第一部分 结论 第二部分 供需基本面 黑色金属周报-钢材 宏观预期改善 钢价低位修复 2025年10月27日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL:010-82292661 目录 1 宏观预期改善 钢价低位修复 本周国内钢材现货价格小幅波动，截至周六，华东上海螺纹3170元（-）；上海热卷3290元， （+20）。 五大品种钢材整体产量增8.37万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比降1.27吨，社库降26.14吨。表观 需892.73万吨，环比增17.32万吨。截至10月24日，长流程现货端，华东螺纹长流程现金含税成本 3143元，点对点利润27元左右，热卷长流程现金含税利润47元左右。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本 在3294元左右，谷电成本在3151.5左右，华东螺纹平电利润-174元左右，谷电利润-31元。 废钢端，截止10月23日，张家港废钢价格2140元/吨，环比持平。数据显示，89家独立电弧炉 企业产能利用率33.2%，环比下降1.2个百分点；255家样本钢厂日耗51.4万吨，环比下降0.94万吨； 其中，132家长流程钢厂日耗24.9万吨/天，环比下降0. ...

据商务部市场运行监测系统显示，10月13日至19日，全国生产资料市场价格比前一周（环比，下同）下 降0.2%。 橡胶价格小幅下降，其中合成橡胶、天然橡胶分别下降2.7%和1.4%。 钢材价格总体下降，其中螺纹钢、热轧带钢、普通中板每吨3306元、3509元和3696元，分别下降 1.5%、1.3%和1.1%。 成品油批发价格略有下降，其中92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油分别下降1.0%、0.9%和0.8%。 化肥价格继续下降，其中尿素、三元复合肥均下降0.3%。 有色金属价格略有回落，其中锌、铜、铝分别下降0.5%、0.1%和0.1%。 煤炭价格略有上涨，其中炼焦煤、动力煤、无烟块煤每吨1040元、763元和1156元，分别上涨0.9%、 0.4%和0.2%。 基础化学原料价格以涨为主，其中硫酸、纯碱分别上涨2.7%和0.1%，聚丙烯、甲醇分别下降0.5%和 0.3%。 ...

Report Overview - The report is a steel morning report released by the Black Team of the Research Center on October 21, 2025, covering spot prices, price and profit, basis and spread, production and inventory [1] Spot Prices Rebar - The spot prices of rebar in different regions from October 14 - 20, 2025 are presented. Beijing's price changed from 3110 to 3120 (a 50 increase), Shanghai's remained at 3210, Chengdu's stayed at 3270, Xi'an's held at 3130, Guangzhou's was stable at 3230, and Wuhan's rose from 3210 to 3240 (a 30 increase) [1] Hot - Rolled Coils - For hot - rolled coils, from October 14 - 20, 2025, Tianjin's price was stable at 3170, Shanghai's remained at 3250, and Lecong's increased from 3230 to 3310 (a 120 increase) [1] Cold - Rolled Coils - Regarding cold - rolled coils, Tianjin's and Shanghai's prices remained unchanged at 3680 and 3750 respectively, while Lecong's increased from 3790 to 3850 (a 100 increase) from October 14 - 20, 2025 [1] Other Sections - The report also mentions sections on price and profit [2], basis and spread [9], and production and inventory [10], but no detailed content for these sections is provided in the given text

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View No information provided in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan threaded steel, as well as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong hot-rolled coils and cold-rolled coils from October 10 to October 16, 2025, and shows their price changes [1]. Basis and Spread No information provided in the given content. Production and Inventory No information provided in the given content.

| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/09/11 | 3150 | 3210 | 3250 | 3190 | 3240 | 3250 | | 2025/09/12 | 3190 | 3210 | 3290 | 3230 | 3240 | 3230 | | 2025/09/15 | 3190 | 3260 | 3290 | 3230 | 3330 | 3280 | | 2025/09/16 | 3220 | 3280 | 3310 | 3260 | 3360 | 3290 | | 2025/09/17 | 3180 | 3240 | 3270 | 3220 | 3360 | 3290 | | 变化 | -40 | -40 | -40 | -40 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津 ...

