[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 6 Aug 2025 中宠股份 Yantai China Pet Foods (002891 CH) 1H25 归母净利润符合市场预期，自有品牌和海外工厂高增 1H25 net profit attributable to the parent company was in line with market expectations, driven by strong growth in proprietary brands and overseas factories 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou yy.kou@htisec.com [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2025 年 8 月 06 日，烟台中宠食品股份有限公司（简称"公司"）发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2Q25 中宠收入超市场预期，归母净利润符合市场预期。1H25 公司实现总营业收入 24.3 亿，同比+24.3%；实现归 母净利润 2.03 亿，同比+42.6%；扣非归母净利 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Pet Food Industry - The pet food industry is experiencing a significant trend towards domestic high-end products, with companies like Guobao and Zhongchong performing exceptionally well. Sales growth for the industry from January to May was approximately 17%, with Guobao's online growth at about 49% and Zhongchong's online growth between 25% and 30% [1][2][4]. - Guobao's sub-brand, Freigate, is expected to open up long-term growth potential, with an estimated profit of 800 million yuan for the year and a low valuation, suggesting a potential for increased investment [1][4]. - Zhongchong's Wanpi brand showed strong performance in the first half of the year, with an expected profit of 440-450 million yuan, and optimistic projections for next year at 580-600 million yuan [1][4]. Restaurant Industry - The restaurant industry has entered a consumption replacement cycle, with positive outlooks for Yum China, Xiaocaiyuan, and Green Tea. Xiaocaiyuan is projected to achieve a profit of around 700 million yuan, corresponding to a valuation of about 14 times [1][5]. - Green Tea is noted for its higher cost-performance ratio, while Yum China benefits from growth in takeout and KFC business [1][5]. Beverage Industry - The tea beverage sector is seeing attention on brands like Guming and Mixue, with Guming expected to exceed 2 billion yuan in profit and a continuous growth in store openings [1][5]. Automotive Industry - Xiaomi's automotive business is projected to significantly increase production capacity by the end of 2025, supporting a sales target of over 400,000 units this year and an expected 700,000 to 900,000 units next year. The Ultra version models have a high sales ratio, with an average price of about 300,000 yuan, enhancing gross margins [1][7]. Core Insights and Arguments Performance Trends - The overall performance of the new consumption sector has shown signs of a pullback since early June, particularly in the food and beverage industry post the 618 shopping festival. However, the rise of domestic high-end pet food brands is notable, with four out of the top five brands on Tmall being domestic [2][4]. - Guobao's revenue growth in the second quarter is expected to be around 25%, despite a 5%-10% decline in overseas OEM revenue due to trade tensions [2][4]. Investment Recommendations - The pet food industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity, with strong recommendations for Guobao and Zhongchong [1][4]. - In the restaurant sector, investment opportunities are identified in Yum China, Xiaocaiyuan, and Green Tea, with Xiaocaiyuan's expansion and profitability being particularly highlighted [1][5]. Market Dynamics - The gold and jewelry industry is experiencing a shift towards differentiation, with companies like Laopu benefiting from this trend. Despite a 20% decline in overall industry volume in the second quarter, certain companies continue to perform well [2][24]. - The cosmetics industry is facing a systemic pullback, but long-term growth potential remains strong for companies like Maogeping, Shangmei, and Jinbo Biological, which are expected to achieve annual growth rates of 20%-30% [23][25]. Other Important Insights - The pet supplies sector is also highlighted for its potential, with companies like Yiyi, Tianyuan, and Yuanfei Pet showing stable growth and significant opportunities in brand operations [21][22]. - The personal care sector is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, with companies like Baiya expected to recover from short-term volatility and achieve growth rates of over 30% [20][22]. This comprehensive overview captures the key insights and trends across various industries, highlighting potential investment opportunities and market dynamics.