智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，站在12月底时点展望1月，投资者对下阶段债市走势研判较 为集中：一致预期维持中短利率债偏好，操作层面整体偏防守。财政政策的力度与节奏和政府债券供给 压力成为投资者关注的核心要点。 (4)财政发力及政府债发行成为投资者最为关注的核心问题，货币政策及资金面仍然是债券投资者重点 关注的问题； (5)投资者对中短利率债的偏好上升。 1月债券市场行情会如何演绎？调查结果显示，投资者对1月债市未形成单一方向的强势共识，预期呈现 "谨慎乐观，结构主导"的格局。短端利率因更受益于宽松的流动性环境而获得相对更强的看好；长端利 率则因可能面临基本面修复、供给压力或政策预期博弈而表现相对谨慎，导致"短强长弱"成为最主流的 市场预期。 当前债市应如何操作？12月多数投资者在实操层面偏中性，持币观望，待回调至预期点位后再加仓和保 持仓位基本稳定仍然是主流观点；可以开始加仓者占比小幅下降，由11月调研结果的14%减少至11%。 反映出市场在向防守侧倾斜。还有部分投资者判断偏谨慎，降久期控风险的投资者占比较11月调研结果 有所上升。 1月债市定价的主线逻辑最可能是什么？债市投资者的关注焦点转向"财政 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Standing at the end of September and looking forward to October, investors' judgments on the bond market in the next stage are quite divided. There is a consensus on maintaining a preference for medium - short - term and long - term interest - rate bonds, and the proportion of bullish sentiment has increased. The funding situation, the equity market, and institutional behavior have become the core concerns of investors, and their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has marginally weakened [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of September, there are four mainstream expectations for the bond market in October: 1) The expected range of the upper and lower limits of long - term treasury bond yields is relatively concentrated, and long - term treasury bond yields still show a state of "capped on the upper end and floored on the lower end"; 2) The bullish sentiment in the bond market has slightly increased, and the proportion of those who think it's time to increase positions has significantly risen, while expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are divided; 3) Investors' overall expectations for the economy in September have changed. Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market are the core issues that investors focus on, and the game of institutional behavior has returned to the focus of investors; 4) Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, while their preference for convertible bonds has declined [2][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Investor Bullish Sentiment Rises - A bond market survey questionnaire "What to Expect from the Bond Market in October?" was released on September 25, 2025. By 00:00 on September 28, 204 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional investors and individual investors such as bank self - operations, securities firm self - operations, and public funds/special accounts [9]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields 10 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 44% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.70% - 1.75% (inclusive), 30% think it will be in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive), 14% think it will fall below 1.70%, and about 12% think it will exceed 1.80%. Regarding the upper limit, 49% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.85% - 1.90% (inclusive), about 29% think it will be below 1.85%, and 11% each think it will be in the range of 1.90% - 1.95% (inclusive) and above 1.95%. Current investors' expectations for the rise of 10 - year treasury bond interest rates have gradually increased compared with the August survey results, but they remain cautious about the judgment of breaking through key points [11]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 34% of investors each think it will fall in the ranges of 1.95% - 2.00% (inclusive) and 2.00% - 2.05% (inclusive), about 19% think it will be above 2.05%, and only 13% think it will be below 1.95%. Regarding the upper limit, about 35% of investors think it will fall in the range of 2.10% - 2.15% (inclusive), 33% think it will be in the range of 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive), and about 19% think it will break through 2.20%. Since September, the 30 - year treasury bond yield has continued to rise, and investors are quite cautious about the expectation that it may further increase [13]. 3.3 Expectations for the Economic Situation in September - 54% of investors think the economy in September will show a situation of "both supply and demand weakening", 29% think it will be "demand weakening, supply strengthening", 9% think it will be "both supply and demand strengthening", and 8% think it will be "demand strengthening, supply weakening". In September, 83% of investors think the demand side has generally weakened, and only 38% expect the supply side to strengthen, indicating that the market is relatively cautious about the expectation of supply expansion [14][17]. 3.4 Expectations for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - Regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts, 36% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 27% think the next cut may occur in October, 23% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Regarding interest rate cuts, 53% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 19% think the next cut may occur in October, 13% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Compared with the August survey results, investors' expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts have slightly increased, while their expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased [18]. 3.5 Impact of the Fed's 25bp Interest Rate Cut on the Domestic Bond Market - 64% of investors think the Fed's 25bp interest rate cut has limited impact on the domestic bond market, and the domestic fiscal and supply rhythm still need to be considered. 13% think it is beneficial for the repair of the Sino - US interest rate spread and can ease the pressure on RMB depreciation. 12% think the interest rate cut signal strengthens the downward movement of the global interest rate center, which is beneficial for the long - duration trend in the domestic market. Another 12% think the external disturbance is difficult to determine. Most investors think the interest rate cut is not a significant surprise, and its impact on the domestic bond market is relatively limited [22]. 3.6 Expectations for the Bond Market in October - 32% of investors think the bond market in October will strengthen overall, among which 20% expect the yield curve to be bull - flattened (a slight decrease compared with the August survey results), and 12% expect the yield curve to be bull - steepened. 29% of investors think the bond market will be weak. 20% of investors think the bond market may show a differentiation between the short - end and long - end, favoring a strong short - end and a weak long - end, and 6% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. Investors' expectations for the bond market are divided, and there is no obvious trend [24]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Suggestions - 31% of investors think they should hold cash and wait for the market to correct to the expected level before increasing positions. 29% of investors think it's time to start increasing positions. 16% of investors think they should reduce the duration to control risks. 10% of investors think they should appropriately reduce positions, and about 15% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable. Most investors' actual operations in October are relatively neutral, and the proportion of those who think it's time to start increasing positions has significantly increased [27]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Types in October - Compared with the August survey results, investors' preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, medium - short - term interest - rate bonds, and high - grade urban investment bonds has increased, while their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has significantly decreased. Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds. Their preference for local government bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and secondary capital bonds has slightly decreased [29]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in October - Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market have become the core concerns of bond investors. Investors' attention to the game of institutional behavior has significantly increased. Their attention to fundamental data such as real estate and PMI remains basically the same, and their attention to the disturbance of US tariff policies has significantly decreased [32].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Standing at the end of July and looking forward to August, investors' sentiment for going long in the bond market has declined. The consensus has shifted from going long on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds to medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds. The money market and the equity market have become the core concerns of investors, and their preference for medium - and low - grade urban investment bonds and local government bonds has weakened marginally [1]. 3. Summary by Questionnaire Items Q2: 10 - year Treasury Yield Upper and Lower Limits in August - Regarding the lower limit, 45% of investors think it will likely fall within 1.60% - 1.65% (inclusive), 18% believe it will break below 1.60% (mostly in the 1.55% - 1.60% range), and about 37% think it will exceed 1.65%. - Regarding the upper limit, 51% of investors think it will likely fall within 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive), about 14% think it will exceed 1.80%, and only 4% think it will be below 1.70%. - Conclusion: Investors' expectation of a rise in the 10 - year Treasury yield is increasing, but they are still cautious about it breaking key points. The bond market may face some emotional shocks in August, but the macro - fundamentals are in a weak recovery, the money market is stable, and the expectation of loose monetary policy remains unchanged [10]. Q3: 30 - year Treasury Yield Upper and Lower Limits in August - Regarding the lower limit, over 73% of investors think it will fall within 1.80% - 1.90% (inclusive), 18% think it will break above 1.90%, and only 8% think it will be below 1.80%. - Regarding the upper limit, about 56% of investors think it will fall within 1.95% - 2.00% (inclusive), 24% think it will be in the 2.00% - 2.05% range, and about 9% think it will break above 2.05%. - Conclusion: Since July, the 30 - year Treasury yield has been rising, reaching a maximum of 1.998%. Investors' expectation of a further increase in the 30 - year Treasury yield is not high [14]. Q4: Economic Trend in the Third Quarter - 31% of investors are relatively optimistic about the economic trend in the third quarter, believing it will show "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month growth exceeding the seasonal level". - 24% think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month growth in line with the seasonal level". - 34% think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month growth weaker than the seasonal level". - 31% are relatively pessimistic, believing it will be "both year - on - year and month - on - month decline". - Conclusion: External factors may have some impact on the macro - economy in the third quarter, but the overall expectation of investors has not changed much, with the proportion of pessimistic expectations rising from 30% to 31% [15]. Q5: Next Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut and Interest Rate Cut Timing - Regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts, 43% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 47% think the next cut may be in the third quarter, and 9% think it will be postponed to the fourth quarter. - Regarding interest rate cuts, 41% of investors think there will be no cuts this year, 41% think the next cut may be in the fourth quarter, and 19% think it will be in August or the third quarter. - Conclusion: In July, investors' expectations for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts have gradually weakened. Most investors tend to postpone potential cuts to a more distant policy window rather than August [17]. Q6: Impact of the Recent "Anti - Involution" Policy on the Bond Market - 71% of investors think the "anti - involution" policy will be negative for the bond market. - 43% think it will strengthen the stock - bond seesaw effect and suppress the bond market through capital diversion. - 28% think it will push up industrial product prices, intensify inflation expectations, and be negative for the bond market. - 17% think the policy's effect is limited, and the bond market is still dominated by fundamentals. - Conclusion: The "anti - involution" policy has some impact on the macro - economy and the bond market, but no obvious trend is seen. Most investors think it will be negative for the bond market, but some think the impact is short - term [18]. Q7: Bond Market Trend in August - 28% of investors think the bond market will strengthen in August, with 13% expecting a bullish steepening of the yield curve and 15% expecting a bullish flattening. - 31% of investors think the bond market will be weak. - 26% of investors think the bond market will show a divergence between the short - end and the long - end, with the short - end strong and the long - end weak. - 2% of investors think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. - Conclusion: Investors' consensus has shifted to going long on short - term bonds. The proportion of those thinking the bond market will strengthen is significantly lower than in June. Investors' judgments on the bond market are relatively evenly distributed [22]. Q8: Current Bond Market Operation - 33% of investors think they should hold cash and wait to add positions after the market corrects to the expected level. - 20% of investors think they can start adding positions now. - 19% of investors think they should reduce the duration to control risks. - 14% of investors think they should take appropriate profits and reduce positions. - 14% of investors think they should keep the positions basically stable. - Conclusion: Most investors are neutral in practice. Holding cash and waiting is the mainstream view. The proportion of those thinking they can start adding positions has increased, indicating potential buying power in the bond market [23]. Q9: Most Favored Bond Types in August - Compared with June, investors' preference for ultra - long - term and long - term interest - rate bonds has decreased, while their preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased significantly. - The popularity of local government bonds and medium - and low - grade urban investment bonds has decreased. - Conclusion: Investors' consensus has shifted from long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds to medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds, and their preference for negotiable certificates of deposit has also increased [29]. Q10: Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in August - Monetary policy, the money market, and the performance of the equity market have become the core concerns of bond investors. - Investors' attention to fiscal policy and government bond issuance remains the same, while their attention to fundamentals and institutional behavior games has decreased. - Conclusion: The central bank's monetary policy stance and the money market trend are still the factors that investors focus on. This month, investors' attention to the equity market has increased significantly, while their attention to institutional behavior games and fiscal policy has decreased [30].