[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 6 Aug 2025 中宠股份 Yantai China Pet Foods (002891 CH) 1H25 归母净利润符合市场预期，自有品牌和海外工厂高增 1H25 net profit attributable to the parent company was in line with market expectations, driven by strong growth in proprietary brands and overseas factories 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou yy.kou@htisec.com [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2025 年 8 月 06 日，烟台中宠食品股份有限公司（简称"公司"）发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2Q25 中宠收入超市场预期，归母净利润符合市场预期。1H25 公司实现总营业收入 24.3 亿，同比+24.3%；实现归 母净利润 2.03 亿，同比+42.6%；扣非归母净利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth and expansion of Zhongchong Co., a leading player in the pet food industry, particularly under the leadership of its founder, Hao Zhongli, who has made significant investments and strategic moves to enhance the company's market position and global footprint [1][4][22]. Company Overview - Zhongchong Co. has invested over 800 million yuan in New Zealand, acquiring the high-end pet food brand ZEAL and establishing three production bases [1]. - The company started from pet snack OEM and now owns several brands, including Wanpi and Zhenzhi, with 22 production bases globally [3][22]. - The stock price of Zhongchong Co. has increased nearly 80% since the beginning of the year, indicating strong market performance [4]. Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Zhongchong's revenue is projected to rise from 3.248 billion yuan to 4.465 billion yuan, while net profit is expected to grow from 106 million yuan to 394 million yuan, nearly quadrupling [7]. - The company's gross margin was 29.13% last year, which is lower than its competitor, Guobao Pet, at 42.32% [10][11]. - The company has improved its domestic gross margin to 35.18% through product restructuring and the introduction of high-margin products [11]. Market Strategy - Zhongchong Co. focuses on the mid-to-high-end market, leveraging a "domestic brand + cost performance" strategy [9]. - The company has shifted from an OEM model, which contributed 58% of its revenue, to a self-operated sales model, with over 68% of revenue coming from overseas [14]. - The company has established a strong online presence, with e-commerce channels accounting for approximately 70% of total pet sales in China [17]. Marketing and Branding - The company employs various marketing strategies, including collaborations with celebrities and social media influencers, to enhance brand visibility [18]. - In 2022, online sales of its proprietary brands accounted for 60% of domestic revenue, while offline sales made up 40% [19]. Research and Development - Zhongchong Co. invested 72.68 million yuan in R&D last year, a year-on-year increase of over 50%, representing 1.63% of total revenue [20]. Global Expansion - The company has established 22 production bases worldwide, including in the U.S., Canada, and New Zealand, and products are sold in 85 countries [22][23]. - The U.S. factory, built with an investment of 28 million USD, became profitable in its first year of operation [21]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity in North America, with a second factory expected to be completed by 2026 [24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, and Haier Smart Home among others [1]. Core Insights - The pet and gold jewelry sectors have shown the best performance, with significant growth driven by online sales and geopolitical factors affecting gold prices [4][5]. - The report highlights a divergence in sector performance, with luxury goods and pet sectors outperforming MSCI China, while other sectors like cosmetics and sportswear are experiencing negative growth [4][10]. Sector Performance Summary - **Pet Sector**: Increased by 4.2% this week, benefiting from high online sales growth, with brands like MaiFuDi and FrieGat showing year-on-year growth of 26% and 147% respectively [5][14]. - **Luxury Goods**: Continued strong performance in gold jewelry due to rising gold prices influenced by geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts in the US [5][14]. - **Snacks**: Experienced a slight pullback after previous gains, but companies show resilience with increasing production capacity and new product placements [5][14]. - **Sportswear**: Mixed performance with local brands experiencing a downturn, while international brands like Lululemon face challenges after lowering earnings guidance [5][14]. - **Cosmetics**: Continued decline over four weeks, impacted by discussions around collagen restructuring and pressure on domestic brands [5][14]. - **US Hotels and Credit Cards**: Both sectors declined due to risk-averse market sentiment [5][14]. Valuation Analysis - Most sectors are valued below their historical averages, with expected PE ratios for 2025 indicating potential undervaluation: - Sportswear: 14.5x (72% of 5-year average) - Luxury Goods: 23.1x (65% of 5-year average) - Gambling: 14.6x (24% of 5-year average) - Cosmetics: 33.9x (84% of 5-year average) - Pet Sector: 52.6x (54% of 5-year average) - Snacks: 25.3x (39% of 5-year average) - US Hotels: 28.0x (17% of 5-year average) - Credit Cards: 31.2x (60% of 5-year average) [6][15].

