Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG faces geopolitical risks and frequent supply disruptions [2] - Propylene's fundamentals are supportive, and its trend remains strong [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market** - For LPG (PG), on March 27, 2026, 2604 PG closed at 6,835 with a 0.18% daily increase, and the night - session closed at 6,701 with a - 1.96% decrease. The trading volume was 2,630, a decrease of 6,472 from the previous day, and the open interest was 2,085, a decrease of 579 [3] - For propylene (PL), 2604 PL closed at 9,086 on March 27, 2026, with a 2.16% daily increase, and the night - session closed at 9,045 with a - 0.45% decrease. The trading volume was 210, a decrease of 65 from the previous day, and the open interest was 109, a decrease of 195 [3] - **Spot Market** - For LPG, on March 27, 2026, the price of Shandong civil LPG was 6,100, a decrease of 150 from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of - 659, a decrease of 368 [3] - For propylene, on March 27, 2026, the price of Shandong propylene was 8,315, a decrease of 350 from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of - 685, a decrease of 499 [3] - **Industrial Chain Start - up Rates** - As of March 27, 2026, the PDH start - up rate was 63.6%, a decrease of 2.03 from the previous week; the alkylation start - up rate was 38.6%, unchanged from the previous week; and the MTBE start - up rate was 69.89%, an increase of 0.38 from the previous week [3] - **LPG Shipment Volumes** - On March 29, 2026, the LPG shipment volume from the United States to the world was 188,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons from the previous day; the shipment volume to Asia was 188,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons from the previous day; the shipment volume to China was 46,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous day [3] - On March 29, 2026, the LPG shipment volume from the Middle East to the world was 46,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous day; the shipment volume to Asia was 46,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous day; the shipment volume to China was 0 [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity: 1; propylene trend intensity: 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7] 3.3 Market Information - On March 27, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper - futures price of propane was 641 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 636 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the May CP paper - futures price of propane was 650 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day [8] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting PDH device maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined [9] - There are also multiple domestic LPG plant device maintenance plans, such as Shangneng Petrochemical starting the whole - plant maintenance on February 5, 2026, and ending on March 31, 2026 [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene, including price changes in the futures and spot markets, industry chain operating rates, and LPG shipping volumes, as well as market news such as CP paper prices and domestic device maintenance plans [1][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For LPG (PG) futures, on February 26, 2026, the closing prices of contracts 2603, 2604, and 2605 were 4,253 (down 0.44%), 4,566 (up 1.24%), and 4,492 (up 1.08%) respectively; the night - session closing prices were 4,249 (down 0.09%), 4,543 (down 0.50%), and 4,468 (down 0.53%) respectively. Trading volumes and open interests also had corresponding changes [1] - For propylene (PL) futures, the closing prices of contracts 2603, 2604, and 2605 on February 26, 2026 were 6,192 (down 0.31%), 6,312 (up 0.08%), and 6,312 (down 0.16%) respectively; the night - session closing prices were 6,185 (down 0.11%), 6,255 (down 0.90%), and 6,250 (down 0.98%) respectively. Trading volumes and open interests changed as well [1] 3.1.2 Spot Market - For LPG, prices in different regions such as Shandong, East China, and South China had different changes compared to the previous day, and the basis of the main contract also changed. For example, the Shandong civilian LPG price was 4,480, down 20 from the previous day; the East China imported LPG price was 5,001, unchanged from the previous day [1] - For propylene, prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract increased by 10 in each region [1] 3.1.3 Industry Chain Operating Rates - As of February 27, 2026, the PDH operating rate was 63.23%, down 1.61 from the previous week; the alkylation operating rate was 37.72%, up 0.87 from the previous week; the MTBE operating rate was 67.22%, unchanged from the previous week [1] 3.1.4 LPG Shipping Volumes - From the United States on February 26, 2026, the global shipping volume was 17.9 tons, up 4.0 from the previous day; the Asian shipping volume was 12.4 tons, down 1.4 from the previous day. From the Middle East, the global and Asian shipping volumes were 0.6 tons, down 7.6 from the previous day [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG and propylene is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5] 3.3 Market News - On February 26, 2026, the March CP paper price for propane was 555 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the butane price was 548 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The April CP paper price for propane was 553 US dollars/ton, up 26 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [6] - There are multiple domestic PDH device and LPG factory device maintenance plans, including information such as enterprise names, device types, production capacities, maintenance start - and end - times, and loss volumes [6][7]

