产品结构上移带动毛利率提升，一季度销售费用投放增加净利率有所下滑。2024/2025Q1 公司毛利率为 76.20%/78.80% ， 同比+0.9/+1.3pct，主因产品结构提升。2024 年税金及附加/销售/管理/研发费用率分 别为16.48%/10.35%/4.02%/0.41% ， 同比-1.8/+0.3/+0.3/+0.1pct,2025Q1 税金及附加/销售/管理/研发费用 率分别为13.7%/9.2%/1.8%/0.2%，同比+0.4/+1.8/-0.2/+0.1pct，一季度销售费用率提升主因市场竞争加 剧。2024/2025Q1 公司净利率为34.03%/40.28%，同比+1.3/-0.6pct。2025Q1 末合同负债达58.2 亿元，同 比+2.3 亿元，环比-28.5 亿元。 投资建议：预计2025-2027 年收入增速分别为10%/12%/12%，归母净利润增速分别为10%/13%/13%， EPS 分别为 11.04/12.45/14.12 元，对应当前股价PE 分别为18x/16x/14x，按照2025 年20X 给予目标价 220.8元，给予"增持"评级。 风险提示:食品安 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to Shanxi Fenjiu, with a target price of 220.8 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 204.10 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with steady growth anticipated in 2025. The total revenue for 2024 reached 36.011 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.243 billion CNY, up 17.29% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 16.523 billion CNY, a 7.72% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 6.648 billion CNY, growing by 6.15% year-on-year [4][5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 36.011 billion CNY and a net profit of 12.243 billion CNY. For Q1 2025, revenue was 16.523 billion CNY and net profit was 6.648 billion CNY [4][8]. - The revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 10%, 12%, and 12%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 10%, 13%, and 13% [7][8]. Product Structure and Market Performance - The product structure continues to upgrade, with mid-to-high-end liquor and other products generating revenues of 26.53 billion CNY and 9.34 billion CNY in 2024, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.40% [5]. - The company has a balanced development in both domestic and international markets, with domestic revenue of 13.5 billion CNY and international revenue of 22.37 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81% [5]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 76.20%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the improved product mix. The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 40.28%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. - The company’s operating profit for 2024 was 16.539 billion CNY, with a projected operating profit of 18.198 billion CNY for 2025 [10][11]. Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 10.04 CNY, with projections of 11.04 CNY for 2025 and 12.45 CNY for 2026. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 18.36x for 2024 and 18.49x for 2025 [8][11].