6、美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯称，随着劳动力市场降温，美联储在近期仍有进一步降息 的空间。美联储理事米兰也表示，如果他的投票在下一次议息中具有决定性作用，他将支持降息25个基 点。波士顿联储主席柯林斯同样表示，预计未来还会进一步降息。不过，达拉斯联储主席洛根认为，12 月会议上很可能有必要按兵不动，因为资产估值偏高。上述官员讲话后，市场押注美联储12月降息概率 突破50%。 市场回顾 一、期货市场 | | 本周涨跌幅 | 本月涨跌幅 | | 今年以来涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE布油 | | -2.92 | -2.89 | -6.92 | | | COMEX黄金 | | -0.77 | 1.17 | 47.22 | | | UME铝 | | -1.77 | -1.94 | 10.05 | | | UME铜 | | -0.68 | -1.27 | 22.92 | | | CBOT E米 | | -1.02 | -1.02 | -14.55 | | | CBOT大豆 | | 0.18 | 1.69 | | 7.38 | | | 本 ...

率先披露这项计划的美国阿克西奥斯新闻网站19日晚报道说，新计划要求乌克兰"割让更多领土"，"以 换取美国对乌克兰和欧洲未来不受俄罗斯入侵的安全保障"。报道援引美国官员的话说，白宫认为，如 果俄乌冲突持续，乌克兰最终或将失去这些领土，"因此，现在达成协议符合乌克兰的利益"。 另据《华盛顿邮报》援引匿名知情人士的话报道，除领土要求外，新计划还要求乌军队规模削减一半。 报道称，美方正在就新计划向乌总统泽连斯基施加压力，由于战场形势和乌国内重大腐败丑闻，泽连斯 基"可能别无选择"。 美俄领导人今年8月在阿拉斯加会晤后，俄乌和谈陷入僵局。10月，俄方拒绝特朗普"就地停火"建议， 特朗普取消原定在匈牙利举行的美俄领导人会晤，并制裁俄最大的两家石油企业。 据新华社消息，美国全国广播公司19日晚援引白宫官员的话报道说，美国总统特朗普本周已批准一项旨 在结束俄乌冲突的28点新计划，尝试重启和谈。 报道援引不具名的白宫官员的话说，除美国中东问题特使威特科夫外，美国副总统万斯、国务卿鲁比奥 和特朗普女婿库什纳也参与制订这项计划，计划重点是"为冲突双方提供安全保障，以确保持久和平"。 这名白宫官员拒绝透露计划的具体细节，表示尚需与相 ...

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a widespread decline on November 14, with Bitcoin dropping by 2.51%, Ethereum by 5.86%, Ripple by 4.22%, and Dogecoin by 3.84% [1][2]. - In the last 24 hours, nearly 200,000 individuals faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market [3]. Liquidation and Market Sentiment - The total liquidation in the past 24 hours reached approximately $760 million, with long positions accounting for $600 million and short positions for $150 million [4]. - Over the past month, the sell-off of spot Bitcoin ETFs has amounted to around $2.8 billion, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [4][5]. - 10X Research noted that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a bear phase, with Bitcoin and most related assets deeply entrenched in this trend [5]. External Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with Cleveland Fed President suggesting that rates should remain stable to combat inflation [7]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 51.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates is at 48.4% [8]. - International oil prices have surged, with both NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent crude rising over 2% [5]. Gold Market - International gold prices have also seen an increase, with London gold prices rising above $4,200 [9].

