[Table_Page] 公告点评|软件与服务 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 【广发计算机&海外】金蝶国际 | | --- | | （00268.HK） | | Table_Invest] [公司评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格 | 14.16 港元 | | 合理价值 | 19.75 港元 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-22 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -2% 20% 43% 65% 88% 110% 01-25 03-25 05-25 07-25 09-25 11-25 01-26 金蝶国际 恒生指数 | [分析师： Table_Author]刘雪峰 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260514030002 | | SFC CE No. BNX004 | | | 021-38003675 | | | gfliuxuefeng@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： 吴祖鹏 | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260521040003 | | wuzupeng@gf.com ...

Company Overview - Kingdee International, founded in 1993 in Shenzhen, is a leading global provider of enterprise management cloud SaaS services, leveraging technologies such as cloud computing, big data, and AI to create digital solutions covering the entire lifecycle of enterprises, serving over 7.4 million businesses and government organizations globally across more than 20 industries [1][23] - The company ranks first in the Chinese market for SaaS EA, SaaS ERM, financial cloud, EPM, and PLM, and is the only enterprise management vendor in the top 10 of the generative AI model market in China, maintaining a leading market share in the growth enterprise application software sector for 20 consecutive years [1][23] Company Development Stages - The company's development has gone through four stages: 1. Financial software period (1993-2001): Established with the launch of Kingdee financial software in 1995 and the first internet-based ERP system in 1999 [2][24] 2. ERP period (2001-2011): Introduced BPM-based strategic management solutions and launched the EAS software for large enterprises [2][24] 3. Cloud service transformation period (2011-2023): Released Kingdee K/3 Cloud in 2012, marking a shift from traditional ERP models [2][24] 4. AI era (2023-present): Launched Cangqiong GPT in 2023 and plans to fully transform into an enterprise management AI company by 2025 [2][24] Shareholding Structure - The founder, Xu Shaochun, holds a total of 19.81% of the shares, making him the largest shareholder. The management team has extensive industry experience, with most members having over five years of tenure in the company [4][26] Main Business - Kingdee's main business includes enterprise-level cloud services and digital management solutions, forming a diverse product matrix that includes a cloud-native PaaS platform and layered SaaS management clouds [5][27] - The company’s flagship products include the Kingdee Cloud Cangqiong AI platform and SaaS management clouds such as Xinghan, Xingkong, and Xingchen, catering to different enterprise needs [5][27] Financial Performance - The company has seen significant growth in cloud service revenue, which accounted for 83.74% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, with cloud service revenue reaching 2.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [6][28] - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 3.192 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.24%, with a net profit of -98 million yuan, reflecting a 55.14% year-on-year improvement [7][29] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross margin and net margin have shown recovery, with a gross margin of 65.63% and a net margin of -3.42% in the first half of 2025, indicating improvements in profitability [10][31] - The company has also seen a decrease in expense ratios, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 39.59%, 10.84%, and 24.4% respectively [11][31] Cloud Transformation Impact - The shift to a SaaS subscription model has enhanced customer retention and revenue stability, with renewal rates for large, growing, and small enterprises reaching 108%, 95%, and 93% respectively [17][18] - The company’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached 3.73 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%, contributing to 54.83% of total revenue [17][18] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The transition from traditional ERP to cloud-native EBC (Enterprise Business Capability) is essential for AI deployment, with predictions indicating that AI will add approximately $13 trillion to the global economy by 2030 [15][36] - The adoption of cloud-native technologies is rapidly increasing, with a projected 89% global adoption rate by 2024, indicating a significant shift in enterprise software architecture [14][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is a global leader in enterprise management cloud SaaS services, actively promoting AI integration into its management software [1][12] - The transition to a cloud-native EBC (Enterprise Business Capability) is essential for AI implementation, allowing for modular and flexible service offerings [1][39] - The company has seen significant growth in cloud service revenue, which accounted for 83.74% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, reflecting