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference focused on the pet food industry, highlighting the strong growth momentum and the rise of domestic brands in the market [3][20]. - The competitive landscape shows a shift with domestic brands gaining market share, particularly in the pet food sector [3][20]. Key Points and Arguments - **Profit Growth**: Companies like Lusi and Peddy reported profit growth rates of 45%, 69%, and 15% respectively, indicating a robust performance across the sector [2]. - **Domestic Market Performance**: The domestic market for pet food is thriving, with brands like Guobao and Zhongchong showing significant revenue increases. Guobao's domestic revenue reached 3.55 billion, a 24% year-on-year growth, while Zhongchong's revenue was 1.414 billion, growing by 30.3% [6][9]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: In the top 20 pet food brands, foreign brands still hold 6 to 7 positions, but domestic brands are rapidly rising, especially during major sales events like Double Eleven [4][3]. - **Mainstream Products**: The pet food market is primarily driven by staple foods, which account for over 80% of the market share, while snacks only represent about 8% [7]. - **High Profit Margins**: Staple foods generally have higher profit margins compared to snacks due to lower labor requirements in production [8]. Emerging Trends - **Domestic Brand Growth**: There is a strong expectation for domestic brands to continue growing, with projections suggesting Guobao could achieve over 20% growth in the next few years [9]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: Changes in tariffs, particularly from the U.S., are creating opportunities for domestic brands to fill the gap left by foreign imports, especially in the high-end market segment [12][14]. - **Export Growth**: The pet food export market is also expanding, with a 20% growth reported in 2024, driven mainly by snack products [15]. Additional Insights - **Product Innovation**: Companies are focusing on product innovation and marketing strategies to enhance their market presence, with positive feedback on new product lines like broth series [11]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The report highlights Zhongchong and Guobao as key players to watch, with Zhongchong's U.S. factory providing a competitive edge in the export market [16][17]. - **Pharmaceutical Sector**: The pet pharmaceutical market is also noted as an area of interest, with companies like Ruipu Biological showing promise in pet medicine and supply chain management [20]. Conclusion - The pet food industry is experiencing a vibrant phase of growth, driven by domestic brands and changing market dynamics. The focus on staple foods, innovative products, and strategic responses to tariff changes are key factors contributing to this positive outlook [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth and expansion of Zhongchong Co., a leading player in the pet food industry, particularly under the leadership of its founder, Hao Zhongli, who has made significant investments and strategic moves to enhance the company's market position and global footprint [1][4][22]. Company Overview - Zhongchong Co. has invested over 800 million yuan in New Zealand, acquiring the high-end pet food brand ZEAL and establishing three production bases [1]. - The company started from pet snack OEM and now owns several brands, including Wanpi and Zhenzhi, with 22 production bases globally [3][22]. - The stock price of Zhongchong Co. has increased nearly 80% since the beginning of the year, indicating strong market performance [4]. Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Zhongchong's revenue is projected to rise from 3.248 billion yuan to 4.465 billion yuan, while net profit is expected to grow from 106 million yuan to 394 million yuan, nearly quadrupling [7]. - The company's gross margin was 29.13% last year, which is lower than its competitor, Guobao Pet, at 42.32% [10][11]. - The company has improved its domestic gross margin to 35.18% through product restructuring and the introduction of high-margin products [11]. Market Strategy - Zhongchong Co. focuses on the mid-to-high-end market, leveraging a "domestic brand + cost performance" strategy [9]. - The company has shifted from an OEM model, which contributed 58% of its revenue, to a self-operated sales model, with over 68% of revenue coming from overseas [14]. - The company has established a strong online presence, with e-commerce channels accounting for approximately 70% of total pet sales in China [17]. Marketing and Branding - The company employs various marketing strategies, including collaborations with celebrities and social media influencers, to enhance brand visibility [18]. - In 2022, online sales of its proprietary brands accounted for 60% of domestic revenue, while offline sales made up 40% [19]. Research and Development - Zhongchong Co. invested 72.68 million yuan in R&D last year, a year-on-year increase of over 50%, representing 1.63% of total revenue [20]. Global Expansion - The company has established 22 production bases worldwide, including in the U.S., Canada, and New Zealand, and products are sold in 85 countries [22][23]. - The U.S. factory, built with an investment of 28 million USD, became profitable in its first year of operation [21]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity in North America, with a second factory expected to be completed by 2026 [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, particularly focusing on the pet food sector [2]. Core Insights - The pet consumption market shows strong resilience and growth potential, with a total sales figure of 75 billion yuan during the 618 shopping festival, contributing to an overall e-commerce sales of 855.6 billion yuan [3][17]. - The report highlights two key trends: the dominance of cat food in sales rankings and the increasing demand for health-oriented and specialized pet food products [3][20]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with significant improvements in rankings for brands like Xianlang and Frigate, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards local products [4][21]. Summary by Sections 1. 