Summary of Conference Call on Pet Industry and Companies Industry Overview - The pet industry is experiencing rapid growth, with an annual compound growth rate of approximately 10% driven by increasing pet ownership and the rising penetration of pet food products [2][10] - The pet medical market is projected to reach 80-90 billion by 2025, making it the second-largest segment after pet food [10] Key Companies and Their Performance 1. Guibao Pet - Guibao Pet's self-owned brand has shown strong performance, with revenue of approximately 3.5 billion, accounting for nearly 70% of total revenue, and a net profit margin of 12% [1][4] - The high-end cat food brand, Fliegate, achieved a growth rate of 100% last year and maintained the same growth rate in Q1 of this year [4] - Guibao is expected to become a leading enterprise with projected revenues nearing 25 billion and net profits around 5 billion in the medium to long term [1][4] 2. Zhongchong Co., Ltd. - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. experienced a significant growth of nearly 200%-300% from its previous low, with total revenue from its three domestic brands (Wangpi, Lingxian, and ZIP) reaching 1.4 billion last year [5] - The company aims for overseas revenue of 400 million this year, maintaining a growth rate of 50% [5][6] - The net profit margin for its North American subsidiary is reported to be between 15%-20% [6] 3. Petty Co., Ltd. - Petty's overseas business accounts for a significant portion of its operations, with a focus on exports to the U.S. [8] - Domestic revenue was approximately 290 million last year, with a target of 400-450 million this year, reflecting a growth of over 40% [9] - The company is adjusting its product lines and plans to launch new baked grain products in Q2 and Q3 [8][9] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The pet medical sector is characterized by a lack of dominant players, with foreign brands leading in pharmaceuticals and vaccines, indicating substantial room for domestic companies to grow [11][12] - The average medical expenses for pets have doubled due to increasing age, leading to a rigid demand for medical services [10] - Companies like Ruipuhua and KQ Bio are recommended for their comprehensive industry layouts and potential for growth in the pet medical field [13][15] Additional Insights - The overall pet industry is expected to continue expanding, with self-owned brands focusing on product innovation to enhance profitability [2] - The competitive landscape in the pet medical sector is still developing, with many local companies poised to capture market share as the industry matures [12] - Other companies to watch include Baisha Technology, Biological Shares, and Zhongmu Shares, which have varying degrees of involvement in the pet medical sector [18]

Group 1: Pet Industry - The domestic pet food market is showing strong performance, with top brands like MaiFuDi and FriegaTe leading sales during the 618 shopping festival [2] - The growth of the pet economy in China is notable, with domestic brands demonstrating strong innovation capabilities [2] Group 2: Feed Industry - The feed production in China is experiencing significant growth, with April 2025 data showing a production of 27.53 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.2% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [3] - The recovery of pig stocks and high levels of poultry farming are expected to drive feed industry growth, alongside overseas expansion by major feed companies [3] Group 3: Agriculture - Recent drought conditions in the Huang-Huai-Hai region are affecting wheat production, with 40% of counties experiencing severe drought [4] - Grain prices are on the rise, with corn prices reaching 2375 RMB/ton and wheat prices at 2468 RMB/ton as of May 16, 2025, indicating a favorable environment for planting profitability [4]

Industry Overview - The pet economy has become a hot topic, with significant growth in the pet sector, particularly in pet food, which is expected to continue expanding [1][2] - The pet consumption market is projected to exceed 404.2 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% from 2015 to 2027 [1] - The number of pet dogs and cats in China is expected to reach 124 million by 2024, with a 2.1% increase from 2023 [2] Company Performance - Leading companies like Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co. have shown remarkable revenue growth, with Guai Bao's revenue increasing from 1.4 billion yuan in 2019 to 3.4 billion yuan in 2022, a CAGR of 34.3% [3] - Zhong Chong Co. reported revenues of 3.248 billion yuan in 2022, with a projected increase to 4.465 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting growth rates of 12.72% and 19.16% respectively [5][6] Market Dynamics - The pet food sector accounts for over 60% of the urban pet consumption market, which is expected to reach 3.012 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The market is experiencing a "Matthew Effect," where larger companies are gaining market share while smaller firms are struggling, with over 100,000 pet