联系人 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 商贸零售 | 专业连锁Ⅱ 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 24 日 证券分析师 符超然 SAC：S1350525050004 fuchaoran@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 12 | 月 | 23 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 2.98 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 4.13/2.60 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 18,479.64 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 18,479.64 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 45.18 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 滔搏(06110.HK) 投资评级： 买入（维持） ——三季度零售下滑高单位数,静待 Nike 大中华区调整效果 投资要点： | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 23 年 月 日 滔搏（06110.HK） Q3 销售仍有波动，关注品牌伙伴去库和上新节奏 事件：滔搏发布季度经营公告，FY2026Q3（（2025 年 9-11 月）公司全渠道销售 额（零售流水及批发发货金额，含税）同比下降高单位数，直营门店毛销售面积 环比/同比-1.3%/-13.4%。 面对客流波动+渠道关店，FY2026Q3 线下销售或仍有压力。FY2026Q3 公司销 售下降高单位数，其中我们预计零售流水表现优于批发发货表现，而在零售业务 中我们预计线下销售或仍有下降，原因在于：1）线下渠道关店，FY2026H1 公司 门店数量净关 332 家至 4688 家，截至 2025 年 11 月末线下直营门店毛销售面积 同比下降 13.4%，环比 8 月末下降 1.3%；2）消费环境波动以及市场竞争，我们 判断线下门店或仍然存在客流以及折扣压力。对于零售业务未来趋势，我们认为 在经过 FY2025 以及 FY2026H1 的门店调整后，我们预计 FY2026H2 净关店数量 较 FY2026H1 有望减少，同时在经过低效门店的出清后，门 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company reported a 42.5% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the fiscal year 2026, driven by product and store efficiency optimization, as well as an increase in gross margin [1][3] - Same-store sales continued to show double-digit growth from October 1 to November 21, indicating a sustained positive trend [1] - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.55 per share, with a payout ratio of 52% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year 2026, the company achieved revenue of HKD 6.843 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, and a net profit of HKD 619 million, reflecting a growth of 42.5% [1] - The gross margin improved by 2 percentage points to 34.7%, reaching a historical high, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increased proportion of high-margin priced jewelry [2] - The retail business revenue grew by 12.8%, accounting for 76.8% of total revenue, while wholesale business revenue surged by 190.6%, making up 16.3% of total revenue [2] Business Segmentation - The revenue from weight-based products increased by 11%, while fixed-price products saw a growth of 67.9%, with the latter's share rising by 8.8 percentage points to 35.7%, and the proportion of priced gold is expected to reach around 25% [2] - The revenue from the mainland China market grew by 54.2%, accounting for 43.6% of total revenue, while revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets increased by 9.9%, making up 56.4% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from product innovation, channel optimization, and accelerated overseas development, with projected net profits of HKD 1.501 billion, HKD 1.787 billion, and HKD 2.028 billion for fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [3][4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 9.5, 8.0, and 7.1 for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, indicating a favorable valuation [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated a significant acceleration in revenue growth in Q3, achieving a revenue of 5.797 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, surpassing previous guidance [2]. - The adjusted operating profit for Q3 was 1.022 billion, up 14.8% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit reached 767 million, reflecting an 11.7% increase [2]. - The company expects Q4 revenue growth to be between 25% and 30%, with double-digit same-store sales growth anticipated in both China and the U.S. [2]. - The domestic business is benefiting from a large store strategy and refined operations, with same-store sales showing a positive trend [4]. - The overseas business is expanding rapidly, with a net addition of 117 stores in Q3, bringing the total overseas store count to 3,424 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue for the brand was 5.222 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, with domestic revenue at 2.909 billion, up 19.3% [2]. - The company forecasts a full-year revenue growth of 25%, with adjusted operating profit expected to be between 3.65 billion and 3.85 billion [4]. - The financial projections for 2023 to 2027 indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with 2023 revenue projected at 13.839 billion, growing to 28.578 billion by 2027 [5]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is estimated at 2.253 billion, with a projected increase to 3.257 billion by 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The overall performance for the first half of the fiscal year is stable, with accelerated growth since October. For the first half of fiscal year 2026 (April 2025 - September 2025), the company achieved revenue of HKD 38.986 billion, a slight decline of 1.1% year-on-year, impacted by store strategy contraction and high gold prices affecting product weight. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, a slight increase of 0.13%, maintaining overall stability. Since October, the company has seen further acceleration in growth, with retail value increasing by 33.9% year-on-year from October 1 to November 18, and same-store sales in mainland China growing by 38.8% [1][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The retail revenue in mainland China increased by 8.1%, accounting for 38.4% of total revenue. Wholesale revenue in mainland China decreased by 10.2%, making up 44.2% of total revenue due to overall store contraction and reduced purchasing under high gold prices. Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets grew by 6.5%, accounting for 17.4% of total revenue. The revenue from priced jewelry increased by 9.3%, representing 29.6% of total revenue, with priced gold performing particularly well [2] Cost Management and Margins - The overall gross margin remained above 30%, at 30.