宏 2026 年 3 月 2 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国宏观周报（2026 年 2 月第 4 周） 部分工业品生产恢复 证券分析师 平安观点： 宏 观 周 报 观 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，春节假期结束后，本周部分工业品生产恢复，工业品价 格指数也有提升。年初以来新房销售温和恢复，二手房挂牌价逐步止跌； 同时，外贸港口吞吐量及韩国出口数据表现亮眼，体现外需韧性增强。 1. 工业：部分工业品春节后生产恢复。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、 浮法玻璃开工率、部分化工品开工率，以及主要钢材品种表观需求环比提 升；水泥熟料产能利用率、石油沥青开工率环比回落。2）中下游方面，本 周纺织聚酯开工率环比提升，织造业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎开工 率、全钢胎开工率环比反弹。 2. 地产：新房销售温和修复。1）销售方面，年初以来（截至 2 月 27 日）， 30 大中城市新房销售面积同比-24.6%，较去年 ...

来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 2月27日，青岛港涨1.09%，成交额1.32亿元，换手率0.26%，总市值604.32亿元。 主力持仓 异动分析 中韩自贸区+航运概念+一带一路+华为概念 1、青岛地处山东半岛，离韩国的距离很近，并且青岛进出口企业与韩国有往来，中韩自贸协议的签 署， 青岛港区位于中国环渤海地区港口群及长江三角洲港口群的中心地带,占有东北亚港口沿线的中心 位置，给青岛港带来利好 2、公司主要从事集装箱、金属矿石、煤炭、原油等各类货物的装卸和配套服务、物流及港口增值服 务、港口配套服务、金融服务等。 3、公司作为百年老港、"一带一路"的重要节点以及世界第七大港青岛港区的唯一综合运营商，近年来 经营业绩表现良好，收入及盈利规模稳步增长。 4、华为与青岛港签合作协议，在国内主要大港加速拓展智慧港口业务 (免责声明：分析内容来源于互联网，不构成投资建议，请投资者根据不同行情独立判断) 资金分析 今日主力净流入185.09万，占比0.01%，行业排名21/35，该股当前无连续增减仓现象，主力趋势不明 显；所属行业主力净流入1.75亿，当前无连续增减仓现象，主力趋势不明显。 区间今日近3日近5日近10日近20 ...

来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 2月26日，青岛港涨0.00%，成交额9007.21万元。两融数据显示，当日青岛港获融资买入额446.94万 元，融资偿还415.36万元，融资净买入31.58万元。截至2月26日，青岛港融资融券余额合计6789.98万 元。 融资方面，青岛港当日融资买入446.94万元。当前融资余额6779.85万元，占流通市值的0.14%，融资余 额低于近一年10%分位水平，处于低位。 资料显示，青岛港国际股份有限公司位于山东省青岛市市北区港极路7号，成立日期2013年11月15日， 上市日期2019年1月21日，公司主营业务涉及集装箱、金属矿石、煤炭、原油等各类货物的装卸及配套 服务、物流及港口增值服务、港口配套服务、金融服务等。主营业务收入构成为：装卸及相关业务 56.72%，物流及港口增值服务36.96%，港口配套服务-销售油、电及其他3.25%，港口配套服务-租金收 入1.95%，港口配套服务-工程等劳务1.13%。 截至9月30日，青岛港股东户数3.83万，较上期增加7.23%；人均流通股0股，较上期增加0.00%。2025年 1月-9月，青岛港实现营业收入142.38亿元，同比增长 ...