companies disappearing recently [1][10] Competitive Landscape - The top pet food brands are seeing shifts in market share, with Mai Fu Di surpassing Royal Canin in 2022 [4][6] - The CR10 (concentration ratio of the top 10 brands) for the pet food market is 19.96%, indicating a slight increase from the previous year [6] Challenges for Small Enterprises - Many small pet companies are facing significant challenges, with at least 35 companies expected to go bankrupt in 2024 due to financial difficulties [9][10] - The industry is witnessing a trend where brands that fail to innovate or adapt to market changes are being eliminated [10] Future Trends - The aging population is driving pet ownership, with consumers over 50 years old showing a 27% annual increase in spending [3] - New brands are emerging with unique selling propositions, focusing on fresh ingredients and innovative product offerings [11]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" [1][7]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue and net profit growth in Q1 2025, with revenue increasing by 25.4% and net profit by 62.1% year-on-year. The domestic brand momentum is on the rise, particularly with the "Wang Pi Xiao Jin Dun" high-fresh meat cat food, which is expected to gain market share in the mid-to-high-end cat food segment [1][6][7]. - The overseas factories have sufficient orders, and the second phase of production in Canada and the United States is expected to support North American demand, further enhancing the global supply chain layout [1][7]. - The company is expected to maintain good profitability due to low-cost structures and high capacity utilization in overseas factories, despite a slight increase in expenses due to higher marketing investments [1][6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.465 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, and a net profit of 394 million, up 68.9% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.276 billion, a 23.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 112 million, up 98.2% year-on-year [6][9]. - The company's gross margin improved by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year in 2024, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin staple food products and structural optimization [6][9]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 31.9%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 8.3%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [6][9]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 1.59 and 1.88 yuan, respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 34x for 2025 [1][7][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a high single-digit profit margin throughout the year, benefiting from the acceleration of domestic brand market share [1][7]. Market Position and Shareholder Information - The company has a total market capitalization of 15.8 billion yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 16.8% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 40% [2][6]. - The major shareholder is Yantai Zhongxing Biotechnology Co., Ltd., holding a 24.8% stake in the company [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the pet food industry or companies within it [8] Core Insights - The pet food market shows varied performance across different online platforms, with significant growth in certain brands and categories. For instance, the overall GMV for pet food on Tmall in January-February 2025 reached 2.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, while JD.com saw a decline of 13.27% with a GMV of 860 million yuan. Douyin, however, experienced a robust growth of 29.30%, achieving a GMV of 1.024 billion yuan [5][6] - Notable brands such as MaiFuDi and FleiJiaTe have shown exceptional growth, with MaiFuDi achieving a GMV of 324 million yuan, up 34.29% year-on-year, and FleiJiaTe reaching 112 million yuan, a staggering increase of 176.75% [5] - The competitive landscape in the pet food industry is evolving, with a shift from mere brand expansion to a focus on profitability. The year 2025 is anticipated to be crucial for pet food brands, emphasizing the need to monitor profit margins alongside market share [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Tmall's GMV for pet food in January-February 2025 was 2.101 billion yuan, up 12.79% year-on-year - JD.com reported a GMV of 860 million yuan, down 13.27% - Douyin's GMV reached 1.024 billion yuan, up 29.30% [5] Brand Analysis - MaiFuDi's GMV was 324 million yuan, up 34.29%, with Tmall growth at 13.06% - FleiJiaTe achieved a GMV of 112 million yuan, up 176.75%, with Tmall growth at 156.50% - Other brands like GuaiBao and ZhongChong also showed varying growth rates, indicating a competitive market [5][6] Competitive Landscape - The report indicates a shift towards a more stable competitive environment, where brands must balance growth and profitability - The focus is on brands that can lead market trends while improving profit margins, with recommendations for brands like GuaiBao and ZhongChong that are performing well across sales channels [6]