↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 这些都让萦绕全行业三年的终极疑问，显得愈发沉重迫切。 中国白酒行业到底见底了吗？当下究竟是周期性调整的尾声，还是结构性衰退的开端？ 为回答这个问题，我构建了一套涵盖6类18项"见底"前瞻指标的分析系统，结合三季报核心数据与行业实时动态，对照白酒产业史上两次危机经验 和全球烈酒周期规律，尝试解析本轮调整的核心逻辑与未来走向。 01 财报的寒意 2025年三季度，白酒行业"强者愈强、弱者愈弱"的分化格局达到历史极值。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 方醒鹿 来源：雪球 截至10月31日，白酒行业上市公司的三季报全部出齐。 超预期的惨淡数据与最新行业动态相互印证，库存高企与价格倒挂的恶性循环持续加剧，消费需求疲软与行业出清加速并行，此前众人预期的"触 底反弹"化为泡影。 仅少数头部企业维持增长韧性，多数次高端及区域酒企陷入营收利润双降的困境，行业出清速度显著加快，印证了"凛冬之下，唯有龙头抗寒"的残 酷现实。 头部酒企增速放缓但韧性凸显，成为行业"压舱石"。 贵州茅台以绝对优势保持行业定力，前三季度实现营业总收入13 ...

Core Insights - The competition in the Hebei liquor market is shifting from a dominance of strong aroma liquor to a multi-aroma battle, with the clear aroma segment gaining significant traction led by Fenjiu [1][5][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The clear aroma segment, spearheaded by Fenjiu, has achieved approximately 3 billion yuan in sales in Hebei for 2024, with the "Glass Fen" series contributing 80%-90% of this volume [1][3] - The "Qinghua Fen" product has successfully penetrated the mid-to-high-end business banquet market, indicating a structural shift from volume to value products in the clear aroma category [1][3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The clear aroma category's growth has opened market opportunities for other brands like Baofeng and Jinyang Wang, which are now targeting Hebei as a key battleground for national expansion [3][4] - The stronghold of the strong aroma segment, led by Luzhou Laojiao, remains significant with over 5 billion yuan in market size, particularly with the 38-degree Guojiao 1573 being a top choice for high-end business events [5][7] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Local strong aroma brands are facing challenges from consumer diversion and growth pressures, prompting them to explore clear aroma products, as seen with Congtai Liquor's investment in producing clear aroma liquor [5][7] - The market's evolution reflects a broader trend in the national liquor industry, with the competition now focusing on price segments, consumer acceptance in various scenarios, and strategic positioning of local brands against national players [9][10]