618 Shopping Festival Performance - The 618 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 855.6 billion yuan, with pet food sales reaching 75 billion yuan, showcasing strong consumer demand [3][17]. - Cat food products dominated the sales rankings, with all top 10 brands in the cat food category also appearing in the overall top 10 sales list [3][18]. - Health-oriented and specialized pet food categories, such as air-dried and baked food, are experiencing rapid growth, reflecting a trend towards more refined pet care [20][24]. 2. Brand Performance and Market Trends - Domestic brands are increasingly prominent, with Xianlang rising to the top position in the pet food category, and Frigate improving its ranking significantly [4][21]. - The report notes that pet supplies are also gaining traction, with brands like Xiaopei and Xucuihua entering the top 20 sales rankings [4][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of health and specialization in pet food, with brands like Royal Canin and Frigate making notable appearances in various categories [20][24]. 3. E-commerce Channel Preferences - Different e-commerce platforms exhibit varying consumer preferences, with JD.com showing a higher representation of overseas brands compared to Tmall [5][27]. - New brands are emerging rapidly on platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, with established brands like Maifudi maintaining strong positions [5][30]. - The export of pet food is facing temporary disruptions due to tariffs, but the overall impact is expected to be manageable as companies adapt by expanding production in non-US markets [5][33]. 4. Long-term Outlook - The domestic pet food market is expected to continue its steady growth, with local brands reshaping the market landscape and improving their market share and profitability [5][33]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pet food sector, such as Zhongchong Co., Ltd., Petty Co., Ltd., and other prominent players like Guobao Pet [5][33].

Summary of Pet Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the pet industry, particularly the performance of major online platforms during the 2025 618 shopping festival, including Tmall, Douyin, and JD.com [1][2][3]. Key Insights Online Platform Performance - **Tmall**: Sales growth is expected to be in the range of 9% to 10%, but faced challenges due to insufficient subsidies and limited traffic, making it less friendly to small and medium-sized businesses [2][3]. - **Douyin**: Outperformed expectations with a growth forecast of around 15%, benefiting from its social attributes and substantial subsidies, particularly effective for promoting new brands [2][3]. - **JD.com**: Anticipated growth is below 5%, maintaining a stable but low growth rate [2][3]. Return on Investment (ROI) and Discount Strategies - **Douyin**: ROI for domestic brands during the promotion period ranged from 2 to 5, while new or small high-ticket brands had an ROI of 1 to 1.5 [3]. - **Tmall**: Implemented a direct discount strategy of 15%, with mature brands achieving an ROI of 5 to 8, while new brands fell below 5 [3]. Brand Performance - **Guai Bao's Mai Fu Di**: Experienced a decline in Tmall rankings due to brand splitting but maintained overall good performance [1][4]. - **Fleegat**: Suffered from negative publicity on Xiaohongshu, impacting market performance significantly [1][4]. - **Zhongchong's Wanpi Brand**: Successfully repositioned through the Xiao Jin Dun series, achieving sales growth, though repeat purchase rates remain to be validated [1][4][5]. - **Petty Co.**: The Jue Yan brand leads in the high-end dog snack sector but faces slowing growth in direct sales [1][10]. Market Trends - The pet food sector is expected to see an overall online growth rate of around 10% for the year [3]. - Imported pet food brands are facing a decline in the Chinese market, with strategies focusing on optimizing supply chains and local production to mitigate challenges [2][17][18]. Future Outlook - The trend towards self-owned supply chains among OEM brands is expected to continue, with a focus on combining staple and snack products to enhance profitability [13]. - The baking grain category is anticipated to continue encroaching on the puffed grain market, with potential new trends emerging in pet food processing [20][21]. Additional Important Points - The high-quality traffic on Tmall is scarce, and past collaborations to boost traffic have not been successful [3]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with brands needing to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [12][19]. - The performance of international brands like Mars and Royal Canin is under scrutiny as they adapt to local market conditions [17][19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the performance of various platforms, brand strategies, and market trends within the pet industry.