Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Keep an eye on the support level of platinum at the current point, and there has been a significant outflow from palladium ETF holdings [1] - The trend strength of platinum and palladium is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Price - Platinum futures 2606 closed at 552.70 with a 3.73% increase; gold exchange platinum closed at 548.93 with a 3.84% increase; New York platinum main contract (previous day) was at 2123.30 with a 0.48% increase; London spot platinum (previous day) was at 2124.90 with a 0.61% increase [1] - Palladium futures 2606 closed at 407.75 with a 2.31% increase; RMB spot palladium was at 390.00 with a 6.27% increase; New York palladium main contract (previous day) was at 1,618.00 with a -0.15% change; London spot palladium (previous day) was at 1,602.00 with a -0.53% change [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 10,259 kg, an increase of 3,632 kg from the previous day, and open interest was 24,716 kg, a decrease of 114 kg [1] - NYMEX platinum trading volume was 26,810 kg, a decrease of 7,177 kg from the previous day, and open interest was 51,325 kg, a decrease of 2,900 kg [1] - Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 3,090 kg, a decrease of 211 kg from the previous day, and open interest was 9,188 kg, a decrease of 124 kg [1] - NYMEX palladium trading volume was 7,325 kg, a decrease of 7,720 kg from the previous day, and open interest was 45,682 kg, a decrease of 498 kg [1] ETF Holdings - Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,180,871, a decrease of 3,220 [1] - Palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1,106,950, a decrease of 23,512 [1] Inventory - Guangzhou platinum inventory was 1 kg, with no change; NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 582,441, with no change [1] - Guangzhou palladium inventory was 1 kg, with no change; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 200,716, with no change [1] Spread - PT9995 to PT2606 spread was -3.77, an increase of 0.38 from the previous day [1] - Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 3.70, a decrease of 3.15 from the previous day [1] - Cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 6.82, an increase of 0.24 from the previous day [1] - Spread between Guangzhou platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 18.23, an increase of 16.68 from the previous day [1] - Spread between RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was -17.75, an increase of 13.80 from the previous day [1] - Guangzhou palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 0.90, a decrease of 3.85 from the previous day [1] - Cost of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 5.10, an increase of 0.11 from the previous day [1] - Spread between Guangzhou palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 11.34, an increase from -7 [1] Exchange Rate - The US dollar index was 99.56, a decrease of 0.93% [1] - USD/CNY (CNY spot) was 6.92, an increase of 0.34% [1] - USD/CNH (CNH spot) was 6.89, a decrease of 0.19% [1] - USD/CNY (6M forward) was 6.79, a decrease of 0.05% [1] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - "Fed whisperer": The Fed tends to stay silent this week, and recent shocks are two - way factors [4] - Trump: Not ready to end the conflict yet, but "we will leave in the near future" [4] - Trump is angry that inviting allies to participate in escorting has received a cold response, and the US is considering withdrawing from NATO. He also criticizes leaders like Starmer and Macron [4] - Iran's Supreme Leader rejects the proposal for peace talks with the US and insists on defeating the US and Israel and claiming compensation [4] - The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and the head of the Basij militia have died, and Iran has designated multiple replacement candidates for key national positions [4] - Iran attacks upstream oil and gas facilities in the UAE for the first time [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the doc 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum was dragged down by the US stock market, and the precious metals sector including palladium showed signs of weakness [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 544.90 with a -1.13% decline; gold exchange platinum at 541.04 with a -0.80% decline; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) at 2025.00 with a -5.28% decline; London spot platinum (previous day) at 1999.40 with a -6.99% decline. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 430.05 with a -2.06% decline; RMB spot palladium at 408.00 with a -0.97% decline; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) at 1639.00 with a -5.27% decline; London spot palladium (previous day) at 1626.50 with a -4.88% decline [2] - **Trading Volume and Position**: For platinum, Guangdong platinum trading volume was 5,442 kg, a decrease of 1,389 kg from the previous day, and the position was 26,111 kg, a decrease of 201 kg. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 27,278 kg, an increase of 1,760 kg, and the position was 83,039 kg, a decrease of 365 kg. For palladium, Guangdong palladium trading volume was 3,134 kg, an increase of 162 kg, and the position was 9,103 kg, a decrease of 311 kg. