（本文作者李雨浓，西南财经大学国际商学院教授） 2025年10月末，全球与国内黄金市场呈现显著分化态势。国际金价一段时期内持续上涨，最高点超4300 美元/盎司，创历史新高后又大幅下跌，价格跌破3950美元/盎司；但与此同时，部分国内品牌足金首饰 价格则持续高位运行，像是10月26日，老铺黄金正式对全线产品实施价格调整，本次调价幅度大约在 18%至25%之间；而周大福首饰金价从10月28日的1198元/克持续走高，截至11月3日稳定在1259元/克的 高位。 国际金价：锚定金融属性，短期承压但长期有支撑 国际黄金市场核心驱动逻辑为金融属性，价格波动直接响应全球宏观经济信号，聚焦风险对冲与价差收 益。从当前走势看，国际金价短期承压主要源于三重因素： 避险需求阶段性降温。近期中美在吉隆坡达成贸易议题实质性框架协议，并于釜山实现元首会晤，贸易 摩擦阶段性缓解；欧洲呼吁俄乌冲突双方重启和谈，以色列南部地区紧急状态也已解除，全球地缘政治 风险边际回落，市场避险情绪有所退潮。 技术性回调叠加与获利了结。Wind数据显示，2025年现货黄金从年初约2624美元/盎司涨至10月20日创 下的历史新高约4381美元/盎司，区间 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts conducted an on-site survey of Lao Pu Gold's Singapore Marina Bay Sands store, revealing that its performance exceeded expectations, with high foot traffic and a conversion rate above 95% [1][3]. Group 1: Store Performance - The Singapore store opened on June 21, with weekend wait times reaching 2-3 hours and weekday wait times of 1-1.5 hours [3]. - The store's sales conversion rate is over 95%, with 4-10 transactions per hour, and customers spend an average of 1 hour engaging with the brand and products [3]. - Approximately 95% of customers are local, with 50% being Chinese residents and 40% local Singaporeans, while 90% are first-time customers of the Lao Pu Gold brand [4]. Group 2: Pricing and Service Standards - Product pricing in the Singapore store is consistent with domestic prices, with differences of only 0.1%-0.9% for most items, and a 10% opening discount is offered [5]. - The store replicates the service standards of domestic flagship stores, including well-trained sales consultants and premium service offerings [8]. Group 3: Strategic Location and Expansion Plans - The store's location is strategically significant, situated opposite the MBS casino and near other luxury brands, with extended operating hours to accommodate high customer traffic [10]. - Lao Pu Gold plans to establish an independent membership system in Singapore and retain a 5% discount for mainland customers, with intentions to open more stores in Southeast Asia [10]. Group 4: Financial Forecasts - Morgan Stanley raised Lao Pu Gold's target price from HKD 1,149 to HKD 1,249, maintaining a buy rating, and expects a compound annual growth rate of 68% in sales and 76% in net profit from 2025 to 2027 [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been significantly increased, with expected sales growth of 155% and net profit growth of 181% in 2025 [13]. - The company is projected to achieve a same-store sales growth of 115% and a store expansion growth of 22% [13]. Group 5: Stock Performance - As of June 26, Lao Pu Gold's stock price was HKD 868.5, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 259% [15].