证券研究报告 2025年08月26日 行业报告： 行业专题研究 市场即底气：国产大飞机的产业突围与广阔空间 作者： 分析师 王泽宇 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523070002 分析师 赵博轩 SAC执业证书编号：S1110525020002 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 国防军工 核心观点：大飞机产业链自主可控迫在眉睫，市场空间广阔 ➢ 中国商用飞机全球市占率在20%以上；C919产能持续扩充 需求方面，据中国商飞预测，预计到2042年全球客机总规模将达到48455架（约为2022年的2.2倍），中国客机将达到9969架（占比21%）， 成为全球最大单一航空市场。此外，据中国商飞披露，预计未来20年（2023-2042年）我国将接收超9000架新机、对应价值1.4万亿美元。 产能方面，2025年3月，中国商飞提出C919新的产能规划，预计到2027年产能将达到150架/年，2029年产能200架/年，产能持续扩充。此 外，C919大飞机在东南亚等地执飞计划提速，并在欧洲适航进展积极。我们认为，伴随C919批产交付进程的不断加快， ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Hangfa Technology Industry Overview - Hangfa Technology operates in the aerospace engine component manufacturing sector, with a leading position in blades, casings, and sheet metal parts [2][3] - The Chinese aerospace engine industry is undergoing a transition, with a pressing need for domestically controlled large aircraft due to technological gaps with the U.S. [2][9] Company Performance - The company reported a profit growth rate of 43% for 2024, with a turnaround in net profit in Q1 2025 [2][7] - Both domestic and foreign trade businesses are experiencing strong growth, with foreign trade maintaining high profit margins [2][7] - The company’s internal trade business has shown signs of recovery, indicating significant future growth potential [2][7] Research and Development - Hangfa Technology invests approximately 3% of its revenue in R&D to enhance core competitiveness in both military and civilian markets [2][8] Market Potential - The domestic market is expected to be a significant source of long-term growth, driven by equipment upgrades, aftermarket maintenance, and developments in the civilian sector [2][9] - The military aerospace engine component market in China is projected to reach 800 billion yuan in the next five years, indicating substantial growth opportunities for the company [10] Foreign Trade Importance - Foreign trade is crucial for the company, with over 20 years of collaboration with major international aerospace companies like Boeing and Rolls-Royce [2][11] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 21% in foreign trade from 2002 to 2019, but entering the foreign outsourcing production system requires strict certification [11] Shareholder Structure - Hangfa Technology's controlling shareholder is Hangfa Chengfa, with a relatively dispersed ownership structure [4][5] Competitive Landscape - Hangfa Technology's subsidiary, Hangfa Ha Axis, holds a significant position in the Chinese aerospace bearing market, with a compound growth rate of 21.4% since 2013 [12] - The company is actively positioning itself in the commercial aerospace engine sector, which has immense potential [4][13] Global Market Insights - The global commercial aerospace engine market is expected to exceed 13 trillion yuan over the next 20 years, with the Chinese market estimated at around 2.6 trillion yuan [14] - The commercial aerospace engine market is highly concentrated, with six companies dominating 97% of the market share [15] Future Development - The domestic commercial aerospace engine market is characterized by a significant supply-demand mismatch, creating opportunities for domestic manufacturers [20] - Hangfa Technology is strategically developing production bases to capitalize on the growing demand for domestically produced commercial aerospace engines [20]