累库预期

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累库预期较为明确 预计近期塑料震荡下行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-11 03:11
周五夜盘,塑料期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫,最低下探至6998.00元。截止收盘,塑料主力合约报 7004.00元,跌幅0.68%。 塑料期货主力小幅下跌0.68%,对于后市行情如何,相关机构该如何评价? 机构 核心观点 冠通期货 预计近期塑料震荡下行 瑞达期货(002961) 节后L2601预计偏弱震荡 假期受欧佩克同意小幅增产、美国政府停摆引发经济增长担忧、俄乌冲突再度升温影响,国际油价下跌 反弹,较节前窄幅下降。PE供需方面,10月多套装置重启,新增停车产能偏少,产能利用率预计环比 上升。同时新产能有望落地,国内聚乙烯供应或将出现较大幅度提升。下游棚膜需求逐渐进入年内高 位,或带动PE下游开工率达到下半年峰值。库存受供应端增量影响,累库预期较为明确。综合考虑, 节后L2601预计偏弱震荡,区间预计在7100-7220附近。 冠通期货:预计近期塑料震荡下行 10月9日,新增中化泉州HDPE等检修装置,塑料开工率下跌至89%左右,目前开工率处于中性偏高水 平。PE下游开工率环比上升1.21个百分点至44.13%,农膜逐步进入旺季,农膜订单和农膜原料库存加速 增加,包装膜订单小幅减少,只是整体PE下游开工率仍 ...
南华期货聚酯产业周报(20250921)-20250921
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-21 12:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report MEG - The short - term downward space of ethylene glycol (MEG) is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4200 - 4400. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options with an exercise price of 4150 [1][3][5]. PX - TA - In the short term, the absolute price of the PX - TA industry chain is under pressure, but the compression space is limited. It is advisable to consider cautious long positions or expand the TA - SC spread. For the processing fee, it is recommended to expand the TA01 contract processing fee below 270 [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs MEG Fundamental Situation - Supply side: The total load remains stable at 74.93% (+0.02%), with coal - based load rising to 79.38% (+2.69%). The port inventory is expected to increase by about 10,000 tons. The coal - based marginal profit is under significant pressure [2]. - Demand side: The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%). The terminal demand is lackluster, and the speculative sentiment is weak. The bottle - chip processing fee has improved [2]. Key Data - Price: Brent crude oil dropped from 66.45 to 66.05 dollars/barrel, and MEG in East China decreased from 4378 to 4352 yuan/ton [8]. - Spread and profit: The PX - N spread decreased from 232.8 to 227.3 dollars/ton, and the MEG coal - based profit dropped from 39 to - 64 yuan/ton [8][10]. - Inventory: The MEG port inventory increased from 45.9 to 46.5 tons [9]. Supply and Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2026, the supply and demand of MEG show certain fluctuations, with production, import, and demand changing over time [12]. Maintenance Situation - Many domestic and foreign MEG devices are in maintenance, such as Xinjiang Tianye Phase III, which was restarted and then shut down again, and two sets of Shell's devices in the United States are under maintenance [1][15]. PX - TA Fundamental Situation - Supply side: The PX load is adjusted down to 86.3% (-1.5%), and the PTA load remains stable at 76.8%. The PX is expected to accumulate inventory by about 100,000 tons in September [6]. - Demand side: The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%), and the terminal demand is weak [7]. Key Data - Price: Brent crude oil dropped from 66.45 to 66.05 dollars/barrel, and PTA in East China decreased from 4565 to 4555 yuan/ton [10]. - Spread and profit: The PX - N spread decreased from 232.8 to 227.3 dollars/ton, and the PTA domestic processing fee increased from 115 to 151 yuan/ton [10]. - Inventory: The PTA social inventory increased from 208 to 210 tons [10]. Supply and Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2026, the supply and demand of PX - TA change over time, with production, import, and demand showing different trends [13]. Maintenance Situation - Many PX and PTA devices are under maintenance, such as Fuhai Dahua's 700,000 - ton PX line and Zhongtai Petrochemical's PTA device [6][17][18]. Polyester Fundamental Situation - The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%), and the terminal demand is weak. The inventory of filament and staple fiber has slightly increased [2][7]. Key Data - Price: POY decreased from 6650 to 6625 yuan/ton, and FDY dropped from 7025 to 6875 yuan/ton [11]. - Spread and profit: The POY processing fee increased from 185 to 207 yuan/ton, and the FDY processing fee decreased from 110 to 7 yuan/ton [11]. - Inventory: The POY inventory days increased from 19.3 to 21.7 days, and the FDY inventory days increased from 21.4 to 22.7 days [11]. Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio of polyester fiber filament and staple fiber shows certain fluctuations [112]. Export and Import - The export and import volumes of polyester products show different trends over time [116][119]. Profit - The processing profit of polyester products such as filament and staple fiber shows certain seasonal changes [121]. Downstream of Polyester Weaving - The weaving start - up rate remains stable, and the inventory of grey cloth is high. The order volume is insufficient [2][7]. Spinning Mill - The start - up rate of the spinning mill shows certain fluctuations, and the inventory of yarn is at a certain level [137][139]. Terminal Macro - The production and sales data of downstream products such as cloth, yarn, and soft drinks show certain seasonal changes [149][150][151]. Spinning and Clothing Export - The export volume and value index of textile and clothing show certain fluctuations [153][155][157]. Global Spinning and Clothing - The import, inventory, and export data of textile and clothing in countries such as the United States, Vietnam, and India show different trends [162][163][165].
海外装置检修增加 预计乙二醇期货下方空间较有限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-18 05:53
News Summary Core Viewpoint - The current situation of ethylene glycol in East China shows an increase in port inventory, while production and capacity utilization have decreased, indicating a complex market dynamic with potential implications for pricing and supply [1][2][3]. Group 1: Inventory and Production Data - As of September 15, the port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China reached 395,600 tons, an increase of 32,400 tons compared to the previous Thursday and an increase of 8,800 tons compared to the previous Monday [1]. - The weekly production of ethylene glycol in China was 404,600 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons or 1.33% from the previous week [1]. - The domestic ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate was 66.55%, down by 0.90% week-on-week [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - Newhu Futures indicated that the main contradiction in the ethylene glycol market lies between the expectation of inventory accumulation and the reality of low inventory levels, with no significant accumulation pressure expected in September and October [2]. - Southwest Futures noted that while domestic ethylene glycol production is high and new facilities are coming online, increased overseas maintenance and reduced imports have led to a significant decrease in inventory levels, suggesting potential pressure on prices [3]. - Despite the low inventory situation, Newhu Futures believes that the price of ethylene glycol has strong support around 4,200 [2].
8-9月暂无明显累库压力 预计乙二醇下行空间有限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-02 07:09
Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for ethylene glycol shows a mixed performance, with a slight decline in prices, while demand remains optimistic due to seasonal consumption expectations [1][2]. Supply Side - Ethylene glycol overall operating load is at 75.13%, an increase of 1.97% compared to the previous period [1]. - The operating load for ethylene glycol produced via oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation is at 77.74%, a decrease of 3.51% from the previous period [1]. Demand Side - Demand is improving, with expectations for a consumption peak in September and October, as downstream polyester and terminal weaving operations show signs of recovery [1]. - The weighted profit for downstream polyester is 19.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.4 yuan/ton [1]. - Polyester's weekly capacity utilization rate is at 86.7%, up by 0.1 percentage points, which is near the neutral position over the past five years but higher than the same period last year [1]. - Weekly polyester production is at 152.2 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.2 million tons, and is at a high level compared to the same period last year [1]. Inventory Situation - As of August 28, the total port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area is 413,200 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous Monday and a decrease of 84,600 tons from the previous Thursday [1]. - The expected total arrival of ethylene glycol in East China next week is 101,700 tons, with a reduction in delivery pace leading to a decrease in inventory [1]. Market Outlook - The main contradiction in the ethylene glycol market is between the expectation of inventory accumulation and the reality of low inventory levels [2]. - There is no significant accumulation pressure observed in August and September, and the recent decline in arrival volumes is at a low level, suggesting limited downward space for ethylene glycol prices [2]. - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities at lower price points [2].
