白酒行业三季报发布结束后，市场对于白酒行业关注度陡然增加，段永平、张坤等重新加仓茅台。复盘600519.SH持股人变化，2013-2015年茅台股上涨 的交易红利基本和内资没关系，内资在外资的"攻势"下撤退，当然也没吃到股价的翻倍。2015年茅台股东大会间隙，在食品饮料行业长期位居新财富第 一的分析师询问季克良：" 季老，您怎么看待茅台现在低迷的价格？ " 。 2013年起大幅加仓的有奥本海默基金、新加坡政府投资基金GIC以及传说中的李 录易方达香港席位。2015年诞生了太多"茅台英雄"，被誉为"中国芒格"的李录凭借贵州茅台打响了自己"价值投资"招牌的第一枪。 市场对茅台的偏爱或许可以用2013-2015年基金经理FOMO的肌肉记忆来解释，毕竟谁不想当公募的"顶级流量明星"。当下市场买入观点也比较明确： 1）茅台批价不断接近1499，市场认为越接近1499元/瓶出厂价，价格底部支撑力越发坚固；市场出现茅台批价下行、茅台股价上涨反常现象； 2）五粮液单季度业绩下滑50%，白酒行业出现真正意义上的行业出清，市场认为业绩出清接近尾声，期待2026年行业回归向上通道； 3）25年禁酒令的影响将逐步被淡化； 4）白酒行 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moutai is considered a strong stock due to its ability to withstand economic cycles and its long-term stable growth, making it a preferred asset for beating inflation [2][15]. Group 1: Moutai's Resilience and Growth - Moutai has demonstrated its ability to lead the high-end liquor industry through economic cycles, showcasing its resistance to downturns and its capacity for long-term growth [2][15]. - Investors have developed a sense of complacency regarding Moutai's performance, expecting consistent growth at a moderate rate, with many believing that significant downward adjustments in performance are unlikely [2]. - The sustainability of Moutai's high dividends and return on equity (ROE) is crucial, as is the continuous upward trend in profit margins, both of which rely on price increases [2]. Group 2: Inflation Resistance Re-evaluation - The perception that essential consumer goods can resist inflation is challenged, as many do not outperform inflation rates, and their stock returns may not exceed broader market indices [4]. - Moutai's pricing trends are closely tied to GDP growth, indicating a dual characteristic of cyclical bubbles and long-term inflation [7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current white liquor market is experiencing a "volume and price decline," with supply exceeding demand expected in the coming years due to previously added production capacity [9]. - Long-term demand remains unpredictable, but maintaining current demand levels is a core assumption for future projections [9]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The white liquor industry is expected to transition from business to consumer demand, with the potential for a new growth cycle as wealth effects spread through society [13]. - Historical patterns suggest that Moutai was once a common choice for family celebrations, indicating a latent demand that could be reactivated [12]. Group 5: Moutai's Pricing Strategy - Moutai's pricing strategy is pivotal, with price increases directly impacting company performance, and the introduction of differentiated products helps stabilize prices [19][20]. - The revenue structure of Moutai has diversified, with a significant portion now coming from non-standard products, which are expected to contribute to higher profit margins [26]. Group 6: Market Reactions and Performance - Despite declining prices in the market, Moutai's stock has not followed suit, with some investors viewing the current price as an attractive entry point based on the stability of channel profits [29]. - There is a noted discrepancy between reported performance and actual market demand, indicating potential risks for future earnings adjustments [30].