来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 2月25日，青岛港涨0.55%，成交额1.04亿元。两融数据显示，当日青岛港获融资买入额887.07万元，融 资偿还1054.66万元，融资净买入-167.59万元。截至2月25日，青岛港融资融券余额合计6761.81万元。 融资方面，青岛港当日融资买入887.07万元。当前融资余额6748.27万元，占流通市值的0.14%，融资余 额低于近一年10%分位水平，处于低位。 融券方面，青岛港2月25日融券偿还1100.00股，融券卖出0.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额0.00 元；融券余量1.47万股，融券余额13.54万元，超过近一年50%分位水平，处于较高位。 资料显示，青岛港国际股份有限公司位于山东省青岛市市北区港极路7号，成立日期2013年11月15日， 上市日期2019年1月21日，公司主营业务涉及集装箱、金属矿石、煤炭、原油等各类货物的装卸及配套 服务、物流及港口增值服务、港口配套服务、金融服务等。主营业务收入构成为：装卸及相关业务 56.72%，物流及港口增值服务36.96%，港口配套服务-销售油、电及其他3.25%，港口配套服务-租金收 入1.95%，港口配套服务 ...

来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 今日主力净流入-7.42万，占比0%，行业排名18/35，该股当前无连续增减仓现象，主力趋势不明显；所 属行业主力净流入-7.76亿，当前无连续增减仓现象，主力趋势不明显。 2月25日，青岛港涨0.55%，成交额1.04亿元，换手率0.21%，总市值597.83亿元。 异动分析 中韩自贸区+航运概念+一带一路+华为概念 1、青岛地处山东半岛，离韩国的距离很近，并且青岛进出口企业与韩国有往来，中韩自贸协议的签 署， 青岛港区位于中国环渤海地区港口群及长江三角洲港口群的中心地带,占有东北亚港口沿线的中心 位置，给青岛港带来利好 2、公司主要从事集装箱、金属矿石、煤炭、原油等各类货物的装卸和配套服务、物流及港口增值服 务、港口配套服务、金融服务等。 3、公司作为百年老港、"一带一路"的重要节点以及世界第七大港青岛港区的唯一综合运营商，近年来 经营业绩表现良好，收入及盈利规模稳步增长。 4、华为与青岛港签合作协议，在国内主要大港加速拓展智慧港口业务 (免责声明：分析内容来源于互联网，不构成投资建议，请投资者根据不同行情独立判断) 资金分析 分红方面，青岛港A股上市后累计派现137.70亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the shipping and port sector [1][12] Core Insights - The report addresses key issues by tracking core high-frequency data in the shipping and port sector [5][18] - The overall performance of cargo throughput remains stable, with a notable recovery in iron ore throughput and steady growth in container throughput [12] Summary by Sections 1. Overview: National Import and Export Total and Cargo Throughput - In 2025, the national import and export total reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. The import total was 18.48 trillion yuan, up 0.5%, while the export total was 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1% [6][19] - Coastal major ports achieved a cargo throughput of 116.34 billion tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with foreign trade cargo throughput reaching 50.66 billion tons, up 4.7% [7][32] 2. Container: Shipping Rates and Container Throughput - As of February 6, 2026, the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) was at 1122.15 points, down 20.7% year-on-year and 4.55% month-on-month. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) was at 1266.56 points, down 33.22% year-on-year and 3.81% month-on-month [9][36] - In 2025, the container throughput at coastal major ports reached 31.198 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 7% [9][41] 3. Liquid Bulk: Oil Shipping Rates and Crude Oil Throughput - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 1691 points on February 6, 2026, up 87.26% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 917 points, up 29.89% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month [10][42] - In 2025, crude oil imports totaled 578 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, while the throughput at major crude oil receiving ports was 389 million tons, down 3.4% year-on-year [10][47] 4. Dry Bulk: Shipping Rates and Iron Ore, Coal Throughput - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was at 1923 points on February 6, 2026, up 135.95% year-on-year and 9.14% month-on-month [11][51] - In 2025, iron ore throughput at major receiving ports reached 1.399 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.39%, while coal throughput was 688 million tons, down 1.07% year-on-year [11][64]

