| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/09/11 | 3150 | 3210 | 3250 | 3190 | 3240 | 3250 | | 2025/09/12 | 3190 | 3210 | 3290 | 3230 | 3240 | 3230 | | 2025/09/15 | 3190 | 3260 | 3290 | 3230 | 3330 | 3280 | | 2025/09/16 | 3220 | 3280 | 3310 | 3260 | 3360 | 3290 | | 2025/09/17 | 3180 | 3240 | 3270 | 3220 | 3360 | 3290 | | 变化 | -40 | -40 | -40 | -40 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津 ...

价 格 和 利 润 | | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/09/10 | 3160 | 3210 | 3260 | 3210 | 3300 | 3260 | | 2025/09/11 | 3150 | 3210 | 3250 | 3190 | 3240 | 3250 | | 2025/09/12 | 3190 | 3210 | 3290 | 3230 | 3240 | 3230 | | 2025/09/15 | 3190 | 3260 | 3290 | 3230 | 3330 | 3280 | | 2025/09/16 | 3220 | 3280 | 3310 | 3260 | 3360 | 3290 | | 变化 | 30 | 20 | 20 | 30 | 30 | 10 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of finished steel products rebounded briefly and then declined. The spot market was relatively strong, and the basis widened significantly. The consumption of listed steel products decreased month - on - month, while the total output increased slightly. - In terms of varieties, both the production and sales of rebar decreased, with consumption declining faster than production, and the total inventory continued to rise. Both the production and sales of hot - rolled coils increased, and the total inventory increased slightly month - on - month. In the short term, the structure of stronger hot - rolled coils and weaker rebar is maintained. For rebar, the valuation is in the repair stage, and the 01 contract should pay attention to the support at 3200. Operate with caution [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Supply and Demand Fundamentals** - **Price and Output**: Last week, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated slightly. As of August 14, the total output of five major steel products increased by 2420 tons. The apparent demand was 831,020 tons, a decrease of 14,720 tons month - on - month. As of August 15, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of rebar in East China was 3134.5 yuan, with a profit of about 138 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 225.5 yuan. For electric furnaces in East China, the flat - rate electricity cost was about 3368 yuan, and the valley - rate electricity cost was about 3240 yuan [6]. - **Scrap Steel**: As of August 15, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 36.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 558,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6100 tons. The supply of scrap steel increased, but the inventory of 255 steel enterprises decreased by 2.6% [7]. - **Macro Data**: In 2025 from January to July, the cumulative output of pig iron was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% year - on - year, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year - on - year. In July 2025, the PMI was 49.3%. The newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises decreased year - on - year. From January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, infrastructure investment decreased by 5.07%, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17% [17][19][23]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and the completed floor area decreased by 16.5% year - on - year [30]. **Main Varieties' Basis and Spread** - **Spread Strategy**: This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to be strong [41]. **Supply Analysis** - **Long - Process Supply**: As of August 15, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%, and the daily output of hot metal was 2407,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.14% [44]. - **Short - Process Supply**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric furnace plants was 36.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. As of August 15, the iron - scrap price difference was - 37.7 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.3 yuan [47]. **Demand - Related Indicators** - **Rebar Production**: This week, the original sample output of rebar was 220,450 tons, a decrease of 730 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 190,250 tons, a decrease of 290 tons, and the short - process output was 30,200 tons, a decrease of 440 tons [60]. - **Building Materials Transactions**: The trading volume of building materials in different regions showed different trends [63]. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating rate of national cement mills was 41.91%, a month - on - month increase of 6.2 percentage points, turning from a decline to an increase [71]. - **Real Estate Sales**: The 30 - city real - estate sales data showed certain trends [73]. **Inventory Situation** - **Rebar Inventory**: The original sample rebar factory inventory was 172,260 tons, an increase of 4060 tons, the social inventory was 414,930 tons, an increase of 26,450 tons, and the total inventory was 587,190 tons, an increase of 30,510 tons [76]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 315,590 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons. The apparent demand was 314,750 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8540 tons. The factory inventory increased by 2100 tons, the social inventory decreased by 1210 tons, and the total inventory increased by 840 tons [79]. **Export Situation** - As of August 15, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars, an increase of 5 US dollars, and the export profit was - 4.5 US dollars, an increase of 6.4 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 3.0699 million tons, an increase of 425,500 tons [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the supply - demand structure continued to weaken last week, market sentiment cooled significantly, and it is expected that the black market still has room for correction, but differentiation among varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and pay attention to the correction space [7]. - For iron ore, the supply decreased slightly week - on - week last week, demand increased marginally, and the supply - demand structure improved week - on - week. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, and the ore price may maintain the current oscillating and slightly strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading [7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Rebar prices corrected from high levels last week, hot - rolled coils oscillated, and the trends of coils and rebars diverged. The rebar 10 contract fell 25 to 3188, and the spot price in East China dropped 20 week - on - week to 3320 yuan/ton [13]. 1.2 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points week - on - week and 4.30 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week and 11.89 tons year - on - year [15]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.39%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points week - on - week and 21.74 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 76.39%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points week - on - week and 23.97 percentage points year - on - year [24]. - The supply of five major steel products last week was 871.63 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons week - on - week, a growth rate of 0.3%. Among them, rebar production decreased by 0.7 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 tons [28]. 