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a widespread decline on November 14, with Bitcoin down 2.51%, Ethereum down 5.86%, Ripple down 4.22%, and Dogecoin down 3.84% [1][2]. - In the last 24 hours, nearly 200,000 individuals faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market [3][4]. - The total liquidation in the past 24 hours amounted to approximately $760 million, with long positions accounting for $760 million and short positions for $600 million [4]. Market Sentiment and Trends - 10X Research indicated a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market, stating that Bitcoin and most crypto-related assets are deeply entrenched in a bear market [5]. - The market is under dual pressure from spot sell-offs and corporate hedging, leading traders to largely avoid altcoins [5]. - The recent sell-off of spot Bitcoin ETFs has reached approximately $2.8 billion over the past month, with expectations of further withdrawals if price momentum stagnates before the December Federal Reserve meeting [4][5]. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester emphasized the need to maintain stable interest rates to combat persistent inflation, particularly affecting low- and middle-income households [6]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December stands at 51.6%, while the probability of maintaining current rates is at 48.4% [7]. - The White House indicated that the October employment report will be released, but it will lack unemployment rate data due to a federal government shutdown [7]. International Developments - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung announced an agreement with the U.S. regarding tariffs and security cooperation, including plans for South Korea to build nuclear submarines [8][9]. - The international gold price has also seen an increase, with London gold prices rising above $4,200 [10].

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a widespread decline on November 14, with Bitcoin dropping by 2.51%, Ethereum by 5.86%, Ripple by 4.22%, and Dogecoin by 3.84% [1] - CoinGlass reported that nearly 200,000 individuals faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market within the last 24 hours [4] Liquidation Data - Total liquidation in the last 24 hours reached approximately $760 million, with long positions accounting for $760 million and short positions for $600 million [5] - In the past month, the total sell-off of spot Bitcoin ETFs has reached around $2.8 billion, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [6] Economic Indicators - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain stable interest rates to combat persistent inflation, particularly affecting low- and middle-income families [10] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December stands at 51.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates is at 48.4% [13] International Relations - South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced an agreement with the U.S. regarding tariffs and security cooperation, including plans for South Korea to build nuclear submarines [16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

Economic Data Summary - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [1] - In September, industrial output increased by 6.5% year-on-year, while retail sales rose by 3% [1] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, but grew by 3% when excluding real estate development [1] - The average disposable income per capita for residents was 32,509 yuan, reflecting a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price factors [1] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI rose by 3% year-on-year in September, the highest since January, but below market expectations of 3.1% [1] - Core CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, also lower than anticipated [1] - Service sector inflation reached its weakest level since November 2021 [1] - The market has largely priced in two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the remainder of the year [1] Market Performance - The S&P Global reported that the U.S. manufacturing PMI for October was 52.2, and the services PMI was 55.2, both showing improvement from September [1] - The composite PMI for October was 54.8, indicating a recovery in economic activity [1] - New orders composite index reached its highest level of the year, with manufacturing orders showing the strongest growth since February of the previous year [1] APEC Meeting and U.S.-China Relations - Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the APEC informal leaders' meeting in South Korea from October 30 to November 1 [2] - There is ongoing communication regarding a potential meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents during the APEC conference [2] - Recent U.S.-China trade talks focused on key issues such as maritime logistics, tariffs, and agricultural trade, resulting in a basic consensus on addressing mutual concerns [3] Stock Market Overview - The A-share market showed a rebound, with the ChiNext Index rising by 8.05%, the largest increase among major indices [7] - The overall market sentiment improved due to expectations of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China [7] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.92%, while the Nasdaq index rose by 2.31%, reflecting a positive response to weaker inflation data [8] Bond Market Insights - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with credit bonds generally declining and government bonds showing slight increases [10][12] - The U.S. Treasury yields saw minor movements, influenced by mixed economic signals and trade tensions [12] - The domestic bond market is expected to remain volatile due to ongoing economic uncertainties and policy adjustments [10]