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 17,278 kg, an increase of 6,177 kg, and the position was 34,677 kg, a decrease of 1,431 kg [2] - **ETF Position**: Platinum ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 3,268,123, a decrease of 424; palladium ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 1,191,075, a decrease of 3,894 [2] - **Inventory**: Guangdong platinum inventory was 1 kg; NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 583,369 with no change. Guangdong palladium inventory was 1 kg; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 186,863 with no change [2] - **Spread**: Various spreads for platinum and palladium showed different changes compared to the previous day, such as the PT9995 - PT2606 spread increased by 1.91, and the Guangdong platinum 2606 - 2610 spread decreased by 1.05 [2] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 96.91 with a 0.05% increase; the US dollar - RMB (CNY spot) was 6.91 with a 0.03% increase; the US dollar - offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.91 with no change; the US dollar - RMB (6M forward) was 6.82 with a -0.48% decrease [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US two warships collided near South America, and the cause is under investigation. The US Treasury Secretary agreed to let the Senate instead of the Justice Department investigate Powell to get the nomination of the new Fed Chairman approved. The White House submitted an emergency plan to avoid the shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security [4] - Trump said the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, and Netanyahu said Trump might reach a good agreement with Iran. The US Department of Defense instructed a second aircraft - carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East. The US Treasury will further relax sanctions on Venezuela this week. The US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 7 were 227,000, higher than the expected 222,000. Russia proposed 7 - point economic cooperation suggestions to the US to seek Trump's support. Anthropic completed a $30 billion financing, and its valuation reached $380 billion [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity was 0, and palladium trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum faces upward pressure due to significant outflows from ETFs, while palladium follows a range-bound oscillation [1] - The trend strength of platinum and palladium is both 0, indicating a neutral stance [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 610.05 with a 0.16% increase; gold futures 2606 closed at 469.35 with a -1.93% decrease. Other price data for different platinum and palladium products are also provided, along with their daily changes [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes and open interests of various platinum and palladium contracts showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous day [1] - **ETF Holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings decreased by 11,610 ounces, while palladium ETF holdings increased by 1,044 ounces [1] - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 100 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventory decreased by 3,888 ounces [1] - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads between different platinum and palladium contracts and products are presented, along with their daily changes [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index rose by 0.29%, and the exchange rates between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan (both onshore and offshore) showed different degrees of change [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - China's General Administration of Customs stated that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, both exports and imports should be moderately expanded [3] - US-led coalition fighter jets flew over the conflict area in northern Syria and projected warning flares [3] - In response to US tariff threats, French President Macron said he would request the activation of the EU's anti-coercion tool if necessary [4] - Trump announced that starting from February 1st, a 10% tariff will be imposed on all goods exported to the US by 8 countries including Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, and the UK due to the Greenland issue. The tariff will be raised to 25% on June 1st [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the precious metals industry. Core Insights - The relationship between ETF "lock-in" mechanisms and market trends indicates that while ETFs have evolved into structural amplifiers of precious metal prices, they are not the primary drivers of current gold and silver prices. Instead, macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and central bank purchases play a more significant role [4][7][24]. Summary by Sections ETF Lock-in Mechanism - The ETF lock-in mechanism has transitioned from being a price follower to a structural amplifier of precious metal market trends. Prior to 2022, there was a strong correlation between gold ETF holdings and gold prices, but this relationship has weakened significantly since then [7][15][24]. - For silver and platinum, the impact of ETF lock-in on market dynamics is more pronounced, particularly in creating conditions for "short squeezes" due to tight physical supply [7][26][34]. Empirical Analysis - The correlation between daily changes in ETF holdings and price movements for gold and silver is generally weak, indicating that macroeconomic factors and futures market dynamics are more influential in short-term price movements [8][41][46]. - Historical data shows that during periods of low inventory and high ETF lock-in, price volatility can be significantly amplified, particularly for silver [8][51][79]. Market Dynamics - In the medium to long term, the inflow of funds into ETFs, combined with central bank purchases and declining interest rates, is expected to shift the demand curve for gold to the right, thereby raising the price equilibrium [4][94]. - For silver, the combination of ETF lock-in, industrial demand, and regional inventory mismatches is likely to amplify the price effects of a tight fundamental balance [4][94]. Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that the ETF lock-in is not the starting point for market trends but can significantly amplify tail-end price movements during extreme market conditions [94][100]. - Strategies for investment should focus on monitoring total holdings and net inflows/outflows to gauge future price movements, particularly in the context of gold and silver [100][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the latest developments in the US ETF and mutual fund markets, including new product launches, fund flows, and performance. Specifically, it highlights the issuance of reverse - strategy ETFs, the flow of funds into international stock ETFs exceeding domestic ones, the significant rise in commodity ETFs, and the changes in the flow of US ordinary mutual funds [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 US ETF Innovation Products: Reverse - Strategy ETF Issuance - Last week, 11 new products were issued in the US. Global X issued 6 zero - coupon bond target - maturity products from 2030 to 2035, which can reduce interest rate fluctuation risks. TappAlpha issued 1.3 - times leveraged products of its TSPY and TDAQ products. Tidal and LOGIQ issued a "reverse - strategy" ETF to find undervalued opportunities in stocks and bonds and can use options to increase returns. KraneShares issued a dynamic Buffer product based on the Nasdaq [4][5]. 3.2 US ETF Dynamics 3.2.1 US ETF Funds: International Stock Products' Inflows Exceed US Stocks Again - In the past week, international stock ETFs in the US had more inflows than domestic stock products, and bond ETFs had inflows of over $10 billion. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF was the top product in terms of inflows. Broad - based stock and bond products were at the forefront of inflows, while US stock style products and high - yield bond products had outflows [6][9]. 3.2.2 US ETF Performance: Commodity ETFs Rose Significantly - In the first week of 2026, precious metal assets had obvious increases. Silver ETFs rose by over 8%, platinum ETFs by nearly 10%, and comprehensive commodity ETFs also increased. The largest gold ETF's scale exceeded $150 billion [11]. 3.3 Recent US Ordinary Mutual Fund Fund Flows - In November 2025, the total non - money mutual funds in the US were $23.72 trillion, an increase of $0.03 trillion compared to October. The S&P 500 rose 0.13% in November, while the scale of domestic stock products decreased by 0.15%, and the redemption pressure eased. From December 23 to December 30, 2025, the outflows of domestic stock funds narrowed to less than $10 billion, and the outflows of mixed - allocation products also slowed down [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the latest developments in the US ETF market and the recent capital flow of US ordinary public - offering funds. It includes the issuance of new ETF products, capital flow trends, and performance of ETFs, as well as the capital flow of public - offering funds [1]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 US ETF Innovation Products: Reverse Strategy ETF Issuance - Last week, 11 new products were issued in the US. Global X issued 6 zero - coupon bond target - maturity products from 2030 to 2035, investing in US zero - coupon Treasury bonds to reduce interest - rate fluctuation risks [6]. - TappAlpha issued 1.3 - times leveraged products of its TSPY and TDAQ products, with the original products using a spot + option strategy, linked to the S&P 500 ETF SPY and the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ respectively [7]. - Tidal and LOGIQ issued a "reverse strategy" ETF, looking for undervalued opportunities in stocks and bonds through a view opposite to the market, and the product can use tools such as options to increase returns [7]. - KraneShares issued a dynamic Buffer product based on the Nasdaq index, which is similar to a collar strategy, buying put options (actually replicated through futures shorts) and selling call options to maintain a certain long - position exposure while obtaining option premium income [7]. 3.2 US ETF Dynamics 3.2.1 US ETF Capital: International Stock Products' Inflows Exceed US Stocks Again - In the past week, the inflows of US international stock ETFs exceeded those of US domestic stock products again, and bond ETFs had inflows of over $10 billion [8]. - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF continued to be the product with the largest inflow last week. Broad - based stock and bond products were at the forefront of inflows. BlackRock's international stock products had relatively large inflows, while US stock style products and high - yield bond products had outflows [11]. 3.2.2 US ETF Performance: Commodity ETFs Rose Significantly - In the first week of 2026, precious metal assets had obvious increases. The silver ETF rose by more than 8%, the platinum ETF rose by nearly 10%, and the comprehensive commodity ETF also increased. The scale of the largest gold ETF has exceeded $150 billion [14]. 