每日经济新闻 黄金基金ETF（518800）昨日净流入超0.6亿元。 华鑫证券指出，6月美国非农就业人数超预期主要依靠政府部门新增就业，私人部门增长疲弱且薪资增 速低于预期，显示经济并非强劲。市场对7月降息的预期消退，目前押注9月降息。短期黄金价格或将以 震荡消化利空为主，但长期在美联储降息周期背景下仍持续看好。数据显示，美国6月失业率4.1%优于 预期，ISM非制造业指数50.8回升至荣枯线上方。从CME FedWatch工具来看，美联储年内仍有两次 25BP的降息预期，其中9月降息概率达66.2%。分析师认为，虽然短期金价受非农数据扰动，但美联储 仍处于降息周期，黄金将维持上涨走势。 黄金基金ETF跟踪的是黄金现货（Au99.99合约），该合约由上海黄金交易所发行，代表纯度为99.99% 的实物黄金价格。与基于成分股的投资产品不同，该ETF直接挂钩实物黄金的市场表现，能够准确反映 黄金价格的实时波动。作为兼具投资与避险功能的金融工具，黄金现货（Au99.99合约）受到商业银 行、保险公司及个人投资者的广泛关注与青睐。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预 ...

没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰黄金ETF联接A（000218），国泰黄金ETF联接C（004253）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 华源证券表示，长期来看，"降息交易"+"特朗普2.0"双主线将在2025年持续催化，保护主义+大国博弈 背景下，央行增储将对金价形成强有力底部支撑，金价上行动能充足。美国就业市场与经济运行仍存在 较强韧性。美联储本轮降息周期的时间或被就业韧性和通胀扰动拉长，但仍具备较大政策空间，增加了 黄金的做多窗口期。"特朗普2.0"进入逐步兑现阶段，"大而美"法案的签署以及未来对关税和地缘政治 的干预或进一步导致美元信用降低和通胀上行，若竞选承诺全部兑现，或将金价持续推向新高。 央行增储方面，根据世界黄金协会发布的年度黄金需求趋势报告，2024年全球黄金需求达到4974吨，较 2023年的4899 ...

Group 1 - The core logic of the gold analysis framework is to hedge against the credit risk of the US dollar, indicating that gold may still have significant allocation value in the medium to long term [1] - The US dollar index has declined from a high of 109 at the beginning of the year to around 98 currently, reflecting a decrease in market confidence in the dollar [1] - Trump's policies have disrupted the internal checks and balances in the US, including his comments on the independence of the Federal Reserve and policies that may lead to fiscal expansion, which have increased overall uncertainty regarding the dollar's credit [1] Group 2 - The gold ETF tracks the spot gold (Au99.99 contract) launched by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, representing high-purity gold with a content of no less than 99.99% [1] - Unlike traditional stock indices, the gold contract does not involve stock selection or industry allocation, primarily serving physical gold delivery and investment hedging needs [1]

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 黄金基金ETF跟踪的是黄金现货（Au99.99合约），该合约由上海黄金交易所发行，代表了纯度不低于 99.99%的黄金交易品种。黄金现货（Au99.99合约）直接反映了实物黄金的价格变动，不涉及成分股或 行业风格配置，主要为投资者提供参与贵金属市场的投资渠道。 消息面上，2025年6月25日，工业和信息化部等九部门联合印发《黄金产业高质量发展实施方案（2025 —2027年）》，提出到2027年实现黄金资源量增长5%至10%、产量提升5%以上，并推动高端新材料应 用和绿色矿山建设。同日现货黄金订单流数据显示短线供需失衡，技术面或形成支撑。 中信建投指出，近期伊以冲突停火降低风险偏好，5月黄金需求下滑压制黄金价格表现。但实际利率和 美元指数下行，中长期依然看多黄金。黄金VIX ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments in China have jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry (2025-2027)", aiming for a 5%-10% increase in gold resource volume and over 5% in production by 2027 [1] - The Myanmar Gold Traders Association held a seminar on June 29 to discuss key areas such as legal trading channels, domestic gold price mechanisms, and international trade [1] - China has maintained its position as the world's largest producer of mined gold for 18 consecutive years and the largest consumer for 12 years, highlighting the industry's foundational advantages [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities noted that the long-term logic for gold remains intact, with weakening dollar credit expected due to U.S. fiscal issues and trade tensions under the Trump administration, which may further impact government credit [1] - Geopolitical issues abroad continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, suggesting that gold prices may continue to rise [1] - Global central banks have continued their gold purchasing pace, with 243.7 tons bought in Q1 2025, providing support for gold prices [1] Group 3 - Current gold holdings are at a low level, with SPDR Gold ETF holdings not keeping pace with gold price increases, indicating significant upward potential [1] - In the silver market, a supply-demand gap is expected to persist throughout the year, and during a loose monetary cycle, the gold-silver ratio is likely to converge, suggesting that silver may enter a phase of catch-up [1]