Core Viewpoint - In 2024, China's battery exports are projected to increase in volume but decrease in value, reflecting a "volume increase and price decrease" trend driven by factors such as falling lithium carbonate prices and structural overcapacity [11][20]. Summary by Category Export Volume and Value - The total export volume of various battery types from China in 2024 is expected to reach 37.895 billion units, up from 33.280 billion units in 2023, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.87% [1][2]. - The total export value for 2024 is projected at $66.979 billion, down from $70.711 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.28% [1][4]. Battery Types and Performance - Lithium-ion batteries dominate the export market, accounting for 91.3% of the total export value, while lead-acid batteries represent 4.4%, zinc-manganese/alkaline batteries 2.9%, and nickel-hydrogen/nickel-cadmium batteries 0.6% [1][11]. - Specific battery types show varied performance: - Lithium-ion battery export value decreased by 5.97% in 2024, while export volume increased by 8.1% [4][11]. - Lead-acid battery exports have remained stable due to recovering global automotive production, although growth is expected to slow down [11][19]. - Alkaline manganese batteries have shown consistent growth, while zinc-manganese batteries have seen a decline in exports over the past few years, with a slight rebound in 2024 [12][19]. Major Export Markets - The United States is the largest market for Chinese battery exports in 2024, with an export value of $16.01 billion, accounting for 23.9% of total exports [19]. - Germany follows as the second-largest market with an export value of $10.56 billion, representing 15.8% of total exports [19]. - South Korea ranks third with an export value of $3.848 billion, making up 5.7% of the total [19]. Regulatory and Market Challenges - The implementation of new EU battery regulations and ongoing tariffs on Chinese lithium batteries in the U.S. are increasing export costs and compliance difficulties for Chinese battery manufacturers [19][20]. - The reduction of export tax rebates from 13% to 9% starting December 1, 2024, further adds to the challenges faced by the industry [19]. Future Outlook - Despite the pressures from global economic conditions and trade frictions, the Chinese battery industry is expected to maintain resilience and explore new growth opportunities, particularly in regions like the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa [19][20].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 29 日 江海证券研究发展部 分析师：王金帅 执业证书编号：S1410525090001 | 当前价格: | 30.88元 | | --- | --- | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 101.30 | | A 股股本(百万股) | 101.30 | | B/H 股股本(百万股) | -/- | | A 股流通比例(%) | 79.40 | | 12 个月最高/最低(元) | 38.87/19.03 | | 第一大股东 | 潘文硕 | | 第一大股东持股比例(%) | 13.33 | | 上证综指/沪深 300 | 3988.22/4691.97 | % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 11.95 19.00 22.90 绝对收益 6.89 18.50 38.17 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与北证 50 相比 相关研究报告 1. 江海证券-公司点评报告-德瑞锂电 -833523：国内外业务均保持稳健增长， 募投产能有望年内投产 – 2025.09.01 2. 江海 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in performance, with a revenue increase of 11.87% year-on-year in H1 2025, reaching 254 million yuan, and a net profit increase of 17.54%, amounting to 73.99 million yuan [7] - The company is gradually expanding its domestic market presence, with domestic revenue showing a slight increase, and plans to increase production capacity in response to strong demand for lithium manganese cylindrical batteries [7] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 173 million, 203 million, and 236 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 12 times [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 346.38 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.79% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 53.30 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.77% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is estimated at 0.53 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 52.42 times [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 27.58 yuan, with a market capitalization of 2,793.89 million yuan [5] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 4.38 times and a one-year price range of 11.02 to 32.30 yuan [5] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 597.95 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.99% [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 173.11 million yuan, with a growth rate of 14.97% compared to 2024 [1] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable around 42% over the forecast period [8]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.961 billion CNY, an increase of 14.83% compared to the previous year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -252.46 million CNY, a decline of 685.72% year-on-year [3][5] Market Drivers - The demand for batteries is driven by carbon neutrality goals, leading to growth in energy storage, consumer, and power batteries [3] - Technological advancements have led to breakthroughs in battery platforms, including high energy density technology (>400Wh/kg) and low-temperature technology (-40℃) [3][4] Industry Trends - The global energy storage battery market is expected to see explosive growth, with a shipment scale of 314.7 GWh in 2024, a 60% increase year-on-year [6] - The consumer battery market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.24% from 2024 to 2032 [6] - The power battery market is anticipated to reach 894.4 GWh in installed capacity in 2024, a 27.2% increase year-on-year [6] Sector Performance - The lithium primary battery business generated revenue of 299.52 million CNY in 2024, a growth of 9.91% year-on-year [4] - The electric vehicle market is expanding, with sales of pure electric heavy trucks increasing by 139.4% to over 82,700 units [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the decline in lithium carbonate prices in 2024 will lead to a recovery in profitability, with expectations for stable growth in 2025 [1][7] - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 5.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 150.56 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 182.47% [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 346.38 million yuan - 2024A: 519.99 million yuan - 2025E: 597.95 million yuan - 2026E: 717.55 million yuan - 2027E: 861.05 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at: - 2024: 50.12% - 2025: 14.99% - 2026: 20.00% - 2027: 20.00% [1][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023A: 53.30 million yuan - 2024A: 150.56 million yuan - 2025E: 173.11 million yuan - 2026E: 202.70 million yuan - 2027E: 236.02 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2024: 182.47% - 2025: 14.97% - 2026: 17.09% - 2027: 16.44% [1][8] Valuation Metrics - The latest diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) projections are: - 2023A: 0.53 yuan - 2024A: 1.49 yuan - 2025E: 1.71 yuan - 2026E: 2.00 yuan - 2027E: 2.33 yuan - The P/E (Price to Earnings) ratios based on the latest diluted EPS are: - 2024: 17.43 - 2025: 15.16 - 2026: 12.94 - 2027: 11.12 [1][8]

4月24日，鹏辉能源连续披露2024年及2025年一季度业绩情况，两段时期公司营收均实现增长。 具体来看， 2024年， 鹏辉能源实现营收79.61亿元，同比增长14.83% ； 净利润-2.52亿元；扣非净利润-3.22亿元。 2025年一季度， 鹏辉能源实现营收16.9亿元， 同比增长5.83% ； 净利润-4498.31万元； 扣非净利润-8030.16万元。 据鹏辉能源2024年年报显示，目前其业绩来源主要为 锂离子电池产品，广泛应用于消费、储能、动力等多个领域。去年锂离子电池营收 73.63亿元，同比增加15.11%，占营收比重为92.50%。 | | | | | | 单位:元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024 年 | | 2023 年 | | 同比增减 | | | 金额 | 占营业收入比重 | 金额 | 占营业收入比重 | | | 营业收入合计 | 7,960,507,262.1 | 100% | 6,932,475,479.7 | 100% | 14. 83% | | | 3 | | 5 | | | | 分行业 | | | | | ...