原油、燃料油日报:内外溢价收窄,原油震荡压力渐显-20250812
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 09:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market shows a weak and volatile pattern. Supply - side factors indicate that the incident at Russian refineries is only a short - term disturbance, while South American production increases and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries strengthen the expectation of a loose supply. Demand - side factors are suppressed by the weakening of China's refining demand, the peak of global seasonal demand, and the slowdown of bio - fuel substitution. Without unexpected production cuts, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 11, the SC main contract slightly declined by 0.08% to 489.4 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent rebounded by 1.03% and 0.59% respectively. The premium of domestic futures relative to foreign markets narrowed, with the SC - Brent spread narrowing from 1.87 to 1.43 dollars/barrel (a 23.53% decline) and the SC - WTI spread dropping from 4.84 to 4.14 dollars/barrel (a 14.46% decline). The SC near - month contract strengthened, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened to 9.8 yuan/barrel (a 13.95% increase) [2]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may lead to a local supply contraction, but strong South American production and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries (such as Iran and Venezuela) weaken the geopolitical premium, and medium - term supply pressure still exists [3]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: In early August, China's spot orders for gasoline and diesel decreased by 22.87% month - on - month, and transaction prices declined. UBS expects global oil demand to peak in August and then decline, and the delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy reduces the elasticity of diesel substitution demand in the next half - year [4]. - **Inventory - side Analysis**: UBS warns that future inventories may increase, and combined with the recent oil price correction and the spot discount structure, it shows that the market's expectation of inventory accumulation is taking shape. The decline in China's refinery procurement intention further intensifies inventory pressure [5]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: The current crude oil market is in a weak and volatile pattern. Without unexpected production cuts by OPEC+ to hedge, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, SC futures price slightly decreased, WTI and Brent futures prices increased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Some spreads narrowed, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while the Cushing inventory increased. The U.S. refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, the prices of some fuel oil futures and spot products changed. Some spreads widened, and some Platts prices decreased [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: UBS expects oil prices to fall below previous expectations due to strong South American oil production, the supply resilience of sanctioned countries, and the expectation of future inventory increases. UBS also expects OPEC+ to suspend its production adjustment unless there is a larger and continuous unexpected supply disruption [10]. - **Demand**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may affect supply. Global oil demand is expected to peak in August and then decline. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is delayed, and China's gasoline and diesel orders decreased in early August, indicating weakening demand [11]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the crude oil and fuel oil industries, including price, production, inventory, and operating rate data, with data sources such as WIND, EIA, and iFinD [12][14][16]
累库预期仍旧较强 沪铝盘面短期上涨驱动有限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-07 07:58
Market Review - On August 6, the Shanghai aluminum futures contract 2509 opened higher and closed at 20,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan or 0.44% from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - In the week ending July 2025, Brazil exported a total of 611,900 tons of bauxite and aluminum concentrate, compared to 444,100 tons in August of the previous year. The average daily shipment increased by 37.77% to 26,600 tons per day from 19,300 tons per day last August [2] - As of August 4, SMM reported a domestic aluminum ingot social inventory of 564,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The increase in smelting and casting volume, combined with the seasonal consumption slowdown, continues to support strong inventory accumulation expectations [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyuan Futures noted that on the supply side, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with a decrease in aluminum water ratio and an increase in casting volume, leading to more market circulation supply. The ongoing inventory accumulation is expected to suppress aluminum prices. On the demand side, the downstream market remains in a seasonal lull, with spot purchases being made as needed, and the current spot premium showing limited upward momentum. Despite the decline in aluminum prices, there is no significant improvement in orders for processing plants [4] - Hualian Futures highlighted that the market is currently observing the impact of the rainy season on transportation in Guinea, with supply remaining ample. The production and operating rates of alumina continue to rise, and new capacity is being put into production, leading to ongoing expectations of market oversupply. Inventory is increasing, and while warehouse receipts have slightly risen, they remain low, with spot prices stable. The Shanghai aluminum market is constrained by the seasonal lull and high prices, with slight inventory increases and limited short-term upward momentum. However, the supply side has very limited production increase potential, providing some price support. The domestic "anti-involution" policy remains stable alongside long-term goals of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth." Although short-term upward drivers for Shanghai aluminum are limited, the mid-term peak season in September and October supports a bullish outlook. It is recommended to maintain a primary long position, with a reference support level for Shanghai aluminum 2509 at 20,200 yuan/ton [4]
原油震荡整理,受装置意外停?影响芳烃表现略强