Report Title - "【中信期货航运】美西、欧洲计划运力高位回落,至美国发运量维持低位 -- 数据报告20250916" [1] Report Analysts - An Jierui,从业资格号:F03100682,投资咨询号: Z0021085 [1] - Wu Xilu,从业资格号:F03117373,投资咨询号:Z0022651 [1] Core Views - High - frequency shipping capacity shows mixed trends, with the planned capacity of the US West route rebounding month - on - month and the North European capacity rising slightly. The shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from China to the US has dropped again at a low level, and the arrival volume at US ports has declined in the past two weeks. Domestic port throughput fluctuates but remains higher than the same period last year. US booking data also shows a downward trend [4][5] Summary by Content High - frequency Shipping Capacity - In the 39th week (September 21 - 28 planned capacity), the capacity of the US West route dropped to 340,000 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.4%. The capacity of the US East route was 217,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 31%. The capacity of the China - Southeast Asia route was operating at a high level, with a year - on - year positive growth of 37% but a narrowing increase, and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5% with an expanding decline. The capacity of the China - North Europe route in the 39th week decreased month - on - month, dropping to 325,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%. The capacity of the Mediterranean route increased by 46.7% year - on - year and decreased by 8% month - on - month [4] Shipping Volume of Container Ships Carrying Goods to the US - As of September 15, the shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from China to the US reached 444,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8%, and the number was 54, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8%. The shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from Vietnam to the US rebounded last week, reaching 130,000 TEU, a week - on - week increase of 44% [4] Arrival Volume at US Ports - In the 37th week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods at US ports was 531,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 189,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 24.6%, and the arrival volume from Vietnam was 68,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9%. This week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods at US ports was 486,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8.4%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 170,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 10.5%, and the arrival volume from Vietnam was 61,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 9.9% [5] Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of September 14, the container throughput of domestic ports increased by 0.1% week - on - week and 13.5% year - on - year, reaching 665.2 million TEU [5] Vizion Booking Data - From August 18 - 25, the total US bookings were 336,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 5.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. From August 18 - 25, the US bookings from China were 122,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. In the first three weeks of August, the average weekly total US bookings were 355,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 7.1% compared to July. The average weekly US bookings from China were 124,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 9.6% compared to July [5]

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Group 1: Iron Ore and Coal Market - Global iron ore shipments totaled 34.31 million tons from May 27 to June 2, an increase of 2.42 million tons month-on-month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil accounted for 28.69 million tons, with Australia alone contributing 19.21 million tons, a decrease of 0.93 million tons [1] - Mongolia's ER company held an online auction for coking coal on June 3, with a starting price of 750 CNY/ton for Mongolian 3 premium coal. The auction for 12,800 tons ended with no bids, marking the 18th consecutive failed auction since April 22 [1] Group 2: Soybean and Palm Oil Market - As of late May, commercial soybean inventories in major oil mills in China rose to nearly 7 million tons due to concentrated imports. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, followed by 9.5 million tons in July and 8.5 million tons in August, indicating sufficient domestic supply [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports in May reached 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month [1] - India's edible oil imports in May surged by 37% to 1.18 million tons, the highest level in five months, with palm oil imports skyrocketing by 87% to 600,000 tons, the highest in six months [2] Group 3: Oil Prices and Wood Inventory - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted upward by 65 CNY and 60 CNY per ton, respectively, effective from June 3. The average increase for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel is 0.05 CNY per liter [2] - As of May 30, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 341,000 cubic meters, a reduction of 0.58% week-on-week, reaching a three-and-a-half-month low [2] Group 4: Aluminum and Lead Production - In May 2025, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 2.66% month-on-month and 4.06% year-on-year. The built production capacity was approximately 11.08 million tons, with actual operating capacity declining by 0.46% and an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 CNY/ton as of May 30 [2] - A medium-sized lead smelting plant in Yunnan is expected to undergo routine maintenance in mid-June for 30-40 days, which will reduce lead production by nearly 2,000 tons in June, while silver production is expected to remain normal [2]