请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 中国银河证券|CGS 负极销量逆行业高速增长，成本优势显著 尚太科技（001301.SZ）首次覆盖报告 分析师:曾韬、段尚昌 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 公司点评报告 · 电力设备及新能源行业 负极销量逆行业高速增长,成本优势显著 2025 年半年报业绩点评&首次覆盖报告 2025 年 8 月 21 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入/百万元 | 5229.25 | 7318.81 | 9747.45 | 11705.07 | | 同比/% | 19.10 | 39.96 | 33.18 | 20.08 | | 归母净利润/百万元 | 838.33 | 1034.75 | 1329.30 | 1680.64 | | 同比/% | 15.97 | 23.43 | 28.47 | 26.43 | | EPS/元 | 3.21 | 3.97 | 5.10 | 6.44 | | PE | 1 ...

Group 1: Industry Events - The 2025 (15th) High-Performance Lithium Battery Annual Conference will be held from November 18-20, 2025, at JW Marriott Hotel in Shenzhen [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) has established a new energy technology company in Beijing with a registered capital of 20 million RMB, focusing on emerging energy technology research and sales of electric vehicle battery swap facilities [3] - Shenzhen Xinjie Energy Technology Co., Ltd. has completed a multi-hundred million RMB Series A financing round, with funds allocated for production line expansion, team building, core technology iteration, and market application expansion [5] - Haike New Energy has received approval for trial production of its high-end battery materials project, which aims to develop and supply new raw materials for the new energy battery system [7] - Shandong Jianqing New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is investing in a lithium battery anode material project with a planned annual production capacity of 110,000 tons, including high-purity graphite and expanded graphite [9] - Xianhui Technology has secured a 702 million RMB equipment order from CATL, which is expected to positively impact the company's performance in 2025-2026 [11]

Macro Economic Group - In July, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the US increased by 73,000, the lowest level in nine months, with a downward revision of the previous two months' figures totaling a decrease of 258,000 jobs [2][4] - The unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, matching expectations, while the labor force participation rate was 62.2%, slightly down from the previous month [2][4] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year in July, slightly above expectations, indicating ongoing wage pressures in the labor market [2][4] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Xiangfenghua, a company specializing in lithium battery anode materials, reported a revenue of 688 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, with a net loss of 2.95 million yuan, down 107.7% [12] - The decline in revenue is attributed to oversupply in the market and intensified competition, leading to a drop in product prices [12] - The overall capacity utilization in the lithium battery anode materials industry is around 60%, indicating severe structural overcapacity and heightened competition [12] Automotive Industry Group - Major automotive companies such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen reported significant declines in their half-year performance, with Mercedes-Benz's sales revenue dropping by 8.6% to 72.6 billion euros [13] - The performance decline is attributed to US tariffs and fierce competition in the Chinese market, highlighting a shift in market dynamics where Chinese automakers are increasingly competitive [13] - New energy vehicle manufacturers like XPeng and Leap Motor reported substantial sales growth, with XPeng delivering 36,717 vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 229% [14] Consumer Electronics Group - XGIMI Technology expects a significant improvement in its half-year performance, with projected revenue of 1.626 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.63%, and a net profit of 88.66 million yuan, up 2062.33% [16] - The growth is driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements, alongside successful product launches and expansion into overseas markets [16] - The company is also diversifying its business by entering the vehicle-mounted and commercial sectors, supporting its growth strategy [16]

Group 1: Industry Events - The 2025 High-Performance Lithium Battery Annual Conference will be held from November 18-20, 2025, at JW Marriott Hotel in Shenzhen, celebrating its 15th anniversary and featuring the Golden Ball Award ceremony [1] Group 2: Company Financials - CATL reported a total revenue of 178.886 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.27%, with a net profit of 30.485 billion yuan, up 33.33% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 25.02%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points [2] Group 3: Company Developments - XINWANDA has submitted an application for the issuance of H-shares and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3][4] - HUI NENG Technology launched a fourth-generation innovative technology called "Superfluidized Inorganic Solid-State Electrolyte," which has an ionic conductivity of 57 mS/cm at 25°C, 5-6 times higher than conventional liquid organic electrolytes and sulfide solid-state electrolytes, enabling rapid charging from 5% to 60%-80% in just 4-6 minutes [5][7] - A project for the annual production of 200,000 tons of lithium battery anode materials has been approved in Shanxi, which includes various production facilities and aims to produce high-end anode materials and carbon additives [8][9] - BASF signed a strategic cooperation agreement with CATL to collaborate in the field of advanced and innovative cathode active materials [10][11] - A battery recycling project with an investment of 50 million yuan is set to be established in Ganzhou, aiming to produce significant quantities of mixed powder and aluminum and copper powders [12][13][14]

