Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the doc 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum was dragged down by the US stock market, and the precious metals sector including palladium showed signs of weakness [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 544.90 with a -1.13% decline; gold exchange platinum at 541.04 with a -0.80% decline; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) at 2025.00 with a -5.28% decline; London spot platinum (previous day) at 1999.40 with a -6.99% decline. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 430.05 with a -2.06% decline; RMB spot palladium at 408.00 with a -0.97% decline; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) at 1639.00 with a -5.27% decline; London spot palladium (previous day) at 1626.50 with a -4.88% decline [2] - **Trading Volume and Position**: For platinum, Guangdong platinum trading volume was 5,442 kg, a decrease of 1,389 kg from the previous day, and the position was 26,111 kg, a decrease of 201 kg. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 27,278 kg, an increase of 1,760 kg, and the position was 83,039 kg, a decrease of 365 kg. For palladium, Guangdong palladium trading volume was 3,134 kg, an increase of 162 kg, and the position was 9,103 kg, a decrease of 311 kg. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 17,278 kg, an increase of 6,177 kg, and the position was 34,677 kg, a decrease of 1,431 kg [2] - **ETF Position**: Platinum ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 3,268,123, a decrease of 424; palladium ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 1,191,075, a decrease of 3,894 [2] - **Inventory**: Guangdong platinum inventory was 1 kg; NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 583,369 with no change. Guangdong palladium inventory was 1 kg; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 186,863 with no change [2] - **Spread**: Various spreads for platinum and palladium showed different changes compared to the previous day, such as the PT9995 - PT2606 spread increased by 1.91, and the Guangdong platinum 2606 - 2610 spread decreased by 1.05 [2] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 96.91 with a 0.05% increase; the US dollar - RMB (CNY spot) was 6.91 with a 0.03% increase; the US dollar - offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.91 with no change; the US dollar - RMB (6M forward) was 6.82 with a -0.48% decrease [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US two warships collided near South America, and the cause is under investigation. The US Treasury Secretary agreed to let the Senate instead of the Justice Department investigate Powell to get the nomination of the new Fed Chairman approved. The White House submitted an emergency plan to avoid the shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security [4] - Trump said the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, and Netanyahu said Trump might reach a good agreement with Iran. The US Department of Defense instructed a second aircraft - carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East. The US Treasury will further relax sanctions on Venezuela this week. The US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 7 were 227,000, higher than the expected 222,000. Russia proposed 7 - point economic cooperation suggestions to the US to seek Trump's support. Anthropic completed a $30 billion financing, and its valuation reached $380 billion [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity was 0, and palladium trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

2026 年 01 月 19 日 商 品 研 究 铂：ETF 较大幅度流出，上方承压 钯：跟随区间震荡 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 610. 05 | | 0. 16% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 602. 46 | | 0. 85% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2342. 90 | | -3.02% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2332. 40 | | -3.46% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 469. 35 | | -1.93% | | | | 人民币现货包金 | 441.00 | | 1. 38% | | | 价格 | 纽约兜主连(前日) | 1.846.50 | | -1.02% | | | | 伦敦现货包金(前日) | 1. 804. 00 | | -1.04% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 广铂(千克) | 25.702 | -4.345 | 37 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the precious metals industry. Core Insights - The relationship between ETF "lock-in" mechanisms and market trends indicates that while ETFs have evolved into structural amplifiers of precious metal prices, they are not the primary drivers of current gold and silver prices. Instead, macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and central bank purchases play a more significant role [4][7][24]. Summary by Sections ETF Lock-in Mechanism - The ETF lock-in mechanism has transitioned from being a price follower to a structural amplifier of precious metal market trends. Prior to 2022, there was a strong correlation between gold ETF holdings and gold prices, but this relationship has weakened significantly since then [7][15][24]. - For silver and platinum, the impact of ETF lock-in on market dynamics is more pronounced, particularly in creating conditions for "short squeezes" due to tight physical supply [7][26][34]. Empirical Analysis - The correlation between daily changes in ETF holdings and price movements for gold and silver is generally weak, indicating that macroeconomic factors and futures market dynamics are more influential in short-term price movements [8][41][46]. - Historical data shows that during periods of low inventory and high ETF lock-in, price volatility can be significantly amplified, particularly for silver [8][51][79]. Market Dynamics - In the medium to long term, the inflow of funds into ETFs, combined with central bank purchases and declining interest rates, is expected to shift the demand curve for gold to the right, thereby raising the price equilibrium [4][94]. - For silver, the combination of ETF lock-in, industrial demand, and regional inventory mismatches is likely to amplify the price effects of a tight fundamental balance [4][94]. Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that the ETF lock-in is not the starting point for market trends but can significantly amplify tail-end price movements during extreme market conditions [94][100]. - Strategies for investment should focus on monitoring total holdings and net inflows/outflows to gauge future price movements, particularly in the context of gold and silver [100][102].

