Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The improvement in Sino-US tariff situation meets the daily report's rebound expectation. It is not recommended to increase positions, and partial profit-taking can be considered. Attention should be paid to the freight rates in November [1]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [3]. - Although the mutual reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the market to some extent, the freight rates in November may not reach the previously announced increase, suppressing the upward movement of the market. Under the game between long and short positions, the market is generally in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period, and for the US West route was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% [2]. - On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1100.32 points, up 12.60% from the previous period; for the European route was 965.62 points, up 17.43%; for the US West route was 1452.82 points, up 12.30% [2]. - On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, up 147.24 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1344 USD/TEU, up 7.87%; for the US West route was 2647 USD/FEU, up 22.94% [2]. - On October 31, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1021.39 points, up 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route was 1323.81 points, up 2.4%; for the US West route was 772.67 points, up 4.9% [2]. Economic Data - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing sentiment [3]. - In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9, expected to be 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the preliminary value of the Service PMI was 51.2, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 49.7, expected to be 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Service PMI in October was 55.2, expected to be 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI was 52.2, expected to be 52, and the previous value was 52; the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 54.8, expected to be 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [3]. Futures Market - On October 31, the main contract 2512 closed at 1804.0, with a decline of 2.54%, a trading volume of 59,500 lots, and an open interest of 31,400 lots, an increase of 1251 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottoming - out judgment. Risk - lovers who were advised to build positions below 1500 in the EC2512 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) can consider partial profit - taking. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it has been recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Tariff Policy - The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agree to continue to extend some tariff exclusion measures [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Wednesday market fluctuated and slightly declined. In the first half of November, OA and MSK had no pressure in receiving goods, while the PA alliance was short of goods, leading to price cuts. In the second half of November, due to the previous congestion at European ports, 4 ships might cause the overall fundamentals to be tight in November. The market has a neutral expectation that the freight rate in November may reach 2000 - 2200 US dollars (1400 - 1540 points). It is necessary to observe whether shipping companies will take actions such as blank sailings or re - allocation. Also, observe whether shipping companies will announce price increases for the second half of the month [2]. - Currently, the valuation of the 12 contract is moderately high. Driven by multiple factors such as upcoming price increase announcements and long - term contract signings from November to December, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips (waiting for a possible market decline in the second half of November). The valuation of the 02 contract is difficult to determine, with high uncertainty, and it is expected to follow the trend of the 12 contract in the next month. The 04 contract is for the off - season, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies under the greater supply pressure next year [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts on the previous day were 1843.8, 1583.0, 1175.9, 1403.3, 1487.5, and 1132.5 respectively, with changes of - 1.45%, - 1.43%, - 1.59%, - 1.38%, - 2.22%, and - 0.63% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts on the previous day were 17598, 4555, 1891, 96, 119, and 388 respectively. The open interests were 30114, 16233, 14460, 1411, 1324, and 1062 respectively, with changes of - 17, 348, 0, 1, 24, and 150 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 were 667.9, 260.8, and 407.1 respectively, with changes of - 8.7, - 4.2, and - 4.5 compared to the previous day [2]. Index Information - **SCHIS**: The latest value on October 27, 2025, was 1312.71 points, with a month - on - month increase of 15.11% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82% [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: On October 24, 2025, it was 1246 US dollars/TEU, compared to 1145 in the previous period and 1068 two periods ago [2]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: On October 24, 2025, it was 1293.12 points, with a month - on - month increase of 1.99% and a decrease of 1.49% in the previous period [2]. - **NCFI**: On October 24, 2025, it was 822.3 points, with a month - on - month increase of 2.38% and a 14.96% increase in the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 44 Quotations**: The offline quotations of PA, GEMINI, and OA were 1400, 1600, and 1800 US dollars respectively [4]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. MSK opened at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations, and then shipping companies reduced the price to 1800 - 2300 US dollars, with a central range of 2000 - 2100 US dollars [4]. Shipping Company Price Adjustment Information - **Wednesday**: MSK reduced the price to 2200 US dollars and announced a long - term contract peak - season surcharge of 300 US dollars/FEU. YML reduced the price of a single route to 1850 US dollars [8]. - **Thursday**: ONE reduced the price to 1900 US dollars, HMM to 1800 US dollars. OOCL reduced the price of a single route to 2100 US dollars, and the rest were in the range of 2200 - 2300 US dollars [8]. News - On October 30, the US Senate passed a resolution to terminate President Trump's global comprehensive tariff policy with 51 votes in favor and 47 against [6]. - On October 30, the Israeli military said it had carried out air strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese president ordered the military to respond to Israeli incursions [6].

1. Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the freight rates in October have been further reduced. The spot freight rates show a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an expanding decline. Attention should be paid to whether the rate of freight rate reduction can slow down and whether the bottom of the freight rate can be formed. The tense situation in the Middle East may support the far - month contracts. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the SCFIS fell below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks. The freight rates in October were further reduced, with the opening price in the first half of October dropping to a minimum of $1400/FEU. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's quotes for the first and second weeks of October were $1400 and $1470 respectively, about $200 lower than the late - September quotes. Other airlines followed suit, with the quotes of major airlines concentrated between $1435 - $1500, also about $200 lower than before. The 12 - month contract may have low - buying opportunities, and the 10 - month contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. 4.2 Industry News - From September 15th to 19th, the demand for China's export container transportation was weak, the market freight rates on ocean routes continued to adjust, and the decline of the composite index widened. The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries nationwide was 5.2%, showing strong resilience. On September 19th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, a 14.3% drop from the previous period. In the European route, Germany's economic situation was still sluggish. The freight rates in the spot market continued to decline. In the Mediterranean route, the supply - demand fundamentals were weak, and the market freight rates continued to adjust. In the North American route, the consumer confidence index in the United States dropped to a new low since May this year, and the freight rates in the spot market dropped significantly. There were also reports on the tense situation in the Middle East, including the US veto of the Gaza cease - fire resolution and the Israeli military's actions in Gaza [9][10]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on September 22, 2025, was 1254.92 points, a 12.9% drop from September 15th. The SCFIS for the US - West route (basic ports) was 1193.64 points, an 11.6% drop from September 15th [12]. 4.3.2 Futures Quotes of Container Shipping Index (European Route) - Trading data for September 22nd showed that different contracts of container shipping futures (European route) had different price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1,093.7, a settlement price of 1,102.0, a rise of 21.4, and a rise rate of 2.00%, with a trading volume of 44,939 and an open interest of 46,030 [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Various charts related to shipping data were provided, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Settlement Freight Index, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][17][22]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The shipping capacity in July and August 2025 shows different levels, with weekly average capacities of 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively. The cargo volume is entering a downward period, which is expected to put significant pressure on subsequent freight rates. The recent quotes of European routes have decreased, and the quotes of shipping companies in late July are generally stable [1]. 2. Key Data Futures Contracts | Contract | Closing Price | Change (%) | Base Price | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2508 | 2022.5 | 0.50 | 235.5 | 34566 | 30842 | -403 | | EC2510 | 2022.5 | 0.80 | 235.5 | - | - | - | | EC2512 | 1556.4 | 0.17 | 701.6 | 1644 | 6032 | - | | EC2602 | 1365.7 | 0.91 | 892.3 | 416 | 3799 | 24 | | EC2604 | 1204.0 | 1.11 | 1054.0 | 088 | - | 28 | | EC2606 | 1342.1 | 0.72 | 915.9 | 109 | 471 | 41 | [1] Spot Indices | Index | Update Frequency | Announcement Date | Unit | Current Period | Previous Period | Two Periods Ago | Current Change | Previous Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Terdar | Electric Appliance | 2025/7/7 | Yuan | 2258.04 | 2123.24 | 1937.14 | 6.35% | 9.61% | | SCFI (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/7/4 | USD/TEU | 2101 | 2030 | 1832 | 3.50% | 10.63% | | CCFI (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/7/4 | Points | 1694.3 | 1640.72 | 1578.6 | 3.27% | 3.94% | | NCFI (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/7/4 | Points | 1442.46 | 1442.95 | 1299.58 | -0.03% | 11.03% | | TCI | Daily | 2025/7/9 | - | 1019.55 | 1019.55 | 1019.55 | 0.00% | 0.00% | [1] Freight Rates - The freight rates in the first half of July were around $3380 (equivalent to 2350 points on the futures market). The quotes of shipping companies in late July are generally stable, with the current quote range between $2900 - $3500, and the average is $3400 (equivalent to 2400 points on the futures market) [1][2] 3. Market News - On July 11, Israeli senior officials stated that a cease - fire agreement in Gaza might be reached in one or two weeks. Israel will offer a temporary cease - fire, and if Hamas does not lay down its arms, Israel will continue military operations. Houthi armed leaders said that as long as Israel continues its "aggression" in Gaza, their maritime operations against ships will continue. The Houthi armed forces claimed to have launched 45 attacks on Israeli - related targets in the past week [3] 4. Shipping Capacity and Quote Changes - The shipping capacity in the third week of July is relatively high at 320,000 TEU, and the fourth - week capacity is 290,000 TEU. The capacity in the first week of August reaches 340,000 TEU. Recently, the quotes of European routes have decreased. On Thursday, MSC's offline quote dropped from $3440 to $3140, and HPL's online quote dropped from $3535 to $3335 [1]

Core Insights - The shipping market is experiencing fluctuations, with Maersk maintaining stable pricing on European routes, raising questions about the sustainability of this upward trend [1] - Institutions indicate that an increase in supply in the second half of the year will exacerbate supply-demand conflicts, putting pressure on freight rates [1] - It is anticipated that freight rates on European routes will decline in the third quarter [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the easing of tariff policies, which may enhance profitability in the pulp shipping market [2]. - The company's performance in 2024 is projected to be at the upper limit of previous forecasts, with a significant increase in gross profit driven by rising shipping rates and increased automotive transport volumes [2][3]. - The company anticipates steady growth in its mechanical equipment and automotive transportation segments, supported by favorable trade relations [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net profit of 1.53 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 44% [2][3]. - For Q1 2025, the net profit was 350 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit for 2024 is expected to reach 3.66 billion yuan, a 73% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.8%, up by 4.2 percentage points [2][3]. Segment Performance Summary - The multi-purpose and heavy-lift vessels generated a combined gross profit of 1.37 billion yuan in 2024, a 91% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand in advanced manufacturing exports [2]. - The gross profit from pulp and automotive vessels reached 1.26 billion yuan, a 255% increase year-on-year, with automotive shipments increasing by 46% [2]. - The semi-submersible vessels reported a gross profit of 490 million yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, primarily due to delayed contracts [2]. Future Profitability Outlook - The company expects profits of 1.88 billion yuan, 2.28 billion yuan, and 2.48 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 22%, and 9% [2][3]. - The estimated PE ratio for 2025 is projected to be 9.3x, indicating favorable growth potential [2][3].