3.3 Recent Capital Flow of US Ordinary Public - Offering Funds - In November 2025, the total amount of non - monetary public - offering funds in the US was $23.72 trillion, an increase of $0.03 trillion compared with October 2025. In November, the S&P 500 rose by 0.13%, and the scale of US domestic stock products decreased by 0.15%, with the redemption pressure easing [18]. - From December 23 to December 30, 2025, the outflows of US domestic stock funds narrowed to less than $10 billion. In the whole year of 2025, the outflows of domestic stock funds were close to $750 billion, and the outflows of mixed - allocation products also slowed down [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum has ETF position out - flows, facing selling pressure; palladium generally follows platinum but is slightly stronger [1]. - Platinum's trend strength is - 1, and palladium's trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - **Prices**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 575.00 with a -3.93% increase; gold exchange platinum was at 579.73, down -4.26%; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 2282.60, down -0.34%; London spot platinum (previous day) was 2283.00, down -0.29%. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 460.70, down -3.20%; RMB spot palladium was 429.00, down -1.15%; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1833.50, up 0.91%; London spot palladium (previous day) was 1798.00, up 1.73% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: For domestic platinum, trading volume was 53,725 kg, down 29,103 kg compared to the previous day, and positions were 40,169 kg, down 868 kg; for NYMEX platinum, trading volume was 47,220 kg, down 12,824 kg, and positions were 105,556 kg, down 1,446 kg. For domestic palladium, trading volume was 35,724 kg, down 8,514 kg, and positions were 15,166 kg. For NYMEX palladium, trading volume was 15,766 kg, down 12,634 kg, and positions were 56,465 kg, down 1,064 kg [1]. - **ETF Positions**: Platinum ETF positions (ounces, previous day) were 3,299,318, down 7,824; palladium ETF positions (ounces, previous day) were 1,175,945, up 584 [1]. - **Inventory**: Domestic platinum inventory change was not provided; NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 645,366, with a change not provided. Domestic palladium inventory change was not provided; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 211,306, with a change of 0 [1]. - **Price Spreads**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was 4.73, down 2.30 compared to the previous day; domestic platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was -3.95, down -0.55; buying domestic platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period spread was 7.09, down 0.28. The spread between domestic platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was -5.25, with a change of -21.80. RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 spread was 10.25. Domestic palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was -7.80, down -3.45; buying domestic palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period spread was 5.74, down 0.18. The spread between domestic palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 27, with a change of -23.00 [1]. - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index was 98.87, up 0.13%; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 7.00, up 0.15%; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) exchange rate was 6.99, up 0.14%; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) exchange rate was 6.91, up 0.09% [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US trade deficit in October 2025 was $29.4 billion, the smallest since June 2009 [4]. - Zelensky said the Ukraine - US security guarantee document was ready and would be finalized by the two leaders [4]. - Chinese market regulators summoned six photovoltaic industry leaders and the industry association, prohibiting agreements on production capacity and sales prices [4]. - Regarding the Federal Reserve: Milan expected about 150 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2026; Trump said he had decided on the next Federal Reserve Chairman; Bessent urged further interest rate cuts and expected Trump to announce the Fed Chairman this month [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market has experienced significant adjustments, particularly in platinum and palladium, which saw a sharp decline, reflecting short-term pressure on the precious metals market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 30, 2025, the main contracts for platinum and palladium on the Guangxi Futures Exchange hit the daily limit down, with declines of 13% each, marking them as the largest losers in the domestic futures market [1][2]. - Internationally, platinum prices fell by 13.71% and palladium by 15.76% overnight [1]. - Year-to-date, NYMEX platinum futures have increased by 140%, with a volatility of 187.91%, while palladium has risen by 82.85% with a volatility of 138.37% [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent price surge in platinum and palladium is attributed to a combination of supply constraints, awakened investment demand, and long-term growth expectations, particularly in the Chinese market [6]. - Retail investment demand for platinum has reached historical highs, driven by its perceived value compared to gold and its role in hedging against inflation [6]. - The recent sharp declines in prices are linked to regulatory measures that have increased trading costs and reduced speculative trading activity, leading to a liquidity crunch [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The global platinum market is expected to face a shortage of 26.4 tons in 