2026 年 01 月 12 日 逆向策略 ETF 发行 -海外创新产品周报 20260112 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 由万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 载 9T3 美国 ETF 创新产品：逆向策略 ETF 发行。 上周美国共 11 只新发产品，Global X 发行零 ○ 息债券目标到期日系列产品; Tidal 和 LOGIQ 上周发行一只 "逆向策略" ETF, 通过和市 场反向的观点寻找股票、债券中的低估机会，产品可以通过期权等工具来增厚收益。 美国 ETF 资金流向：国际股票产品流入再次超过美国股票。过去一周中，美国国际股票 O ETF 流入再次超过美国国内股票产品，债券 ETF 有 100 亿美元以上流入；Vanquard 标 普 500ETF 继续为流入第一产品，股票、债券的宽基产品都在流入前列，贝莱德的国际股 ...

2026 年 01 月 12 日 逆向策略 ETF 发行 ——海外创新产品周报 20260112 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com ETP 研 究 - ⚫ 美国 ETF 创新产品：逆向策略 ETF 发行。上周美国共 11 只新发产品，Global X 发行零 息债券目标到期日系列产品；Tidal 和 LOGIQ 上周发行一只"逆向策略"ETF，通过和市 场反向的观点寻找股票、债券中的低估机会，产品可以通过期权等工具来增厚收益。 ⚫ 美国 ETF 资金流向：国际股票产品流入再次超过美国股票。过去一周中，美国国际股票 ETF 流入再次超过美国国内股票产品，债券 ETF 有 100 亿美元以上流入；Vanguard 标 普 500ETF 继续为流入第一产品，股票、债券的宽基产品都在流入前列，贝莱德的国际股 票产品流入较多，而美股风格产品、高收益债产品有所流出。 ⚫ 美国 E ...

刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨幅 | 575. 00 | 铂金期货2606 | -3.93% | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金交所铂金 | 579. 73 | -4. 26% | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2282. 60 | -0. 34% | | | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2283. 00 | -0. 29% | 纪金期货2606 | 460. 70 | -3. 20% | | | | | | 人民币现货包金 | 429.00 | -1. 15% | 价格 | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.833.50 | 0. 91% | | | | | 伦敦现货纪金(前日) | 1.798.00 | 1.73% | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | | | | | 广铂（千克） | 53,725 | -29, 103 | 40, 169 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market has experienced significant adjustments, particularly in platinum and palladium, which saw a sharp decline, reflecting short-term pressure on the precious metals market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 30, 2025, the main contracts for platinum and palladium on the Guangxi Futures Exchange hit the daily limit down, with declines of 13% each, marking them as the largest losers in the domestic futures market [1][2]. - Internationally, platinum prices fell by 13.71% and palladium by 15.76% overnight [1]. - Year-to-date, NYMEX platinum futures have increased by 140%, with a volatility of 187.91%, while palladium has risen by 82.85% with a volatility of 138.37% [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent price surge in platinum and palladium is attributed to a combination of supply constraints, awakened investment demand, and long-term growth expectations, particularly in the Chinese market [6]. - Retail investment demand for platinum has reached historical highs, driven by its perceived value compared to gold and its role in hedging against inflation [6]. - The recent sharp declines in prices are linked to regulatory measures that have increased trading costs and reduced speculative trading activity, leading to a liquidity crunch [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The global platinum market is expected to face a shortage of 26.4 tons in 2025, despite a 4% year-on-year decline in total demand [11][12]. - There are differing opinions on the outlook for platinum and palladium in 2026, with some analysts predicting strong price increases due to robust automotive demand, while others foresee potential oversupply due to changing market dynamics [13][14]. - Factors such as ongoing central bank gold purchases, persistent inflation, and low real interest rates may support precious metal prices, although industrial demand weakness poses significant downward pressure [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum shows a strong upward trend, while palladium starts to diverge from platinum with a slower upward pace. Both are considered relatively strong [3]. - The price range is expected to be 650 - 800 yuan/gram for the main platinum contract and 480 - 600 yuan/gram for the main palladium contract [4]. - This week, the prices of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showed positive weekly performance, but a divergence was observed. The weekly increase of platinum was over 25%, while palladium increased by only 3.4% after reaching a high and then falling. The overseas platinum and palladium prices had a greater upward rebound after a slight retreat before Christmas. Platinum hit a new high for the year, and palladium approached its previous high, getting close to the key level of $2,000 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: As of the close on Friday, the total open interest of platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 52,265 lots, with a trading volume of 573,824 lots this week. The total open interest of palladium was 30,775 lots, with a trading volume of 576,328 lots [8]. - **Inter - market and Spot - Futures Arbitrage**: The cross - market and spot - futures arbitrage windows for platinum and palladium continued to expand this week, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange introduced policies to prevent overheating risks [5]. - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread**: For platinum, the spread between London spot platinum and the main New York platinum contract converged to an average of -$30 per ounce, and the spread between New York continuous platinum and the main contract was slightly at a discount of -$20 per ounce. For palladium, the spread between London spot palladium and the main New York palladium contract was at a further discount of -$120 per ounce, and the spread between New York continuous palladium and the main contract also remained negative, converging to -$35 per ounce [13][16]. - **Spot - Futures Positive Arbitrage**: For platinum, the cost of buying spot and selling the 2606 contract was 10.4 yuan/gram, with a spread of 43.2 yuan/gram, leaving a profit margin of 32.8 yuan/gram. For palladium, the cost was 7.6 yuan/gram, the spread was 30.9 yuan/gram, with a profit margin of 23.3 yuan/gram [17][19]. - **Near - Far Month Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage**: For platinum, the cost of buying the 2606 contract and selling the 2610 contract was 8.6 yuan/gram, with a spread of only 2.6 yuan/gram, so the arbitrage window was not yet open. For palladium, the cost was 6.4 yuan/gram, the spread was 6.4 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window was also not open [21][23]. - **Import Parity Calculation**: For platinum, the cost of buying London platinum forward and selling the 2606 contract was 69.5 yuan/gram, with a spread of 190.1 yuan/gram, leaving a profit margin of 120.6 yuan/gram. For palladium, the cost was 53.8 yuan/gram, the spread was 118.2 yuan/gram, and the profit margin was 64.4 yuan/gram [25][27]. - **Recycling Spread**: As the absolute prices of platinum and palladium rose, the recycling discount of platinum deepened to -119 yuan/gram, while that of palladium remained at around -60 yuan/gram [29]. - **ETF Holdings**: This week, platinum ETF holdings increased by 1.67 tons (about 538,000 ounces), and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.47 tons (about 151,000 ounces). The growth rate of platinum ETF holdings showed an upward trend, while that of palladium slowed down [31]. 3.2 Fundamental Aspects (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - **Forward Discount Rate**: In the past month, both the overseas forward markets of platinum and palladium were in a discount structure. This week, the platinum discount remained at a high level, with discounts for all tenors above an annualized rate of 10%. The discount of palladium decreased, with all tenors falling within an annualized rate of 3% [37]. - **Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio**: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory slightly increased to 646,895.5 ounces (about 20.12 tons), and the ratio of registered warehouse receipts decreased to 48%. The NYMEX palladium inventory slightly increased to 198,039.61 ounces (about 6.16 tons), and the ratio of registered warehouse receipts rose above 71% [38][41]. - **China's Import - Export Data**: Since September 2025, the export volume of platinum has surged, the import volume and net inflow have diverged, and the cumulative net inflow since January 2020 has been 557.17 tons. In November, the import volume decreased to 4.58 tons, and the net inflow rate also slowed down to 3.34 tons. December data has not been released. Since 2020, palladium has had almost no export volume, being in a state of pure import, and the cumulative net inflow has been 162 tons. In November, the import volume increased to 3.02 tons, with a net inflow of 3.02 tons. December data has not been released [48]. - **London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance**: For London platinum, the supply - demand balance value fell into the negative range only on one day this week, and the absolute value was not large. For London palladium, the value fell into the negative range on two days, and the absolute value was also not large [50][52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Platinum continues to rise impulsively, and palladium is moving forward to break through the previous high. Both platinum and palladium are relatively strong. The price ranges are 500 - 580 yuan/gram for Guangbo platinum and 440 - 520 yuan/gram for Guangbo palladium. [3][4] - This week, both Guangbo platinum and palladium had strong rallies, with weekly gains of over 15%. Overseas platinum and palladium also showed strength. The rally was due to the weak US dollar and the tight spot market in London, along with high investment sentiment. It is expected that platinum and palladium will continue to rise strongly next week, with greater volatility expected for Guangbo platinum. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) - This week, the 2612 contracts of platinum and palladium were launched for trading. As of Friday's close, the total positions of Guangbo platinum were 37,675 lots with a trading volume of 548,453 lots, and the total positions of Guangbo palladium were 15,079 lots with a trading volume of 322,496 lots. The current monthly structure of platinum is PT2606 < PT2608 < PT2610 < PT2612, and that of palladium is PD2606 < PD2608 < PD2610 < PD2612. The inventory data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is not yet disclosed. [8] - This week, the spread between London spot platinum and New York platinum's active contract widened to an average of -$60 per ounce. The spread between New York platinum's continuous contract and the active contract became at a discount, with an average spread of -$60 per ounce in the past three days. The spread between London spot palladium and New York palladium's active contract was further at a discount, reaching -$100 per ounce, and the spread between New York palladium's continuous contract and the active contract also remained negative, with a spread of -$50 per ounce on Friday. [10][13] - For platinum's spot-futures positive arbitrage (buy spot and sell 2606), the cost is 8.2 yuan/gram, the spread is 21.9 yuan/gram, and there is a profit margin of 13.7 yuan/gram. For palladium's spot-futures positive arbitrage, the cost is 7.1 yuan/gram, the spread is 50.2 yuan/gram, and there is a profit margin of 43.1 yuan/gram. [16][18] - For platinum's near-far month calendar spread positive arbitrage (buy 2606 and sell 2610), the cost is 6.6 yuan/gram, the spread is only 3.4 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window is not yet open. For palladium's near-far month calendar spread positive arbitrage, the cost is 5.9 yuan/gram, the spread is 3.0 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window is not yet open. [20][22] - For the import parity calculation of platinum (buy London platinum forward and sell 2606), the cost is 57.2 yuan/gram, the spread is 110.2 yuan/gram, and there is a profit margin of 53 yuan/gram. For palladium, the cost is 51.8 yuan/gram, the spread is 97.6 yuan/gram, and there is a profit margin of 45.8 yuan/gram. [24][26] - As the absolute prices of platinum and palladium rose this week, the recycling discount of platinum slightly deepened to -98 yuan/gram, and that of palladium also slightly deepened to -53 yuan/gram. [28] - This week, the holdings of platinum ETFs increased by 1.23 tons (about 395,000 ounces), and the holdings of palladium ETFs increased by 0.92 tons (about 296,000 ounces). [30] Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - In the past month, both the overseas forward markets of platinum and palladium have been in a contango structure. In the past week, the contango of platinum has shown an upward trend again, with all tenors' contango remaining above 10% annualized. The contango depth of palladium has decreased, with all tenors' contango falling within 3% annualized. [36] - This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory slightly increased to 624,700 ounces, about 19.43 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants fell below 50%. The NYMEX palladium inventory slightly decreased to 189,100 ounces, about 5.9 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants slightly rebounded to 70.3%. [37][40] - Since 2020, palladium has had almost no export volume and has been in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 162 tons. In October, the import volume was 2.98 tons, and the net inflow was 2.96 tons. In November, the data is not yet available. Since September 2025, the export volume of platinum has increased sharply, and the import volume and net inflow have diverged. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow of platinum has been 547.98 tons. In October, the import volume was 10.15 tons, and the net inflow was 6.43 tons. In November, the data is not yet available. [47] - A negative supply - demand balance indicates that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, and the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices have a stronger willingness to buy. The supply - demand balance of London platinum fixing was negative for four days this week, indicating a tight spot market for London platinum. The supply - demand balance of London palladium fixing was negative on Thursday and Friday. [48][49]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 19 日 铂：ETF 持续流入，震荡上行 钯：顺利突破前高，上行动能充足 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 542. 60 | | 2. 85% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 511. 65 | | 2.76% | | | | 纽约铂主连 | 1959. 20 | | 1. 43% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金 | 1920. 90 | | 0. 77% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 476. 60 | | 4. 71% | | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 388. 00 | | -1.77% | | | 价格 | 纽约包主连 | 1, 778. 50 | | 5. 05% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金 | 1, 700. 00 | | 3.25% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前 ...