a shift from traditional ERP systems [23][28] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company has established a comprehensive digital solution covering the entire lifecycle of enterprises, serving over 7.4 million businesses and government organizations globally [12] - It ranks first in various SaaS categories in the Chinese market and is the only enterprise management vendor in the top 10 of generative AI models [12] Financial Analysis - The company achieved total revenue of 3.192 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.24%, with a significant reduction in net loss [28] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2020 to 2024 is projected at 16.84%, with improvements in gross and net profit margins [28][34] SaaS Layer - The demand for software upgrades driven by national innovation and the need for domestic alternatives presents substantial market opportunities [2][67] - The company has adapted its products to align with major domestic innovation ecosystems, becoming a preferred choice for state-owned enterprises and top 500 companies [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.957 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, and net profits of 72 million yuan [3][4] - The report suggests a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 6.1 for 2025, with a valuation range of 610.68 to 697.92 billion HKD for 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is a global leader in enterprise management cloud SaaS services, actively promoting AI integration into its management software [1][12] - The transition to a cloud-native EBC (Enterprise Business Capability) is essential for AI implementation, allowing for modular and flexible service capabilities [1][39] - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with cloud service revenue accounting for 83.74% of total revenue in 2025H1, reflecting a strong shift from traditional ERP systems [23][28] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 1993 and has developed a comprehensive digital solution covering the entire lifecycle of enterprises, serving over 7.4 million businesses globally [12] - It ranks first in various SaaS categories in the Chinese market and is the only enterprise management vendor in the top 10 for generative AI models [12] Financial Analysis - The company reported total revenue of 31.92 billion yuan in 2025H1, a year-on-year increase of 11.24%, with a significant reduction in net loss [28] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2020 to 2024 is projected at 16.84%, with improvements in gross and net profit margins [28][34] SaaS Market Dynamics - The demand for software upgrades driven by national innovation and the need for domestic alternatives presents substantial opportunities for the company [2][67] - The company has successfully integrated its products with major domestic innovation ecosystems, making it a preferred choice for state-owned enterprises and top 500 companies [2] AI and Market Expansion - The company is leveraging AI advancements to enhance its service offerings, signing contracts with major clients like Hisense Group and Tongwei Co [2] - The growth of the global digital economy is expected to boost the demand for cross-border ERP solutions, with the company signing 259 outbound clients in 2025H1, a 114.05% increase year-on-year [2] Profitability Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 69.57 billion, 79.28 billion, and 90.59 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 0.72 billion, 3.69 billion, and 6.34 billion yuan [3][4] - The report assigns a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 6.1, 5.35, and 4.69 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a target valuation range of 610.68 to 697.92 billion HKD for 2026 [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges small companies face in financial management and how Kingdee Cloud Star addresses these needs with a tailored solution [1][11] - Kingdee Cloud Star is positioned as a lightweight financial solution that integrates various functions to automate financial processes at a low cost [1][11] Group 1: Challenges Faced by Small Companies - Small companies often struggle with limited financial personnel, tight budgets, and diverse business needs, making it difficult to adopt traditional financial software [1] - The need for low-cost, easy-to-use, integrated, and compliant financial solutions is critical for small businesses [1] Group 2: Kingdee Cloud Star Features - Kingdee Cloud Star offers a cloud-native architecture that eliminates the need for server deployment, significantly lowering the digitalization barrier for small companies [1] - The solution automates financial processes, integrating smart finance, inventory management, tax compliance, and data analysis [1][11] Group 3: Efficiency Improvements - The software reduces repetitive tasks by 80% through features like intelligent bookkeeping, OCR invoice management, and automated bank reconciliation [2] - Integration of