酒行业丨市场观察 本周看点： -国内酒业整体"入冬"，突围之路仍不明朗； -这五年，酒业经历了什么？全景复盘"十四五"大事记； -宴席市场，能否成为白酒行业最后的"救命稻草"？ 行业环境 1.国内酒业整体"入冬"，突围之路仍不明朗 关键词：酒业入冬,产量下降,营收下滑,消费疲软,价格跳水 概要：国内酒业整体"入冬"，白酒和啤酒行业均面临严峻挑战。白酒产量从2016年的1358万吨 降至629万吨，啤酒产量从2013年的5080万吨降至3312万吨。白酒行业出现"量价双杀"，经销 商亏本抛售，价格倒挂严重，龙头企业如贵州茅台和五粮液业绩增速大幅下滑。啤酒行业同样 疲软，线下消费场景减少，吨价承压，青岛啤酒等头部企业销量增长乏力。为应对困境，酒企 转向低度白酒和光瓶酒以吸引年轻人，啤酒厂商则推出无醇、低糖等"轻型酒精"饮品。尽管行 业整体低迷，但长期增长潜力仍存，创新和细分市场成为破局关键。 2.白酒回春，价格集体涨疯了！ 关键词：白酒涨价,电商平台,价格倒挂,库存高企,稳价去库存 概要：双十一期间，白酒成为电商平台低价引流工具，但半个月后行业掀起集体涨价潮，茅 台、洋河等核心单品接连提价。这轮涨价从中端酒开始， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing a severe downturn, with high inventory levels and weak consumer demand leading to a vicious cycle of price declines and industry consolidation, contradicting previous expectations of a rebound [3][5]. Financial Performance - By Q3 2025, the liquor industry has seen a significant divergence, with only a few leading companies maintaining growth while most mid-tier and regional brands experience declines in both revenue and profit [7]. - Kweichow Moutai reported a revenue of 130.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, but its growth momentum has weakened significantly compared to previous years [8]. - Second-tier brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are under pressure, with Wuliangye's revenue down 10.26% and Luzhou Laojiao's down 4.84% year-on-year [9][10]. - Lower-tier and regional brands are facing severe losses, with companies like Yanghe and Jiu Gui reporting significant declines in revenue and profits [10]. Industry Dynamics - As of November 1, 2025, the industry dynamics continue to worsen, with no progress in inventory reduction and a collapsing price system [13]. - The price of high-end liquor has dropped significantly, with Moutai's price falling over 28% since the beginning of the year [14]. - Inventory levels are high, with Moutai's inventory turnover days reaching 995 days, indicating a prolonged inventory clearance period [11][15]. - Demand remains weak, with traditional consumption scenarios shrinking and younger consumers shifting towards lower-alcohol beverages [16]. Bottoming Indicators - The industry is far from confirming a bottom, with significant gaps in inventory reduction, price stabilization, demand transformation, competitive landscape, policy support, and valuation [18]. - Current inventory turnover days exceed 900 days, far above the target of 300 days, indicating a lengthy clearance process ahead [19]. - Price stabilization signals are absent, with Moutai's price still significantly below the target [20]. - Demand transformation is lacking, with the share of young consumers and low-alcohol products not meeting necessary thresholds [22]. Historical Context - The liquor industry has experienced two major crises in the past 30 years, both characterized by demand shrinkage, inventory buildup, price declines, and industry consolidation [27]. - The first crisis (1998-2004) was driven by external shocks and resulted in a prolonged adjustment period, while the second crisis (2012-2015) was more structural, leading to a quicker recovery [30]. - Current conditions suggest that the ongoing crisis is deeper and more complex than previous ones, with a projected bottoming period extending to around 2027 [31]. International Comparisons - Global spirits industries have faced similar crises, with recovery paths providing valuable insights for the Chinese liquor sector [34]. - The Scottish whisky industry, for example, successfully managed inventory through production cuts and market expansion, contrasting with the current reliance on price cuts in the Chinese market [36]. - Japanese sake underwent significant transformation through product innovation and cultural integration, highlighting the need for the Chinese liquor industry to adapt to changing consumer preferences [39][41]. Future Outlook - The Chinese liquor industry must meet specific conditions to confirm a bottom, including reducing inventory turnover to below 300 days and increasing the share of low-alcohol products to 30% [48]. - A successful transformation will require a focus on product innovation, digital channel development, and cultural engagement to attract younger consumers [49]. - The industry must avoid the pitfalls of prioritizing scale over value, as past strategies of simple expansion and price cuts have proven unsustainable [50].

Core Insights - The competition in the Hebei liquor market is shifting from a dominance of strong aroma liquor to a multi-aroma battle, with the clear aroma segment gaining significant traction led by Fenjiu [1][5][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The clear aroma segment, spearheaded by Fenjiu, has achieved approximately 3 billion yuan in sales in Hebei for 2024, with the "Glass Fen" series contributing 80%-90% of this volume [1][3] - The "Qinghua Fen" product has successfully penetrated the mid-to-high-end business banquet market, indicating a structural shift from volume to value products in the clear aroma category [1][3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The clear aroma category's growth has opened market opportunities for other brands like Baofeng and Jinyang Wang, which are now targeting Hebei as a key battleground for national expansion [3][4] - The stronghold of the strong aroma segment, led by Luzhou Laojiao, remains significant with over 5 billion yuan in market size, particularly with the 38-degree Guojiao 1573 being a top choice for high-end business events [5][7] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Local strong aroma brands are facing challenges from consumer diversion and growth pressures, prompting them to explore clear aroma products, as seen with Congtai Liquor's investment in producing clear aroma liquor [5][7] - The market's evolution reflects a broader trend in the national liquor industry, with the competition now focusing on price segments, consumer acceptance in various scenarios, and strategic positioning of local brands against national players [9][10]