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the liquor industry indicates that companies are entering a phase of pressure relief and clearing, with future expectations centered on performance recovery [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The liquor sector's total revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders down by 6.7% [2] - In Q3 2025, the liquor sector's total revenue fell by 18.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 21.9% [2] - The macroeconomic environment is affecting demand recovery, particularly in high-end and mid-high-end liquor segments, which rely on a recovery from deflation [1][2] Group 2: Sales and Revenue Trends - The sales performance of liquor companies is under pressure, with many experiencing a decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025 [2] - The pre-receipt balance for liquor companies is at a near two-year low, indicating potential challenges in future revenue realization [2] - High-end liquor companies are adjusting their product structures, while mid-high-end liquor sales are facing temporary pressure [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in Q1-Q3 2025 was 82.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2025 saw a margin of 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points [3] - Sales expense ratios for most liquor companies increased year-on-year in Q3 2025, although some companies improved their ratios due to better cost control [3] - The profit growth rates for high-end liquor (-0.5%) outperformed those of mid-high-end (-7.6%) and real estate liquor (-34.7%), indicating a trend of increasing cost control among leading companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 8.96 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.90 billion yuan for Q3 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.1% in revenue but a decrease of 1.4% in net profit, indicating resilience in a challenging market environment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 32.92 billion yuan and a net profit of 11.40 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0% and 0.5% respectively [1] - In Q3 2025, the company recorded sales receipts of 8.34 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, and a net operating cash flow of 3.00 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year, indicating short-term cash flow pressure [1] - As of the end of Q3, the company's contract liabilities stood at 5.78 billion yuan, up 5.5% year-on-year, suggesting a healthy level of prepayments despite cash flow challenges [1] Group 2: Product and Market Analysis - The company’s revenue from Fenjiu and other liquor categories in Q3 2025 was 8.78 billion yuan and 0.16 billion yuan respectively, with Fenjiu showing a year-on-year growth of 5.0% while other categories declined by 28.6% [2] - The company’s wholesale and direct sales revenue in Q3 2025 was 8.26 billion yuan and 0.69 billion yuan respectively, with wholesale slightly declining by 0.4% and direct sales significantly increasing by 124.9% year-on-year [2] - Revenue from provincial and out-of-province markets in Q3 2025 was 2.27 billion yuan and 6.67 billion yuan respectively, with provincial revenue decreasing by 35.2% while out-of-province revenue increased by 31.1% [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The company achieved a gross margin of 74.6% in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating effective cost management [3] - The main tax rate, sales expense rate, and management expense rate for Q3 2025 were 16.6%, 10.2%, and 3.9% respectively, with the tax rate increasing by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year while sales and management expense rates slightly decreased [3] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 32.4%, yet the overall profitability remains stable [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain revenue growth and continue to capture market share in the out-of-province markets, with a positive trend anticipated for Q4 2025 [3] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to 10.05 yuan, 10.69 yuan, and 11.65 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18.7 times for 2025, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a focus on sectors with good performance and potential recovery in demand [3]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is experiencing a gradual improvement in sales dynamics, with a continued focus on clearing inventory. The report suggests that when performance no longer declines, it will signal a potential recovery in stock prices [7][13]. - The food sector shows a divergence in performance, with new consumption categories maintaining good momentum while traditional categories face weaker demand. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery in traditional consumption [21][31]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Sales dynamics in Q3 improved compared to May-June, but the report anticipates continued inventory clearance with a double-digit year-on-year decline expected. The demand from government and business sectors remains under pressure, while the banquet and mass consumption markets are relatively stable [7][13]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to see varied performance, with Moutai projected to achieve a 4% increase in revenue year-on-year, while Wuliangye may experience an 8% decline [14][16]. Food Sector - The overall demand environment in Q3 was relatively weak, with retail sales growth slowing down. However, sectors like snacks and beverages continue to show good performance, while traditional categories like seasonings and beer remain subdued [21][31]. - The report highlights that raw material costs are generally declining, but the trend is slowing down. Packaging prices have increased, impacting profit margins across various segments [24][25]. - Specific companies such as Yili and Mengniu are facing growth pressures, while new dairy companies are expected to maintain strong growth due to structural improvements [31][35]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors with good performance, such as snacks and beverages, while also keeping an eye on traditional consumption recovery. Specific stock recommendations include West Wheat Foods in the snack sector and leading liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [10][11].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The performance of the liquor sector improved during the National Day holiday, with stable demand for banquets and better sales in the mass price range. The high-end and mid-low price segments performed relatively well, while the sub-high-end segment faced pressure. Overall, the performance aligns with market expectations, indicating a gradual bottoming out in sales and performance for liquor companies [3][13] - The food and beverage sector index (801120.SL) experienced a slight decline of -0.15% this week, ranking 18th among 30 first-level industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.36 percentage points. The current dynamic PE for the industry is 21.51 [7][16] Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Observation - The liquor sales during the National Day holiday showed a general improvement compared to previous months, with stable banquet demand. Top brands like Moutai maintained prices above 1800 RMB, while second and third-tier brands faced price adjustments and inventory pressures. The overall performance is consistent with capital market expectations, indicating a gradual recovery phase for liquor companies [3][13] Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a mixed performance, with 10 sub-sectors, excluding other alcoholic beverages and liquor, showing increases. The highest gain was in soft drinks, which rose by 