inventory and financial data eliminates "data silos," improving efficiency and accuracy in financial reporting [2] Group 4: Tax Management and Compliance - Kingdee Cloud Star includes a policy radar feature that updates tax incentives and automates tax reporting for various tax types, reducing the burden of tax compliance [4][5] Group 5: Mobile and Collaborative Features - The platform supports multi-device collaboration, allowing business owners to access financial data in real-time and approve transactions on the go [5] - The mobile app enhances decision-making efficiency by providing instant access to key financial metrics [5] Group 6: Industry Recognition - Kingdee Cloud Star has been recognized as the leading SaaS cloud service for small and medium enterprises in China for three consecutive years [6] - The product has received endorsements from government initiatives, ensuring compliance with tax regulations [6] Group 7: Customer Success Stories - A trading company reduced its month-end closing time from three days to two hours after implementing Kingdee Cloud Star, significantly decreasing error rates [7] - A restaurant chain managed to automate tax reporting, saving costs and achieving zero tax anomalies over a year [8] - A tech company improved financial processing efficiency by 60% during remote work by utilizing mobile approval features [9] Group 8: Free Trial Offer - Kingdee Cloud Star offers a 15-day free trial, allowing small companies to experience the software without upfront costs, with flexible payment options available afterward [10] Group 9: Conclusion - Kingdee Cloud Star is positioned as an ideal financial software choice for small companies, addressing their unique challenges with a focus on low cost, high efficiency, and comprehensive integration [11]

Core Insights - The article highlights the digital transformation challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in selecting ERP systems, emphasizing the need for low-cost, high-efficiency, and user-friendly solutions [1][2][3] Group 1: ERP Selection Challenges - SMEs often encounter a dilemma in ERP selection due to high deployment costs, lengthy implementation periods, and complex operational logic associated with traditional ERP systems [1] - The overwhelming variety of ERP products in the market leads to "choice anxiety," making it difficult for SMEs to identify the most suitable solution [1][2] Group 2: ERP Brand Rankings - The domestic ERP market has developed a multi-tier brand structure, with top brands like Yonyou and Kingdee leading the first tier, focusing on comprehensive product lines [2] - Kingdee's "Cloud Star" product stands out in the SME segment due to its integrated design and high cost-effectiveness, addressing the specific needs of SMEs [2] Group 3: Kingdee Cloud Star Features - Kingdee Cloud Star offers a balanced approach with full-chain integration and lightweight experience, covering essential business scenarios for SMEs [3][4] - The intelligent finance module significantly reduces repetitive tasks for finance personnel, streamlining processes such as tax reporting [3] - The inventory management module addresses common issues like inaccurate stock levels and order confusion, enhancing operational efficiency [3][4] Group 4: E-commerce Collaboration - The system's e-commerce collaboration capabilities allow SMEs to manage orders across multiple platforms seamlessly, reducing manual entry errors [4] - Multi-end collaboration features enable real-time data access and management, improving overall operational efficiency for retail businesses [4] Group 5: Industry Recognition and Technical Strength - Kingdee Cloud Star has received multiple industry accolades, including recognition as a recommended product for SME digital transformation [5][6] - The product's technical architecture has achieved ISO27001 information security certification, ensuring data safety and compliance [5] Group 6: Case Studies Demonstrating Value - A case study of a clothing trade company shows that implementing Kingdee Cloud Star improved inventory accuracy and reduced operational costs by 25% [7] - Another case study of a food processing factory highlights the effectiveness of batch management features in reducing material loss rates [8] Group 7: Risk-Free Trial Offer - Kingdee Cloud Star offers a 15-day free trial, allowing SMEs to experience the system without upfront costs, thereby reducing the risk of poor investment decisions [9] - User feedback indicates that the trial experience effectively demonstrates the system's convenience and efficiency, leading to quicker decision-making [9] Conclusion - The article concludes that selecting the right ERP system is a crucial first step for SMEs in their digital transformation journey, with Kingdee Cloud Star positioned as an ideal choice due to its comprehensive features and cost-effectiveness [9]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of order processing and shipping efficiency in the rapidly growing e-commerce industry, highlighting