1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan is likely to have its first female prime minister. A shutdown over 15 days may affect the release of important economic data. If Koike Sanae is elected, it may impact Sino - Japanese relations and market risk preference [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economy continues to stabilize. The manufacturing PMI is 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing PMI drops 0.3 points to 50.0. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active [7]. - Asset view: In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's October rate cut and the BoJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. In the fourth quarter, maintain the asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: All major stock index futures showed gains. The CSI 300 futures had a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date increase of 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 19.59% respectively. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had positive performances [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures had small increases, except for the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a year - to - date decline of 0.56% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat on the day, with different trends in other currency pairs. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged on the day, while the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate had a weekly increase of 3.52% [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Some interest rates had minor changes, such as the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield decreasing by 2.7 bp [3]. 3.2 Hot Industries - Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals had positive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date performances. For example, the non - ferrous metals index had a year - to - date increase of 33.42% [3]. - Some industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and defense and military had mixed performances, with some showing daily declines but positive long - term trends [3]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: Crude oil futures (NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent) had small daily increases but year - to - date declines. Natural gas prices were mostly down, with NYMEX natural gas having a daily decline of 5.14% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver had significant year - to - date increases, with COMEX gold up 53.85% year - to - date [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals showed positive long - term trends, but some had daily fluctuations [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products had diverse performances. For example, CBOT soybeans had a year - to - date increase of 1.96%, while ICE 2 - cotton had a year - to - date decline of 5.03% [3]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe had a significant daily decline of 50.38% [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to show positive trends, with silver having a year - to - date increase of 49.52% [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper, tin, and other metals had positive price movements, while some like alumina had a weak fundamental situation [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most black building materials showed a mixed performance, with some like iron ore having a positive year - to - date performance and others like silicon iron having a decline [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil had a year - to - date decline of 15.88%. Most chemical products showed a trend of price fluctuations and were in a state of supply - demand adjustment [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Some agricultural products like soybeans and peanuts had different price trends, with peanuts having a year - to - date decline of 2.83% [4]. 3.5 Market Outlook by Sector - **Financial**: Stock markets had a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures were expected to rise in a volatile manner, while bond futures were expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver were expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention was paid to the rate of freight price decline, and the container shipping route to Europe was expected to be volatile [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: A negative feedback was difficult to form, and the sector was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Supply disruptions continued to ferment, and most metals were expected to be volatile, with some like copper expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The crude oil market continued to be volatile, and the chemical market was mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [10]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, oilseeds and meal were hit. Most agricultural products were expected to be volatile [10].

COMEX黄金亦走强，最高升至3945.2美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 | < W | COMEX黄金 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | GC.CMX | | | | | | | | 3934.8 | | 昨结 | 3908.9 | 总手 | | 1.97万 | | | +25.9 | +0.66% 十篇 | | 3913.5 | 现手 | | 1 | | | 最高价 | 3945.2 | 搏 D | 0 | タ 香 | | 8793 | | | 最低价 | 3909.2 | 福 色 | -39.44万 | 内 盘 | | 1.09万 | | | 分时 | 五日 | EK | 間K | 月K | 日多 | (0) | | | 暨加 | | | | 均价:3926.6 | | | | | 3945.2 | | | | 0.93% | 3934.7 | | 4 | | | | | | | 3934.4 | | 6 | | | | | | | 19:18 3933.6 | | 1 | | | | | | | 19:1 ...

美联储9月宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。在议息会议上，由美国总 统特朗普提名、刚刚出任美联储理事的白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰投了唯一反对票，他认为降息幅度 应该达到50个基点。 据证券时报消息，10月6日，由于美国政府持续"关门"带来的不确定性加剧以及降息预期升温，现货黄 金开盘走强，一度涨近1%，最高升至3920.77美元/盎司，再创历史新高；此时距离首次突破3800美元关 口仅不到10天，年内累计涨幅已达49%。(备注：美国联邦政府自2025年10月1日起因医保补贴分歧和国 会程序规则陷入停摆，这是自2018年以来的首次政府全面关门) COMEX黄金亦走强，最高升至3945.2美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 | < W | COMEX黄金 | | | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | GC.CMX | | | | | | | 3934.8 | | 昨结 | 3908.9 | 总手 | | 1.97万 | | +25.9 | +0.66% 7 | | 3913.5 | 现手 | | 1 | | ...