4.86% [7][16] Key Company Announcements - Wuliangye announced a stock buyback plan, acquiring 6,273,266 shares, representing 0.16% of its total shares, for a total amount of approximately 800 million RMB [22] - Jinsiyuan reported a significant revenue decline of nearly 30% in Q2, aligning with market sales trends [22] Important Industry News - The liquor industry is undergoing a transformation characterized by slower sales, channel restructuring, and increased differentiation, laying the groundwork for long-term development [25]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities emphasizes the expectation for the liquor industry to undergo a clearing process, focusing on identifying key contradictions and the visibility of future performance recovery, prioritizing companies that are earlier in their turning points and have leading growth elasticity [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, the liquor sector's total operating revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 0.9% [1] - In Q2 2025, the liquor sector's total operating revenue declined by 4.7% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company dropping by 7.3% [1] - The macroeconomic environment in Q2 2025 saw significant impacts on business scenarios, with high-end and sub-high-end liquor demand experiencing a downward trend [1][2] Group 2: Sales and Revenue Trends - The revenue growth rate of most liquor companies has accelerated decline, with pre-receivable balances at near two-year lows, indicating ongoing channel repayment pressure [2] - The second-tier sub-high-end liquor companies have strengthened shipment control since Q2 2024, leading to a narrowing decline in revenue year-on-year in Q2 2025 [2] Group 3: Profitability and Margin Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the gross margins for high-end liquor, sub-high-end liquor, and regional liquor companies decreased by 0.5, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points respectively, indicating pressure on product structure and pricing [3] - The profit growth rates for high-end liquor (5.49%) outperformed sub-high-end (-3.22%) and real estate liquor (-24.90%), reflecting challenges in product structure and sales conversion [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 36.01 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 12.24 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.29% [3][9] - The company is focusing on enhancing channel management capabilities and accelerating market response through organizational restructuring, which is expected to improve performance in 2024 and beyond [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a gross margin of 76.2% and a net profit margin of 34%, with respective year-on-year increases of 0.9 and 1.31 percentage points [3] - The company achieved a total revenue of 4.65 billion yuan in Q4 2024, which is a decrease of 10.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of 893 million yuan, down 11.32% [4] - The company expects to see revenue growth in both high-end and other liquor categories, with projected revenues of 26.53 billion yuan and 9.34 billion yuan respectively for 2024 [5] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 39.68 billion yuan, 43.78 billion yuan, and 50.48 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.17%, 10.34%, and 15.32% [11] - The projected net profit for the same years is 13.51 billion yuan, 14.94 billion yuan, and 17.45 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.32%, 10.63%, and 16.76% [11][12]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 36.011 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 16.523 billion yuan, a 7.72% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, growing 6.15% year-on-year [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from high-end and other wines reached 26.53 billion yuan and 9.34 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.40%. Sales volume increased by 13% and 5%, while the price per ton rose by 1% and 4%. Notably, the mid-tier products showed rapid growth, while some premium products experienced a slowdown [2]. - For Q1 2025, the revenue from Fenjiu and other wines was 1.6212 billion yuan and 26.8 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.23% and a decline of 15.49% [2]. - In terms of regional performance, the company achieved revenues of 13.5 billion yuan and 22.37 billion yuan from domestic and international markets in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81%. For Q1 2025, revenues were 6.083 billion yuan and 10.396 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.70% and 7.18% [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin improved to 76.20% in 2024 and 78.80% in Q1 2025, with year-on-year increases of 0.9 and 1.3 percentage points, primarily due to product mix enhancement [3]. - The tax and additional fees, sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for 2024 were 16.48%, 10.35%, 4.02%, and 0.41%, showing a decrease in tax and additional fees by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. In Q1 2025, these ratios were 13.7%, 9.2%, 1.8%, and 0.2%, with an increase in tax and additional fees by 0.4 percentage points [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 34.03%, increasing by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while for Q1 2025, it was 40.28%, reflecting a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth rates of 10%, 12%, and 12% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 10%, 13%, and 13% for the same period. The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 11.04, 12.45, and 14.12 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18x, 16x, and 14x. A target price of 220.8 yuan is set for 2025, with a recommendation to "accumulate" [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to Shanxi Fenjiu, with a target price of 220.8 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 204.10 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with steady growth anticipated in 2025. The total revenue for 2024 reached 36.011 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.243 billion CNY, up 17.29% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 16.523 billion CNY, a 7.72% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 6.648 billion CNY, growing by 6.15% year-on-year [4][5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 36.011 billion CNY and a net profit of 12.243 billion CNY. For Q1 2025, revenue was 16.523 billion CNY and net profit was 6.648 billion CNY [4][8]. - The revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 10%, 12%, and 12%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 10%, 13%, and 13% [7][8]. Product Structure and Market Performance - The product structure continues to upgrade, with mid-to-high-end liquor and other products generating revenues of 26.53 billion CNY and 9.34 billion CNY in 2024, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.40% [5]. - The company has a balanced development in both domestic and international markets, with domestic revenue of 13.5 billion CNY and international revenue of 22.37 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81% [5]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 76.20%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the improved product mix. The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 40.28%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. - The company’s operating profit for 2024 was 16.539 billion CNY, with a projected operating profit of 18.198 billion CNY for 2025 [10][11]. Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 10.04 CNY, with projections of 11.04 CNY for 2025 and 12.45 CNY for 2026. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 18.36x for 2024 and 18.49x for 2025 [8][11].