集运运价

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建信期货集运指数日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:52
1. Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the freight rates in October have been further reduced. The spot freight rates show a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an expanding decline. Attention should be paid to whether the rate of freight rate reduction can slow down and whether the bottom of the freight rate can be formed. The tense situation in the Middle East may support the far - month contracts. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the SCFIS fell below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks. The freight rates in October were further reduced, with the opening price in the first half of October dropping to a minimum of $1400/FEU. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's quotes for the first and second weeks of October were $1400 and $1470 respectively, about $200 lower than the late - September quotes. Other airlines followed suit, with the quotes of major airlines concentrated between $1435 - $1500, also about $200 lower than before. The 12 - month contract may have low - buying opportunities, and the 10 - month contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. 4.2 Industry News - From September 15th to 19th, the demand for China's export container transportation was weak, the market freight rates on ocean routes continued to adjust, and the decline of the composite index widened. The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries nationwide was 5.2%, showing strong resilience. On September 19th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, a 14.3% drop from the previous period. In the European route, Germany's economic situation was still sluggish. The freight rates in the spot market continued to decline. In the Mediterranean route, the supply - demand fundamentals were weak, and the market freight rates continued to adjust. In the North American route, the consumer confidence index in the United States dropped to a new low since May this year, and the freight rates in the spot market dropped significantly. There were also reports on the tense situation in the Middle East, including the US veto of the Gaza cease - fire resolution and the Israeli military's actions in Gaza [9][10]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on September 22, 2025, was 1254.92 points, a 12.9% drop from September 15th. The SCFIS for the US - West route (basic ports) was 1193.64 points, an 11.6% drop from September 15th [12]. 4.3.2 Futures Quotes of Container Shipping Index (European Route) - Trading data for September 22nd showed that different contracts of container shipping futures (European route) had different price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1,093.7, a settlement price of 1,102.0, a rise of 21.4, and a rise rate of 2.00%, with a trading volume of 44,939 and an open interest of 46,030 [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Various charts related to shipping data were provided, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Settlement Freight Index, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][17][22]
集运早报-20250711
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 08:29
Report Summary 1. Core View - The shipping capacity in July and August 2025 shows different levels, with weekly average capacities of 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively. The cargo volume is entering a downward period, which is expected to put significant pressure on subsequent freight rates. The recent quotes of European routes have decreased, and the quotes of shipping companies in late July are generally stable [1]. 2. Key Data Futures Contracts | Contract | Closing Price | Change (%) | Base Price | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2508 | 2022.5 | 0.50 | 235.5 | 34566 | 30842 | -403 | | EC2510 | 2022.5 | 0.80 | 235.5 | - | - | - | | EC2512 | 1556.4 | 0.17 | 701.6 | 1644 | 6032 | - | | EC2602 | 1365.7 | 0.91 | 892.3 | 416 | 3799 | 24 | | EC2604 | 1204.0 | 1.11 | 1054.0 | 088 | - | 28 | | EC2606 | 1342.1 | 0.72 | 915.9 | 109 | 471 | 41 | [1] Spot Indices | Index | Update Frequency | Announcement Date | Unit | Current Period | Previous Period | Two Periods Ago | Current Change | Previous Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Terdar | Electric Appliance | 2025/7/7 | Yuan | 2258.04 | 2123.24 | 1937.14 | 6.35% | 9.61% | | SCFI (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/7/4 | USD/TEU | 2101 | 2030 | 1832 | 3.50% | 10.63% | | CCFI (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/7/4 | Points | 1694.3 | 1640.72 | 1578.6 | 3.27% | 3.94% | | NCFI (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/7/4 | Points | 1442.46 | 1442.95 | 1299.58 | -0.03% | 11.03% | | TCI | Daily | 2025/7/9 | - | 1019.55 | 1019.55 | 1019.55 | 0.00% | 0.00% | [1] Freight Rates - The freight rates in the first half of July were around $3380 (equivalent to 2350 points on the futures market). The quotes of shipping companies in late July are generally stable, with the current quote range between $2900 - $3500, and the average is $3400 (equivalent to 2400 points on the futures market) [1][2] 3. Market News - On July 11, Israeli senior officials stated that a cease - fire agreement in Gaza might be reached in one or two weeks. Israel will offer a temporary cease - fire, and if Hamas does not lay down its arms, Israel will continue military operations. Houthi armed leaders said that as long as Israel continues its "aggression" in Gaza, their maritime operations against ships will continue. The Houthi armed forces claimed to have launched 45 attacks on Israeli - related targets in the past week [3] 4. Shipping Capacity and Quote Changes - The shipping capacity in the third week of July is relatively high at 320,000 TEU, and the fourth - week capacity is 290,000 TEU. The capacity in the first week of August reaches 340,000 TEU. Recently, the quotes of European routes have decreased. On Thursday, MSC's offline quote dropped from $3440 to $3140, and HPL's online quote dropped from $3535 to $3335 [1]
【期货热点追踪】集运盘面震荡走高,马士基欧线报价维稳,后市涨势能否持续?机构表示下半年供应规模增加令供需矛盾加剧,对运价形成压制,预计三季度欧线运价将.....点击阅读。
news flash· 2025-07-10 02:34
Core Insights - The shipping market is experiencing fluctuations, with Maersk maintaining stable pricing on European routes, raising questions about the sustainability of this upward trend [1] - Institutions indicate that an increase in supply in the second half of the year will exacerbate supply-demand conflicts, putting pressure on freight rates [1] - It is anticipated that freight rates on European routes will decline in the third quarter [1]
中远海特(600428):业务量较快增长,关税缓解纸浆船去程运价有望受益
CMS· 2025-05-21 10:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the easing of tariff policies, which may enhance profitability in the pulp shipping market [2]. - The company's performance in 2024 is projected to be at the upper limit of previous forecasts, with a significant increase in gross profit driven by rising shipping rates and increased automotive transport volumes [2][3]. - The company anticipates steady growth in its mechanical equipment and automotive transportation segments, supported by favorable trade relations [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net profit of 1.53 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 44% [2][3]. - For Q1 2025, the net profit was 350 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit for 2024 is expected to reach 3.66 billion yuan, a 73% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.8%, up by 4.2 percentage points [2][3]. Segment Performance Summary - The multi-purpose and heavy-lift vessels generated a combined gross profit of 1.37 billion yuan in 2024, a 91% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand in advanced manufacturing exports [2]. - The gross profit from pulp and automotive vessels reached 1.26 billion yuan, a 255% increase year-on-year, with automotive shipments increasing by 46% [2]. - The semi-submersible vessels reported a gross profit of 490 million yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, primarily due to delayed contracts [2]. Future Profitability Outlook - The company expects profits of 1.88 billion yuan, 2.28 billion yuan, and 2.48 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 22%, and 9% [2][3]. - The estimated PE ratio for 2025 is projected to be 9.3x, indicating favorable growth potential [2][3].