Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Bohai Leasing (000415.SZ) with a target price of 4.39 CNY, marking the first coverage of the stock [4]. Core Views - The company is focusing on its core aircraft leasing business after divesting its container leasing assets, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of its asset value [1][39]. - Bohai Leasing has become the second-largest aircraft leasing company globally, with a significant advantage in aircraft orders, primarily for A320NEO and Boeing 737MAX models, aligning with market trends [1][44]. - The ongoing supply-demand gap in the aircraft market is expected to maintain high aircraft values and rental rates, benefiting the company's financial performance [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Aircraft Leasing - Bohai Leasing announced plans to sell its container assets in May 2025, allowing it to concentrate on its aircraft leasing business [1]. - The company’s aircraft leasing revenue has been improving, with aircraft leasing and sales accounting for approximately 80% of total revenue [24]. - The company’s aircraft leasing gross margin has been steadily increasing, reaching 61.5% in 2024 [30]. Section 2: Order Aircraft Advantage - As of Q1 2025, Avolon, a subsidiary of Bohai Leasing, operates a fleet of 1,096 aircraft, making it the second-largest aircraft leasing company globally [44]. - The average age of the fleet has increased to 6.7 years, with a stable remaining lease term of around 6.7 years [40]. - The company has a high fleet utilization rate, achieving 100% in 2024, with all new aircraft deliveries for 2025 and 2026 already leased [50]. Section 3: Aircraft Supply-Demand Gap - Aircraft manufacturers are facing significant production constraints, leading to longer delivery times, with the average delivery time reaching a record 5.3 years in 2024 [70]. - The rental rates for new aircraft have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, driven by the ongoing supply-demand gap [77]. - The global aviation market continues to show growth, with international passenger demand improving significantly, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [86].

Core Viewpoint - The company intends to transfer 100% equity of its subsidiary Global Sea Containers Ltd (GSCL) to Typewriter Ascend Ltd, a subsidiary of Stonepeak Partners LLC, for a base price of $1.75 billion, with potential adjustments based on specific conditions [1][3][17]. Transaction Overview - The transaction has been approved by the company's board and requires various regulatory approvals, including antitrust reviews in multiple jurisdictions [1][3][19]. - The base price for the transaction is set at $1.75 billion, with adjustments based on additional considerations and potential leakage amounts [3][10][17]. Financial Details - The estimated final transaction price, after adjustments, is approximately $1.632 billion, equivalent to about 12.752 billion RMB [3][17]. - GSCL's financial data shows total assets of approximately 43.41 billion RMB and net profits of 1.25 billion RMB for 2023 [6][19]. Buyer Information - Typewriter Ascend is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Typewriter Topco, managed by Stonepeak Partners LLC, which has approximately $73 billion in assets under management [4][5]. Purpose of the Sale - The proceeds from the sale will primarily be used to repay high-interest offshore dollar debts and improve cash flow, which is crucial for the company's financial health [18][20]. - The company aims to focus on its core aircraft leasing business post-transaction, mitigating risks associated with the container leasing market [20][21]. Market Context - The container leasing market is characterized by intense competition among shipping companies, leasing firms, and manufacturers, making it a challenging environment [20]. - The transaction is expected to enhance the company's operational capabilities and financial stability, allowing it to capitalize on opportunities in the recovering aviation sector [20].

Core Insights - The container leasing industry is a crucial pillar in the logistics sector, providing leasing services for various transportation modes including maritime, land, and air [1][14] - The industry has evolved from initial exploration to a mature market since the rise of containerized transport in the 1960s, experiencing rapid growth due to globalization and increased cross-border trade [1][14] - China, as the largest producer and consumer of containers, is witnessing a continuous increase in the market size of the container leasing industry, projected to reach approximately 30 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year growth [1][14] Industry Overview - Container leasing involves agreements between leasing companies and lessees, typically shipping lines or transport companies, for the rental of containers, with responsibilities for maintenance and repair resting on the lessee [3] - The leasing methods can be categorized into three types: time charter, voyage charter, and flexible leasing [3] Market Dynamics - The Chinese container leasing market is expected to continue expanding, particularly driven by the rapid development of emerging markets [1][14] - Government policies have been introduced to promote the development of the container leasing market, including initiatives to encourage collaboration between rail and shipping companies and the establishment of container return points [5][12] Industry Chain - The container leasing industry chain consists of upstream raw material suppliers and container manufacturers, midstream leasing companies, and downstream users including maritime, rail, road, and air transport [8] Current Development - In 2024, China's metal container production is projected to reach 29.8956 million cubic meters, a 177% year-on-year increase, with continued growth expected into 2025 [10] - Container throughput in China is also on the rise, increasing from 26.4 million TEUs in 2020 to an estimated 33.2 million TEUs in 2024, indicating strong demand for container leasing services [12] Competitive Landscape - The industry exhibits a high degree of market concentration, with the top five companies controlling 84.8% of the total container fleet, and the top ten companies holding 92.7% [16] - Major players include China COSCO Shipping Corporation, China International Marine Containers, Bohai Leasing, and China Foreign Trade Development Company [16][18] Future Trends - The container leasing industry is expected to benefit from the rapid development of emerging markets in Asia and Africa, technological innovations, and supportive government policies [22]