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a reduced increase in gold prices compared to the same period last year. The increase in the proportion of priced products positively impacted the gross margin. The selling and administrative expense ratio decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 14%, benefiting from cost control optimization. Inventory turnover days shortened by 33 days to 424 days [3] Future Outlook and Adjustments - The company plans to further enhance the layout of high-margin priced products and optimize store structure to boost same-store sales. Given the 32.4% increase in London gold prices since the beginning of fiscal year 2026, which is 7.4 percentage points lower than the previous fiscal year's increase of 39.8%, the expected fair value loss on gold loans has been adjusted higher. Consequently, the net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026-2028 have been revised down to HKD 7.141 billion, HKD 8.178 billion, and HKD 9.061 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.1, 18.4, and 16.6 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO, reflecting confidence in its growth potential and operational efficiency [4][6]. Core Insights - MINISO has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 28.2% year-on-year increase in revenue to 5.8 billion RMB in Q3 2025, alongside an adjusted net profit growth of 11.7% to 767 million RMB [1]. - The company is expanding its store network, adding 102 new stores in mainland China, bringing the total to 4,407, while overseas operations also saw a net increase of 117 stores, totaling 3,424 [2]. - The operational efficiency of overseas direct sales has improved, with a profit margin increase, particularly in strategic markets like North America and Europe [2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Operations - In Q3 2025, MINISO's domestic revenue reached 2.91 billion RMB, marking a 19.3% year-on-year increase, with same-store sales showing high single-digit growth [1]. - The company anticipates low double-digit same-store growth in mainland China by October 2025, projecting a full-year same-store growth in the mid-single digits [1]. Overseas Operations - The overseas business generated 2.31 billion RMB in revenue, a 27.7% increase year-on-year, accounting for 44.3% of total revenue [2]. - Same-store sales in overseas markets have shown improvement, particularly in strategic regions, contributing to the overall growth of the company [2]. Financial Performance - The adjusted operating profit for Q3 2025 was 1.02 billion RMB, reflecting a 14.8% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 17.6%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The gross profit for Q3 2025 was 2.59 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 44.7%, slightly down from the previous year [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 21.3 billion RMB, 25.4 billion RMB, and 29.6 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 2.94 billion RMB, 3.48 billion RMB, and 4.08 billion RMB [4][5]. - The report indicates a continuous optimization of various business segments, products, and supply chains, supporting the company's growth trajectory [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price range of HKD 31.00 to HKD 36.50 per share [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading Hong Kong jewelry brand that has shown operational efficiency and positive same-store sales growth despite facing challenges from rising gold prices and changing consumer environments. The company achieved a revenue of HKD 133.41 billion in FY2025, with 39.5% from mainland China and 60.5% from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets [1][3]. - The jewelry consumption logic has shifted towards a dual value proposition of "fashion + value preservation," driven by innovative design and craftsmanship, which has enhanced the appeal of gold jewelry. This trend is expected to support margin recovery and drive stock price appreciation [1][3]. - The company is actively developing differentiated products that meet market demands, with a focus on optimizing sales capabilities in domestic stores and expanding overseas [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 133.41 billion for FY2025, a decrease of 12.95% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 1.1 billion, down 37.77% year-on-year. Adjusting for gold hedging losses and one-time gains from acquisitions, the decline in profit was narrowed to 6.3% [13][31]. - The forecast for net profit for FY2026 to FY2028 is projected at HKD 15.01 billion, HKD 17.87 billion, and HKD 20.28 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 36.48%, 19.08%, and 13.44% respectively [3][4]. Market Trends - The jewelry market is experiencing a shift towards gold products, which are expected to account for 80% of sales by 2024. The demand for gold jewelry is being driven by its perceived value preservation attributes amid rising gold prices [48][53]. - The company plans to open 50 new overseas stores in the coming years, capitalizing on the growing demand from overseas Chinese consumers and the global trend of seeking value-preserving investments [66][68]. Product and Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on product innovation and channel optimization, with a significant portion of revenue coming from self-operated and e-commerce retail, which accounted for 82.7% of total revenue in FY2025 [20][23]. - The introduction of high-margin fixed-price gold products has contributed to margin recovery, with the gross margin for gold and platinum products increasing to 26.35% in FY2025 [31][60]. Competitive Landscape - The jewelry industry is characterized by intense competition, with major players like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang dominating the market. The company holds a market share of 0.7%, ranking tenth among competitors [73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare AI computing chip supplier, leveraging