1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) officially came into effect on January 1, 2026. Although the tariff is levied on importers by the EU, it will be passed on to exporting companies, impacting China's steel and aluminum product exports [2][5][76][77]. - High default values for determining embedded emissions in goods will weaken the export competitiveness of China's steel and aluminum products. The default carbon intensity values for most China steel and aluminum products are significantly higher than the CBAM benchmark values, leading to an increase in carbon tariffs [3][6]. - From the perspective of total exports, the impact of CBAM on the steel and aluminum industries in China is not yet significant. However, for specific enterprises with a large proportion of exports to the EU, the formal implementation of CBAM will lead to a significant increase in carbon tariff costs. Enterprises need to optimize carbon emission management and use financial instruments to hedge risks [4][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 CBAM will be implemented on January 1, 2026 - **Historical Evolution of CBAM**: CBAM is part of the "Fit for 55" package announced by the EU in 2021. In 2023, the EU passed legislation for CBAM and initiated the transition period from October 1, 2023, to December 31, 2025. In 2025, the EU revised CBAM, including setting an import volume exemption threshold, revising deadlines, reducing the number of certificates required, and planning to publish annual default carbon prices starting from 2027 [12][13][14]. - **Impact on China's Steel and Aluminum Exports to the EU**: China's exports of CBAM products to the EU rank fifth in volume but first in implicit carbon emissions. The carbon emission costs will be passed on to Chinese export enterprises, impacting the export of steel and aluminum products [22][24]. 3.2 High default values will weaken the export competitiveness of China's steel and aluminum products - **Core of CBAM**: The core of CBAM is to define carbon intensity values. The EU proposes two methods: using actual carbon emission intensity (which needs third - party verification) and using default values published by the EU (which will result in higher carbon tariffs) [32][33][34]. - **China's Higher Default Value of Carbon Intensity**: The EU has set significantly higher default carbon emission intensity values for Chinese products than the CBAM benchmark values, with annual stepwise increases. China's steel and aluminum products exported to the EU face higher default carbon emission intensities in 2026 [39][40]. - **Underestimated Carbon Emission Cost**: The carbon emission costs paid for Chinese export products may have been underestimated. The EU may set a default carbon price for China significantly lower than the domestic carbon emission allowance price [41]. 3.3 The cost of exporting steel and aluminum products from China to the EU will rise sharply - **Carbon Tariff on Steel Products**: Chinese steel product exports to the EU face higher default carbon emission intensity values. If the carbon costs already paid by Chinese companies are not considered and the default values are used, Chinese steel products will face a carbon tariff ranging from CNY389 - CNY3,917 per tonne [42][46]. - **Carbon Tariff on Aluminum Products**: Default carbon intensities for Chinese aluminium products significantly exceed CBAM benchmarks. If the default values are used, Chinese aluminum and aluminum products will face a carbon tariff of CNY1399 - CNY3413 per tonne [53][57]. 3.4 Addressing the Challenges Posed by CBAM for Steel and Aluminum Exporters - **Limited Impact on Total Exports**: The implementation of CBAM has a relatively limited impact on China's total steel and aluminum exports. However, it has a more significant impact on the cost of Chinese steel and aluminum companies exporting to the EU [65][66]. - **Conduct CBAM Carbon Verification**: Some steel and aluminum enterprises in China have actual carbon emission intensities lower than the default values set by the EU. Companies should actively use actual carbon emission data and avoid using default values [67][68][69]. - **Reasonable Use of EUA Futures Hedging**: In the second half of 2025, EU carbon allowance prices rose significantly. The EUA supply and demand have been tight in the long term, which may drive carbon prices upward. Exporting companies can hedge through the EUA futures market to avoid the risk of rising carbon tariff costs [70][73].

Core Insights - Azerbaijan's non-oil and gas product exports reached $3.3 billion from January to November 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [1] Export Performance - Agricultural product exports amounted to $890 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 27.1% [1] - Industrial agricultural product exports totaled $290 million, with a modest year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] Notable Growth Areas - Exports of fruits and vegetables increased by 28.6% [1] - Sugar exports surged by 52.4% [1] - Exports of aluminum and aluminum products grew by 16.8% [1] - Chemical product exports rose by 13.9% [1] - Cotton yarn exports experienced a growth of 13.3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Azerbaijan's non-oil and gas product exports reached $2.6 billion from January to September 2025, marking a 7.7% year-on-year increase [1] Export Performance - Food exports amounted to $840 million, reflecting a 20.5% year-on-year growth [1] - Sugar exports surged by 46.9% [1] - Fruit and vegetable exports increased by 31.3% [1] - Chemical product exports rose by 22% [1] - Cotton yarn exports grew by 12.5% [1] - Tea exports saw a 3.3% increase [1] - Aluminum and aluminum products exports grew by 2.6% [1] - Black metals and their products exports increased by 1% [1] Agricultural Sector - Agricultural product exports totaled $670 million, with a year-on-year growth of 27.8% [1] - Combined agricultural and agro-industrial product exports grew by 19.2%, reaching $900 million [1]

Core Insights - Thailand's exports under the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are projected to grow significantly in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 29.1%, contrasting sharply with a decline of 5.68% in the same period of 2024 [1] Group 1: Export Performance - The strong export performance is attributed to the recovery of export values and indicates Thailand's potential to further expand its exports of CBAM goods to the EU [1] - The CBAM measures cover six categories of goods: steel and steel products, aluminum and aluminum products, cement, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen [1] Group 2: Opportunities and Challenges - The transition to CBAM presents both challenges and opportunities for Thailand, particularly in enhancing product quality and achieving sustainable development [1] - Adapting to international standards through CBAM can create competitive advantages for Thailand in international trade, opening doors to new opportunities in a global market increasingly focused on sustainability [1] Group 3: Future Implications - Starting January 1, 2029, the full implementation of CBAM will require importers to purchase and submit "CBAM certificates" based on the carbon emissions of their goods, which may lead to higher verification costs for Thai companies [1]