Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 36.011 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 16.523 billion yuan, a 7.72% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, growing 6.15% year-on-year [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from high-end and other wines reached 26.53 billion yuan and 9.34 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.40%. Sales volume increased by 13% and 5%, while the price per ton rose by 1% and 4%. Notably, the mid-tier products showed rapid growth, while some premium products experienced a slowdown [2]. - For Q1 2025, the revenue from Fenjiu and other wines was 1.6212 billion yuan and 26.8 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.23% and a decline of 15.49% [2]. - In terms of regional performance, the company achieved revenues of 13.5 billion yuan and 22.37 billion yuan from domestic and international markets in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81%. For Q1 2025, revenues were 6.083 billion yuan and 10.396 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.70% and 7.18% [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin improved to 76.20% in 2024 and 78.80% in Q1 2025, with year-on-year increases of 0.9 and 1.3 percentage points, primarily due to product mix enhancement [3]. - The tax and additional fees, sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for 2024 were 16.48%, 10.35%, 4.02%, and 0.41%, showing a decrease in tax and additional fees by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. In Q1 2025, these ratios were 13.7%, 9.2%, 1.8%, and 0.2%, with an increase in tax and additional fees by 0.4 percentage points [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 34.03%, increasing by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while for Q1 2025, it was 40.28%, reflecting a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth rates of 10%, 12%, and 12% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 10%, 13%, and 13% for the same period. The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 11.04, 12.45, and 14.12 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18x, 16x, and 14x. A target price of 220.8 yuan is set for 2025, with a recommendation to "accumulate" [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to Shanxi Fenjiu, with a target price of 220.8 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 204.10 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with steady growth anticipated in 2025. The total revenue for 2024 reached 36.011 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.243 billion CNY, up 17.29% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 16.523 billion CNY, a 7.72% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 6.648 billion CNY, growing by 6.15% year-on-year [4][5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 36.011 billion CNY and a net profit of 12.243 billion CNY. For Q1 2025, revenue was 16.523 billion CNY and net profit was 6.648 billion CNY [4][8]. - The revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 10%, 12%, and 12%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 10%, 13%, and 13% [7][8]. Product Structure and Market Performance - The product structure continues to upgrade, with mid-to-high-end liquor and other products generating revenues of 26.53 billion CNY and 9.34 billion CNY in 2024, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.40% [5]. - The company has a balanced development in both domestic and international markets, with domestic revenue of 13.5 billion CNY and international revenue of 22.37 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81% [5]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 76.20%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the improved product mix. The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 40.28%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. - The company’s operating profit for 2024 was 16.539 billion CNY, with a projected operating profit of 18.198 billion CNY for 2025 [10][11]. Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 10.04 CNY, with projections of 11.04 CNY for 2025 and 12.45 CNY for 2026. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 18.36x for 2024 and 18.49x for 2025 [8][11].