证券日报网讯2月12日，中远海发（601866）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司集装箱制造业务 主体是所属上海寰宇物流装备有限公司，销售收入主要来自集装箱业务销售收入，造箱业务板块主要客 户包含全球位居行业前列的班轮公司以及租箱公司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Panama Supreme Court's ruling that invalidated the port concession contracts of Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Group, transferring operational rights to Maersk, highlighting the geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. in the maritime sector [5][6]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The ruling is seen as a critical event in the ongoing geopolitical struggle between China and the U.S., particularly in the maritime domain, where the U.S. has been promoting narratives of "Chinese maritime threats" [5][6]. - The U.S. maritime system relies on layered control and offshore outsourcing, leveraging its naval power for global shipping security, while China is developing an independent maritime system that challenges U.S. hegemony [6][11]. Group 2: Systemic Competition - The article emphasizes the need for a systemic analysis of significant commercial actions within the global shipping logistics sector, as they reflect power struggles over control of key supply chain segments [8][9]. - The sale of Cheung Kong's port network to a consortium led by MSC and BlackRock signifies a shift in global shipping dynamics, with potential implications for China's maritime enterprises [8][9]. Group 3: U.S. Strategic Responses - The U.S. has adopted a defensive posture, moving from offshore outsourcing to reshaping its domestic supply chains in response to perceived threats from China's maritime industry [28][30]. - Specific actions include legislative efforts to restrict the procurement of Chinese-made port equipment and investigations into China's shipbuilding capabilities, indicating a comprehensive strategy to limit China's maritime influence [29][30]. Group 4: China's Maritime Development - China's maritime industry has developed an independent and resilient supply chain, rooted in a comprehensive industrial system established over decades, which is now increasingly self-sufficient [21][24]. - The growth of China's shipping industry is driven by internal demand and has led to significant advancements in shipbuilding, port operations, and logistics, positioning it as a global leader in these sectors [24][25]. Group 5: Future Implications - The competition between the U.S. and China in the maritime sector is expected to be long-term and complex, with both nations vying for dominance in a system that is not merely about market share but involves deeper structural and geopolitical considerations [33][31]. - The evolving dynamics of global shipping will likely reshape supply chain risks and structures, reflecting the ongoing power struggle between the two nations [33][32].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the recent performance of China International Marine Containers (Group) Co., Ltd. (CIMC), with a stock price increase of 5.61% to 11.67 CNY per share, a trading volume of 402 million CNY, and a total market capitalization of 629.31 billion CNY [1] - CIMC's main business segments include container manufacturing (28.57%), logistics services (17.85%), energy, chemical and liquid food equipment (17.10%), road transport vehicles (12.82%), marine engineering (10.53%), and others [1] Group 2 - Among CIMC's top ten circulating shareholders, Southern Fund's Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) reduced its holdings by 561,400 shares in the third quarter, now holding 26.7752 million shares, which is 0.5% of the circulating shares [2] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF has a total scale of 144.69 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 11.29% and a one-year return of 43.5% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Port experienced a decline of 2.26% in stock price, with a trading volume of 298 million yuan and a market capitalization of 61.665 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. is located in Qingdao, Shandong Province, and was established on November 15, 2013, with its listing date on January 21, 2019 [6] - The company primarily engages in the loading and unloading of various goods, including containers, metal ores, coal, and crude oil, as well as logistics and port value-added services [6] - The revenue composition of the company includes 56.72% from loading and related services, 36.96% from logistics and port value-added services, and smaller percentages from other port-related services [6] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Qingdao Port achieved an operating income of 14.238 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.180 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.33% [6] - The company has distributed a total of 13.77 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 6.638 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [7] Group 3: Market Position and Strategic Initiatives - Qingdao Port is strategically positioned in the center of the Bohai Sea and Yangtze River Delta port clusters, benefiting from the China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement and the Belt and Road Initiative [2] - The company has signed a cooperation agreement with Huawei to accelerate the development of smart port operations in major domestic ports [3] Group 4: Shareholder and Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders of Qingdao Port increased to 38,300, reflecting a growth of 7.23% [6] - The top ten circulating shareholders include various institutional investors, with notable increases in holdings from Southern S&P China A-share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility ETF and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited [8]