证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 24 年 月 日 名创优品（09896.HK） 内地同店全年逐季提速，海外运营效率提升 事件：11 月 21 日，公司披露截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日止三个月业绩。3Q25， 公司同店 GMV 实现中个位数增长；实现营收 58.0 亿元/同比+28.2%，经 调整净利润为 7.67 亿元/同比+11.7%；经调经营利润 10.2 亿元/同比 +14.8%，对应经调 OPM 17.6%/同比-2.1pct。 MINISO 国内：3Q25 门店净增 102 家，同店实现高个位数增长。①收 入：3Q25 名创优品品牌内地收入 29.1 亿元/同比+19.3%，内地收入逐季 加速。②开店及同店：3Q25 国内 MINISO 门店净增 102 家至 4407 家， 期内同店 GMV 实现高个位数增长；③展望：25 年 10 月中国内地同店增 长达到低双位数水平，我们预计全年内地有望实现中个位数同店增长。 MINISO 海外：同店持续改善，海外直营业务利润率同比提升。①收入： 3Q25，名创优品品牌海外业务实现收入 23.1 亿元/同比+27. ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月18日 六福集团（00590.HK） 优于大市 低估值港资珠宝龙头，产品创新+渠道变革注入新动能 一线港资珠宝品牌，经营提效同店向好。公司 1991 年成立于香港，以六福 珠宝为主品牌，并拥有金至尊、六福精品廊等多品牌矩阵。2025 财年实现 收入 133.41 亿港元，其中内地占比 39.5%，中国香港、中国澳门及海外 占比 60.5%；线下自营+电商的零售收入占比 82.7%；一口价黄金产品占 比预计超过 15%且持续提升。虽然在面对金价过快上涨和消费环境变化 下，公司 2025 财年业绩短暂承压，但通过产品创新、渠道提效、品牌 力强化等措施，最新的 2025 年的二/三季度，公司整体同店销售已经分 别实现 5%和 10%的增长。 需求切换与工艺创新共振，饰品消费逻辑已形成"为时尚+保值双重价值买 单"。设计工艺的突破让黄金的时尚属性显著提升，悦己消费需求场景 得以打开，具备强产品设计的一口价黄金首饰实现"时尚+保值"的完 美融合。这也带动了企业毛利率实现修复增长，也将从基本面角度驱动 股价抬升。此外，文化出海伴随着商品机遇，黄金首饰蕴含渊源、故事 和中华民族的传承，海外 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare AI computing chip supplier, leveraging self-developed AI large language models and industry knowledge to provide cutting-edge chip application solutions and supply chain management services [1][9] - The company achieved significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 6.676 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 54.5%, and a net profit of 132 million RMB, up 17.2% year-on-year [1][20] - The report highlights the explosive demand for AI-driven chips, with global computing power expected to reach 14,130 EFlops by 2029, and the AI chip market projected to grow to 400 billion USD by 2027 [2][9] Summary by Sections 1. AI Computing Demand and Revenue Growth - The company has established a comprehensive chip-end-cloud industry chain layout, capturing explosive demand for AI computing, resulting in a revenue increase of 54.5% in the first half of 2025 [1][20] - The company operates through two main platforms: KETON Technology, which serves as a core supplier in the AI computing supply chain, and Hard Egg Technology, focusing on AIoT data and technology services [1][17] 2. AI Chip Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the scarcity of high-end computing resources driven by AI large models, with demand for computing power increasing exponentially [2][9] - The global AI chip market is expected to grow significantly, with infrastructure spending projected to reach 3-4 trillion USD by 2030 [2][9] 3. Physical AI and Technological Advancements - The emergence of physical AI is anticipated to transform industries valued at 50 trillion USD, with NVIDIA's platforms aiding in overcoming technological barriers [3][9] - The company is positioned to leverage NVIDIA's Jetson series products to provide AI solutions in robotics and other applications [3][9] 4. Self-Developed SOM and Growth Potential - The company is developing self-researched System on Module (SOM) products, which are expected to create a second growth curve by expanding into larger edge applications [4][9] - The SOM market is projected to exceed 3.22 billion USD by 2025 and 7.76 billion USD by 2035, indicating significant growth potential [4][9] 5. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.36 billion RMB, 20.03 billion RMB, and 27.08 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 250 million RMB, 379 million RMB, and 502 million RMB [9][11] - The report highlights the company's valuation advantages, with projected P/E ratios of 16.7, 11.2, and 8.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The new tax policy for gold aims to clarify the usage of gold raw materials and implement differentiated tax management, guiding market participants to reduce speculative behavior and promote healthy competition within the industry [2] - The policy changes are expected to benefit leading companies with strong brand and product capabilities, such as Cai Bai Co. and China Gold, while potentially impacting the procurement and liquidity of physical gold for certain enterprises [2][3] - The tax policy adjustments are likely to enhance the competitive edge of leading enterprises, ensuring stable profit margins through differentiated products and service levels [3][16] Summary by Sections Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses of gold, with specific tax implications for each category [4][10] - For investment purposes, the core change is that member units can only issue ordinary invoices to buyers, which cannot be used to deduct input tax, potentially increasing tax costs for businesses [4][7] - For non-investment purposes, the tax treatment shifts from "immediate tax refund" to "tax exemption," which reduces the financial burden on companies but increases the actual VAT payable due to a lower deduction rate [10][11] Impact on Companies - Listed gold jewelry companies, primarily engaged in jewelry retail, may face increased tax costs under the new regulations, but their core competitiveness will still rely on product and service quality [14][16] - The new tax regulations may lead to a shift in consumer purchasing behavior, encouraging purchases from member units of the Shanghai Gold Exchange [7][15] Recommendations - It is recommended to continue monitoring companies that engage in both investment gold and jewelry sales, such as Cai Bai Co., Lao Pu Gold, and traditional leaders like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Holdings, as they are expected to maintain stable profit margins due to their strong market positions and product differentiation [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown accelerating revenue growth, with Q3 revenue reaching 2.