the role of order printing as a critical link between warehousing, logistics, and customers [1][2]. Group 1: Definition and Importance of Order Printing - Order printing, referred to as "printing express orders," is a digital process that significantly enhances shipping speed and accuracy compared to traditional handwritten methods [2][5]. - Order printing software connects e-commerce platforms and logistics companies, enabling automatic data synchronization and flexible template customization for efficient order processing [5]. Group 2: Lightweight SAAS vs. Integrated ERP - Lightweight SAAS (Software as a Service) is a cloud-based service model that offers specific functionalities like electronic order printing and order management, ideal for small to medium-sized businesses due to its low cost and ease of use [6][8]. - Integrated ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) systems encompass a broader range of business functions, including finance, supply chain, and customer relationship management, making them suitable for larger enterprises with complex operations [8][10]. Group 3: Comparison of Lightweight SAAS and Integrated ERP - Pricing: Lightweight SAAS typically charges a subscription fee ranging from tens to hundreds of yuan per month, while integrated ERP systems can cost thousands to tens of thousands of yuan annually [13][12]. - Functionality: Lightweight SAAS focuses on order printing and basic logistics functions, whereas integrated ERP provides comprehensive management across various business modules [12][13]. - Advantages and Disadvantages: Lightweight SAAS is easy to deploy and cost-effective but may lack the capabilities for complex business needs. Integrated ERP offers extensive functionality but comes with higher implementation costs and complexity [10][12]. Group 4: Recommendations for Businesses - New businesses or startups are advised to use free or basic versions of lightweight SAAS tools to address immediate order processing needs [18]. - Small to medium-sized businesses with growing operations may benefit from paid versions of lightweight SAAS for enhanced features [18]. - Larger enterprises should consider integrated ERP systems to support multi-store and multi-platform operations, ensuring comprehensive management of orders, inventory, and finances [18].

Core Viewpoint - Kingdee International (0268.HK) reported a continued loss in the first half of 2025, with a loss of 97.738 million yuan, accumulating over 1.4 billion yuan in losses over the past five and a half years [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kingdee International achieved revenue of 3.192 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, while the loss attributable to equity holders narrowed by 55.1% compared to the previous year [2][3]. - Cumulative losses over five and a half years reached 1.477 billion yuan [2]. Cost Structure - Research and development expenses were controlled at 777 million yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, while sales expenses rose to 1.264 billion yuan, an increase of 3.18%, marking a historical high for the period [3]. - Administrative expenses increased by 39% to 346 million yuan due to personnel restructuring and severance payments [3]. Strategic Focus - The company has accelerated its AI transformation, launching several AI-native products in the first half of 2025, including the Cloud AI Agent platform 2.0 and various intelligent assistants [3]. - AI contract amounts exceeded 150 million yuan, with expectations that AI revenue could account for 30% of total revenue by 2030 [3]. Business Segments - The cloud service business remains the largest revenue source, contributing over 80% of total revenue, with a revenue of 2.673 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, growing approximately 11.9% year-on-year [5]. - However, the growth rate of cloud service revenue has been declining, with previous growth rates of 35.5%, 21.5%, and 17.2% from 2022 to 2024 [5]. Market Performance - In the large enterprise market, Kingdee's cloud services performed well, generating approximately 845 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The mid-sized market showed weaker performance, with customer growth stagnating and a decline in new contracts signed [6]. - The small enterprise segment also faced challenges, with renewal rates below industry standards despite customer growth [6]. International Expansion - Kingdee is actively expanding its overseas business, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, but revenue from international operations remains low at 41.61 million yuan, accounting for only 1.32% of total revenue [7]. - The company has faced challenges in penetrating the high-end enterprise market dominated by international giants like SAP and Oracle [7]. Shareholder Sentiment - Recent shareholder reductions indicate a lack of confidence in the company's ability to turn around its financial performance, with stock prices significantly down from historical highs [8].