1月12日中午，市场有消息称，泡泡玛特将推出一款潮玩手机，消息一经传开便迅速登上社交平台热搜，引发潮玩爱好者与数码圈的双重关注。 当日下午，泡泡玛特迅速回应，明确表示此次并非自研手机，而是与知名手机品牌开展的IP联名合作。与此同时，《国际金融报》记者从知情人士处得到 证实，泡泡玛特本次联名合作的合作伙伴，正是国内头部手机厂商荣耀。 马云飞/摄 在大众认知中，泡泡玛特是凭借"IP + 盲盒"模式重塑潮玩产业格局的头部品牌，目前已成功孵化并运营MOLLY、SKULLPANDA、DIMOO、THE MONSTERS、Hirono等多个现象级 IP，搭建起 "消费品 + 服务体验 + 娱乐" 三大核心业务板块。其中，消费品涵盖潮流手办、毛绒、积木等；服务体验则 包括城市乐园、国际潮流玩具展等；娱乐板块则包括游戏、动画等IP衍生内容。 财报显示，2025年上半年泡泡玛特营收138.8亿元，同比增长204.4%，经调整净利润47.1亿元，同比增长362.8%。其中，LABUBU所在的THE MONSTERS 系列营收达到48.1亿元，同比增长668%，在总营收中的占比达到34.7%。MOLLY、SKULLPANDA、CR ...

Market Insights - The market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by positive factors such as stable prices and improved investment expectations, with overall liquidity remaining ample and trading activity active [3][4] - The CPI for December showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, better than the previous value of 0.7%, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, a smaller decline compared to the previous 2.2% [15][19] - The recovery in PPI indicates price stabilization, which is expected to positively impact corporate profitability and enhance market risk appetite [4][15] Industry Configuration - The military industry sector has reached a historical high in trading congestion, with the defense military trading congestion at 9.4%, the highest since 2000, and the aerospace equipment sector also hitting a record high of 2.3% [21][22] - The growth phase of the market is not yet at its end, as key indicators such as the simultaneous new highs of major growth sectors have not been met, particularly in the electric equipment, computer, and communication sectors [25][26] - The current growth style is showing signs of acceleration, but it does not fully meet the characteristics of a strong market, indicating that the growth phase may still be in its early stages [29][31] Investment Opportunities - The AI industry chain is identified as the strongest mainline investment opportunity, with a focus on computing power, supporting components, and applications [34][35] - Other sectors to watch include storage and energy chains, military industry, and machinery equipment, which are expected to benefit from rising prices and demand driven by AI and geopolitical events [35][36]