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.52%, benefiting from improved single-store efficiency and continued expansion of franchise stores [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was a loss of 14 million yuan, but excluding goodwill impairment, the profit was 157 million yuan, reflecting an 81.54% year-on-year increase [1] - The company is focusing on product design and innovation to meet consumer demand for value retention and fashion attributes, while also targeting the younger consumer demographic for growth [2] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 gross margin was 21.93%, down 2.27 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in product and channel structure [2] - The sales expense ratio improved to 8.23%, down 4.02 percentage points year-on-year, due to enhanced brand power and cost control [2] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 602 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.3%, indicating a positive cash flow situation [2] Earnings Forecast and Financial Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 8.058 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.63% [3] - Net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 487.35 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 151.67% [3] - The company’s PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 24.6, 21.2, and 18.7 respectively [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The company reported a 14% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to the parent company for the third quarter, despite a 16.71% decline in revenue [1] - The decline in revenue has narrowed compared to the previous quarter, with a 21.76 percentage point improvement [1] - E-commerce channels are experiencing rapid growth, with a 17.68% increase in e-commerce revenue year-on-year [1] - The company is optimizing store quality and has closed inefficient stores while increasing self-operated stores [1] - The overall revenue for the first three quarters has decreased by 37.35%, but profit has seen a positive growth of 3.13% due to improved gross margins and cost control [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 2.175 billion yuan, with a net profit of 288 million yuan [1] - The gross margin for the third quarter was 28.46%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 580 million yuan, a decrease of 55.86% year-on-year [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 1.124 billion yuan, 1.280 billion yuan, and 1.395 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.6, 12.0, and 11.0 [3][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company demonstrated steady profitability with a revenue of 2.438 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 66 million yuan, up 28.13% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is planning to deepen its international presence, having opened its first overseas store in Singapore, and is preparing to issue H shares for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to support its international strategy [2][3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.349 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.10%, and a net profit of 209 million yuan, up 59.29% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved to 30.49% in Q3 2025, an increase of 1.34 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s operating expenses as a percentage of revenue showed a slight increase, with total expenses rising to 27.35% [2] Store Expansion and Business Model - As of the end of 2024, the company operates 2,503 stores under the "Silk Domain" brand, with over 2 million members, and has diversified its store formats [1] - The company is focusing on a multi-channel operational strategy, emphasizing a global differentiated supply chain and local parenting services [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 10.25 billion yuan, 11.23 billion yuan, and 12.75 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 310 million yuan, 410 million yuan, and 510 million yuan [3][4] - The report anticipates an increase in earnings per share (EPS) to 0.24 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.40 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is initiating a comprehensive retail strategy with new brand expansions across various categories, enhancing its brand matrix [4] - Despite challenges in the retail environment, the company's strategy is expected to sustain traffic and sales through diversified channels [6] - Collaborations with leading international brands like Nike and Adidas are anticipated to drive future growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - For FY25/26, the company reported a revenue of 12.299 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.79%, with