12月11日，市场震荡调整，沪指高开低走，创业板指冲高回落，此前一度涨超1%。截至收盘，中证食 品饮料指数(930653.CSI)跌0.82%。 相关ETF方面，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）成交额超1400万元。 资金流向方面，截至12月11日，该ETF连续3日获资金净流入，累计"吸金"超3800万元。该ETF最新流 通份额为79.02亿份，最新流通规模为54.18亿元。 同日，五粮液发布公告称，公司召开第七届董事会2025年第6次会议，审议通过《2025年中期利润分配 方案》，同意以公司现有总股本38.82亿股为基数，向全体股东每10股派现金25.78元（含税），合计分 配100.07亿元（含税），不送红股，不以公积金转增股本。股权登记日为2025年12月17日，除权除息日 为2025年12月18日。 华创证券指出，2026年白酒周期将加速筑底，同时认为：行业经历近年持续洗礼，底层刚需的托底效应 已显现，以啤酒、乳业、餐饮供应链为代表的传统赛道龙头企业依靠经营稳扎稳打，强化全产业链竞争 力，加速收获市场份额，一旦消费需求在明年回升改善，龙头企业有望迎来更大的反转弹性。 东方证券指出，食品饮料基本面拐点 ...

近日，茅台批价回落，继续压制板块表现，贵州茅台股价震荡走低，考验1400元支撑位。重仓白酒龙头 的食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）净值也跟随走低，但获得资金连续4日净申购，12月8日净申购7600万 元。 临近年底，不少机构着眼次年景气度开始布局2026年行情，食品饮料作为低预期+低估值+低仓位+高股 息行业，连续调整近四年，具备反转潜力，或吸引资金底部布局修复行情。 贵州茅台作为白酒龙头，通常被不少投资者视为大消费板块的"风向标"，也是外资重仓的中国稀缺资 产。但受到地产基建周期拖累，白酒商务需求连同政务需求，双双走低。 从择时维度，临近年末基金基准业绩排名，随着科技成长持仓资金锁定利润，而大消费主动权益基金有 望风格回归、赢得部分资金回流，也有助于消费龙头的股价企稳。岁末年初，元旦、春节也是消费旺 季，部分资金或提前布局"跨年行情"。 展望后市，华创证券董广阳判断2026年白酒周期将加速筑底，同时认为：行业经历近年持续洗礼，底层 刚需的托底效应已显现，以啤酒、乳业、餐饮供应链为代表的传统赛道龙头企业依靠经营稳扎稳打，强 化全产业链竞争力，加速收获市场份额，一旦消费需求在明年回升改善，龙头企业有望迎来更 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Wuliangye (000858.SZ) will adjust the pricing strategy for its eighth-generation product starting next year, maintaining the factory price at 1019 yuan per bottle while offering a discount that brings the effective price down to around 900 yuan per bottle, potentially as low as 800 yuan with additional support policies [1][3][4] - The current phenomenon of price inversion is prevalent in the liquor industry, with online prices for the eighth-generation Wuliangye ranging from 820 to 850 yuan per bottle, including platform subsidies [3] - The liquor industry has experienced a price increase trend from the second half of 2023 to the first half of 2024, with several major brands raising their factory prices, including Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao [3][4] Group 2 - Wuliangye's pricing policy is seen as a practical decision to alleviate financial and inventory pressures on distributors, allowing them to focus on enhancing consumer experiences rather than engaging in price manipulation [4] - Analysts suggest that the liquor industry is at a critical juncture, transitioning into a "cycle bottom" phase, with market sentiment shifting from pessimism to a focus on underlying value [4][5] - Forecasts indicate that the second quarter of 2026 may see stabilization in sales, with a potential turning point in the industry's fundamentals by the third quarter [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the liquor industry indicates that companies are entering a phase of pressure relief and clearing, with future expectations centered on performance recovery [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The liquor sector's total revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders down by 6.7% [2] - In Q3 2025, the liquor sector's total revenue fell by 18.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 21.9% [2] - The macroeconomic environment is affecting demand recovery, particularly in high-end and mid-high-end liquor segments, which rely on a recovery from deflation [1][2] Group 2: Sales and Revenue Trends - The sales performance of liquor companies is under pressure, with many experiencing a decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025 [2] - The pre-receipt balance for liquor companies is at a near two-year low, indicating potential challenges in future revenue realization [2] - High-end liquor companies are adjusting their product structures, while mid-high-end liquor sales are facing temporary pressure [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in Q1-Q3 2025 was 82.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2025 saw a margin of 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points [3] - Sales expense ratios for most liquor companies increased year-on-year in Q3 2025, although some companies improved their ratios due to better cost control [3] - The profit growth rates for high-end liquor (-0.5%) outperformed those of mid-high-end (-7.6%) and real estate liquor (-34.7%), indicating a trend of increasing cost control among leading companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is currently in the bottoming phase of its third major cycle in the past thirty years, with significant similarities to the period from 2012 to 2016 [1] Industry Summary - On October 9, the three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3933.97 points, up 1.32%. However, the baijiu sector closed at 2241.33 points, down 0.46%, with 18 baijiu stocks declining [1] - Major baijiu stocks experienced the following closing prices and declines: - Kweichow Moutai at 1436.78 CNY/share, down 0.50% - Wuliangye at 121.16 CNY/share, down 0.26% - Shanxi Fenjiu at 190.39 CNY/share, down 1.87% - Luzhou Laojiao at 129.86 CNY/share, down 1.56% - Yanghe at 67.61 CNY/share, down 0.49% [1] Company Performance Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates that the fundamental bottom for the baijiu industry may appear in the third quarter of 2025, with the second half of this year expected to be the most challenging period for the financial performance of baijiu companies [1] - The earliest potential turning point for sales activity is projected for the first quarter of 2026, influenced by factors such as inventory, pricing, policy impacts, recovery of consumption scenarios, and the financial performance of listed companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the holiday season is expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations, although there are some positive indicators in specific segments [3][5]. Group 1: Liquor Sales Performance - Liquor sales showed marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday but gradually slowed down afterward, with an overall expected decline of around 20% [3]. - High-end products, particularly from Moutai and Wuliangye, demonstrated good turnover, while mid-range products like Wuliang Chun and Honghua Lang saw double-digit growth in certain regions [3][4]. - Demand for large gatherings remains relatively strong, with positive