| 序号 | 国家和地区 | | 出口额(亿美元) | | | 出口数量(万个) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年 | 2024 年 | 同比增 | 2025年 | 2024 年 | 同比增 | | | | 1-7 月 | 1-7 月 | 长% | 1-7 月 | 1-7 月 | 长% | | 1 | 德国 | 77.53 | 58. 86 | 31.71% | 15162. 72 | 16310. 22 | -7.04% | | 2 | 美国 | 74. 18 | 73. 89 | 0. 39% | 11822. 22 | 9233.53 | 28.04% | | 3 | 越南 | 22. 63 | 21. 12 | 7. 14% | 62102. 26 | 44147.61 | 40.67% | | র্ব | 荷兰 | 20. 81 | 12. 91 | 61.20% | 2007.21 | 1521.60 | 31.91% | | 5 | 韩国 | 18. 39 | 21. 53 | -14. 58% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dual dynamics of the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market, highlighting the slowdown in domestic growth alongside strong export expansion, which is reshaping the competitive landscape and growth pathways for the battery industry [3][5]. Domestic Market Trends - In July, the production of new energy passenger vehicles reached approximately 1.15 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 22%, but a month-on-month decline of 3%. Retail sales were about 990,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 12% but a significant month-on-month drop of 11% [5][6]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic market has remained stagnant between 50% and 54% for nearly a year, failing to surpass the 55% mark [5]. - The retail market for pure electric vehicles grew by about 25% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid sales saw a slight decline of 0.2%, and range-extended models dropped significantly by 11% [5][6]. - The market share of domestic brands in new energy vehicles stabilized at 70%, with a penetration rate of 75%, while luxury brands had a penetration rate of 30% and mainstream joint ventures only 7% [5][6]. Price Competition and Cost Pressures - The average price reduction for new energy vehicles in July was approximately 17,000 yuan, representing an 11.1% decrease, indicating ongoing price wars that are transferring cost pressures to battery manufacturers [6][7]. - The average price of plug-in hybrid models dropped by about 33,000 yuan, with a reduction rate of 14%, which is higher than that of pure electric vehicles [6][7]. Battery Supply Chain Dynamics - In July, lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 81% of the domestic battery installations, with a year-on-year growth of 49%, while the installation of ternary batteries decreased by 4% [7]. - The market concentration of domestic power battery manufacturers continued to decline, with the top two companies' market share dropping by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Export Growth and Global Market Trends - In July, exports of new energy passenger vehicles reached 210,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 120%, accounting for 45% of total passenger vehicle exports [9][10]. - Exports of pure electric vehicles constituted 65% of new energy exports, with A00 and A0 class small pure electric vehicles' share rising from 26% to 43% [9][10]. - BYD's exports reached 80,000 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 160%, particularly strong in the European market, where sales grew by 470% [10][11]. - The overall export volume of domestic power batteries increased by approximately 48%, surpassing domestic sales for the first time [10]. High-End Market Opportunities - Despite price competition in the low-end market, the high-end market (vehicles priced above 250,000 yuan) is emerging as a new battleground, with several brands launching new models in this segment [11][12]. - The global production of ternary materials reached a historical high in July, indicating a strong demand for high-performance batteries [11][12]. Future Outlook - The transition of automotive consumption subsidies from direct grants to loan interest subsidies signals a shift in policy direction, with a focus on service consumption areas such as battery testing and maintenance [12]. - As some hybrid models begin to retract in the domestic market, automakers must find ways to expand their advantages over traditional fuel vehicles rather than competing within the pure electric segment [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the battery industry, including Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, and others, with target prices indicating potential upside [1][18]. Core Insights - The battery industry is experiencing significant growth, with China's power battery installation volume in April 2025 increasing by 52.8% year-on-year, reaching 54.1 GWh [2][3]. - The report highlights that Chinese companies have increased their share in the overseas power battery market to 42% in Q1 2025, with Ningde Times leading the market [2][3]. - The report anticipates a surge in short-term exports of energy storage batteries from China due to the recent reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In April 2025, China's total battery production and sales reached 118.2 GWh and 118.1 GWh, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 49.0% and 73.5% [2]. - The production-to-sales ratio is close to 1, indicating a destocking trend [2]. Export Trends - In April 2025, China's power and other battery exports totaled 22.3 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 64.2%, with power battery exports up by 53.6% [2][10]. - Energy storage batteries accounted for 35.2% of total exports, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline [2]. Company Developments - Ningde Times launched upgraded versions of its batteries, including the "Second Generation Shenxing Supercharging Battery" and sodium batteries, enhancing performance metrics significantly [2]. - Yiwei Lithium Energy introduced eight new commercial vehicle battery products, aiming for mass production by 2026 [2]. Market Concentration - The report notes a slight increase in market concentration, with the top three and five companies holding 72.3% and 81.8% of the market share, respectively [2][17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the battery industry, including Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, and others, with target prices indicating significant potential upside [1][18]. Core Insights - The battery industry is experiencing robust supply and demand, with a notable increase in the production and installation of power batteries. In Q1 2025, the total production and sales of power and other batteries in China reached 326.3 GWh and 285.8 GWh, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 74.9% and 73.7% [2][18]. - The cumulative installation of power batteries in Q1 2025 was 130.2 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.8%. In March alone, the installation volume reached 56.6 GWh, with significant month-on-month growth [2][18]. - The report highlights the impact of tariffs on the export of energy storage batteries to the U.S., indicating potential short-term fluctuations. In 2024, China's lithium-ion battery exports to the U.S. amounted to $15.315 billion, with energy storage batteries being a major product [2][18]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - In Q1 2025, China's total battery production and sales reached 326.3 GWh and 285.8 GWh, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 74.9% and 73.7% [2][18]. - The power battery installation volume in March 2025 was 56.6 GWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 62.3% [2][18]. Market Dynamics - The market concentration for power battery installations slightly decreased, with the top three and five companies holding 71.7% and 80.6% market shares, respectively [2][18]. - Ningde Times' market share in power battery installations decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 42.4% in March 2025 [2][18]. New Product Developments - Several companies, including BYD and Yiwei Lithium Energy, have launched new battery products aimed at electric two-wheelers and power tools, showcasing advancements in power density and charging capabilities [2][18]. Strategic Collaborations - Ningde Times has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with NIO to support the development of NIO's battery swap network, indicating a proactive approach to market expansion [2][18]. Export Trends - The report notes that energy storage batteries are significantly affected by recent tariff increases, with expectations of shared burdens between Chinese storage companies and U.S. end-users in the short term [2][18].