self-developed AI large language models and industry knowledge to provide cutting-edge chip application solutions and supply chain management services [1][9] - The company achieved significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 6.676 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 54.5%, and a net profit of 132 million RMB, up 17.2% year-on-year [1][20] - The report highlights the explosive demand for AI-driven chips, with global computing power expected to reach 14,130 EFlops by 2029, and the AI chip market projected to grow to 400 billion USD by 2027 [2][9] Summary by Sections 1. AI Computing Demand and Revenue Growth - The company has established a comprehensive chip-end-cloud industry chain layout, capturing explosive demand for AI computing, resulting in a revenue increase of 54.5% in the first half of 2025 [1][20] - The company operates through two main platforms: KETON Technology, which serves as a core supplier in the AI computing supply chain, and Hard Egg Technology, focusing on AIoT data and technology services [1][17] 2. AI Chip Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the scarcity of high-end computing resources driven by AI large models, with demand for computing power increasing exponentially [2][9] - The global AI chip market is expected to grow significantly, with infrastructure spending projected to reach 3-4 trillion USD by 2030 [2][9] 3. Physical AI and Technological Advancements - The emergence of physical AI is anticipated to transform industries valued at 50 trillion USD, with NVIDIA's platforms aiding in overcoming technological barriers [3][9] - The company is positioned to leverage NVIDIA's Jetson series products to provide AI solutions in robotics and other applications [3][9] 4. Self-Developed SOM and Growth Potential - The company is developing self-researched System on Module (SOM) products, which are expected to create a second growth curve by expanding into larger edge applications [4][9] - The SOM market is projected to exceed 3.22 billion USD by 2025 and 7.76 billion USD by 2035, indicating significant growth potential [4][9] 5. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.36 billion RMB, 20.03 billion RMB, and 27.08 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 250 million RMB, 379 million RMB, and 502 million RMB [9][11] - The report highlights the company's valuation advantages, with projected P/E ratios of 16.7, 11.2, and 8.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The new tax policy for gold aims to clarify the usage of gold raw materials and implement differentiated tax management, guiding market participants to reduce speculative behavior and promote healthy competition within the industry [2] - The policy changes are expected to benefit leading companies with strong brand and product capabilities, such as Cai Bai Co. and China Gold, while potentially impacting the procurement and liquidity of physical gold for certain enterprises [2][3] - The tax policy adjustments are likely to enhance the competitive edge of leading enterprises, ensuring stable profit margins through differentiated products and service levels [3][16] Summary by Sections Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses of gold, with specific tax implications for each category [4][10] - For investment purposes, the core change is that member units can only issue ordinary invoices to buyers, which cannot be used to deduct input tax, potentially increasing tax costs for businesses [4][7] - For non-investment purposes, the tax treatment shifts from "immediate tax refund" to "tax exemption," which reduces the financial burden on companies but increases the actual VAT payable due to a lower deduction rate [10][11] Impact on Companies - Listed gold jewelry companies, primarily engaged in jewelry retail, may face increased tax costs under the new regulations, but their core competitiveness will still rely on product and service quality [14][16] - The new tax regulations may lead to a shift in consumer purchasing behavior, encouraging purchases from member units of the Shanghai Gold Exchange [7][15] Recommendations - It is recommended to continue monitoring companies that engage in both investment gold and jewelry sales, such as Cai Bai Co., Lao Pu Gold, and traditional leaders like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Holdings, as they are expected to maintain stable profit margins due to their strong market positions and product differentiation [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown accelerating revenue growth, with Q3 revenue reaching 2.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.52%, benefiting from improved single-store efficiency and continued expansion of franchise stores [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was a loss of 14 million yuan, but excluding goodwill impairment, the profit was 157 million yuan, reflecting an 81.54% year-on-year increase [1] - The company is focusing on product design and innovation to meet consumer demand for value retention and fashion attributes, while also targeting the younger consumer demographic for growth [2] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 gross margin was 21.93%, down 2.27 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in product and channel structure [2] - The sales expense ratio improved to 8.23%, down 4.02 percentage points year-on-year, due to enhanced brand power and cost control [2] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 602 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.3%, indicating a positive cash flow situation [2] Earnings Forecast and Financial Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 8.058 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.63% [3] - Net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 487.35 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 151.67% [3] - The company’s PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 24.6, 21.2, and 18.7 respectively [2][3]