Battery - Fudi Technology's semi-solid state battery has a cost that is only 5%-10% higher than liquid batteries, demonstrating good economic viability and market competitiveness, with GWh-level shipments already achieved [3] - Prit's first batch of square 314Ah semi-solid state batteries has been successfully delivered, making it the first domestic company to transition this technology from laboratory to mass production, positively impacting its semi-annual performance [6] - In the first half of 2025, China's new energy heavy truck sales are expected to reach approximately 79,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 185%, driving the installation of heavy truck power batteries to about 31.7GWh, a year-on-year growth of 230% [7] Materials - Oke Technology signed a 176 million yuan contract for two wet-process diaphragm production lines, which accounts for 40.51% of the company's audited revenue for the past year [11] - A new lithium battery anode material project with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons has been accepted for environmental impact assessment in Guizhou, indicating ongoing technological upgrades [13] - Sanfu New Materials' 3D composite copper foil is currently in the sample testing phase for downstream battery manufacturers, with applications in high-end consumer electronics and high-end new energy vehicle power batteries [14] - CATL's subsidiary in Qinghai has commenced construction on a pole piece project with a total investment of 5 billion yuan, aiming to establish a complete production process chain [16]

Group 1 - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to meet funding needs, expand operations, and enhance competitiveness [2][3][9] - The convertible bonds will be listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and will be offered to unspecified investors, with existing shareholders having priority [3][4][5] - The total amount to be raised through this issuance will not exceed RMB 173,400 million, which will be used for a project to produce 200,000 tons of lithium battery anode materials [11][15][25] Group 2 - The company has demonstrated a sound organizational structure and has met the requirements for issuing convertible bonds under relevant laws [9][24] - The average distributable profit over the last three years is sufficient to cover the interest on the bonds, with figures of RMB 128,945.45 million, RMB 72,290.50 million, and RMB 83,832.71 million [10][24] - The company has a reasonable asset-liability structure and normal cash flow, with debt ratios of 41.41%, 23.64%, and 32.38% [10][11] Group 3 - The company has maintained profitability over the last three years, with net profits of RMB 128,144.33 million, RMB 71,327.50 million, and RMB 80,855.43 million [11][25] - The issuance plan has been carefully considered by the board and is expected to benefit the company and all shareholders [27] - The company has established measures to mitigate the dilution of immediate returns for existing shareholders [28]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid development and expansion of the new energy materials industry in Qionglai, Sichuan, emphasizing its complete industrial chain covering lithium battery anodes, cathodes, separators, and equipment manufacturing, which significantly supports the lithium battery production capacity in Chengdu [1][4]. Industry Development - Qionglai has formed a complete industrial chain for lithium battery materials, with anode and separator materials supporting over 50% of Chengdu's lithium battery production capacity [1][4]. - In 2024, the output value of the new energy materials industry in Qionglai is expected to reach 19.27 billion yuan, representing an 18.2% growth [1]. - The Qionglai new energy industry cluster has been recognized as an important node for transitioning from "resource output" to "technology output" in the western region of China [1]. Project Highlights - The construction of Hongli New Energy (Chengdu) Co., Ltd. was completed in just 86 days, with the first batch of products launched on May 2, 2023, aiming for full production by August [3]. - Qionglai's industrial park has attracted over 320 enterprises, including major players like Putailai and Rongjie Lithium Industry, creating a comprehensive coverage of power batteries, energy storage, and consumer batteries [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Qionglai is breaking industry barriers by integrating "new energy +" initiatives, focusing on new energy storage, low-altitude economy, and advanced materials [5]. - The region is expanding its cooperation radius by establishing a "R&D + production" cross-regional model with Tianfu New Area, facilitating technology support and innovation collaboration [6]. Policy Support - Qionglai has introduced a series of innovative policies to support high-quality industrial development, including financial incentives for R&D and support for high-tech enterprises [6]. - The establishment of the Tianlai Fund aims to provide capital support for strategic emerging industries and future industries in the Qionglai-Tianfu cooperation area [7]. - A talent policy system named "Phoenix Qilai" has been launched to attract high-level talents, offering various support measures to ensure their well-being and promote business growth [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce imposed tariffs on Chinese graphite, which is critical for the U.S. electric vehicle industry, as China accounts for 70% of global production and exports to the U.S. were valued at $1.5 billion in 2025 [1] - The tariffs are expected to increase battery costs by $7 per kilowatt-hour, leading to a 20% reduction in subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act [1] - U.S. domestic graphite producers are unable to meet the demand, with their annual production being less than a fraction of China's daily output [3][5] Group 2 - The tariffs have caused a surge in Canadian graphite mining stocks by 51%, while U.S. electric vehicle manufacturers like Tesla saw their stock prices decline [1] - The U.S. is facing backlash from allies like the EU and Mexico, with Mexico retaliating by imposing tariffs on U.S. corn [3] - The pharmaceutical industry is also affected, with potential 200% tariffs on imported drugs leading to increased prices for American consumers [3] Group 3 - China's strategy includes zero tariffs for 53 African countries, enhancing trade relations and allowing African nations to develop infrastructure using funds from exports to China [7][9] - The Chinese graphite industry has advanced technologies that reduce costs by 40% compared to U.S. methods, attracting orders from Europe and Southeast Asia [8] - The U.S. tariffs are seen as a self-defeating strategy that may harm American consumers and businesses while benefiting other countries [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Anhui Chuangjiang Technology New Materials Co., Ltd., has approved a change in registered capital and amendments to its articles of association during its board meeting and subsequent shareholder meeting [1]. Group 1: Company Changes - The registered capital has been reduced from 1,508,548,229 yuan to 1,324,246,265 yuan [1]. - Other business registration items in the company's business license have not changed apart from the registered capital [1]. Group 2: Business Operations - The company is involved in various sectors including the research, production, and sales of thermal equipment, carbon composite materials, powder metallurgy materials, lithium battery anode materials, and 3D printing materials [1]. - The company also engages in technology consulting, research and development, and import-export activities related to its business [1].