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 08:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Specific varieties have different ratings: crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PTA, and urea are rated as "weakening oscillations"; PX, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, PP, plastic, PVC, and methanol are rated as "oscillations"; pure benzene is rated as "oscillating strongly"; and caustic soda is rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][7][8][11][13][14][17][19][22][24][26][27][28][30][31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price continues to oscillate and consolidate. The reduction in crude oil production in the Iraqi region provides some support, but the increase in refined oil inventories in the United States and the expected inventory build - up in the future may lead to weakening oscillations in oil prices if geopolitical disturbances subside. For most energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment lead to an overall trend of weakening oscillations or oscillations. For example, asphalt prices are overvalued, high - sulfur fuel oil prices face downward pressure, and the cost - end support for LPG weakens [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. With the expected inventory build - up in the future, if geopolitical disturbances weaken, oil prices will gradually face pressure and are expected to weaken and oscillate [7] - **LPG**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3][11] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely overvalued stage, and the asphalt price difference is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face significant downward pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and the price is expected to weaken and oscillate [8][9][11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken, facing factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production areas show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is relatively stable. The futures price oscillates in the short term [24][26] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment slows down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals. In the short term, it may face pressure to operate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly start - up rate declines, and the downstream start - up rate also decreases. It continues to oscillate and consolidate [17][18] - **PX**: There is insufficient driving force, and it oscillates and consolidates [13] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and it consolidates. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis weakens, and there are no major contradictions in the industrial chain. The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [19][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: Production cuts support the processing fee, and the absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate [22] - **PP**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [28] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [27] - **Pure Benzene**: The near - end long positions in styrene leave the market, and pure benzene follows to decline. In the medium term, the pattern from July to August is acceptable [14] - **Styrene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price drops [16][17] - **PVC**: Market sentiment warms up again, and it mainly oscillates. The fundamental pressure still exists [30] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price reaches the peak, and it oscillates and operates. The 09 futures contract oscillates, facing downward pressure and support [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.96 with a change of - 0.01, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 38 with a change of - 10 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of 0, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [34] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also corresponding values and changes in the inter - variety spread. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 298 with a change of - 4 [35]
能源化策略:原油等待欧美累库,化?的压?逐步增加
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 10:47
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for the energy and chemical industry, with specific varieties having different trends such as oscillation, oscillation weakly, oscillation strongly, etc. [1][3][4] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, and the market is closely watching whether US inventories will accumulate effectively. The supply pressure of the chemical industry is increasing, and the demand has shown weakness since June, with an increasing possibility of the industry gradually weakening. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Trends of Crude Oil and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. In the context of a relatively certain inventory accumulation expectation, oil prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly after the weakening of geopolitical disturbances. [8] - **Chemicals**: Supply has substantially increased, while demand has shown weakness since June. The probability of the chemical industry gradually weakening is increasing. For example, the supply pressure of olefins will suppress industrial profits, and the polyester chain may see a decline in direct demand for raw materials. [2] 2. Analysis of Each Variety - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental pattern of looseness remains unchanged, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly. [3][13] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - estimated stage. [8][9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. [3][9][10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken. [3][13] - **Methanol**: The domestic operating load is low, and methanol oscillates. [3][22][23] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment has slowed down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals, with short - term pressure on urea. [3][23][24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The resumption of device production is less than expected, and ethylene glycol will continue the low - inventory pattern. [3][17][18] - **PX**: The US sanctions against Russia are less than expected, and PX oscillates and consolidates. [15] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and PTA consolidates. [15] - **Short - Fiber**: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable. [18][20] - **Bottle Chip**: The basis weakens slightly, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. [20][21] - **PP**: As oil prices fall, PP oscillates. [3][26] - **Plastic**: As oil prices decline, plastic oscillates and weakens. [3][25] - **Pure Benzene**: Due to the lack of confidence of styrene bulls and the decline of crude oil, pure benzene falls back. [15] - **Styrene**: The risk of cornering declines, and styrene falls. [15][16][17] - **PVC**: The sentiment cools down in stages, and PVC runs weakly. [3][28] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has reached the peak, and caustic soda oscillates. [3][28][29] 3. Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.9 with a change of - 0.03, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 48 with a change of 22. [30] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of - 1, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [31] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 294 with a change of 47. [32] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: It involves the monitoring of basis and spreads of various chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text. [33][45][57]