Group 1 - The major indices have shown significant increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component by 4.40%, and the ChiNext by 3.89% [1][16] - Most industry main lines are not showing obvious overheating signs and remain in a position where accumulation is possible [2][17] - The A-share ROE is expected to rise for the first time in five years after 14 consecutive quarters of decline, which is a prerequisite for stabilizing valuations [2][17] Group 2 - The spring market is characterized by a lack of major downside risks, with only short-term adjustments expected after sufficient market performance [3][18] - The market is likely to continue its upward trend, with a focus on technology as the main line of the bull market [5][20] - The current market structure shows a significant increase in trading volume, indicating sustained market activity [29] Group 3 - The upcoming policy catalysts, including the review of the 14th Five-Year Plan and potential improvements in Sino-US trade relations, are expected to stabilize market expectations [4][19] - The market is experiencing a "rotation + broad rise" state, with small-cap growth indices performing particularly well [7][22] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors such as AI applications, traditional consumption benefiting from policy support, and undervalued real estate [21][24] Group 4 - The short-term market may continue its upward trend, with significant inflows into sectors like robotics and commercial aerospace [8][24] - The commercial aerospace sector has shown strong capital inflows, although it is currently at a historically high trading density [8][25] - The overall market sentiment is improving, supported by macroeconomic factors and policy measures [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The current spring market is expected to favor technology growth and certain cyclical industries, with commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces emerging as key investment themes for the season [1][5]. Group 1: Spring Market Trends - The main phase of the spring market may witness a rebound, with industries benefiting from positive policies and trends likely to perform strongly [2]. - Historical data indicates that during the main phase of the spring market, sectors with low valuation sentiment and significant inflows of financing tend to experience a rebound [2]. - Industries such as communication, social services, and beauty care have shown strong performance during previous spring market phases due to favorable policies and industry trends [2]. Group 2: Technology and Cyclical Industries - Technology growth sectors like media, computing, and pharmaceuticals are expected to rebound in the upcoming spring market due to low valuations and sentiment [3]. - Supportive policies for technology growth and cyclical industries are likely to continue, with initiatives in commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence being implemented [3]. - The upward trend in industries related to commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence is anticipated to persist in the short term [3]. Group 3: Economic and Liquidity Outlook - The economy is expected to continue its weak recovery, with profit growth likely to rebound, as indicated by the rising PPI year-on-year growth [4]. - Macro liquidity is projected to further loosen, with potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and domestic central banks [4]. - Risk appetite in the market may continue to improve due to the implementation of positive policies and limited overseas risks [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The focus should remain on technology growth and cyclical growth sectors, as theme indices typically outperform primary industry indices during the main phase of the spring market [5]. - Commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces are highlighted as key investment themes, with the space economy projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035 [5]. - Industries such as military (commercial aerospace), new energy (nuclear fusion, energy storage), media (AI applications, gaming), and computing (AI applications, brain-computer interfaces) are recommended for low-cost allocation [5].

当前来看，今年春季行情主升阶段科技成长和部分周期行业可能持续占优。（1） 传媒、计算机、电新、医药等科技成长行业在后续春季行情中可能补涨。一是传媒、 医药、计算机、电新等估值和情绪偏低。二是今年春季行情主升阶段融资可能继续 流入科技成长和部分周期行业。（2）科技成长和部分周期行业短期政策和产业趋 势可能持续向上。一是短期对科技成长和周期行业的支持政策可能持续：首先，上 海、广东等地鼓励商业航天的政策落地实施，八部门出台《"人工智能+制造"专 项行动实施意见》；其次，短期反内卷政策持续进行。二是短期科技成长和部分周 期行业产业趋势可能持续上行：首先，短期商业航天、人工智能等相关的科技产业 趋势不断上行；其次，有色金属、化工等周期行业产业趋势短期也可能继续上行。 春季行情主升时行业如何轮动？ 定期报告 投资要点 春季行情短期可能进入主升阶段。（1）短期经济和盈利可能继续弱修复。一是短 期经济可能继续弱修复。二是短期盈利增速可能继续回升：首先，PPI 同比增速回 升显示工业企业盈利增速仍处于回升周期中；其次，后续周期和科技盈利增速可能 继续回升。（2）短期流动性可能进一步宽松。一是短期宏观流动性可能进一步宽 松：首 ...

国外 1. 惠誉：预计美联储上半年降息两次，今年失业率或稳于4.6% 惠誉将2025年美国GDP增长预估值及2026年增长预测值上调。此次调整是在纳入了因去年底政府停摆而 延迟发布的经济数据后作出的。惠誉目前预计2025年GDP增长2.1%，高于其2025年12月《全球经济展 望》（GEO）中预测的1.8%。同时，将2026年的增长预测从上次报告的1.9%上调至2.0%。鉴于10月数 据不完整，近期CPI通胀趋势难以解读。据估计，通胀率在2025年12月升至3.0%（11月为2.7%），并受 关税传导延迟的影响，2026年将进一步上升，年底预计达到3.2%。由于就业增长放缓的影响被劳动力 增速下降所抵消，预计2026年平均失业率为4.6%，与近期水平接近。我们预计美联储将在2026年上半 年降息两次，将联邦基金利率（上限）下调至3.25%。 2. 高盛：投资者对石油的看空情绪达到近十年来最高水平 高盛集团的一项调查发现，地缘政治因素令机构投资者对石油的看法达到近10年来最悲观的水平，全球 市场正面临石油供过于求的困境。根据高盛的调查，在涵盖各类资产的1100多名客户中，超过59%的人 看空或略微看空原油市场。 ...