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the pig farming sector and the pet food industry, with significant insights into market trends and investment opportunities for 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points on Pig Farming Sector - **Current Market Conditions**: Despite a recent decline, pig prices remain high, with ongoing supply pressure expected to persist into 2025. Increased piglet restocking in the first half of the year will lead to greater slaughter pressure in the second half [1][2]. - **Policy Changes**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has implemented measures to limit sow production capacity, secondary fattening, and weight reduction to achieve capacity reduction. These policies are expected to positively impact future capacity contraction [1][4]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investment targets should consider asset structure safety margins, low-cost advantages, and slaughter flexibility. Top recommendations include Muyuan and Wens, with secondary recommendations for Shennong, Juxing Dekang, and Lihua [1][5]. Key Points on Pet Food Industry - **Market Performance**: The pet food market is performing well in 2025, with brands like Guobao's Maifudi seeing a 26% year-on-year growth in May, and Fuleijiate achieving a remarkable 147% growth [1][7][8]. - **Online Sales Growth**: In May 2025, Tmall's pet food sales grew by 2%, JD's by 23%, and Douyin's by 54%, leading to an overall growth of 16% across these platforms. High growth rates are noted for brands with significant direct sales [1][9]. - **Brand Performance**: Leading brands maintained strong growth, with Maifudi achieving a 32% increase and Fuleijiate 137% in the first five months of 2025 [1][11]. Additional Insights - **Industry Trends**: The pet food industry is transitioning towards mid-to-high-end product upgrades, driven by capital operations and increasing profit margins. The consumer acceptance of new products and scientific feeding methods remains high [1][12]. - **Market Concentration**: The concentration of the domestic pet food market is significantly lower than that of international markets, indicating potential for growth and increased competition [1][14]. - **Company Dynamics**: The number of registered pet-related companies peaked in 2023 but has since declined by over 12%, indicating a shift in the industry landscape and higher operational demands [1][13]. - **Future Outlook**: The domestic pet industry is expected to maintain high growth rates, with a focus on product quality as a key driver of consumer behavior. Despite high valuation levels, the industry is anticipated to continue its rapid development [1][17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, and Haier Smart Home among others [1]. Core Insights - The pet and gold jewelry sectors have shown the best performance, with significant growth driven by online sales and geopolitical factors affecting gold prices [4][5]. - The report highlights a divergence in sector performance, with luxury goods and pet sectors outperforming MSCI China, while other sectors like cosmetics and sportswear are experiencing negative growth [4][10]. Sector Performance Summary - **Pet Sector**: Increased by 4.2% this week, benefiting from high online sales growth, with brands like MaiFuDi and FrieGat showing year-on-year growth of 26% and 147% respectively [5][14]. - **Luxury Goods**: Continued strong performance in gold jewelry due to rising gold prices influenced by geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts in the US [5][14]. - **Snacks**: Experienced a slight pullback after previous gains, but companies show resilience with increasing production capacity and new product placements [5][14]. - **Sportswear**: Mixed performance with local brands experiencing a downturn, while international brands like Lululemon face challenges after lowering earnings guidance [5][14]. - **Cosmetics**: Continued decline over four weeks, impacted by discussions around collagen restructuring and pressure on domestic brands [5][14]. - **US Hotels and Credit Cards**: Both sectors declined due to risk-averse market sentiment [5][14]. Valuation Analysis - Most sectors are valued below their historical averages, with expected PE ratios for 2025 indicating potential undervaluation: - Sportswear: 14.5x (72% of 5-year average) - Luxury Goods: 23.1x (65% of 5-year average) - Gambling: 14.6x (24% of 5-year average) - Cosmetics: 33.9x (84% of 5-year average) - Pet Sector: 52.6x (54% of 5-year average) - Snacks: 25.3x (39% of 5-year average) - US Hotels: 28.0x (17% of 5-year average) - Credit Cards: 31.2x (60% of 5-year average) [6][15].

