Group 1 - Tianshan Aluminum experienced a decline of 5.06% on September 18, with a stock price of 10.88 CNY per share and a trading volume of 580 million CNY, resulting in a turnover rate of 1.27% and a total market capitalization of 50.613 billion CNY [1] - Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. was established on November 3, 1997, and listed on December 31, 2010. The company is primarily engaged in the production and sales of primary aluminum, aluminum deep processing products, prebaked anodes, high-purity aluminum, and alumina [1] - The revenue composition of Tianshan Aluminum includes 65.26% from the sale of self-produced aluminum ingots, 24.20% from alumina sales, 6.89% from aluminum foil and aluminum foil raw materials, 2.10% from high-purity aluminum sales, and 1.55% from other sources [1] Group 2 - According to data, one fund under Zheshang Securities Asset Management has Tianshan Aluminum as a top holding. The Zheshang Zhijiang Phoenix ETF (512190) held 287,300 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 4.07% of the fund's net value, ranking as the seventh largest holding [2] - The Zheshang Zhijiang Phoenix ETF (512190) was established on August 5, 2019, with a latest scale of 58.662 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 29.36%, ranking 1718 out of 4222 in its category; the one-year return is 56.51%, ranking 1842 out of 3804; and since inception, the return is 140.58% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit showing modest growth, indicating a resilient operational environment despite some fluctuations in quarterly results [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.084 billion yuan, up 0.51% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 7.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.026 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 24.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.02% [2]. Production and Sales - The company maintained stable production levels, with an electrolytic aluminum output of 585,400 tons, remaining flat year-on-year. The alumina output increased by 9.76% to 1,199,900 tons. The self-generated electricity was approximately 6.602 billion kWh, and the anode carbon output was 272,600 tons, up 1.38% year-on-year [2]. - The sales of key products were robust, with external sales of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increasing by approximately 2% and 7% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Cost Control and Integration - The company achieved significant cost control through integrated development in the aluminum industry chain, with the average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum at approximately 20,250 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 2.8% year-on-year, and alumina at approximately 3,700 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 6% year-on-year [3]. - The integrated cost of electrolytic aluminum remained stable at 13,900 yuan/ton. The company effectively managed cost increases in anode carbon due to regional advantages and price adjustments [3]. - The company is progressing well with a green low-carbon efficiency enhancement project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, utilizing advanced energy-saving technologies, with the first batch of aluminum ingots expected by December 2025 [3]. Investment Outlook - The company's strategy of "resource self-sufficiency + technological leadership" is expected to provide strong support for stable growth in future performance. Earnings per share are projected to be 1.03 yuan and 1.21 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 7.36 and 6.24 based on the closing price on August 29 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [1] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum achieved stable performance with a revenue of 15.328 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing an 11.19% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.084 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.51% year-on-year [4] - The company has a strong integrated supply chain advantage, which helps maintain stable production and performance amid high volatility in aluminum prices and costs. In the first half of 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 585,400 tons, remaining stable year-on-year, while sales increased by approximately 2% [4] - The company is expanding its upstream resource capabilities and electrolytic aluminum smelting capacity, with a green low-carbon transformation project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity expected to be completed in about 10 months, increasing its capacity from 1.2 million tons to 1.4 million tons [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.59. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.20% [4] - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 20,250 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 2.8% year-on-year, while the average selling price of self-produced alumina was about 3,700 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 6% year-on-year [4] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 4.569 billion yuan, 5.857 billion yuan, and 6.495 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.98, 1.26, and 1.40 yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum's comprehensive competitiveness has been released, significantly enhancing its profitability, as evidenced by its financial performance in the first quarter of 2025 and the year 2024 [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tianshan Aluminum achieved an operating income of approximately 79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 16% [1][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.58 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 47% [1][3]. - For the full year 2024, the company reported an operating income of 280.89 billion yuan, a decrease of about 3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 45 billion yuan, doubling compared to the previous year [2][4]. Production and Pricing - Tianshan Aluminum's main products include electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with a notable increase in production and sales volumes due to favorable market conditions in 2024 [2][4]. - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 19,800 yuan per ton, up about 6% year-on-year, while the average selling price of self-produced alumina was around 4,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 40% increase [5]. - The company completed an electrolytic aluminum production of 1.1759 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 1%, and alumina production of 2.2789 million tons, up 7.55% [4]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - Tianshan Aluminum's operating cash flow net inflow increased to 52.20 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 33.29% [2][9]. - The company's total operating costs for 2024 were 233.54 billion yuan, a reduction of approximately 33.70 billion yuan compared to 2023 [6]. - The company's asset-liability ratio has been decreasing for four consecutive years, reaching 52.74% at the end of 2024, down 5.04 percentage points from the previous year [2][9]. Vertical Integration and Competitive Advantage - Tianshan Aluminum has established a vertically integrated industrial chain, enhancing its cost competitiveness and resilience against market price fluctuations [7][8]. - The company has invested in advanced production technologies, particularly in high-purity aluminum, which has improved efficiency and reduced production costs [8]. - The integration of upstream and downstream operations allows Tianshan Aluminum to maintain a strong competitive position within the industry [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" [6] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 7.925 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9%, with a gross margin of 20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23% [1] - The company plans to build an integrated aluminum industry park in Indonesia, which will include bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, deep processing, and supporting industries, enhancing its competitive edge in the global aluminum market [2] - Tianshan Aluminum aims to achieve a 100% self-sufficiency rate in bauxite supply by expanding its resource acquisition capabilities and upstream industry layout [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.8 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.0 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.3, 6.3, and 5.8 [4] Financial Summary - In 2025, Tianshan Aluminum is projected to have a revenue of 31.264 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.3% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.791 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5% [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.03 yuan in 2025, with a net asset return rate of 16.2% [5]