该行基于基本面改善，上调对腾讯业绩预测。第三季游戏、广告、金融科技与企业服务收入预测各上调 5%、1%及3%，料分别同比增长19%、21%及8%。全年相关收入预测各上调3%、1%及3%，料分别同比 增长20%、20%及8%。第三季及全年经营溢利预测各上调10%及6%，料分别同比增长22%及21%。 海通国际发布研报称，腾讯控股(00700)第二季收入同比升15%至1,845亿元人民币，较预期胜3%，各业 务线表现超预期。经营溢利同比升18%至692亿元人民币，胜预期3%。经调整经营溢利同比升1.3个百分 点至37.5%符预期，扣除其他利润及亏损后的经调整经营溢利率较预期高2个百分点。海通国际对腾讯 目标价由620港元上调至700港元，评级跑赢大市。 ...

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings (00700) reported a 15% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q2, reaching 184.5 billion RMB, exceeding expectations by 3% [1] - Operating profit rose by 18% year-on-year to 69.2 billion RMB, also surpassing expectations by 3% [1] - Adjusted operating profit margin increased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 37.5%, aligning with expectations, while the adjusted operating profit margin excluding other profits and losses was 2 percentage points higher than anticipated [1] Revenue Forecast Adjustments - Haidong International raised its revenue forecasts for Tencent based on improved fundamentals, with Q3 revenue predictions for gaming, advertising, and fintech & enterprise services increased by 5%, 1%, and 3% respectively, expected to grow year-on-year by 19%, 21%, and 8% [1] - Full-year revenue forecasts were also raised by 3%, 1%, and 3% for the same segments, with expected year-on-year growth of 20%, 20%, and 8% [1] Operating Profit Forecast Adjustments - Q3 and full-year operating profit forecasts were increased by 10% and 6% respectively, with expected year-on-year growth of 22% and 21% [1] - Haidong International adjusted its target price for Tencent from 620 HKD to 700 HKD, maintaining an outperform rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Haidong International reported that Tencent's Q2 revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to 184.5 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 3% [1] - Operating profit rose by 18% year-on-year to 69.2 billion yuan, also surpassing expectations by 3% [1] - Adjusted operating profit margin increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.5%, aligning with expectations, while the adjusted operating profit margin excluding other profits and losses was 2 percentage points higher than anticipated [1] Revenue Forecast Adjustments - Based on fundamental improvements, the firm raised its revenue forecasts for Tencent's Q3 in gaming, advertising, fintech, and enterprise services by 5%, 1%, and 3% respectively, expecting year-on-year growth of 19%, 21%, and 8% [1] - For the full year, revenue forecasts were increased by 3%, 1%, and 3%, with expected year-on-year growth of 20%, 20%, and 8% respectively [1] Operating Profit Forecast Adjustments - The firm raised its operating profit forecasts for Q3 and the full year by 10% and 6% respectively, anticipating year-on-year growth of 22% and 21% [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Tencent was raised from 620 HKD to 700 HKD, with a rating of "outperform" [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with AI capabilities beginning to deliver results [3] - The company is well-positioned in the FPS gaming sector, with significant growth in both domestic and international gaming revenues [4] - Advertising revenue has shown a notable increase due to AI enhancements, improving user engagement and ad click-through rates [4] - The financial technology and enterprise services segment is experiencing growth driven by cloud computing and AI capabilities [4] - Capital expenditures and operating expenses have increased significantly due to investments in AI [4] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's high-margin businesses and projects revenue and profit growth for the coming years [4] Financial Data Summary - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 749.1 billion, 823.9 billion, and 896.7 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.5%, 10.0%, and 8.8% [4][7] - **Net Profit Projections**: Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be 259.4 billion, 284.7 billion, and 321.1 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 16.5%, 9.8%, and 12.8% [4][7] - **Gross Margin**: Expected gross margins are 56.4%, 58.0%, and 59.5% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4][6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Non-IFRS EPS is projected to be 26.9, 29.6, and 33.4 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6] Key Financial Ratios - **Profitability**: Non-IFRS net profit margin is expected to be 34.6% for 2025 and remain stable thereafter [6] - **Liquidity**: The current ratio is projected to improve from 3.14 in 2025 to 3.88 in 2027 [6] - **Debt Management**: The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to remain low at around 0.3% across the forecast period [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights the importance of identifying performance turning points as a core issue for the market to emerge from the bottom phase, with M1 recovery being a key indicator [3] - In April, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 12,243 million yuan more than the same period last year, indicating a recovery in social financing [3] - The report notes that the PMI dropped significantly in April, while M2 saw a substantial year-on-year increase, suggesting a mixed economic outlook [3] Group 2 - The banking sector report anticipates that the central bank will not restart government bond purchases in the short term due to macro-prudential considerations [5] - The report indicates that the central bank's signals regarding loan pricing are aimed at protecting banks' net interest margins [5] - It is expected that deposit rate cuts will likely occur in the second quarter, which may improve net interest margins in 2025 [5] Group 3 - The securities industry report shows that listed brokerages had adjusted operating revenues of +3.1% and +27.9% year-on-year for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [6] - The report emphasizes that continuous policy support is expected to stabilize the capital market, which will likely boost market sentiment and trading volume [6] - The report suggests that brokerage firms with high revenue contributions from brokerage and margin financing businesses are likely to benefit from increased trading activity [10] Group 4 - The medical services sector report indicates that the overall revenue for 2024 was 739.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.29%, while net profit decreased by 16.37% [11] - In Q1 2025, the medical services sector showed signs of recovery with a revenue of 180.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.48% [11] - The report predicts that as macroeconomic conditions improve, the sector's performance is expected to stabilize and recover in 2025 [11] Group 5 - The semiconductor industry report states that the company achieved a revenue of 33.88 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.18%, but reported a net loss of 9.71 billion yuan [12] - The report highlights that the company is expanding its 300mm silicon wafer production capacity, which is expected to support future growth despite current market challenges [12] - The report projects a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, reflecting ongoing industry pressures [36] Group 6 - The report on Tencent Holdings indicates that the company achieved a revenue growth of 13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with significant contributions from AI capabilities [20] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Tencent's gaming and advertising segments, which exceeded market expectations [20] - Future collaborations around AI functionalities in WeChat are expected to enhance Tencent's competitive position in the market [20]