Summary of Conference Call on Pet Industry and Companies Industry Overview - The pet industry is experiencing rapid growth, with an annual compound growth rate of approximately 10% driven by increasing pet ownership and the rising penetration of pet food products [2][10] - The pet medical market is projected to reach 80-90 billion by 2025, making it the second-largest segment after pet food [10] Key Companies and Their Performance 1. Guibao Pet - Guibao Pet's self-owned brand has shown strong performance, with revenue of approximately 3.5 billion, accounting for nearly 70% of total revenue, and a net profit margin of 12% [1][4] - The high-end cat food brand, Fliegate, achieved a growth rate of 100% last year and maintained the same growth rate in Q1 of this year [4] - Guibao is expected to become a leading enterprise with projected revenues nearing 25 billion and net profits around 5 billion in the medium to long term [1][4] 2. Zhongchong Co., Ltd. - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. experienced a significant growth of nearly 200%-300% from its previous low, with total revenue from its three domestic brands (Wangpi, Lingxian, and ZIP) reaching 1.4 billion last year [5] - The company aims for overseas revenue of 400 million this year, maintaining a growth rate of 50% [5][6] - The net profit margin for its North American subsidiary is reported to be between 15%-20% [6] 3. Petty Co., Ltd. - Petty's overseas business accounts for a significant portion of its operations, with a focus on exports to the U.S. [8] - Domestic revenue was approximately 290 million last year, with a target of 400-450 million this year, reflecting a growth of over 40% [9] - The company is adjusting its product lines and plans to launch new baked grain products in Q2 and Q3 [8][9] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The pet medical sector is characterized by a lack of dominant players, with foreign brands leading in pharmaceuticals and vaccines, indicating substantial room for domestic companies to grow [11][12] - The average medical expenses for pets have doubled due to increasing age, leading to a rigid demand for medical services [10] - Companies like Ruipuhua and KQ Bio are recommended for their comprehensive industry layouts and potential for growth in the pet medical field [13][15] Additional Insights - The overall pet industry is expected to continue expanding, with self-owned brands focusing on product innovation to enhance profitability [2] - The competitive landscape in the pet medical sector is still developing, with many local companies poised to capture market share as the industry matures [12] - Other companies to watch include Baisha Technology, Biological Shares, and Zhongmu Shares, which have varying degrees of involvement in the pet medical sector [18]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.03%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.17% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3380.21, with a decline of 0.01% and 741 gainers against 1107 losers [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index is at 10246.52, down 0.03%, with 745 gainers and 1668 losers [2] - The ChiNext Index is at 2052.00, up 0.17%, with 357 gainers and 855 losers [2] External Market - The US stock market has paused its rebound, with the S&P 500 down 0.39% to 5940.46, the Nasdaq down 0.38% to 19142.71, and the Dow Jones down 0.27% to 42677.24 [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.65%, with mixed performances from major Chinese tech stocks [3] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities highlights rapid progress in the AI industry chain, expecting continued upward trends due to ongoing iterations of AI models and technologies, benefiting software companies with data, customers, and scenarios [4] - Huatai Securities continues to recommend the pet sector, noting strong Q2 performance data and upcoming catalysts such as events and promotions [5] - Guotai Junan Securities reports high growth in feed production, with a 4.2% month-on-month increase and a 9.0% year-on-year increase in April 2025, driven by recovery in livestock and aquaculture [6] - Huatai Securities also recommends real estate stocks with a "three good" logic, focusing on companies with good credit, good cities, and good products, particularly in core cities [7]