摘要 新疆民爆市场受益于西部大开发战略及煤矿产能扩张，预计未来几年需 求稳步增长，十五五期间或突破 100 万吨，主要集中在哈密和准东片区。 供给端受限，新增产能审批周期长，前四大企业占据市场主导地位，竞 争格局良好。 雪峰科技与宏大整合后，矿服订单获取能力增强，并受益于宏大注入的 产能承诺。上游硝酸布局也将受益于新疆民爆市场增长。公司计划通过 出海扩展非洲和南美洲市场。 广东宏大新签订单持续增长，预计未来几年复合增长率可达 20%以上， 主要得益于西部地区矿服订单及海外业务扩展。军工业务有望实现突破， 下半年或有导弹系列订单落地。 工信部即将发布重点行业稳增长工作方案，涉及调结构优供给、淘汰落 后产能，对纯碱和氯碱行业产生影响。天然碱企业如博元化工受益于产 能扩张，盈利能力提升。氯碱板块中，中泰集团和新疆天业值得关注。 化肥行业正经历自然优化，尿素价格受海外需求及出口配额影响，国内 外价差显著。华鲁恒升受益于尿素产能及出口配额，新建合成器项目预 计明年投产，将贡献利润。 化工反内卷还有哪些布局及新疆调研反馈 20250727 Q&A 2025 年上半年新疆工业炸药市场的表现如何？ 2025 年上半年，新疆工 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, with specific recommendations for companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Yancheng Chemical, and Runfeng Shares [13]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, particularly in the pesticide sector, driven by regulatory actions against illegal production and price increases for key products [1][2]. - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors on oil and gas prices, with a stable global GDP growth rate of 2.8% and expectations of increased oil supply from non-OPEC sources [2][4]. - The report suggests that the elimination of outdated production capacity may improve the industry structure, particularly in key sectors like steel and petrochemicals [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the current macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry, noting a stable increase in oil demand despite some slowdown due to tariffs [2]. - It mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream industries [2]. Price Trends - Recent price movements include a 15% increase in the price of certain herbicides and a general upward trend in pesticide prices due to regulatory actions [1]. - The report notes that TDI prices are expected to rise due to production halts in Europe, with global TDI inventory at low levels [1]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Wanhua Chemical, Yancheng Chemical, and Runfeng Shares, among others [1][13]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of companies in the agricultural chemicals sector, particularly those involved in pesticide production [1][13]. Market Conditions - The report indicates that the chemical industry is currently in a recovery phase, with signs of improvement in demand and pricing for key products [1]. - It highlights the importance of regulatory compliance and the impact of government policies on market dynamics [1].