印尼硬刚美协议，底气何在 文┃小夏 编辑┃叙言 最近印尼干了件挺硬气的事，直接回绝了美国递过来的关键矿产协议。 这协议看着是合作，实则藏着"毒丸条款"，要求印尼开发镍、铝土矿这些战略资源时，得把"某些国 家"排除在外。 明眼人都能看出来，这说的就是中国，美国想靠这招对冲中国在稀土领域的优势。 换以前不少国家可能就忍了，但印尼偏不。 这底气哪儿来的？答案就俩字，中国。 不是说印尼偏向中国，而是中国给的实在好处，美国替代不了。 中企在印尼金属冶炼和加工领域的投入，已经落地和规划的就超150亿美元。 印尼的镍产业链，从矿山到产业园区，很多都是中企牵头建起来的。 要是听美国的，跟中国断了协作，印尼的工业化进程相当于直接踩刹车。 更何况，中国连续多年都是印尼最大的贸易伙伴，两边的贸易往来接近1500亿美元。 雅万高铁就是最好的例子，在中方帮助下，印尼有了东南亚第一条高速铁路。 如此看来，印尼宁肯得罪美国，也要跟中国做生意，真不是选边站队，而是主权国家基于自身利益的务 实选择。 中印尼协作，是共赢不是捆绑 可能有人会说，印尼这是被中国"绑住了"？个人觉得完全不是。 印尼这边刚把美国的协议扔回去，美国国内又闹起了降息的幺蛾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied until 2030, driven by a surge in supply from Indonesia and other major producers [1][2] Supply Dynamics - Indonesia's nickel production has increased from 30% of global supply five years ago to 70% currently, with no signs of slowing down [1] - Macquarie forecasts that Indonesia's nickel supply will grow by approximately 16% this year and next, extending into non-nickel pig iron products [1] - Indonesia's nickel production is projected to reach 2.4 to 2.5 million tons this year, with potential capacity increasing to 4 million tons by 2030 [1] - The government of Indonesia is tightening regulations on nickel mining, reviewing environmental permits, and has already seized some mining assets [1][2] Market Conditions - Despite a reduction of 500,000 tons in nickel supply from other regions since 2022, global supply is still expected to grow [2] - Nickel prices have fallen to a low point, with the London Metal Exchange price hitting $15,000 per ton, and many industry players facing negative cash flow at this price [2] - The demand for nickel is shifting towards traditional stainless steel applications as battery usage slows down [2][3] Demand Insights - The stainless steel industry accounts for approximately 65% of nickel demand, showing strong growth due to cheaper nickel prices [4] - In Europe and North America, the impact on the global primary nickel market is limited, with their share being less than 10% [4] - About 55%-60% of nickel production in Europe and North America uses recycled materials, compared to only 15% in China and Indonesia [4]

印尼国企部（SOEs）副部长Kartika Wirjoatmodjo正推动制定相关法规，鼓励印尼电动汽车制造商从目 前广泛使用的锂电池转向镍电池。 他在周二出席雅加达举行的2025国际电池峰会后表示："我们正在推动针对印尼电动汽车工厂（包括汽 车制造商）的法规，以实现从锂电池向镍电池的转型。" Wirjoatmodjo解释称，SOEs已参与电动汽车电池项目。"目前在印尼运营的许多工厂仍使用锂电池。我 们希望其他部委能提供激励措施，推动印尼向镍电池转型。" 在此次活动中，Wirjoatmodjo指出，全球电池需求预计到2040年将达到8800吉瓦时（GWh），供应链将 成为满足这一需求的关键因素。 他指出，印尼可借此契机通过确保原材料供应、提升供应链效率以及建立战略合作伙伴关系和协作来把 握这一机遇。 ...