价 格 和 利 润 | | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/09/10 | 3160 | 3210 | 3260 | 3210 | 3300 | 3260 | | 2025/09/11 | 3150 | 3210 | 3250 | 3190 | 3240 | 3250 | | 2025/09/12 | 3190 | 3210 | 3290 | 3230 | 3240 | 3230 | | 2025/09/15 | 3190 | 3260 | 3290 | 3230 | 3330 | 3280 | | 2025/09/16 | 3220 | 3280 | 3310 | 3260 | 3360 | 3290 | | 变化 | 30 | 20 | 20 | 30 | 30 | 10 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of finished steel products rebounded briefly and then declined. The spot market was relatively strong, and the basis widened significantly. The consumption of listed steel products decreased month - on - month, while the total output increased slightly. - In terms of varieties, both the production and sales of rebar decreased, with consumption declining faster than production, and the total inventory continued to rise. Both the production and sales of hot - rolled coils increased, and the total inventory increased slightly month - on - month. In the short term, the structure of stronger hot - rolled coils and weaker rebar is maintained. For rebar, the valuation is in the repair stage, and the 01 contract should pay attention to the support at 3200. Operate with caution [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Supply and Demand Fundamentals** - **Price and Output**: Last week, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated slightly. As of August 14, the total output of five major steel products increased by 2420 tons. The apparent demand was 831,020 tons, a decrease of 14,720 tons month - on - month. As of August 15, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of rebar in East China was 3134.5 yuan, with a profit of about 138 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 225.5 yuan. For electric furnaces in East China, the flat - rate electricity cost was about 3368 yuan, and the valley - rate electricity cost was about 3240 yuan [6]. - **Scrap Steel**: As of August 15, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 36.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 558,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6100 tons. The supply of scrap steel increased, but the inventory of 255 steel enterprises decreased by 2.6% [7]. - **Macro Data**: In 2025 from January to July, the cumulative output of pig iron was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% year - on - year, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year - on - year. In July 2025, the PMI was 49.3%. The newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises decreased year - on - year. From January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, infrastructure investment decreased by 5.07%, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17% [17][19][23]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and the completed floor area decreased by 16.5% year - on - year [30]. **Main Varieties' Basis and Spread** - **Spread Strategy**: This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to be strong [41]. **Supply Analysis** - **Long - Process Supply**: As of August 15, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%, and the daily output of hot metal was 2407,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.14% [44]. - **Short - Process Supply**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric furnace plants was 36.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. As of August 15, the iron - scrap price difference was - 37.7 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.3 yuan [47]. **Demand - Related Indicators** - **Rebar Production**: This week, the original sample output of rebar was 220,450 tons, a decrease of 730 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 190,250 tons, a decrease of 290 tons, and the short - process output was 30,200 tons, a decrease of 440 tons [60]. - **Building Materials Transactions**: The trading volume of building materials in different regions showed different trends [63]. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating rate of national cement mills was 41.91%, a month - on - month increase of 6.2 percentage points, turning from a decline to an increase [71]. - **Real Estate Sales**: The 30 - city real - estate sales data showed certain trends [73]. **Inventory Situation** - **Rebar Inventory**: The original sample rebar factory inventory was 172,260 tons, an increase of 4060 tons, the social inventory was 414,930 tons, an increase of 26,450 tons, and the total inventory was 587,190 tons, an increase of 30,510 tons [76]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 315,590 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons. The apparent demand was 314,750 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8540 tons. The factory inventory increased by 2100 tons, the social inventory decreased by 1210 tons, and the total inventory increased by 840 tons [79]. **Export Situation** - As of August 15, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars, an increase of 5 US dollars, and the export profit was - 4.5 US dollars, an increase of 6.4 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 3.0699 million tons, an increase of 425,500 tons [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the supply - demand structure continued to weaken last week, market sentiment cooled significantly, and it is expected that the black market still has room for correction, but differentiation among varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and pay attention to the correction space [7]. - For iron ore, the supply decreased slightly week - on - week last week, demand increased marginally, and the supply - demand structure improved week - on - week. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, and the ore price may maintain the current oscillating and slightly strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading [7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Rebar prices corrected from high levels last week, hot - rolled coils oscillated, and the trends of coils and rebars diverged. The rebar 10 contract fell 25 to 3188, and the spot price in East China dropped 20 week - on - week to 3320 yuan/ton [13]. 