R&D and supply chain advantages are expected to lead in the long term [3] Group 4 - Galaxy Securities anticipates that the year-end market will continue to exhibit a volatile structure, with rapid rotation among sectors [4] - Funds are shifting towards themes like lithium batteries and electrolyte solutions, benefiting from policy support, although the sustainability of these themes remains uncertain [4] - As the year-end approaches, institutional allocations may become more balanced, preparing for next year's economic outlook [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping nearly 1% and the ChiNext Index falling close to 3% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.96 trillion, a decrease of 83.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.93%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 2.82% [1] Group 2: AI and Computing Power Demand - CITIC Securities believes that the demand for computing power driven by AI remains very strong, viewing the current market adjustment as an opportunity [1] - The firm emphasizes that the world is undergoing an AI industrial revolution, which should be observed from a long-term perspective, distinguishing it from recent trends in cloud computing and renewable energy [1] - CITIC Securities is optimistic about the demand and applications related to AI-driven computing power, highlighting the importance of quantum technology as a future economic growth point [1] Group 3: Pet Food Market Insights - Huatai Securities reports that the pet food market during the Double Eleven shopping festival in 2025 exhibited two main characteristics: a hot trading environment and a stabilizing landscape among leading brands [2] - As the industry enters a phase of high-quality development, increased investment from both industry and capital is expected to intensify short-term competition [2] - The competition among pet brands is anticipated to focus more on high-quality products rather than marketing gimmicks, with leading companies possessing strong R&D and supply chain advantages likely to emerge as winners in the long term [2] Group 4: Year-End Market Expectations - Galaxy Securities forecasts that the A-share market will continue to exhibit a consolidation pattern, with rapid rotation among sectors [3] - The technology sector, which previously saw significant gains, is currently in a consolidation phase, while funds are beginning to rotate towards themes like lithium batteries and electrolyte solutions [3] - As the year-end approaches, institutional allocations may become more balanced, preparing for next year's economic outlook, with a focus on themes such as "anti-involution" and dividends [3]

Group 1 - The European Union has committed €4.5 billion to quantum technology, significantly increasing its investment from the initial €1 billion launched in 2018, indicating a strong urgency to remain competitive in the global tech landscape [3][4][6] - Quantum technology is seen as essential for future survival, with quantum computers potentially able to outperform current supercomputers, posing risks to existing encryption and security systems [4][5][6] - The EU's investment is not just for research but is viewed as a "ticket" to avoid being left behind in the quantum era, highlighting the high stakes involved in technological competition [3][4][5] Group 2 - Chinese companies are now involved in the standard-setting process for quantum technology, which is crucial as it allows them to influence future industry rules and gain a competitive edge [6][7][8] - The collaboration between the EU and Chinese firms is driven by the recognition that global technology supply chains are interconnected, making it impractical to exclude China from the quantum technology landscape [7][8][11] - By participating in standard-setting, Chinese companies can strategically position themselves in the future quantum technology market, avoiding past pitfalls of being dependent on foreign standards [7][8][11] Group 3 - Quantum technology is not just theoretical; it has practical implications for everyday life, including secure communications and advancements in fields like drug discovery and weather forecasting [8][9][10] - The potential applications of quantum computing could revolutionize various industries, enabling faster drug development and more accurate weather predictions, although widespread commercial use may still be years away [9][10][11] - Quantum sensors could lead to breakthroughs in medical diagnostics and geological exploration, showcasing the transformative potential of quantum technology [10][11] Group 4 - The global race for quantum technology involves multiple countries, each bringing unique strengths, indicating that collaboration may be more beneficial than competition [11][12] - The complexity of quantum technology development necessitates international cooperation, as no single nation can dominate all aspects of the field [11][12] - The ultimate goal of quantum technology development is to improve human life, emphasizing the importance of collective progress rather than individual victories [12][14]