2025, despite a 4% year-on-year decline in total demand [11][12]. - There are differing opinions on the outlook for platinum and palladium in 2026, with some analysts predicting strong price increases due to robust automotive demand, while others foresee potential oversupply due to changing market dynamics [13][14]. - Factors such as ongoing central bank gold purchases, persistent inflation, and low real interest rates may support precious metal prices, although industrial demand weakness poses significant downward pressure [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum shows a strong upward trend, while palladium starts to diverge from platinum with a slower upward pace. Both are considered relatively strong [3]. - The price range is expected to be 650 - 800 yuan/gram for the main platinum contract and 480 - 600 yuan/gram for the main palladium contract [4]. - This week, the prices of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showed positive weekly performance, but a divergence was observed. The weekly increase of platinum was over 25%, while palladium increased by only 3.4% after reaching a high and then falling. The overseas platinum and palladium prices had a greater upward rebound after a slight retreat before Christmas. Platinum hit a new high for the year, and palladium approached its previous high, getting close to the key level of $2,000 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: As of the close on Friday, the total open interest of platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 52,265 lots, with a trading volume of 573,824 lots this week. The total open interest of palladium was 30,775 lots, with a trading volume of 576,328 lots [8]. - **Inter - market and Spot - Futures Arbitrage**: The cross - market and spot - futures arbitrage windows for platinum and palladium continued to expand this week, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange introduced policies to prevent overheating risks [5]. - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread**: For platinum, the spread between London spot platinum and the main New York platinum contract converged to an average of -$30 per ounce, and the spread between New York continuous platinum and the main contract was slightly at a discount of -$20 per ounce. For palladium, the spread between London spot palladium and the main New York palladium contract was at a further discount of -$120 per ounce, and the spread between New York continuous palladium and the main contract also remained negative, converging to -$35 per ounce [13][16]. - **Spot - Futures Positive Arbitrage**: For platinum, the cost of buying spot and selling the 2606 contract was 10.4 yuan/gram, with a spread of 43.2 yuan/gram, leaving a profit margin of 32.8 yuan/gram. For palladium, the cost was 7.6 yuan/gram, the spread was 30.9 yuan/gram, with a profit margin of 23.3 yuan/gram [17][19]. - **Near - Far Month Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage**: For platinum, the cost of buying the 2606 contract and selling the 2610 contract was 8.6 yuan/gram, with a spread of only 2.6 yuan/gram, so the arbitrage window was not yet open. For palladium, the cost was 6.4 yuan/gram, the spread was 6.4 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window was also not open [21][23]. - **Import Parity Calculation**: For platinum, the cost of buying London platinum forward and selling the 2606 contract was 69.5 yuan/gram, with a spread of 190.1 yuan/gram, leaving a profit margin of 120.6 yuan/gram. For palladium, the cost was 53.8 yuan/gram, the spread was 118.2 yuan/gram, and the profit margin was 64.4 yuan/gram [25][27]. - **Recycling Spread**: As the absolute prices of platinum and palladium rose, the recycling discount of platinum deepened to -119 yuan/gram, while that of palladium remained at around -60 yuan/gram [29]. - **ETF Holdings**: This week, platinum ETF holdings increased by 1.67 tons (about 538,000 ounces), and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.47 tons (about 151,000 ounces). The growth rate of platinum ETF holdings showed an upward trend, while that of palladium slowed down [31]. 3.2 Fundamental Aspects (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - **Forward Discount Rate**: In the past month, both the overseas forward markets of platinum and palladium were in a discount structure. This week, the platinum discount remained at a high level, with discounts for all tenors above an annualized rate of 10%. The discount of palladium decreased, with all tenors falling within an annualized rate of 3% [37]. - **Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio**: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory slightly increased to 646,895.5 ounces (about 20.12 tons), and the ratio of registered warehouse receipts decreased to 48%. The NYMEX palladium inventory slightly increased to 198,039.61 ounces (about 6.16 tons), and the ratio of registered warehouse receipts rose above 71% [38][41]. - **China's Import - Export Data**: Since September 2025, the export volume of platinum has surged, the import volume and net inflow have diverged, and the cumulative net inflow since January 2020 has been 557.17 tons. In November, the import volume decreased to 4.58 tons, and the net inflow rate also slowed down to 3.34 tons. December data has not been released. Since 2020, palladium has had almost no export volume, being in a state of pure import, and the cumulative net inflow has been 162 tons. In November, the import volume increased to 3.02 tons, with a net inflow of 3.02 tons. December