1.3 Demand - From August 6th to 12th, the national cement delivery volume was 2.608 million tons, a decrease of 1.27% week - on - week and 19.88% year - on - year. The direct supply volume of infrastructure cement was 1.59 million tons, a decrease of 1.24% week - on - week and 3.64% year - on - year. The speculative demand for building materials also declined [31]. - For hot - rolled coils, from August 1st to 10th, the national passenger car retail sales were 452,000 units, a decrease of 4% year - on - year and an increase of 6% compared with the same period last month. Manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [34]. 1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The average profit of independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was - 47 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. 1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products last week was 14.1597 million tons, an increase of 406,100 tons week - on - week, a growth rate of 2.95%. Rebar social inventory increased significantly, and the factory inventory also increased by 40,000 tons [42]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - plant inventory increased by 21,000 tons, and the social inventory increased by 8,400 tons [45]. 1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 basis was 112, a narrowing of 5 compared with last week. The hot - rolled coil basis was - 9, a narrowing of 21 compared with last week [48]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 81, a deeper inversion of 8 compared with last week. As the 10 - contract approaches its end, the pressure on the near - month contract increases [51]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The current spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the futures market was 251, an expansion of 36 compared with last week. The spot spread was 130, an expansion of 20 compared with last week [54]. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Iron ore prices oscillated after a correction last week, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. The 09 contract rose 7 to 790, with both trading volume and open interest declining. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 2 to 771 yuan/ton [60]. 2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.467 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in August was 30.543 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with last month and 1.2 million tons compared with last year [63]. - The weekly average shipment volume from Australia was 17.214 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons compared with last month and 610,000 tons compared with last year. The weekly average shipment volume from Brazil was 8.099 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons compared with last month and 210,000 tons compared with last year [66]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 510,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in August was 25.97 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons compared with last month and 320,000 tons compared with last year [69]. 2.3 Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week. Iron ore demand rebounded week - on - week, and it is expected to increase further next week [72]. - The average daily port trading volume last week was 954,000 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons week - on - week. Steel mills replenished their stocks as needed [76]. 2.4 Inventory - As of August 15th, the total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week - on - week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 12.71 million tons lower than the same period last year [79]. - On August 14th, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills was 27.7594 million tons, an increase of 196,600 tons compared with the previous period [82]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 9.93 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost from Brazil to China was 24.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.68 US dollars week - on - week [85]. 2.6 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 20.5, unchanged compared with last week, at a relatively low - neutral level. The 01 - contract discount was 19.5, basically unchanged compared with last week, at a relatively low level [89].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View No core view is provided in the report. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report shows the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from August 11 to August 15, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, Lecong for hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils. It also presents the price changes during this period, such as a 0 change in most rebar prices and - 20 for Tianjin hot - rolled coil, - 30 for Tianjin cold - rolled coil [1]. Output and Inventory No content related to output and inventory is provided in the report. Basis and Spread No content related to basis and spread is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan's rebar, as well as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong's hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils from August 5th to August 11th, 2025, along with their price changes [1]. Production and Inventory - Not provided Basis and Spread - Not provided

Group 1: Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from July 28, 2025, to August 1, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, and other cities' threaded steel and hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils in Tianjin, Shanghai, and other places. For example, the price of Beijing threaded steel changed from 3290 on July 28 to 3240 on August 1, a decrease of 10; the price of Tianjin hot-rolled coil changed from 3370 on July 28 to 3410 on August 1, an increase of 40 [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - No relevant content provided Group 3: Basis and Spread - No relevant content provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.92 million tons to 13.3766 million tons this week, marking the third consecutive week of slight decline. Among them, the social inventory increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory reached the lowest level since the Spring Festival. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97%, the steel mill inventory decreased by 4.3%, the weekly output decreased by 3.51%, and it was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in apparent demand among the five major steel products, with a decline of 6.92%. The output of wire rods increased, the total inventory decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 6.3% month - on - month. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates increased by 2.96% and 2.1% respectively. - Currently, the industrial logic accounts for a relatively low proportion, and the "anti - involution" expectation is still fermenting. Although the molten iron output has rebounded, the supply of rebar has significantly declined, and the output of plate products has also decreased simultaneously. The supply continues to shrink, and coupled with the inventory accumulation being lower than expected, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong short - term operation trend. The previous low point may become history, but the upward height still needs to be observed, and policy conditions should be closely monitored. The outlook for the future is oscillating and slightly strengthening. [2][59] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: This week, the main contract of rebar RB2510 rose significantly, closing at 3,133 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, with a position of 2.1269 million lots, a decrease of 103,100 lots. The main contract of hot - rolled coils HC2510 also rose significantly, closing at 3,292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.61031 million lots, an increase of 132,000 lots. - Spot market: This week, the spot price center of rebar moved up. As of July 17, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,170 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price center of hot - rolled coils moved down. As of July 17, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,200 yuan/ton compared with last week. [5][6] 1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar contract RB2510 compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 84 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil contract HC2510 compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 28 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was 16 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 159 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 129 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton. [10][11][12] Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel this week was 83.46%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.83 percentage points. The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.14 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 27,900 tons. - The total weekly output of the five major steel products counted by Mysteel this week was 8.6819 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,300 tons. The effect of the "anti - involution" policy signal is gradually emerging, and the reduction of rebar and hot - rolled coils is obvious. [19] 2.2 Demand - Recently, the US government has targeted 14 countries and imposed a "tariff bomb." US President Trump posted multiple letters on social media, stating that starting from August 1, import products from 14 countries will be subject to tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. The tariffs on China remain the same as before. Against the background of the current rush to export, the demand for hot - rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar. Coupled with the arrival of the seasonal off - season demand for building materials, this pattern is expected to continue for some time. There are signs of easing in the Sino - US trade friction and expectations of future Fed rate cuts. The path for the realization of the off - season logic in the future is expected to be less smooth, and the demand will maintain a certain level of resilience. [2][30] 2.3 Inventory - The social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country counted by Mysteel this week was 9.2211 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 81,000 tons. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 4.1555 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100,200 tons. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 13.3766 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,200 tons. The overall inventory is at a low level compared with the same period, and the steel mills have significantly reduced their inventory, transferring it downstream and continuing a certain de - stocking trend. [2][34] 2.4 Profit - This week, the price of rebar rose. The average cost of electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,287 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The increase in rebar prices in many regions was greater than that of scrap steel. The average profit of steel mills was - 92 yuan/ton, and the average profit during off - peak electricity hours was 11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Some electric arc furnace steel mills have turned from losses to profits and have actively chosen to resume production or increase production time to improve production saturation. [2][47] 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials generally stabilized and rebounded. Among them, the price of Tangshan billets increased by 4 yuan/ton to 2,993 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 20 yuan/ton to 768 yuan/ton. [56] Summary and Investment Suggestions - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.92 million tons to 13.3766 million tons this week, marking the third consecutive week of slight decline. Among them, the social inventory increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory reached the lowest level since the Spring Festival. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97%, the steel mill inventory decreased by 4.3%, the weekly output decreased by 3.51%, and it was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in apparent demand among the five major steel products, with a decline of 6.92%. The output of wire rods increased, the total inventory decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 6.3% month - on - month. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates increased by 2.96% and 2.1% respectively. - Currently, the industrial logic accounts for a relatively low proportion, and the "anti - involution" expectation is still fermenting. Although the molten iron output has rebounded, the supply of rebar has significantly declined, and the output of plate products has also decreased simultaneously. The supply continues to shrink, and coupled with the inventory accumulation being lower than expected, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong short - term operation trend. The previous low point may become history, but the upward height still needs to be observed, and policy conditions should be closely monitored. [2][59]

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - Since the Politburo meeting in July last year, the policy level has continuously emphasized "anti-involution." The recent meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission has elevated anti-involution to the national strategic level, raising market expectations for a new round of supply-side reforms [8]. - From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the off-season demand characteristics of finished products are not obvious recently. Varieties such as rebar and hot-rolled coils have not effectively accumulated inventory during the off-season. Coupled with the current policy window period, steel prices are supported to some extent. The rebound pressure of rebar should be noted at the valley electricity cost [8]. Summary by Directory Conclusion and Balance Sheet - Last week, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated and rebounded. The price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3,190 yuan (+50), and that in Tangshan was 3,150 yuan (+40). For hot-rolled coils, the price in Shanghai was 3,300 yuan (+50), and that in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan (+50) [6]. - As of July 10, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 