智通财经7月14日电，锦江航运(601083.SH)发布2025年半年度业绩预告，预计归属于母公司所有者的净 利润为7.8亿元-8.1亿元，同比增长145.86%-155.32%。报告期内，亚洲区域贸易活跃度提升带动集装箱 海运量增长，运价指数同比上涨11.43%。公司传统优势航线保持市场占有率第一，东南亚航线运营成 果显著，实现量价齐升，利润大幅增长。 锦江航运：上半年净利同比预增145.86%-155.32% ...

关于本栏目 高频数据难懂？挖掘信息不易？【国金高频图鉴】每周一期，与您一同从高频数据库中抽丝剥茧，看懂 全球经济的新变化。如需底层数据库，欢迎联系国金宏观团队。 6 月房地产销售市场继续调整 韩国出口重回正增长 "6·18" 后家电、汽车消费有所下滑 中美航线运力增长带动港口运价回落 01 6月房地产销售市场调整 本期Headline 6月，全国房地产销售市场量价调整，二手房成交面积走弱。 iFinD口径下，30大中城市商品房日均成交面积6月同比-2.2%，7月首周同比-9.2%。 一 、 二 、 三 线 城 市 日 均 成 交 面 积 6 月 同 比 -1.5% 、 0.1% 、 -7.8% ， 7 月 首 周 同 比-7.2%、-11.7%、-7.4%。 02 韩国出口重回正增长 | | 出口总额 | 美国 | 中国 | 半导体 | 汽车 | 船舶 | 计算机 | 石油产品 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-01 | -10.1% | -9. 3% | -14. 0% | 8.1% | -19. 6% | -2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in shipping prices, with a decline of over 63% from nearly $8,000 to below $3,000 for a 40-foot container, signals deeper changes in the global economy and trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Behind the Decline in Shipping Prices - Global consumption is cooling, driven by persistent high inflation in Europe and the U.S., leading to a notable decrease in consumer demand [3]. - The supply chain has stabilized, with a record increase in new ships and a significant reduction in port congestion, resulting in a nearly 10% increase in global container shipping capacity over the past two years [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Red Sea crisis and U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, are increasing trade costs and suppressing trade flows [3]. Group 2: Broader Implications of Falling Shipping Prices - The decline in shipping prices reflects a slowdown in global trade, with the WTO revising its 2024 global goods trade growth forecast down to 2.6%, significantly below historical averages [5]. - Countries are restructuring supply chains, shifting focus from efficiency to security, which may lead to short-term efficiency losses and increased costs [5]. - China's export structure is evolving, with significant growth in new sectors such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries, indicating resilience in the face of external pressures [5]. Group 3: Strategic Insights and Future Directions - Cooperation between major economies is essential for mutual prosperity, as emphasized by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who advocates for collaboration over confrontation [7][9]. - The fluctuations in shipping prices serve as both a warning of challenges and an opportunity to reshape global trade rules [7]. - A stable shipping price curve will signify a return to rationality and cooperation in global trade dynamics [9].

关税下调已过去3周多，今后将进入美国港口卸货量增加的局面。日本神奈川大学教授松田琢磨指 出，"如果港口无法处理完货物，用于向内陆运输的铁路运力不足，有可能会像新冠疫情期间一样出现 混乱"。 发往美国的货物增加还将影响从亚洲发往欧洲等其他集装箱航线。上海发往欧洲（每个20英尺集装箱） 的现货运费比前一周上涨21%，上海发往南美上涨45%。 大型海运公司因发往美国的货物减少，将船只投向欧洲和南美航线。"随着此前被调走的船只返回美国 航线，供需紧张，已经反映在运费上"，神奈川大学教授松田表示。 今后集装箱船运费的行情或将受到中美等国谈判是否取得进展的影响。如果关税放宽，货物运输迅速增 加的预期将加强，另一方面还存在关税再次提高导致货物运输急剧减少的可能性。集装箱船市场的运费 一度急剧上涨，但前景依然难以预测。 上海发往美国西海岸的集装箱运费在5月30日达到5172美元，与中美就暂时降低关税达成协议 之前的水平（5月9日2347美元）相比，现在的运费涨至2.2倍。发往美国西海岸涨幅高于发往东海 岸…… 随着美国和中国下调关税，集装箱船市场上的现货（即时合约）运费正在急剧上涨。因为从中国运往美 国的货物运输量迅速恢复， ...

Group 1 - The average daily container bookings from China to the U.S. surged nearly threefold, increasing from 5,709 TEUs to 21,530 TEUs, a rise of over 277% [1] - The increase in bookings follows the U.S. government's adjustment of tariffs on Chinese goods, which has led to a recovery in shipping volumes [2] - Some logistics companies reported a 35% increase in business inquiries within two days, indicating a potential rebound in logistics activities [3] Group 2 - Major shipping companies, such as Maersk, have introduced significant discounts for door-to-door shipping services to fill empty containers [3] - The overall recovery speed of the logistics business remains uncertain, despite the increase in bookings and inquiries [3]

Group 1 - The shipping stocks are experiencing significant gains, with Pacific Shipping up 8.33% to HKD 1.95, and other companies like Seaspan International and Orient Overseas also showing notable increases [1] - Recent high-level trade talks between China and the US have led to substantial progress, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with the same percentage of counter-tariffs [1] - The upcoming peak season for container shipments on trans-Pacific routes is expected to drive demand, as US supply chain inventory needs are anticipated to increase, leading to a surge in bookings from US buyers for imports from China [1] Group 2 - The surge in cargo volume on the US routes is attributed to a combination of factors, including seasonal increases, urgent shipments due to future concerns, and overall US restocking demands, resulting in a tight supply-demand situation [2] - The pressure on European routes is easing, with marginal recovery in economic demand and expectations of a peak season returning [2]

航运方面，马士基公布 2025 年一季报，公司一季度 EBITDA 同比增长达到 70.4%；航空方面，海南航空"五一"期间运送旅客 61.7 万余人次，"五 一"假期北京大兴机场运送旅客量创投运以来同期新高；快递方面，顺丰同 城"五一"期间全场景业务单量同比增长 87%，4 月份电商物流指数升至 111.1 点 。 核心观点： ①马士基公布 2025 年一季报，公司一季度 EBITDA 同比增长达到 70.4%。2025 年一季度，马士基实现营业收入 133.2 亿美元，同比增长 7.8%；息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）为 27.1 亿美元，同比增长 70.4%；EBIT 为 12.5 亿美元，同比增长 607.9%，EBIT margin 为 9.4%；净利润达到 12.1 亿美元，同比增长 480.3%。 尽管贸易局势紧张 导致集运市场前景更加谨慎，马士基仍维持其 2025 年全年业绩指引， 公司预计全年实际 EBITDA 为 60-90 亿美元、实际 EBIT 为 0-30 亿美 元，自由现金流(FCF) 为负 30 亿美元，2025-2026 年，预计资本支出为 100-110 亿美元。。②海南 ...