饲料养殖产业日报-20250522
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 01:18
Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the short - and long - term due to supply - demand imbalances. Egg prices are also under pressure because of high supply. The oil market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the second quarter before rebounding in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is expected to be low - level volatile, while the medium - and long - term trend is expected to be stable and upward. Corn prices are expected to be stable and upward in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Category Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), in Henan 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), and in Guangdong 15 - 15.5 yuan/kg (stable) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the supply pressure is accumulating. Although the short - term supply pressure is released, the long - term supply is expected to increase from May to September 2024. The demand is weak, and the supply - demand game intensifies [1]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the pig price fluctuates frequently. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline. The forward price is under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the resistance level. The resistance and support levels for the 07 contract are 13700 - 13800 and 13000 - 13100 respectively, and for the 09 contract are 14000 - 14200 and 13300 - 13400 respectively. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.9 yuan/jin (down 0.2 yuan/jin), and in Beijing 3.3 yuan/jin (stable) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term demand may increase, but supply is continuously accumulating. The high supply situation is not alleviated [2]. - **Price Trend**: The short - term price is under pressure. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for the 06 contract. Adopt a short - selling strategy for the 08 and 09 contracts when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the resistance level of 3750 - 3800 for the 08 contract [2]. Oil Palm Oil - **International Market**: On May 21, the Malaysian palm oil 08 contract closed at 3896 ringgit/ton (down 0.36%). The supply and demand are both weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and the 08 contract is expected to trade in the range of 3800 - 4000 [2][3][4]. - **Domestic Market**: From May, a large amount of palm oil will arrive in China. The inventory has increased to 35.97 tons and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [4]. Soybean Oil - **International Market**: The US biodiesel policy is negative for soybean oil. The short - term trend of US soybeans is expected to be volatile, and the 07 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1040 - 1050 [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 1 million tons per month. The soybean oil inventory has started to increase to 65.63 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **International Market**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The short - term trend of ICE rapeseed is expected to be volatile and upward [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level of 87 tons. The supply pressure is high in the short - term. If the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Overall Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be volatile in the short - term, trading in the ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Adopt a short - selling strategy with caution at high prices. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil for the 09 contracts [7]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the US soybean 07 contract closed at 1062.75 cents/bushel (up 9.75 cents). The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2934 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2890 yuan/ton [7]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the domestic spot price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to be strong. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to be strong [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions for the 09 contract in the short - term. Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips after mid - June [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton (stable) [8]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the price is supported. In the long - term, the price has an upward drive, but the upside space is limited [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy at the lower edge of the range for the 07 contract. Pay attention to the positive spread strategy between the 7 - 9 contracts [8]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Variety | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two Days Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active (Cents/Bushel) | 1,061.75 | 1,054.25 | 7.50 | | Soybean Meal Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,934 | 2,889 | 45.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal (Yuan/Ton) | 2,880 | 2,880 | 0.00 | | CBOT Corn Active (Cents/Bushel) | 460.00 | 454.50 | 5.50 | | Corn Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,324 | 2,312 | 12.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active (Cents/Pound) | 49.75 | 49.57 | 0.18 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil (Yuan/Ton) | 8,140 | 8,230 | - 90.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active (Ringgit/Ton) | 3,896 | 3,910 | - 14.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 8,600 | 8,650 | - 50.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active (Canadian Dollar/Ton) | 719.60 | 704.40 | 15.20 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 9,450 | 9,400 | 50.00 | | Egg Main Contract (Yuan/500 Kilograms) | 2,959 | 2,964 | - 5.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot (Yuan/Jin) | 3.00 | 3.05 | - 0.05 | | Pig Futures Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 13,650 | 13,690 | - 40.00 | | Henan Pig Spot (Yuan/Kilogram) | 14.60 | 14.60 | 0.00 | [9]