data has not been released [48]. - **London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance**: For London platinum, the supply - demand balance value fell into the negative range only on one day this week, and the absolute value was not large. For London palladium, the value fell into the negative range on two days, and the absolute value was also not large [50][52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Platinum continues to rise impulsively, and palladium is moving forward to break through the previous high. Both platinum and palladium are relatively strong. The price ranges are 500 - 580 yuan/gram for Guangbo platinum and 440 - 520 yuan/gram for Guangbo palladium. [3][4] - This week, both Guangbo platinum and palladium had strong rallies, with weekly gains of over 15%. Overseas platinum and palladium also showed strength. The rally was due to the weak US dollar and the tight spot market in London, along with high investment sentiment. It is expected that platinum and palladium will continue to rise strongly next week, with greater volatility expected for Guangbo platinum. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) - This week, the 2612 contracts of platinum and palladium were launched for trading. As of Friday's close, the total positions of Guangbo platinum were 37,675 lots with a trading volume of 548,453 lots, and the total positions of Guangbo palladium were 15,079 lots with a trading volume of 322,496 lots. The current monthly structure of platinum is PT2606 < PT2608 < PT2610 < PT2612, and that of palladium is PD2606 < PD2608 < PD2610 < PD2612. The inventory data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is not yet disclosed. [8] - This week, the spread between London spot platinum and New York platinum's active contract widened to an average of -$60 per ounce. The spread between New York platinum's continuous contract and the active contract became at a discount, with an average spread of -$60 per ounce in the past three days. The spread between London spot palladium and New York palladium's active contract was further at a discount, reaching -$100 per ounce, and the spread between New York palladium's continuous contract and the active contract also remained negative, with a spread of -$50 per ounce on Friday. [10][13] - For platinum's spot-futures positive arbitrage (buy spot and sell 2606), the cost is 8.2 yuan/gram, the spread is 21.9 yuan/gram, and there is a profit margin of 13.7 yuan/gram. For palladium's spot-futures positive arbitrage, the cost is 7.1 yuan/gram, the spread is 50.2 yuan/gram, and there is a profit margin of 43.1 yuan/gram. [16][18] - For platinum's near-far month calendar spread positive arbitrage (buy 2606 and sell 2610), the cost is 6.6 yuan/gram, the spread is only 3.4 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window is not yet open. For palladium's near-far month calendar spread positive arbitrage, the cost is 5.9 yuan/gram, the spread is 3.0 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window is not yet open. [20][22] - For the import parity calculation of platinum (buy London platinum forward and sell 2606), the cost is 57.2 yuan/gram, the spread is 110.2 yuan/gram, and there is a profit margin of 53 yuan/gram. For palladium, the cost is 51.8 yuan/gram, the spread is 97.6 yuan/gram, and there is a profit margin of 45.8 yuan/gram. [24][26] - As the absolute prices of platinum and palladium rose this week, the recycling discount of platinum slightly deepened to -98 yuan/gram, and that of palladium also slightly deepened to -53 yuan/gram. [28] - This week, the holdings of platinum ETFs increased by 1.23 tons (about 395,000 ounces), and the holdings of palladium ETFs increased by 0.92 tons (about 296,000 ounces). [30] Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - In the past month, both the overseas forward markets of platinum and palladium have been in a contango structure. In the past week, the contango of platinum has shown an upward trend again, with all tenors' contango remaining above 10% annualized. The contango depth of palladium has decreased, with all tenors' contango falling within 3% annualized. [36] - This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory slightly increased to 624,700 ounces, about 19.43 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants fell below 50%. The NYMEX palladium inventory slightly decreased to 189,100 ounces, about 5.9 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants slightly rebounded to 70.3%. [37][40] - Since 2020, palladium has had almost no export volume and has been in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 162 tons. In October, the import volume was 2.98 tons, and the net inflow was 2.96 tons. In November, the data is not yet available. Since September 2025, the export volume of platinum has increased sharply, and the import volume and net inflow have diverged. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow of platinum has been 547.98 tons. In October, the import volume was 10.15 tons, and the net inflow was 6.43 tons. In November, the data is not yet available. [47] - A negative supply - demand balance indicates that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, and the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices have a stronger willingness to buy. The supply - demand balance of London platinum fixing was negative for four days this week, indicating a tight spot market for London platinum. The supply - demand balance of London palladium fixing was negative on Thursday and Friday. [48][49]