Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [22]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is experiencing a marginal recovery in demand while supply continues to clear out, with expectations of a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the holiday period [5][6]. - High-end products like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing better turnover, while mid-range products are performing relatively well in certain regions [5]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies with stable performance, those undergoing significant transformation, and those with quality products that are clearing out inventory [5]. Industry Basic Data - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 31,219.12 billion [2]. - The circulating market value stands at 31,214.28 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the liquor industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -4.0%, -6.4%, and -15.6% respectively [3]. - The relative performance compared to the benchmark index is -7.2% over 1 month, -24.9% over 6 months, and -31.1% over 12 months [3]. Sales Performance Insights - During the holiday period, liquor sales are expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations [5]. - High-end gifting demand has improved slightly before the holidays, while mid-range business group purchases are still under pressure [5]. - Regional performance varies, with provinces like Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results [5]. Brand Performance - Moutai and Wuliangye are performing well, while other brands are experiencing significant declines in sales [5][6]. - The report highlights that brands like Gujing and Jiuzi are expected to confirm performance bottoms and drive growth through market share [5]. Channel and Inventory Insights - Channel inventory is slightly decreasing, with supply and demand remaining in a tight balance [5]. - The report anticipates that Q4 will focus on inventory digestion, with price stability expected despite some downward pressure [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with low performance risk, those confirming performance bottoms, and those undergoing deep transformations [5]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Moutai, Fenjiu, and Gujing, with a focus on dividend yield for Wuliangye and monitoring the performance of Laojiao [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food sector, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - The report highlights the need to pay attention to the white liquor sector, which may face pressure in the second quarter, suggesting a focus on leading brands with strong market positions [16][29]. Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is currently under pressure, with a recommendation to prioritize leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for mid-term investments [16][29]. - Recent policies regarding public receptions may impact white liquor consumption, but the overall effect is expected to be limited due to a shift from government to business consumption since 2016 [7][16]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for mid-term positioning in leading brands [4][16]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a continuation of the new consumption trend, with a focus on potential catalysts in food categories, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jin Zai Foods, New Dairy, Anji Foods, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage new retail opportunities [2][29]. Market Performance - From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while non-dairy beverages and other liquor categories saw gains of 8.96% and 7.93%, respectively, with white liquor declining by 2.80% [2][35]. - Specific stocks such as Tianyoude Liquor and Huazhi Liquor showed positive performance, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu experienced declines [3][39]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key white liquor brands, indicating stable prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with slight fluctuations noted [15][55].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Baijiu and Snack Food Sectors Baijiu Industry Insights - Moutai prices have slightly rebounded, with expected batch prices fluctuating between 2,100 and 2,200 RMB, and an increase in non-standard products leading to a slight rise in total inventory [1][3] - Wuliangye's batch prices are above 920-925 RMB, but transaction volumes remain low, indicating low channel inventory [5][9] - Fenjiu is optimistic about growth, focusing on mid-tier products, with expectations for significant single-digit growth in marketing and profits for 2025 [1][10][13] - The overall baijiu industry is showing signs of cyclical adjustment, with a decrease in the number of large-scale enterprises and a slight increase in sales but a decline in profits [1][14] - Strict regulations on government consumption have led to a significant decline in business demand, with expectations of nearly double-digit declines [2][7] Snack Food Sector Insights - The snack food industry is still in an expansion phase, with stable single-store profit models and strong franchisee investment returns, averaging about two years [1][18][19] - The number of stores for brands like Mixue Ice City is increasing, with nearly 2,000 new stores opened in the first five months of 2025 [1][16][19] - The zero-sugar snack segment is experiencing rapid growth, with brands like Salted Fish expanding their product lines and improving profit margins through e-commerce channels [1][23] - The overall snack food market is projected to grow, with significant opportunities for companies with strong brands or continuous product innovation [1][31] Key Market Trends and Challenges - The baijiu market is facing challenges due to a decline in government consumption and overall economic conditions, leading to a cautious outlook from distributors [2][8] - Snack food brands are leveraging e-commerce and social media to enhance brand visibility and sales, indicating a shift towards online retail [20][22] - The competitive landscape is tightening, with top brands maintaining strong market positions while mid-tier brands struggle to sustain profitability [21][22] Recommendations for Investors - Focus on high-end baijiu brands and those with strong channel advantages, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, as they show better performance and execution capabilities [1][15] - Monitor the performance of snack food brands in the context of ongoing market expansion and franchisee confidence, as these factors could present investment opportunities [1][32] - Consider the impact of regulatory changes and economic conditions on traditional industries, particularly in the baijiu sector, when making investment decisions [1][7][14]