a gross profit of 5.037 billion RMB, down 6.06% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for FY25/26 was 789 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 9.69% [6] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, achieving 102.2% in FY25/26, and a cumulative payout ratio of 107.3% since FY2019/20 [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 28,933.20 million RMB in 2024, 27,012.90 million RMB in 2025, and 26,443.89 million RMB in 2026, with a forecasted growth rate of -6.64% for 2025 [5] - Net profit forecasts are 2,213 million RMB for 2024, 1,286 million RMB for 2025, and 1,417.56 million RMB for 2026, with a significant decline of 41.89% expected in 2025 [5] - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 0.36 RMB in 2024, decreasing to 0.21 RMB in 2025, and recovering to 0.23 RMB in 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (downgraded) [4] Core Views - The company is experiencing operational pressure during the industry's adjustment phase, with a significant decline in revenue and profit in Q2 2025. Revenue reached 1.098 billion yuan, down 39.36% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was -29 million yuan, a decrease of 215.37% year-on-year [1][2] - The company has diversified its business model with three main store formats: "Huazhi Wine Store," "Huazhi Famous Wine Warehouse," and "Huazhi Preferred," which cater to various consumer needs [1] - The wine business has shown resilience with a 10.96% year-on-year growth, attributed to the deepening partnership with Penfolds and becoming the exclusive agent for the Kola Mountain series [1] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from its main businesses was as follows: Baijiu 3.632 billion yuan (down 34.98%), wine 247 million yuan (up 10.96%), imported spirits 27 million yuan (down 36.83%), and other businesses 44 million yuan (down 52.94%) [1] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 7.87%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -2.66%, down 4.06 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting revenues of 8.158 billion yuan, 8.778 billion yuan, and 9.205 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [2] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 8.636 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 416.80 million shares [5] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.09 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 221.56 [8] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is 41.83%, indicating a moderate level of debt [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][23] Core Views - The company is showing signs of a turning point in its main business operations, with mid-year performance beginning to validate this trend. The ongoing implementation of the large store model and proprietary IP strategy is expected to drive continuous improvement in both domestic and international performance [2][3][23] - The domestic large store strategy is optimizing store structure and improving operational efficiency, leading to gradual improvements in same-store sales. The IP strategy is enhancing global competitiveness and significantly driving overseas business and the TOP TOY brand development [2][3][23] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2, the company achieved revenue of 4.966 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, exceeding the previous guidance of 18%-21%. Operating profit reached 836 million, up 11.3% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 692 million, reflecting a 10.6% increase year-on-year [3][23] - The management has raised the full-year guidance, expecting Q3 overall revenue growth of 25-28%, with domestic MINISO brand revenue growth in the mid to high double digits and overseas revenue accelerating to 30%-35% [3][23] Domestic Business - The domestic revenue for the MINISO brand in Q2 was 2.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. Same-store sales have turned positive, with a net increase of 30 stores in Q2, reversing the previous trend of store closures [9][10] - Same-store growth is driven by improved customer spending and enhanced store conversion rates, despite a slight decline in foot traffic [9][10] Overseas Business - Overseas revenue for the MINISO brand reached 1.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%. The company plans to add over 500 new stores globally this year, with significant growth in the North American market [13][14] - The North American strategy focuses on large stores and cluster openings, enhancing brand presence and operational efficiency [14][16] TOP TOY Brand - TOP TOY achieved revenue of 400 million in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 87%. The brand is focusing on enhancing its own brand and IP sales contributions, with plans for global expansion [17][19] Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its large store strategy both domestically and internationally, with significant investments in MINISO LAND and flagship stores, which have shown higher sales efficiency compared to smaller stores [18][19] - The proprietary IP strategy has evolved into a dual-driven model, focusing on both artist IP and top international licensed IP, with plans to launch self-owned IP products in overseas markets [19][23]