Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The New Zealand heavy rainfall and floods have caused short - term shipment delays, affecting the supply of logs to China. The log market shows a complex situation with price fluctuations, inventory changes, and demand differences between regions. In the short - term, the 2603 contract is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation, while in the medium - term, the market will enter a traditional off - season around the Spring Festival in 2026, and the focus will be on factors such as the resumption rate, real - estate policies, cost changes, and demand recovery [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Industry Data - Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 740 yuan/cubic meter, remaining stable compared to the previous period. The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is 770 yuan/cubic meter, showing an increase. The radiata pine log prices in Jiangsu and Chongqing markets have risen, and the main log contract 2603 first declined and then rebounded. - Futures: As of January 27th, the main log contract 2603 closed at 776 yuan/cubic meter, showing a rebound. In early January 2026, the ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers from New Zealand to China was 25 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 1 US dollar/JAS cubic meter compared to late December 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85% [2]. Log Industry Data - Supply - The New Zealand weather has led to short - term shipment delays. The expected arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China from January 26th to February 1st, 2026, is 7 ships, a decrease of 1 ship compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 13%, and the arrival volume is about 219,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 27,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 11%. The actual arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 ports from January 19th to January 25th, 2026, was 8 ships, a decrease of 3 ships compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 27%, and the arrival volume was about 246,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 123,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 33%. In December 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. Overall, China's total coniferous log imports decreased year - on - year in 2025 [2]. Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of January 27th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters compared to last week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.12 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory was 110,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. The total inventory in Jiangsu has been declining continuously, mainly due to the tight supply of some specifications of port spot. The price difference between Shandong and Jiangsu has expanded, leading to some ships diverting to Jiangsu and a significant decrease in the arrival at Rizhao Market [3]. Log Industry Data - Demand - From January 19th to January 25th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,800 cubic meters, an increase of 0.32% compared to last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 36,100 cubic meters, an increase of 11.42% compared to last week; the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 19,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 14.91% compared to last week. Downstream demand is suppressed by seasonal factors. The demand shows a north - south differentiation. The price of radiata pine logs in the Rizhao area has increased in the short - term due to concerns about reduced supply from New Zealand and tight inventories of some specifications, while the demand side is weakly stable with little short - term change [3]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook - China's imported radiata pine shows a significant resource - concentration characteristic, with an increasing proportion from New Zealand. The anti - involution policy has an indirect boosting effect in the off - season. The May Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement is beneficial to wood product exports. The resumption of importing US logs has been announced, but the short - term arrival volume will be limited. The New Zealand heavy rainfall and floods may affect local logging and shipping [4]. Log Industry Data - Strategies and Suggestions - In the past, from July to early September, the futures market rebounded significantly, but then entered a low - level oscillation due to weak real - estate demand. In the second half of the year, the near - and far - month contracts showed significant differentiation. In the short - term, the 2603 contract is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to factors such as foreign quotes and pre - Spring Festival demand contraction. In the medium - term, around the Spring Festival in 2026, the market will enter an off - season, and attention should be paid to factors such as the resumption rate, real - estate policies, cost changes, and demand recovery [5]. Log Supply Source - Radiata pine mainly comes from New Zealand, and fir and spruce mainly come from Europe [13].

Group 1: Market Overview - In the week of December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, China is expected to receive 15 shipments of New Zealand softwood logs, an increase of 6 shipments from the previous week, representing a week-on-week increase of 67% [1] - The total volume of logs arriving at ports is 510,500 cubic meters, which is an increase of 204,500 cubic meters from the previous week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 66.8% [1] - The average daily outflow of softwood logs from 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 58,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 7.75% from the previous week [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of softwood logs in China was 2.54 million cubic meters, a week-on-week decrease of 2.31% [1] - Radiata pine inventory stood at 2.16 million cubic meters, down 1.37% week-on-week [1] - North American wood inventory remained stable at 70,000 cubic meters, while spruce/fir inventory decreased by 10,000 cubic meters to 150,000 cubic meters [1] Group 3: Futures Market Insights - According to Nanhua Futures, the weekly volatility in the futures market remains low, fluctuating between 765 and 785 yuan per cubic meter, with the main contract holding a position of 11,000 lots, indicating a capital outflow [2] - Newhu Futures noted that while inventory has decreased and is below last year's levels, the pressure from incoming shipments is expected to rise in the coming weeks, with terminal demand showing no significant improvement [3] - The overall market is characterized by a lack of major contradictions in fundamentals, with domestic and international price discrepancies limiting significant downward movement, leading to expectations of low-level fluctuations in the main contract [3]

Group 1: Iron Ore and Coal Market - Global iron ore shipments totaled 34.31 million tons from May 27 to June 2, an increase of 2.42 million tons month-on-month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil accounted for 28.69 million tons, with Australia alone contributing 19.21 million tons, a decrease of 0.93 million tons [1] - Mongolia's ER company held an online auction for coking coal on June 3, with a starting price of 750 CNY/ton for Mongolian 3 premium coal. The auction for 12,800 tons ended with no bids, marking the 18th consecutive failed auction since April 22 [1] Group 2: Soybean and Palm Oil Market - As of late May, commercial soybean inventories in major oil mills in China rose to nearly 7 million tons due to concentrated imports. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, followed by 9.5 million tons in July and 8.5 million tons in August, indicating sufficient domestic supply [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports in May reached 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month [1] - India's edible oil imports in May surged by 37% to 1.18 million tons, the highest level in five months, with palm oil imports skyrocketing by 87% to 600,000 tons, the highest in six months [2] Group 3: Oil Prices and Wood Inventory - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted upward by 65 CNY and 60 CNY per ton, respectively, effective from June 3. The average increase for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel is 0.05 CNY per liter [2] - As of May 30, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 341,000 cubic meters, a reduction of 0.58% week-on-week, reaching a three-and-a-half-month low [2] Group 4: Aluminum and Lead Production - In May 2025, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 2.66% month-on-month and 4.06% year-on-year. The built production capacity was approximately 11.08 million tons, with actual operating capacity declining by 0.46% and an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 CNY/ton as of May 30 [2] - A medium-sized lead smelting plant in Yunnan is expected to undergo routine maintenance in mid-June for 30-40 days, which will reduce lead production by nearly 2,000 tons in June, while silver production is expected to remain normal [2]