铂钯周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 杨蕤（联系人）从业资格号：F03151404 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 本周广铂及广钯周度表现仍然亮眼，周线均收阳，但能观测到广期所铂 钯价格开始分化，广铂周涨幅均在25%以上，而广钯周内冲高后回落， 周涨幅只有3.4%。外盘铂钯在圣诞节前夕小幅撤步后迎来了更大的向上 弹性，铂金刷新年内新高，钯金逼近前高，离2000美元/盎司关键关口 仅一步之遥。 在本周，铂钯的跨市场和期现套利窗口持续扩大，广期所不断出台政策 以防范行情过热风险。高频数据方面，观测到NYMEX库存开始新一轮的 流入，铂金ETF持仓流入速度边际抬升，而钯金流入速度有所放缓。ETF 持仓的不同表现对应铂钯价格开始分化的局面，且内盘分化程度更加明 显，比价来到1.37，而外盘比价在周五夜间获得修复，收于1.28。其余 高频数据并没有显示铂钯面临的现货结 ...

铂钯周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 杨蕤（联系人）从业资格号：F03151404 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铂金：继续脉冲式上涨；钯金：突破前高向前迈进 强弱分析：铂金偏强、钯金偏强 本周广铂及广钯强势拉升，周涨幅均在15%以上。境外铂钯（伦敦及纽 约）同样强势，整周都处在境内外双市场共振上涨的行情之中。涨势如 虹一方面因为美元弱势，支撑具有金融属性品种价格；更多的还是因为 伦敦市场现货紧张，境内外投资情绪高涨，"薄盘效应"下铂钯的价格 更容易被抬升。 在本周，铂钯的跨市场和期现套利窗口均迅速打开，在周四达到阶段性 峰值，周五由于广期所规定单日开仓上限500手，叠加亚盘外盘金银有 所撤步，广铂周五收阴，广钯小幅收涨，随后周五夜盘境外铂钯走势重 回强劲。由于伦敦铂金的现货紧张局面不改，同时铂钯ETF持续流入；技 术面上铂钯已经强势突破许多关键点位，和6 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 19 日 铂：ETF 持续流入，震荡上行 钯：顺利突破前高，上行动能充足 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 542. 60 | | 2. 85% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 511. 65 | | 2.76% | | | | 纽约铂主连 | 1959. 20 | | 1. 43% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金 | 1920. 90 | | 0. 77% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 476. 60 | | 4. 71% | | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 388. 00 | | -1.77% | | | 价格 | 纽约包主连 | 1, 778. 50 | | 5. 05% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金 | 1, 700. 00 | | 3.25% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - Platinum: ETF shows significant incremental growth, with an expected oscillatory upward trend [1] - Palladium: Demonstrates upward elasticity and is expected to continue strengthening [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals of platinum and palladium, including price, trading volume, position, ETF position, inventory, price spread, and exchange rate data. It also provides macro - and industry - related news, and gives the trend intensity of platinum and palladium [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 527.55 with an 8.61% increase; gold - exchange platinum closed at 497.89 with a 5.64% increase; New York platinum continuous contract closed at 1931.50 with a 3.05% increase; London spot platinum closed at 1906.20 with a 3.90% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 455.15 with a 7.38% increase; RMB spot palladium closed at 395.00 with a 2.33% increase; New York palladium continuous contract closed at 1,725.00 with a 3.76% increase; London spot palladium closed at 1,646.50 with a 2.52% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Position**: Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 97,796, a decrease of 119 from the previous day, with a position of 30,716, an increase of 6,066. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 50,662, an increase of 4,232, and the position was 51,116, a decrease of 3,125. Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 58,188, an increase of 3,302, and the position was 10,036, an increase of 2,402. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 9,919, an increase of 1,430, and the position was 21,368, an increase of 378 [1] - **ETF Position**: The previous day's platinum ETF position (in ounces) was 3,217,562, an increase of 28,589; the previous day's palladium ETF position (in ounces) was 1,126,123, an increase of 1,869 [1] - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 614,561, unchanged; NYMEX palladium inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 189,230, unchanged [1] - **Price Spread**: PT9995 to PT2606 price spread was - 29.66, a decrease of 15.23 from the previous day; Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract price spread was 1.65, an increase of 2.20; the cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 6.52, an increase of 0.49 [1] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.40, an increase of 0.18%; the US dollar against the RMB (CNY spot) was 7.04, a decrease of 0.06%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.03, a decrease of 0.12%; the US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.96, an increase of 0.04% [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Federal Reserve's joint survey shows that tariffs continue to trouble enterprises, and prices are expected to rise by 4% next year [4] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that monetary policy is still in a restrictive range, with room for interest rate cuts. The employment market indicates that the Federal Reserve should continue to cut interest rates [4] - US media reported that if Putin rejects the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, the US will impose new sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet", and the White House responded that there is no new decision for now [4] - US and Russia will hold talks on the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Miami this weekend [4] - Venezuelan navy escorts the transportation of petroleum by - products [4] - The US has agreed to modify the tariff rates of some commodities in the notice on Swiss tariffs, and expects to reach a trade agreement by the first quarter of 2026 [4] - The European Parliament has approved an agreement to phase out Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027 [4] - The Bank of Thailand has no current plan to tax gold - related transactions [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity: 1; Palladium trend intensity: 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3]