Group 1 - Silver prices surged to a 14-year high, exceeding $46 per ounce, with a six-month increase of over 30%. Platinum also saw a significant rise, breaking through $1500 per ounce, marking a 12-year high. This surge is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical risks [2][4][12] - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for four consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%. Analysts suggest there is still room for further rate cuts within the year, potentially leading to lower mortgage rates [2][4] - The first batch of new floating-rate funds has shown impressive performance, with 23 out of 26 funds achieving positive returns since inception, and three funds exceeding a 40% return rate. The performance differences are attributed to various factors including benchmarks and fund manager capabilities [2][4] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing high valuations, as noted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who indicated that stock prices appear overvalued based on several metrics. However, he did not signal any imminent interest rate cuts, which disappointed the market [5][19] - Recent data indicates a mixed performance in global stock markets, with Chinese indices showing gains while U.S. indices experienced declines. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell by 1.57% [6][12] - In the bond market, the one-year Chinese government bond yield slightly decreased by 0.75 basis points, while the ten-year U.S. government bond yield rose by 6 basis points [8][9]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The report presents the performance of various commodities during different periods of the Fed's interest rate cuts, including COMEX gold, COMEX silver, ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI crude, INE crude, etc., showing the percentage changes of each commodity in different time - frames [1] Group 2: Commodity Performance Summary Precious Metals - COMEX gold had percentage changes ranging from - 11.39% to 36.80% in different Fed interest - rate cut periods, with a 0.28% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - COMEX silver's changes were between - 24.98% and 10.73%, and it had a - 5.72% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] Energy - ICE Brent's percentage changes were from - 39.88% to 22.16%, with a - 0.07% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - NYMEX WTI crude's changes were between - 45.66% and 18.86%, and it had a - 5.24% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - INE crude had a 5.38% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] Base Metals - LME copper's percentage changes were from - 59.75% to 1.49%, with a 0.31% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - LME aluminum had a - 1.84% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - SHFE aluminum's changes varied, and one of the SHFE aluminum had a 3.96% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] Agricultural Products - CBOT soybeans' percentage changes were from - 11.45% to 18.77%, with a - 0.98% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - CBOT wheat's changes were between - 29.63% and 17.72%, and it had a - 2.37% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - CBOT corn's changes were from - 5.53% to 25.35%, with a - 1.39% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] Others - CRB industrial spot's percentage changes were from - 36.13% to 1.06%, with a - 2.14% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - CRB composite spot's changes were between - 27.20% and 11.97%, and it had a 0.82% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - Nanhua Commodity Index had a 2.69% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1]

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 ter ax 9 关注微信公众号 | 历次美联储降息期间大宗商品表现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 检资咨询事务资格:证监许可 2011 1292号 2025年9月18日 | | | | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 大宗商品品种 | 1990年12月19日- 1995年07月06日- 1998年09月29日- 2001年01月03日 | | | | 2007年09月18日- | 2019年08月01日- | 2020年03月03日- | 2024年9月19日- | | | 1992年09月04日 | 1996年01月31日 | 1998年11月17日 | 2003年01月24日 | 2008年12月16日 | 2019年10月31日 | 2020年03月16日 | 2024年12月19日 | | COMEX 黄金 | -11. 39% | 6. 05% | -0. 67% | 36. 80% | 16. 44% | 3. 97% ...

Economic Data - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of better-than-expected growth[4] - US manufacturing output in August rose by 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations[4] - The US import price index unexpectedly increased by 0.3% month-on-month in August[4] Market Trends - The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 3.15 basis points to 3.495%[4] - The 5-year US Treasury yield decreased by 1.56 basis points to 3.585%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 0.58 basis points to 4.028%[4] Stock Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 22,333.96, down 0.07%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,757.90, down 0.27%[6] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,606.76, down 0.13%[6] Commodity Prices - ICE Brent crude oil rose by 1.56% to $68.49[6] - CME Bitcoin futures increased by 1.43% to $117,230.00[6] - London gold spot price rose by 0.29% to $3,689.59[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, particularly following the release of the August CPI data, which has led to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4% for the first time since April 7 [2][4] - The expectation for a rate cut has been building since the June FOMC meeting, which indicated two potential cuts within the year, with August being a critical month for this development [4] - Market discussions are ongoing regarding whether the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis points (bp) or 50 bp cut, with a higher expectation for a 25 bp cut in September [4][5] Group 2 - Key economic indicators leading up to the anticipated rate cut include: 1. August non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations but showing a downward revision in previous values [5] 2. CPI remaining flat and below expectations, while PPI exceeded expectations [5] 3. Comments from Powell regarding "employment and inflation rebalancing" being interpreted as a hint towards a rate cut [5] 4. Continued decline in non-farm employment numbers and rising unemployment claims, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3% [6][7] Group 3 - Historical analysis of asset price movements following rate cuts indicates that: 1. U.S. Treasury yields and term spreads tend to show a narrowing in short-term declines, with steepening term spreads and even increases in long-term yields [13] 2. Equity and commodity assets generally maintain upward trends or exhibit more positive momentum post-rate cuts [13] - The article provides a comparative analysis of asset performance before and after previous rate cuts, highlighting trends in various indices and commodities [14][16] Group 4 - The current market sentiment reflects a strong consensus on the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with risk assets already adjusting to expectations of liquidity easing [15] - The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate trajectory is crucial for multi-asset allocation, as it influences the outlook for various macroeconomic factors [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

来源：洪言微语 大宗商品方面，COMEX黄金受美联储降息预期及地缘政治风险推动上涨3.52%收于3639.8美元/盎司， 并带动A股和港股贵金属板块领涨；ICE布油则因全球经济增长放缓预期小幅下跌2.68%收于65.67美元/ 桶。 A股市场本周出现本轮行情以来第一次较为持续的调整，高位科技股短期获利了结压力显现，科创板跌 幅靠前。全周来看，上证指数下跌1.18%，收于3812.51点；深证成指下跌0.83%；受新能源行情支撑， 创业板指逆势收涨2.35%；而因AI算力、光模块等前期涨幅较大板块出现回调，科创50指数大幅下跌 5.42%。 交投活跃度方面，全周A股成交额13.02万亿元，日均成交2.60万亿元，环比下降12.8%；两融余额较上 周减少约800亿元，至2.16万亿元，显示杠杆资金正在高位板块进行获利了结。不过创业板指成交额占 比提升至31.3%，反映资金仍向成长赛道集中。 本周全球股市呈现"科技股领涨、A股成长板块分化、港股南向资金推动估值修复"的格局。全球流动性 宽松预期成为影响风险偏好的核心逻辑，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率已达99.4%，叠加贵金属板块 受避险需求驱动大幅上涨，市场结构性 ...