Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a focus on sectors with good performance and potential recovery in demand [3]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is experiencing a gradual improvement in sales dynamics, with a continued focus on clearing inventory. The report suggests that when performance no longer declines, it will signal a potential recovery in stock prices [7][13]. - The food sector shows a divergence in performance, with new consumption categories maintaining good momentum while traditional categories face weaker demand. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery in traditional consumption [21][31]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Sales dynamics in Q3 improved compared to May-June, but the report anticipates continued inventory clearance with a double-digit year-on-year decline expected. The demand from government and business sectors remains under pressure, while the banquet and mass consumption markets are relatively stable [7][13]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to see varied performance, with Moutai projected to achieve a 4% increase in revenue year-on-year, while Wuliangye may experience an 8% decline [14][16]. Food Sector - The overall demand environment in Q3 was relatively weak, with retail sales growth slowing down. However, sectors like snacks and beverages continue to show good performance, while traditional categories like seasonings and beer remain subdued [21][31]. - The report highlights that raw material costs are generally declining, but the trend is slowing down. Packaging prices have increased, impacting profit margins across various segments [24][25]. - Specific companies such as Yili and Mengniu are facing growth pressures, while new dairy companies are expected to maintain strong growth due to structural improvements [31][35]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors with good performance, such as snacks and beverages, while also keeping an eye on traditional consumption recovery. Specific stock recommendations include West Wheat Foods in the snack sector and leading liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [10][11].

证券研究报告：食品饮料|行业周报 发布时间：2025-10-13 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 17022.92 | | 52 | 周最高 | 19550.64 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最低 | 16379.5 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《IFBH（6603.HK）：椰子水空间广 阔，公司产品市场品牌端持续加码、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities emphasizes the expectation for the liquor industry to undergo a clearing process, focusing on identifying key contradictions and the visibility of future performance recovery, prioritizing companies that are earlier in their turning points and have leading growth elasticity [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, the liquor sector's total operating revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 0.9% [1] - In Q2 2025, the liquor sector's total operating revenue declined by 4.7% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company dropping by 7.3% [1] - The macroeconomic environment in Q2 2025 saw significant impacts on business scenarios, with high-end and sub-high-end liquor demand experiencing a downward trend [1][2] Group 2: Sales and Revenue Trends - The revenue growth rate of most liquor companies has accelerated decline, with pre-receivable balances at near two-year lows, indicating ongoing channel repayment pressure [2] - The second-tier sub-high-end liquor companies have strengthened shipment control since Q2 2024, leading to a narrowing decline in revenue year-on-year in Q2 2025 [2] Group 3: Profitability and Margin Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the gross margins for high-end liquor, sub-high-end liquor, and regional liquor companies decreased by 0.5, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points respectively, indicating pressure on product structure and pricing [3] - The profit growth rates for high-end liquor (5.49%) outperformed sub-high-end (-3.22%) and real estate liquor (-24.90%), reflecting challenges in product structure and sales conversion [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 36.01 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 12.24 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.29% [3][9] - The company is focusing on enhancing channel management capabilities and accelerating market response through organizational restructuring, which is expected to improve performance in 2024 and beyond [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a gross margin of 76.2% and a net profit margin of 34%, with respective year-on-year increases of 0.9 and 1.31 percentage points [3] - The company achieved a total revenue of 4.65 billion yuan in Q4 2024, which is a decrease of 10.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of 893 million yuan, down 11.32% [4] - The company expects to see revenue growth in both high-end and other liquor categories, with projected revenues of 26.53 billion yuan and 9.34 billion yuan respectively for 2024 [5] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 39.68 billion yuan, 43.78 billion yuan, and 50.48 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.17%, 10.34%, and 15.32% [11] - The projected net profit for the same years is 13.51 billion yuan, 14.94 billion yuan, and 17.45 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.32%, 10.63%, and 16.76% [11][12]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 36.011 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 16.523 billion yuan, a 7.72% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, growing 6.15% year-on-year [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from high-end and other wines reached 26.53 billion yuan and 9.34 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.40%. Sales volume increased by 13% and 5%, while