124,400 tons. The factory inventory of the five major products increased by 1,770 tons month-on-month, and the social inventory decreased by 2,120 tons. The apparent demand was 873,070 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 121,900 tons [7]. - As of July 11, on the long-process spot side, the cash含税 cost of rebar in East China's long process was 2,932.5 yuan, and the point-to-point profit was about 257.5 yuan. The cash含税 profit of hot-rolled coils in the long process was about 267.5 yuan. On the electric furnace side, the flat-electric furnace cost in East China (Fubao caliber) was about 3,304 yuan, and the valley-electric cost was about 3,173 yuan. The flat-electric profit of rebar in East China was about -204 yuan, and the valley-electric profit was about -73 yuan [7]. - As of July 10, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,080 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan. Data showed that the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 29.6%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points; the daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 505,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,700 tons; among them, the daily consumption of 132 long-process steel mills was 255,000 tons/day, a month-on-month decrease of 6,100 tons; the daily consumption of short-process was 14,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 320 tons. In terms of supply, the average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 461,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,300 tons, a decrease of 3.2%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 4.621 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 92,700 tons, a decrease of 2%. Overall, the iron-scrap price difference rebounded from a low level this period. After the cost of the long process increased, the price of scrap steel also began to rise. It is expected that the cost of the electric furnace will further increase [7]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Steel Production and Inventory Data**: The report provides detailed production and inventory data of five major steel products from May 2, 2025, to July 11, 2025, including rebar, hot-rolled coils, medium and heavy plates, wire rods, and cold-rolled coils [10]. - **Crude Steel Production**: In 2024, the crude steel production was 1.00509 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared with 2023, a decrease of 1.7%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative crude steel production was 432 million tons, a decrease of 1.7% compared with the same period in 2024 [16]. - **Monetary Data**: In May 2025, the newly added social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 227.1 billion yuan compared with the same period last year and an increase of 113 billion yuan compared with April, higher than the Wind consensus expectation of 2.05 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of the social financing stock in May was 8.7%, the same as that in April, slightly lower than the Wind consensus expectation of 8.8%. The newly added RMB loans in the social financing caliber in May were 59.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.37 billion yuan compared with the same period last year and an increase of 50.76 billion yuan compared with April [18]. - **PMI Data**: The PMI in June 2025 was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with May [21]. - **Investment Data**: From January to May 2025, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.91947 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed asset investment was flat year-on-year [26]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to May 2025, the national new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%; the housing sales area was 70.53 million square meters, a decrease of 4.6%; the housing completion area was 183.85 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3% [29]. - **Crude Steel Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a detailed supply and demand balance sheet of crude steel from 2019 to 2025E, including crude steel production, pig iron production, scrap steel production, crude steel imports, crude steel exports, and inventory [32]. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar continued to shrink [45]. Supply - **Long-Process Supply**: As of July 11, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points compared with July 4, a decrease of 0.43%. The daily average pig iron output was 239,800 tons, a decrease of 1,040 tons compared with July 4, a decrease of 0.43% [48]. - **Short-Process Supply**: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric furnace plants was 29.6% (+0.7). As of July 11, the iron-scrap price difference was -148.64 yuan (+48.7) [51]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival of scrap steel at 255 steel mills decreased month-on-month. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises decreased month-on-month [7]. - **Rebar Production**: This week, the original sample output of rebar was 216,660 tons (-44,200), of which the long-process output was 189,740 tons (-55,000), and the short-process output was 26,920 tons (+10,800) [64]. Demand - **Building Materials Transactions**: The report provides transaction data of building materials in different regions, including the northern, eastern, and southern regions [67][69][71]. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating load of national cement mills was 40.79%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points compared with last week, and the increase rate expanded by 0.14 percentage points [75]. - **Real Estate Sales**: The report provides high-frequency sales data of 30 cities in the real estate market [77]. - **Rebar Inventory**: This period, the original sample rebar factory inventory was 180,880 tons (+410), the social inventory was 359,490 tons (-5,250), and the total inventory was 540,370 tons (-4,840) [80]. - **Hot-Rolled Coil Supply and Demand**: This week, the output of hot-rolled coils was 323,140 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 50,000 tons. The apparent demand was 322,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 510 tons, and the social inventory increased by 1,140 tons, with the overall inventory increasing by 630 tons [83]. - **Plate Demand**: As of July 11, the cold-hot price difference in the Shanghai area was 480 yuan/ton (+20) [90]. - **Export Situation**: As of July 11, the FOB export price of China was 450 US dollars (-), and the export profit was -18.6 US dollars (-5.2). The outbound volume from 32 major domestic ports was 3.1363 million tons (+691,200) [96].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoint - No information provided 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from June 10 to June 16, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, Lecong for hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils. For example, Beijing rebar price was 3180 on June 10 and 3200 on June 11. The prices of Tianjin hot - rolled coil, Shanghai hot - rolled coil, and Tianjin cold - rolled coil changed by 40, 60, and 80 respectively from June 13 to June 16 [1] Basis and Spread - No information provided Production and Inventory - No information provided