曾以"散户大战华尔街"闻名的游戏驿站，再度因CEO天价薪酬包引发轰动。 当地时间周三，游戏驿站（GameStop）公布一项价值约350亿美元的首席执行官薪酬方案。 同时，这份新薪酬方案也设定了极高的业绩门槛：CEO科恩需将公司市值从95亿提升至1000亿美元。 这立马令人联想到特斯拉为马斯克量身打造的史上最高薪酬方案。 及此，游戏驿站此番动作也被网友戏称为"马斯克式"天价薪酬包。 周三美股收盘，游戏驿站涨3.05%报21.29美元，最新总市值95.38亿美元。 350亿美元天价薪酬包！ 据薪酬方案 ，董事长兼首席执行官瑞安·科恩有望获得350亿美元的巨额收入，但有一个很大的前提条件。 只有当游戏驿站的市值达到1000亿美元（约为当前市值的十倍），并且累计业绩 EBITDA（即息税折旧摊销前利润）必须达到100亿美元。 据悉，科恩没有固定薪酬——没有工资，没有现金奖金，也没有随着时间推移而自动获得的股票。 相反，他的薪酬完全是'风险性'的。 这意味着只有当公司实现重要的市场和运营目标时，他才能获得报酬。 据文件显示，奖励包含可购买1.715亿股公司股票的期权，行权价为每股20.66美元。 奖励分为九期，只有当公 ...

据爱沙尼亚统计局数据，2025年11月份,爱沙尼亚零售贸易企业营业额达9.1亿欧元，同比基本持 平。其中，汽车燃料零售企业的营业额同比增长13%，销售二手商品和非商店零售（摊位、市场和直 销）商店的营业额同比增长10.3%，销售电脑及其配件、电信设备、体育器材、游戏、玩具等的专卖店 的营业额同比增长8%，销售纺织品、服装和鞋类的商店营业额同比增长0.5%；通过邮购或互联网零售 营业额同比下降9.7%，销售制成品为主的百货商店的营业额同比下降8.3%，销售家居用品、家电、五 金和建筑材料的商店营业额同比下降6.4%。 2025年1-11月，爱沙尼亚零售贸易企业营业额累计达98亿欧元，同比增长2%。 （原标题：爱沙尼亚2025年11月零售贸易额同比持平） ...

联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 行 业 比 较 相关研究 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 06 日 涨价链和非银开门红可期 —— A 股行业中观景气跟踪月报（2025 年 12 月） 本期投资提示： 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 - 一、工业部门分行业月度跟踪：煤炭开采、黑色金属采选、医药制造等景气底部改善，关注医药制造、食 品饮料、纺服轻工、橡胶塑料、化学原料和制品等板块困境反转和供给出清机会。 ⚫ 1）量（营收、工业增加值）、价（PPI ...

1月6日，实丰文化盘中下跌2.09%，截至10:41，报19.19元/股，成交5466.13万元，换手率2.22%，总市 值32.24亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出670.19万元，特大单买入117.80万元，占比2.16%，卖出104.08万元，占 比1.90%；大单买入649.46万元，占比11.88%，卖出1333.37万元，占比24.39%。 截至9月30日，实丰文化股东户数2.55万，较上期减少21.97%；人均流通股4954股，较上期增加 28.16%。2025年1月-9月，实丰文化实现营业收入3.28亿元，同比增长5.81%；归母净利润-5878.81万 元，同比减少1399.85%。 分红方面，实丰文化A股上市后累计派现1800.00万元。近三年，累计派现360.00万元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，实丰文化十大流通股东中，华商优势行业混合A（000390）退出 十大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 实丰文化今年以来股价跌1.74%，近5个交易日跌3.62%，近20日跌9.99%，近60日涨1.11%。 资料显示，实丰文化发展股份有限公司位于广东省汕头市澄海区文冠路澄华工 ...