growth reported in Jiangsu, Henan, and Sichuan, particularly in the mid-price range [3]. Group 2: Regional Performance - Performance varies significantly by province, with Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results, while other regions like Hunan and Anhui met expectations with declines of over 20% [3][4]. - Feedback from various regions indicates that while some areas experienced a decline, the overall performance was not as poor as initially anticipated [3]. Group 3: Channel Inventory and Pricing - Channel inventory is experiencing slight depletion but remains at a high level, with a balance between incoming and outgoing shipments expected to continue into Q4 2025 and H1 2026 [5]. - Pricing remains stable with slight increases, although there is anticipated downward pressure in the coming months due to seasonal factors and promotional activities [5]. Group 4: Company Strategies and Market Dynamics - Companies are generally reducing their promotional spending, focusing more on consumer-end products rather than channel products, with a notable shift towards secondary products [6]. - Despite reduced spending, leading brands are still managing to increase their market share in specific segments, indicating a competitive market landscape [6]. - The overall collection and shipment progress for companies is lagging by over 10% compared to last year, with some brands maintaining their targets while others are struggling [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The current liquor cycle is seen as entering a bottoming phase, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower performance risks, those expected to confirm performance bottoms, and those undergoing significant transformations [7]. - Specific companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are highlighted as priority investments due to their resilience [7]. - Attention is also drawn to companies like Yanghe and Jiuzi Li Du, which are undergoing changes that could lead to future growth [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [22]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is experiencing a marginal recovery in demand while supply continues to clear out, with expectations of a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the holiday period [5][6]. - High-end products like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing better turnover, while mid-range products are performing relatively well in certain regions [5]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies with stable performance, those undergoing significant transformation, and those with quality products that are clearing out inventory [5]. Industry Basic Data - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 31,219.12 billion [2]. - The circulating market value stands at 31,214.28 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the liquor industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -4.0%, -6.4%, and -15.6% respectively [3]. - The relative performance compared to the benchmark index is -7.2% over 1 month, -24.9% over 6 months, and -31.1% over 12 months [3]. Sales Performance Insights - During the holiday period, liquor sales are expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations [5]. - High-end gifting demand has improved slightly before the holidays, while mid-range business group purchases are still under pressure [5]. - Regional performance varies, with provinces like Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results [5]. Brand Performance - Moutai and Wuliangye are performing well, while other brands are experiencing significant declines in sales [5][6]. - The report highlights that brands like Gujing and Jiuzi are expected to confirm performance bottoms and drive growth through market share [5]. Channel and Inventory Insights - Channel inventory is slightly decreasing, with supply and demand remaining in a tight balance [5]. - The report anticipates that Q4 will focus on inventory digestion, with price stability expected despite some downward pressure [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with low performance risk, those confirming performance bottoms, and those undergoing deep transformations [5]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Moutai, Fenjiu, and Gujing, with a focus on dividend yield for Wuliangye and monitoring the performance of Laojiao [5].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a gradual supply-demand turning point, with structural highlights emerging [4][6] - The overall market performance shows a total market value of 48,501.92 billion, with a circulating market value of 47,287.20 billion [2] - The absolute performance over the last 12 months is 25.0%, while the relative performance has decreased by 17.6% [2] Group 2: Wine Sector Insights - Demand for wine has improved on a month-on-month basis, although there is still a year-on-year decline [4][6] - Wine companies are pragmatically adjusting growth targets, focusing on channel health and providing support to improve channel profits [4][6] - The report suggests paying attention to the health of channels and the quality of receivables as companies are expected to release operational pressure in the second half of the year [4][6] Group 3: Consumer Goods Sector Insights - Traditional leading brands in the consumer goods sector are emerging from the bottom, with clear trends in industry prosperity [4][6] - The dairy industry is facing ongoing supply-demand contradictions, with expectations for gradual bottoming out in 2026 [6][9] - Companies like Chongqing Beer are exploring new growth avenues while maintaining stable operational strategies [6][9] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on the bottom-catalyzing of the wine sector and selective investment in consumer goods based on industry trends [10][12] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong performance and those undergoing significant transformations, such as Moutai and Gujing [10][12] - In the consumer goods sector, strategic recommendations include investing in yeast products and the yellow wine market, which is expected to see significant growth [10][12]