Core Viewpoints - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality economic development, focusing on technology and consumption, which is expected to drive further growth in the Chinese stock market, particularly in the A and H shares [3][5]. Economic Development Goals - The main goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" include significant improvements in high-quality development, technological self-reliance, deepening reforms, enhancing social civilization, improving living standards, and advancing ecological progress [3]. - The transition from quantity to quality in economic growth is crucial during this period, allowing for structural reforms and a shift in growth drivers from solely GDP to a combination of actual GDP, inflation, and exchange rates [3]. Equity Market Insights - Guotai Junan Securities predicts that the "transformation bull market" in China will deepen, with a focus on advanced manufacturing, export-oriented industries, and consumer sectors [5]. - Goldman Sachs indicates that a "slow bull market" is forming in the Chinese stock market, with a potential 30% increase in key indices by the end of 2027, driven by profit growth and valuation recovery [6]. - Bosera Fund highlights that the recent rise in the Shanghai Composite Index reflects positive market sentiment and structural adjustments, suggesting a "steady foundation with moderate aggression" investment strategy [7]. Asset Performance Overview - The performance of major asset classes shows that the A-share market has seen significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 17.86% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Index has increased by 30.41% [8]. - Gold prices are expected to enter a high volatility range, with analysts suggesting that it is no longer a high-value global asset, and a price range of $3,800 to $3,900 per ounce is seen as a fundamental support area [18]. Macro and Fixed Income - Guohai Franklin Templeton Fund anticipates a volatile bond market, with potential for continued interest rate cuts and a generally positive monetary policy environment [16]. - Bosera Fund expects monetary policy to accelerate easing, particularly if the Federal Reserve continues to lower rates, which would favor the bond market [17]. Asset Allocation Strategies - Guotai Asset Management suggests a "technology growth + high dividend" strategy for A-shares, focusing on sectors with global competitiveness like AI and semiconductors, while also including high-dividend assets for stability [20].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have surged significantly due to the announcement of U.S. sanctions against major Russian oil companies, indicating a shift in U.S. policy towards Russia and its oil exports [2][5][8]. Oil Price Movement - As of the latest report, WTI crude oil has increased by over 5%, surpassing $61 per barrel, while ICE Brent crude has also risen by nearly 5%, exceeding $65 per barrel [3][5]. - The previous day, WTI and ICE Brent crude oil prices had already seen substantial increases of 3.74% and 4.94%, respectively [5]. U.S. Sanctions on Russian Oil Companies - The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, which account for nearly 50% of Russia's total crude oil exports [5][6]. - The sanctions are part of a broader strategy to pressure Russia to cease military actions in Ukraine, with the U.S. urging immediate ceasefire [5][6]. Impact on Global Oil Trade - Indian refiners, key buyers of Russian oil, are expected to face challenges in continuing trade with Russia following the U.S. sanctions [6]. - The European Union is also moving forward with its own sanctions against Russia, which will include a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas entering European markets [6]. Shift in U.S. Policy Towards Russia - President Trump has canceled a planned meeting with Russian President Putin, citing a lack of productive outcomes, marking a significant shift in U.S. diplomatic strategy [7][8]. - The recent sanctions represent a notable change in Trump's approach, as he previously expressed a willingness to engage with Russia despite the ongoing conflict [8]. Military Developments in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict - The Russian military has reported significant operations against Ukrainian forces, including the destruction of numerous drones and attacks on military infrastructure [9]. - Ukraine has also claimed progress in its military operations, capturing Russian soldiers and targeting military facilities within Russia [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in international oil prices, driven by U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil companies and a shift in U.S. policy towards Russia, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][3][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Movement - International oil prices saw significant increases, with WTI crude oil rising over 5% to exceed $61 per barrel and ICE Brent crude oil surpassing $65 per barrel [1]. - The previous day, WTI and ICE Brent crude oil had already increased by 3.74% and 4.94%, respectively [1]. - The surge in oil prices is attributed to U.S. sanctions against Russia's largest oil companies, which are estimated to account for nearly 50% of Russia's total crude oil exports [3]. Group 2: U.S. Sanctions and Policy Changes - U.S. Treasury Secretary announced sanctions against Russian state-owned and private oil companies, urging an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine [3]. - The sanctions are part of a broader strategy, with the EU also agreeing on new sanctions against Russia, including a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas [3]. - Trump's cancellation of a planned meeting with Putin reflects a significant shift in U.S. policy, moving from a previously more lenient approach to a more aggressive stance against Russia [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of sanctions, U.S. oil stocks showed strong performance, with companies like Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips seeing gains of nearly 3% and over 2%, respectively [1]. - The market's reaction indicates investor confidence in the potential for higher oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints resulting from the sanctions [1][3].