Core Viewpoint - Shanshan Co., Ltd. (600884.SH), a leading anode material manufacturer, is expected to see a significant improvement in its performance for the first half of the year, with projected net profits ranging from 160 million to 240 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 810.41% to 1265.61% [1] Financial Performance - In the previous year, the company reported total revenue of 18.68 billion yuan, a decline of 2.05% year-on-year, and a net loss of 367 million yuan, with profits decreasing by 147.97% [2] - The company’s net profit for the first quarter of this year was approximately 30 million yuan, indicating that the second quarter's net profit is estimated to be between 130 million and 210 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 330% [6] Corporate Restructuring - The controlling shareholder, Shanshan Group, is undergoing bankruptcy reorganization, with the court officially accepting the reorganization on February 25. The latest development includes a public recruitment announcement for reorganization investors on June 9, marking a critical phase in the process [3] - The majority of Shanshan Group's and its subsidiary Pengze Trading's shares in Shanshan Co. are currently pledged and frozen, which may lead to changes in control, although the company asserts that its business operations remain unaffected [3] Market Position and Product Development - Shanshan Co. is the first domestic company engaged in the research and production of artificial graphite anode materials for lithium-ion batteries, with its main business segments being anode materials and polarizers. In the previous year, these segments contributed 43.88% and 55.26% to the company's revenue, respectively [3] - The company maintains the top market share in artificial anode materials, with a projected market share increase of 6 percentage points to 92% by the first half of 2025 [4] Cost Management and Production Efficiency - The significant growth in the company's performance is attributed to multiple factors, including a decline in raw material prices, which has reduced production costs and supported profit margins [5][6] - The company has implemented cost-reduction measures since last year, particularly in its anode materials business, which has shown notable improvements [7] - The production cost of anode materials is heavily influenced by electricity costs, which account for 60% of the graphite production costs. The company has strategically located its production facilities in regions with lower electricity costs to enhance cost efficiency [8] Future Prospects - The market for silicon-based anode materials is expanding rapidly alongside the development of semi-solid and solid-state batteries. Shanshan Co. has developed a silicon-carbon anode deposition technology that enhances material stability and performance [9] - The company’s subsidiary, BASF Shanshan, which focuses on the research and production of lithium-ion battery cathode materials, is expected to impact Shanshan Co.'s financials negatively, with projected losses of 150 million to 170 million yuan [10] Stock Performance - As of July 15, Shanshan Co.'s stock price was 9.13 yuan, down 1.3%, with a market capitalization of 20.537 billion yuan [11]