the price per ton rose by 1% and 4%. Notably, the mid-tier products showed rapid growth, while some premium products experienced a slowdown [2]. - For Q1 2025, the revenue from Fenjiu and other wines was 1.6212 billion yuan and 26.8 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.23% and a decline of 15.49% [2]. - In terms of regional performance, the company achieved revenues of 13.5 billion yuan and 22.37 billion yuan from domestic and international markets in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81%. For Q1 2025, revenues were 6.083 billion yuan and 10.396 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.70% and 7.18% [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin improved to 76.20% in 2024 and 78.80% in Q1 2025, with year-on-year increases of 0.9 and 1.3 percentage points, primarily due to product mix enhancement [3]. - The tax and additional fees, sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for 2024 were 16.48%, 10.35%, 4.02%, and 0.41%, showing a decrease in tax and additional fees by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. In Q1 2025, these ratios were 13.7%, 9.2%, 1.8%, and 0.2%, with an increase in tax and additional fees by 0.4 percentage points [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 34.03%, increasing by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while for Q1 2025, it was 40.28%, reflecting a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth rates of 10%, 12%, and 12% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 10%, 13%, and 13% for the same period. The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 11.04, 12.45, and 14.12 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18x, 16x, and 14x. A target price of 220.8 yuan is set for 2025, with a recommendation to "accumulate" [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to Shanxi Fenjiu, with a target price of 220.8 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 204.10 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with steady growth anticipated in 2025. The total revenue for 2024 reached 36.011 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.243 billion CNY, up 17.29% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 16.523 billion CNY, a 7.72% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 6.648 billion CNY, growing by 6.15% year-on-year [4][5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 36.011 billion CNY and a net profit of 12.243 billion CNY. For Q1 2025, revenue was 16.523 billion CNY and net profit was 6.648 billion CNY [4][8]. - The revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 10%, 12%, and 12%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 10%, 13%, and 13% [7][8]. Product Structure and Market Performance - The product structure continues to upgrade, with mid-to-high-end liquor and other products generating revenues of 26.53 billion CNY and 9.34 billion CNY in 2024, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.40% [5]. - The company has a balanced development in both domestic and international markets, with domestic revenue of 13.5 billion CNY and international revenue of 22.37 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81% [5]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 76.20%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the improved product mix. The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 40.28%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. - The company’s operating profit for 2024 was 16.539 billion CNY, with a projected operating profit of 18.198 billion CNY for 2025 [10][11]. Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 10.04 CNY, with projections of 11.04 CNY for 2025 and 12.45 CNY for 2026. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 18.36x for 2024 and 18.49x for 2025 [8][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 36.01 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.79%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.24 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.29% [3] - The company is focusing on enhancing channel management capabilities and accelerating market response through organizational restructuring, which is expected to improve performance in 2024 and beyond [9] - The company anticipates a steady growth trajectory with revenue projections of 39.68 billion yuan in 2025, 43.78 billion yuan in 2026, and 50.48 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 13.51 billion yuan, 14.94 billion yuan, and 17.45 billion yuan respectively [11][12] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 204.10 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 249 billion yuan [2] - The company has a total share capital of 1.22 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 34.2% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.34 [2] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 4.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of 893 million yuan, down 11.32% [4] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 77.36%, while the net profit margin was 19.19% [4] - The company achieved a sales cash collection of 6.45 billion yuan in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.79% [4] Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, the company expects revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor to reach 26.53 billion yuan, growing by 14.35%, while other liquor categories are projected to generate 9.34 billion yuan, up 9.40% [5] - Online e-commerce sales are anticipated to reach 2.11 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 26.22% [5] - Revenue from domestic sales is expected to be 13.50 billion yuan, while revenue from outside the province is projected at 22.37 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.72% and 13.81% respectively [5]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the focus on domestic