Core Viewpoint - The global and domestic gold markets are experiencing significant divergence, with international gold prices fluctuating while domestic gold jewelry prices remain high, reflecting the different investment and consumption attributes in varying market environments [1][3]. Group 1: International Gold Market - International gold prices reached a historical high of over $4,300 per ounce before dropping below $3,950 per ounce, indicating volatility driven by macroeconomic signals and geopolitical factors [1][3]. - The short-term pressure on international gold prices is attributed to reduced safe-haven demand due to easing geopolitical tensions, technical corrections, and a stronger dollar [3]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, long-term support for gold prices remains, as central banks globally increased their gold purchases by 28% in Q3 2025, totaling 220 tons [3]. Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Market - Domestic gold jewelry prices are experiencing a high premium, with brands like Lao Pu adjusting prices by 18% to 25%, and Chow Tai Fook's gold price rising from 1,198 RMB per gram to 1,259 RMB per gram [1][4]. - The pricing structure of domestic gold jewelry includes a combination of raw gold price, processing fees, brand premiums, and operational costs, which account for 30% to 50% of the total price, leading to price rigidity [4][5]. - The domestic market shows resilience in demand, with consumers shifting towards new consumption patterns, such as "small weight gold jewelry" and "old-for-new" exchanges, despite a decrease in gold consumption volume [5][6]. Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - A new tax policy effective from November 1, 2025, exempts value-added tax for standard gold transactions, aiming to differentiate tax treatment based on investment and non-investment uses, enhancing market transparency [2][6]. - The differentiated tax arrangements are expected to influence trading decisions and the flow of gold in the market, promoting a more efficient and regulated gold market [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The divergence between investment and consumption markets for gold is likely to persist, with investment gold relying on its safe-haven attributes and branded gold jewelry focusing on cultural premiums and craftsmanship [6]. - Investors are advised to avoid misconceptions equating jewelry gold with investment gold, while consumers should prioritize craftsmanship and brand value within their budget [6].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts conducted an on-site survey of Lao Pu Gold's Singapore Marina Bay Sands store, revealing that its performance exceeded expectations, with high foot traffic and a conversion rate above 95% [1][3]. Group 1: Store Performance - The Singapore store opened on June 21, with weekend wait times reaching 2-3 hours and weekday wait times of 1-1.5 hours [3]. - The store's sales conversion rate is over 95%, with 4-10 transactions per hour, and customers spend an average of 1 hour engaging with the brand and products [3]. - Approximately 95% of customers are local, with 50% being Chinese residents and 40% local Singaporeans, while 90% are first-time customers of the Lao Pu Gold brand [4]. Group 2: Pricing and Service Standards - Product pricing in the Singapore store is consistent with domestic prices, with differences of only 0.1%-0.9% for most items, and a 10% opening discount is offered [5]. - The store replicates the service standards of domestic flagship stores, including well-trained sales consultants and premium service offerings [8]. Group 3: Strategic Location and Expansion Plans - The store's location is strategically significant, situated opposite the MBS casino and near other luxury brands, with extended operating hours to accommodate high customer traffic [10]. - Lao Pu Gold plans to establish an independent membership system in Singapore and retain a 5% discount for mainland customers, with intentions to open more stores in Southeast Asia [10]. Group 4: Financial Forecasts - Morgan Stanley raised Lao Pu Gold's target price from HKD 1,149 to HKD 1,249, maintaining a buy rating, and expects a compound annual growth rate of 68% in sales and 76% in net profit from 2025 to 2027 [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been significantly increased, with expected sales growth of 155% and net profit growth of 181% in 2025 [13]. - The company is projected to achieve a same-store sales growth of 115% and a store expansion growth of 22% [13]. Group 5: Stock Performance - As of June 26, Lao Pu Gold's stock price was HKD 868.5, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 259% [15].