1.2 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points week - on - week and 4.30 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week and 11.89 tons year - on - year [15]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.39%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points week - on - week and 21.74 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 76.39%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points week - on - week and 23.97 percentage points year - on - year [24]. - The supply of five major steel products last week was 871.63 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons week - on - week, a growth rate of 0.3%. Among them, rebar production decreased by 0.7 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 tons [28]. 1.3 Demand - From August 6th to 12th, the national cement delivery volume was 2.608 million tons, a decrease of 1.27% week - on - week and 19.88% year - on - year. The direct supply volume of infrastructure cement was 1.59 million tons, a decrease of 1.24% week - on - week and 3.64% year - on - year. The speculative demand for building materials also declined [31]. - For hot - rolled coils, from August 1st to 10th, the national passenger car retail sales were 452,000 units, a decrease of 4% year - on - year and an increase of 6% compared with the same period last month. Manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [34]. 1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The average profit of independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was - 47 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. 1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products last week was 14.1597 million tons, an increase of 406,100 tons week - on - week, a growth rate of 2.95%. Rebar social inventory increased significantly, and the factory inventory also increased by 40,000 tons [42]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - plant inventory increased by 21,000 tons, and the social inventory increased by 8,400 tons [45]. 1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 basis was 112, a narrowing of 5 compared with last week. The hot - rolled coil basis was - 9, a narrowing of 21 compared with last week [48]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 81, a deeper inversion of 8 compared with last week. As the 10 - contract approaches its end, the pressure on the near - month contract increases [51]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The current spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the futures market was 251, an expansion of 36 compared with last week. The spot spread was 130, an expansion of 20 compared with last week [54]. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Iron ore prices oscillated after a correction last week, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. The 09 contract rose 7 to 790, with both trading volume and open interest declining. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 2 to 771 yuan/ton [60]. 2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.467 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in August was 30.543 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with last month and 1.2 million tons compared with last year [63]. - The weekly average shipment volume from Australia was 17.214 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons compared with last month and 610,000 tons compared with last year. The weekly average shipment volume from Brazil was 8.099 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons compared with last month and 210,000 tons compared with last year [66]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 510,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in August was 25.97 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons compared with last month and 320,000 tons compared with last year [69]. 2.3 Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week. Iron ore demand rebounded week - on - week, and it is expected to increase further next week [72]. - The average daily port trading volume last week was 954,000 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons week - on - week. Steel mills replenished their stocks as needed [76]. 2.4 Inventory - As of August 15th, the total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week - on - week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 12.71 million tons lower than the same period last year [79]. - On August 14th, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills was 27.7594 million tons, an increase of 196,600 tons compared with the previous period [82]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 9.93 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost from Brazil to China was 24.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.68 US dollars week - on - week [85]. 2.6 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 20.5, unchanged compared with last week, at a relatively low - neutral level. The 01 - contract discount was 19.5, basically unchanged compared with last week, at a relatively low level [89].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View No core view is provided in the report. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report shows the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from August 11 to August 15, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, Lecong for hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils. It also presents the price changes during this period, such as a 0 change in most rebar prices and - 20 for Tianjin hot - rolled coil, - 30 for Tianjin cold - rolled coil [1]. Output and Inventory No content related to output and inventory is provided in the report. Basis and Spread No content related to basis and spread is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan's rebar, as well as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong's hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils from August 5th to August 11th, 2025, along with their price changes [1]. Production and Inventory - Not provided Basis and Spread - Not provided