demand due to tariff events, with food and beverage companies primarily targeting the domestic market, leading to better stock performance. It outlines four main investment themes centered on domestic circulation, highlighting short-term catalysts for stock prices, medium to long-term growth prospects, and high dividend yield assets [3][4][19] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the food and beverage sector is 18005.21, with a 52-week high of 20128.95 and a low of 14118.56 [1] Investment Highlights - Short-term catalysts include the gradual digestion of pressure from snack quarterly reports and the arrival of buying opportunities, with beer entering its peak season and cost improvements continuing. Companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Chengde Lulux are highlighted for their strong performance and attractive valuations [3] - Medium to long-term prospects are positive for companies like Angel Yeast, which is expected to benefit from strong overseas demand and cost improvements, and dairy companies like Yili and New Dairy, which are anticipated to recover profitability due to improved milk prices and demand from birth subsidy policies [3] - High dividend yield assets include brands like Master Kong (5.73%), Uni-President (5.56%), and Chengde Lulux (4.92%) [3] Weekly Performance Review - The food and beverage sector performed well, with the industry index showing a weekly increase of +0.20%, ranking 4th among 30 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.07%. The current dynamic PE ratio is 22.15, which is considered low historically [7][32] Company-Specific Forecasts - Guizhou Moutai is expected to see a revenue growth of 7% and a net profit growth of 8% in Q1 2025, with a focus on maintaining price stability [20] - Yili's revenue is projected to remain flat with a significant drop in net profit due to previous asset transfers, while New Dairy is expected to see a profit increase of 18-20% [22][30] - Dongpeng Beverage is forecasted to achieve a revenue growth of 30% and a net profit growth of 36% in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for its products [23][30] Market Trends - The report notes a trend towards rational growth in the liquor sector, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining competitive valuations and dividend yields, indicating resilience and risk management capabilities [19][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) with a target price of 285 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has a solid operational foundation, allowing for flexible management strategies. The revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to show a strong start, with a projected double-digit growth for 2024. The company is focusing on maintaining stable inventory and pricing while enhancing product structure assessments [6][7]. - The company aims to strengthen its market presence in both domestic and provincial markets, with a particular focus on expanding its distribution network in East and South China [6][7]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of the "Fen Enjoy" program in managing market dynamics and pricing strategies, which is expected to further enhance sales performance [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 31,928 million CNY in 2023 to 46,569 million CNY in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.8%, 17.3%, 12.9%, and 10.1% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 10,438 million CNY in 2023 to 15,799 million CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 28.9%, 19.7%, 13.9%, and 11.0% respectively [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 8.56 CNY in 2023 to 12.95 CNY in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 25 to 16 over the same period [2][10]. Market Positioning - The company has established a leading market share in its home province, with plans to enhance product structure while ensuring a stable growth trajectory. The focus will be on key products like Qing 20 and Lao Bai Fen, which are expected to see significant growth [6][7]. - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on any recovery in external demand, which could lead to a rapid rebound in performance metrics [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong sales performance during the 2025 Spring Festival, benefiting from a diverse product range and a nationwide expansion strategy. The innovative marketing efforts targeting younger demographics have also been noteworthy [8] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product structure in the domestic market while expanding its presence in external markets. The aim is to maintain stable growth and improve sales quality [8] - The long-term growth potential of the company is becoming clearer, with adjustments made to profit forecasts for 2024-2026, reflecting a commitment to quality over speed in growth [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 31,928 million RMB in 2023 to 46,239 million RMB in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.06% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 10,438 million RMB in 2023 to 15,486 million RMB in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 15.75% [1] - The latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 8.56 RMB in 2023 to 12.69 RMB in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1] Market Positioning - The company is enhancing its brand presence through strategic marketing initiatives, including collaborations with e-commerce platforms and social media campaigns, which have significantly increased brand visibility [8] - The company is also focusing on product innovation and upgrading existing products to cater to a broader audience, particularly in the mid-range segment [8] - The company aims to achieve a market share of nearly 80% in its home province while expanding its market presence in other regions [8]