Core Concept - The article discusses the "Permanent Portfolio" investment strategy proposed by Harry Browne, which aims to generate returns regardless of economic conditions by diversifying investments across four asset types: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash [1][3]. Economic Environments - Browne identifies four economic environments: inflation, deflation, economic growth, and economic recession, each influencing different asset classes [3][5]. - In economic growth, corporate profits rise, leading to increased stock prices [5]. - Inflation results in high demand, causing commodity prices to rise due to supply shortages [6][7]. - Deflation indicates weak demand, prompting governments to lower interest rates, which boosts bond prices [9][10]. - During economic recessions, holding cash provides a safety net and allows for opportunistic investments [11]. Investment Strategy - The strategy involves dividing capital equally into four parts (25% each) and investing in the identified asset classes, ensuring that at least one asset is likely to perform well regardless of economic conditions [12][13]. - The portfolio requires periodic rebalancing to maintain the 25% allocation, adjusting for any significant price changes in the assets [15][19]. Performance and Adaptation - Over 50 years, the Permanent Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 8%-9%, with only four years of slight losses, demonstrating resilience even during market downturns [23][24]. - The concept has been widely adopted by financial institutions in developed countries, including sovereign wealth funds and endowment funds [31]. Comparison with New Strategies - The article introduces a new investment tool called "Three-Part Method," which modifies the Permanent Portfolio approach by replacing cash with short-term bonds for better efficiency [32][36]. - The Three-Part Method diversifies investments across various global markets, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and others, to capture broader economic growth [39]. - It allows for personalized asset allocation based on individual risk tolerance, contrasting with the fixed allocation of the Permanent Portfolio [41]. Investment Execution - The Three-Part Method encourages regular investment through dollar-cost averaging, which helps mitigate the risks of market volatility and promotes disciplined investing [44]. - It emphasizes three types of diversification: asset diversification (stocks, bonds, commodities), market diversification (various global stock markets), and time diversification (through regular investments and rebalancing) [48].

做配置的小雪 . 曾经幻想暴富，现实变成暴负，投资只能慢慢变富～ 以下文章来源于做配置的小雪 ，作者做配置的小雪 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 最近，刷到知名经济学家付鹏的一条短视频，视频内容的核心主旨是： 年轻人本金少，炒股就要赌一把！ 付鹏的理由如下： 1、钱少，就应该追求高 收益率 。 因为"钱少和资产过亿、过千万的这种级别，投资的逻辑思维是不一样的，本金500万，赚5%就很开心了，本金只有50万，赚10倍才有500万"。 2、年轻人更适合在股市里赌博。 因为"你是年轻人，没有孩子也没有负担，赌一把可能从1到10，再赌一把可能从10到100"。 一、"钱少，就应该追逐高 收益率 "？ 错！资本市场人人平等，不会因为钱多钱少就区别对待。 3、让年轻人复利，就是忽悠年轻人。 因为"就算玩复利，你知道复利增长20倍，需要多长时间吗？所以我们不应该在这忽悠年轻人，让年轻人稳定投资、复利增长，是在给他们洗脑"。 听起来字字珠玑，非常为我们年轻人着想，但事实上，付鹏画的饼很香，但很毒！ 投资是相当逆人性的，任何顺应人性、让我们爽到的观点，都要保持警惕。 难道本金500万的有钱人，就不想要高收益率吗？ 当然想 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that in 2025, investing in mainstream indices yielded positive returns due to a favorable monetary policy environment, with significant gains in various asset classes, particularly gold and silver [2][4]. - Major global indices showed substantial growth, with the Hang Seng Index leading at 27.77%, followed by the Nikkei 225 at 26.18%, and the Shanghai Composite Index at 17.66% [5]. - Despite overall positive performance, there were notable fluctuations and risks throughout the year, including significant drawdowns in major indices due to various market events [11]. Group 2 - The investment landscape in 2025 was characterized by a structural shift towards technology and metals, with AI and advanced manufacturing sectors leading the market, while traditional sectors like coal and real estate lagged [13][14]. - Successful investing in 2025 required a diversified approach and the ability to select the right assets amidst rapid market rotations [15]. - Investor psychology played a crucial role in determining returns, with common pitfalls including emotional decision-making and mismanagement of market expectations [16][22]. Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, the article suggests that the prevailing low-interest-rate environment will continue to favor risk assets, encouraging investors to adopt a diversified investment strategy across various asset classes [24][25]. - The article highlights the importance of long-term investment strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging and dynamic rebalancing, to mitigate short-term market volatility and capture asset rotation opportunities [28].